[Spoiler] RB Pitboss #2 - Shaka of Rome

[LiPing]

I realize that, but... I can't simply defend from the town, the problem is that their warrior will not actually attack the town, but will do something like, for example, plonk their guy near me so that I will have to attack it at bad odds later -

Me: SE, Them: N, Me: N, Them: NE, Me: Hold, Them: E, Me: E, Them: S, Me: S, Them: E

And at that point I now have 30.3% or less to clearly 'win' 15H compared to 68.1%. I understand that I may look like a lunatic, but I'm trying to get them to go for it because I feel it's my option that leaves me the most undamaged, and doesn't involve any backstabbing, so I'm trying to give them pot-odds (or apparant pot-odds) to make them 'call' me, I may lose the game, but I can't feel I did any "wrong" play in the process.

And they can actually force the issue - Me: SE, Them: SE, Me: S, Them: SE, and then I HAVE to attack or it's infinitely worse.

I do have the odds on it anyway; a 68.1% chance of crippling them, and this seems really the best odds I can get, and if I need to take it, I rather have it as soon as possible, and as close to them as possible, since if I win, the nearer I am to their capital, the more potential damage I can do and the worse a build I could force them into, depending.

Also it's kind of amusing, if I had double-moved like the other people had wanted earlier, I'd have been on the hill before them and this might not have come up at all

Personally also, I consider their negotiation rather unreasonable - ("This is our land now go away and/or sign huge treaty benefitting us, thanks")

[Jabah]

Well, the 'advantage' of going back into your city would have to force them to show their cards, either they want to gamble (declare and go next to the city) or they don't and you have time to either build an extra warrior or trust them for a longer time (subject to new discussion where you are not in an immediat elimination position).

In fact it might have been better to do this:
move NW of your city, your borders pop.
If they really want to declare war:
- either they declare war next turn by moving SE or E, where you can attack them on flat ground at 68%.
- or they try to go for cover along the forrests N, and when they declare war in 2t by moving on your forrest NNW of city, you move the warrior W in the forrest NW of city, forcing them either to attack at very bad odds or to go onto the flat NW of city where you still can either attack at 68% of retreat in city.

[LiPing]

Doesn't work -
1) they go NE, then I go N, then they go SE, same roll, but two turns further away from me.
2) from N, N, NW of the city, they go SE to the gold plains hill, then I have the forced move of going to the forest N, and then we get that position I didn't want (well, they can force that position in any case, but I'm hoping they won't see it or think of it)

I will at least get some scouting out of this move, if I am not dead
Yes, the disadvantage is that I have to declare, but I'm trying to negotiate that one away by offering incentives for THEM to declare...

Maybe I should explain how I'm thinking of the board - As I see it, I have two 'sure lose' positions, and one 'marginally lose' position.
The first of the sure lose positions, is if the Korean warrior is standing on the deer tile.
The second is if the Korean warrior is standing on the forest north of the city.
The marginally lose position is with the Korean warrior on the gold tile.
(also, there is the sure lose position of having no warrior also, but we know that, and it will be a quick one rather than a slow and lingering one )

[LiPing]

Oh, just in case, please don't feel that I'm outright dismissing your view, I am finding it an interesting discussion.

[Jabah]

No problem with the discussion, in fact, I still have options.

T0. You go SW (next to city)

T1. They go NE - you fortify (so you even have better odds)

T2. They go E (declare on forrest) -> you go E to prevent them to have a 'bonus' way to the city.

T3. Then either :
1. they go S on flat, you attack at 68% odd
2. they try to go around the lake (bad idea for them, it takes ages and they still willhave to be on a flat tile before doing anything)
3. they go SW (to go for the hill), you go SW to the hill and then it is the same situation, they can't go closer without being on flat, or they go back NE and you do the same.

In any case you will have a 68% odd at some point, and in the 'best' case, you delay long enough to have a 2nd warrior to cover or finish the job.

edit as well - the bast case in fact might be that they don't want to tkae any risk and don't declare while not even signing a long NAP (if that is what you wanted

[LiPing]

T0 - SE, right?
T3 - they go E onto the gold and fortify, now I need 3 of warriors to clear it
#2 I agree is a very bad idea, I will just take back the gold tile and follow them along the opposite bank until another guy comes out, and now they're way out of position and their capital is more open...

Re: Edit: Well, yes, that is also acceptable to me, but I've already offered one of 60T (although this is a rather 'useless' length, but having said that I think NAP are useless pieces of paper anyway, not because I intend to violate it, but because it doesn't really serve the intended purpose in this situation, it's more like 'military buildup pact'), as it were, but I'll be content with any situation that don't involve me interrupting my worker, and doesn't have them camping outside on my losing tile

But I also have a fairly big problem ([edit: was due to the Korea team posting thoughts on our negotiation and what they thought in the wrong thread, and I saw it]) though, that I've been trying to think out and failing miserably, it's quite frustrating and having accidentally seen it, I am really hoping they do just take the flip, because it's very hard trying to imagine playing as normal now with negotiation should they want the NAP... I am not really sure what I should do with that now, if it would be better to ask for sub or what... although I don't think anyone would want this position anyway, and that would be kind of ugly to ask for sub on t6-t7.

[Jabah]

If they go on the gold and fortify, then go build more warrior and go for their capital and let them be happy on the gold, you probably can outproduct them thanks to the deer.

From their point of view, fortifying on gold make no (immediat) sense, either they accept the coin flip, or they accept peace.

Regarding the 'spoiler', it is unfortunate, but I don't think it is game breaking as Broker didn't really give much more than the 'result' of the discussion.
[it would have been seriously spoilerish if he had written anything like 'I intend to sign and back stab' or 'No way I am accepting it']

[LiPing]

In that case, I would have to hope I can even find that capital , maybe they gave me poor directions. I suppose I can think about that if we get there. It'll be quite painful too, just a mutually assured destruction, I think, or I can throw two at it and hope they clear (which might be acceptable risk, actually)
But... I find this very interesting, I seem to be prioritizing the gold square a lot, and you are saying it is no good , I'd appreciate knowing, why do you think it's bad?

Well... the result was wrong anyway, in regards to what I agreed / what I think, he took for granted that I agree he has right to the land -_- and that he should likely plan to attack me after it ends, because he thinks I am unreliable... okay, so that is my fault, but yeah... hurrrh, stupid thing.

[novice]

Well, I actually think you should feel free to use any information you may have gleamed. You can't unlearn it anyway, and it's not your fault that Broker publicized spoiler information. Also, how sure can you be that you interpreted what you read correctly? You must have stopped reading as soon as you realized what you were reading, and things are easily misunderstood out of context. (Actually, reading rbp1, diplomacy messages are easily misunderstood in context). If you are a bit doubtful now, that doubt will increase with time. So all in all probably not a big deal.

[Jabah]

Don't get me wrong, the gold is indeed very nice, but short term you are not going to improve it and work it anyway. So if they wanted to 'choke' you, the deer is by far a much better place.