Record: 20-16-0
2 Weeks Ago: 2-4-0
Last Week: N/A (Did not manage to get predictions out)
The last predictions turned into my first sub-.500 week, but I am keeping a 20-16-0 record into this week, which provides me a cushion to bounce back before I plunge into the depths of .500 play! Let's try and get this week sorted out.
For this week, I have decided to move the point spread on any matchup with a team having a large number of inactives (3+) to even, due to the fact that it simply was ridiculous (Sir Bruce, because he has not changed his lineup yet, is getting +46! Though given it looks like he is dead...)
The Pony Express (Kuro, EVEN, 4-3-0) vs. Team Scooter (Scooter, 6-1-0)
The Pony Express is looking nice this week, as Frank Gore and Lynch, already Top 5 caliber RBs (Okay, Gore is 6th by a decent margin), faces off against the 29th and 30th ranked fantasy Ds vs. the run, meaning they should shred up some points. This is combined with Eric Decker, coming off a huge game, going into the anemic Washington Redskins D. And the 'Hawks face a Rams offense minus Sam Bradford, offering up an excellent chance for some points. Even Kris Durham, who is getting a healthy amount of targets, looks to beat out his prediction in a Dallas shootout.
More questionable are Andy Dalton, the best bye week fill-in for Luck, and Justin Blackmon, who will be slamming into the tough San Francisco D...though if the Jags offense doesn't get it going early, there will probably be garbage time galore here. But Zach Miller is the biggest weak link, as the fill in for a resurgant Antonio Gates is pretty iffy, even moreso than most TEs.
Scooter's roster already has some nice guys with nice matchups, especially Moreno and Bush who could match Lynch and Gore, but if Freeman performs like he did last week then no matchup will save him...but it turns out Christian Ponder is starting this week, so there is hope! And yes, I like Ponder, which is why I'm confused the Vikes went after Freeman and not a team that needs a young QB (Like the Cardinals or the Jaguars). Jordan Reed is looking like a T10 TE and Newton, who has been largely trending upwards, should continue this week...Amendola even looks on track to be back this week and give him a good bye week wideout, although the Dolphins actually hold down WR points well. However, Scooter basically does not own a flex option due to a very poor bench, which really hurts him...not to mention both of his defenses aren't looking good this week, with largely poor streaming options (Though I bet the Raiders D/ST outscores all of his).
With the matchup set to EVEN, I gotta take who I think will win, and that's The Pony Express.
Compared to Scooter, who got +21 because he only had 6 players active, Gaspar is getting +20. And in this battle, we have a fight between two teams trending downwards and doing little to stop it.
Gaspar's week essentially rides on two players: Michael Vick and Julius Thomas, high end players in excellent matchups who could explode for a lot of points, but aside from that everything else is pretty poor. Cobb is out until Week 15, so he's utilizing a tandem of Cecil Shorts and Dwayne Bowe: Shorts isn't actually that bad, although he does face the Niners...but like Blackmon, could see some good garbage time. Bowe, however, has been anemic, averaging 5.4 PPG and will likely be shadowed by Joe Haden, meaning that he is a bit boned. Or Bowned, if you will. Ivory is coming off a good game, but he has been erratic, Bilial can steal touches at any time and is facing a good Bengals run D...Ivory's YPC probably needs a TD this game, and Peyton Hillis is essentially TD-or-bust. Emmanuel Sanders basically had one good week and isn't a good fantasy play and the Bucs are a poor D not facing someone like the Jags.
The Lewd Lobbers, while not in a great position overall, are in a great position for this match, as DeSean Jackson means Vick is partially countered and Colston is facing a near perfect matchup, especially if Graham has to sit. And Randle is facing the awful Eagles D while being a good Eli target...how often do you have a guy face the worst and second worse Fantasy Ds at a position the same week! Combined with Eddie Lacy in an amazing matchup, and showing his stuff hardcore, and Gonzo facing the horrible Rams TE D, I predict a blowout.
