September 29th, 2013, 15:30
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(September 29th, 2013, 15:24)Gaspar Wrote: The other two obvious flaws here are:
1. Its week 4. In 6 weeks, Ray Rice or CJ2K could have broken arms and Pierce or Shonn Greene could be great value.
2. Evaluate process, not results. I think ultimately you could have gotten them later.
Anyway, not saying it necessarily was the right choice. But it isn't as black and white as they're outscoring Michael Floyd.
On the point of #2, I could have gotten them with my Bryce Brown pick AKA 6 picks later, but 2 defenses went in the round right after, so I could not have delayed picking them for more than one round.
I don't see why the first is any less of a crapshoot than picking a defense, as you are counting on one of two specific players to get an injury that keeps them out for a while, plus their backups to perform well. Not to mention that backups like Pierce, Greene and so on are frequently dropped to make room for FA snags, hence you can pick up a guy like Bernard Pierce on the wire pretty easily.
While it certainly could end up that the Seahawks suck the rest of the year and/or a major injury forces one of the later picks to be worthwhile, so far the process has been shown by the results. I've long been of the opinion to never reach for a defense and take them only when they'd be expected to be picked later: If you don't get anyone, wait until the end, but if you get someone like the Seahawks or Texans in the 9th, the value of the reward outweighs the downside of the risk. I've followed it for 3 years and it's worked pretty well (Probably something like a 50% playoff rate).
It's funny because this is also the only league I have the Seahawks in. :P
September 29th, 2013, 15:31
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(September 29th, 2013, 15:23)pindicator Wrote: Picking Defenses is a crapshoot. You're counting on the production of 11 people, not to mention special teams. That's why they're the most variable, aside from kickers.
Kickers are usually a bad pick because the #1 kicker doesn't have a huge difference from, say, the #10 kicker, so it's rarely worthwhile in terms of point differential. (For example, the difference between the #1 kicker and #10 kicker right now, well #9 thanks to ties, is 11 points).
September 29th, 2013, 15:32
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And the Seahawks win 23-20! Hells yeah.
September 29th, 2013, 15:49
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Glad to see the Bills also managed to hang on. Flacco ended up with a 50% completion % and 5 INTs! Though I presume the last one was a hail mary or something...
September 29th, 2013, 15:50
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Trinton Holliday sure can fly-a-day!
September 29th, 2013, 15:50
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(September 29th, 2013, 15:49)Kuro Wrote: Though I presume the last one was a hail mary or something...
Nope. Just another bad throw.
Still, for 5 Ints, you'd think that Bills would've won by more than 3, and their D/ST would've scored more than 14.
September 29th, 2013, 15:55
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(September 29th, 2013, 15:50)Cyneheard Wrote: (September 29th, 2013, 15:49)Kuro Wrote: Though I presume the last one was a hail mary or something...
Nope. Just another bad throw.
Still, for 5 Ints, you'd think that Bills would've won by more than 3, and their D/ST would've scored more than 14.
The Bills defense is REALLY bad.
You would have thought at some point they decide to stop having Flacco throw, given it gave them 5 INTs and the defense was so bad...couldn't have been too much more damaging than Flacco's interceptions.
September 29th, 2013, 15:56
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So, I hope nobody picked the Redskins as a sleeper playoff team this year...
September 29th, 2013, 16:13
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The Redskins defense making a good play? Call the cops!
September 29th, 2013, 16:19
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Bryce Brown slips to stop himself from scoring a TD.
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