Pick: Beijing Lewd Lobbers (-20)
Team Bruce (Sir Bruce, +11, 4-3-0) vs. Noble Nitpickers (NobleHelium, 4-3-0)
And now these get a bit smaller, because game time is in 30 minutes! Also, Bruce switched in everyone but his kicker, so he is not worthy of a spread.
NH has a very nice thing going on this week, as Steve Smith, while not being consistant, gets Tampa on tappa this week, Lamar against NE looks nice although S-Jax, assuming he plays, could be a bit hobbled. Terrance Williams, who has gotten lots of targets and done well with them, and Vernon Davis look great and Stafford should shred the weak Dallas D, not to mention the Steelers facing a decent mU...though potentially not great. Also, A.J. Green.
Bruce has some nice guys too: Rodgers against the Vikings? Yes please! McFadden also has a nice matchup, as the Steelers have been pretty bad against the run. They improved the last two weeks, but the Ravens run game has been terrible anyway and the Jets run game isn't great either. Boldin and Tate are both very inconsistant, but Garcon is always getting targets and Gronk is getting a ton of points...though Bilal Powell could be iffy if he DOESN'T get his time, who can say, and I don't trust the Pats D entirely given they have been bad against the run and the Dolphins have a fairly decent upside run game.
I like NH more this week, but it is certainly close, and my confidence is low in picking.
Pick: Noble Nitpickers (-11)
Portland Pindis (-2, 4-3, Pindicator) vs. Stamford Cyberams (5-2-0, David Coperial)
RGIII against the Broncos? Excellent, excellent! In fact, if you take away his Flex position, basically everything is nice here, with the Browns D/ST being iffy. Bht the wideouts are amazing, Ridley gets a run free D, LeSean McCoy vs. the Giants is a slaughter! Rudolph, with Ponder in, is a good play.
The Cyberams are also weak in the Flex position, needing to throw out a Kimbrell Thompkins that seems to be losing his place, but Jordan Cameron is also facing the #1 TE defense (They have yet to allow a touchdown) and with Jason Campbell just getting in, even if I think Campbell will prove better than Weeden after 2 weeks or so. Nicks is proving poor even in the best matchups, Gordon gets a hard break and Green-Ellis against a good run D isn't kosher. Even with Peyton vs. the Redskins D, which could lead to a 40 point day, I can't take it against the overall roster of Pindicator this week.
Pick: Portland Pindis (-2)
Bench Brady And... (Sunrise, -6, 2-5-0) vs. Baltimore Blue Jays (Cyneheard, 4-3-0)
Sunrise has the disappointment that it sounds like DeMarco Murray sounding like he has a good chance to play, which would mean running out McGahee or Helu...and I'd honestly pick Helu: Alfred Morris will be the lead rusher, but the Redskins will likely play a shootout, and Helu plays in those formations, so it is highly likely Helu racks up points, while McGahee sucks and is facing the Chiefs, so he has very limited upside. Cruz hasn't scored double digits in 3 games and did not against the Eagles earlier this year, but Boykins does look pretty nice. Matt Ryan looks good again this week, though.
But Cyneheard DOES have Drew Brees against the Bills, which is a horrible, horrible mismatch. Antonio Brown is the one good Pittsburgh wideout and Demaryius against the Redskins is great. Fauria is boom or bust, but Dallas at least provides a good place for it, and Moore has been consistant. Having to do Ellington + DeAngelo could spell doom, but Ellington should get more touches this week and DeAngelo seems solid to get a lower end point score, just without a higher end upside. With the Saints D/ST vs. the busted Bills, the +6 makes this appealing enough.
Pick: Baltimore Blue Jays (+6)
The Fox Says It's Tuel Time (Wetbandit, -27, 4-3-0) vs. Norfolk and Chance (Twinkletoes, 2-5-0)
Wetbandit is starting 6 top 10 scoring players this week, assuming every questionable plays. Twinkletoes is starting 2 top 10 scorers...his defense and kicker and is counting on a Tolbert TD. Seems like a mismatch, though as absurd as it sounds I could actually see Norfolk covering just on V-Jax, the Chiefs D/ST and Gostkowski. He needs MJD and Fitzgerald to go good to have a chance, but Tuel Time is now.
