WW29: Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

[Lewwyn]

Novice: Goreripper's post #61 is the one that is awkward IMO. When I read it I was like what? And Rowain also picked up on it and challenged it. Goreripper's posts after that seemed to be trying to salvage what was a bad comment about Night 0 being helpful. Night 0 can be helpful but not for the reasons he initially chose.

His first post after Rowain's death is also a bit forced. Feel's like he's scrambling, but I don't think that's fully a scum tell.

The post after that post is his Zak post which comes out of nowhere. That rings my bell. There is no prompting, it is one line, and it is just so odd. Could he be buddying up? Could he be trying to help Zak? Is this a case of reverse distancing where Goreripper says "a wolf would never do that"?

[Goreripper]

Zakalwe chatting a lot at night gives him a town lean to me. He got killed very early last game so he seems like a town who wants to contribute fast before he dies this time.

Possibly. It's also possible he wanted to feel out the village for the right night kill.
Why are you in a rush to state this? And why is it in its own little post??

I had the thought during the night but the last thing we want to do is clear a strong town during the night. Like you said if Zakalwe looked like a strong town then he was probably top target.

The post after that post is his Zak post which comes out of nowhere. That rings my bell. There is no prompting, it is one line, and it is just so odd. Could he be buddying up? Could he be trying to help Zak? Is this a case of reverse distancing where Goreripper says "a wolf would never do that"? Could he think that Zakalwe is a fellow town and does not want to see him mislynched?

I think you left out one of the possibilities. Its the last one there.

I think the word you are looking for after Rowains death is not forced. It is annoyed. He tosses a dark look but does not make a clear case.

My town lean on Zakalwe aside I would like to hear his thoughts on Jkaen. And I would like to hear some sober thoughts from Jkaen too when he can he is the other guy attacking the lynchbait.

But I want to hear from Serdoa even more.

[Lewwyn]

I'd thank you not to put words in my mouth. That was not one of the options because there was only one vote on Zak and there wasn't even a case or any kind of wagon on him when you made that post. The fact that you felt so compelled to try and either protect him or buddy him unprompted only 30 minutes into the day is scummy to me.

I think the word I was looking for was the one I used, forced.

I have my own opinion on what Jkaen was attempting to accomplish last night, but I'd rather wait to hear his argument before I say what that is. I don't want to speak for him.

[novice]

Goreripper, when did you decide that Zak was likely town?

[Meiz]

Rowain was the one questioning GoreRipper, and now he's dead. GoreRipper had a motive to kill Rowain first, and Rowain must have sensed it since he pointed his suspicions at GoreRipper just before the night ended. Looks quite bad for GoreRipper, obviously enchanced by the fact that Rowain called him out, but scum couldn't have known that Rowain would call both his death and his killer.

Agreed. Rowain was prodding GoreRipper and it was obvious that he would not forget about it on next day. I doubt scum had time to react to Rowain's "no.1 suspect" post, so the timing of his death seems perfect for GoreRipper.

There is also motivation for both Zak and novice. Rowain has genuine issues with them being together in a game, and is likely to attack either one. So it would not only be Zak being angry about the last game.

I do not get this whole motive thing. Rowain was questioning me some. That is perfectly fair and I think I responded to his actual questions that were asked. I wish he had been able to actually make a case but as it is all we got was a bad feeling. I agree the last game upset Zakalwe like I said it is why I think he was so talkative last night. But I also would question any motivation cases on Zakalwe here.

More useful is a look at general principles. Why is would they want to kill Rowain? Probably not to frame anybody it is too early for that but hey it might be a nice side effect for them. More likely it was because he was an active player who was less likely to be protected than his listed four scary names. Or else he looked cleared to them but he did not seem amazingly town in particular. Only conclusion I have from that is that the mafia are sane but that only clears MJW.

While there are plenty of reasons for the kill (Rowain simply being active and good villager), there's no denying that you wouldn't have motivation to kill him as scum.

Are you saying that suspecting Zak for having a motivation to kill Rowain is something we should ignore? Why?

kill a target that is a good kill anyway

If he was a good kill anyway (I agree that he was, because he was active and not scummy) then his death hardly implicates me. I don't think it does much to implicate Goreripper, either. He did suspect MJW earlier in the day, though, so if you're so eager to pursue this line of thought you shouldn't overlook that.

Same question to Zak. I get that if you're villager, you don't see the implication for yourself. But why do you think suspecting GoreRipper on having the motivation is something we should ignore?


----

Other than that, I really like what Lewwyn has contributed so far. Especially his accusation on Zak here (my underlining):

I am not trying to say we should lynch zak because he lived through the night. My suspicion of him rests entirely with zak saying he was interested in jkaen's theory and that he was going to think about it when in fact that theory was completely, completely ridiculous. Village zak would have shot it down. Scum zak doesn't want to hinder a Jkaen on MJW crusade. Village zak also knows that MJW is ridiculous and prone to the exact stream of conscious thought posts and meta posts that MJW made at the beginning of the game.

Zakalwe

I'm also getting villager vibes from Jowy and MJW.

[Jkaen]

Ok, will touch on some of the big subjects first:

1. Talk or not at night 1 I don't really see as giving anybody a tell as both sides had reasonable arguments.
2. Zak suggesting we change the win condition is not a scum tell
3. Rowain is a good, active villager who was not likely to be protected, I am not sure it really needs to be more complex than that for night 1
4. My case on MJW was effectively shot down as far as I was concerned by Meiz in post 44. I left it up there to fish on tells, which i will cover in a post soon.
5. I should touch on my read of zak first however. last night i felt he was far more involved in the herding etc than i have seen for a while and thought he was the person most out of character. However this morning i recalled the last few games he seems to keep getting scum, so zak finally getting villager and wanting to really make an effort on it doesn't seem so crazy to me anymore.

For now Serdoa gets my vote for a weak MJW vote last night

[Serdoa]

I would defend, but I don't know against what. It's not like anyone asked a question, I just see sentiments that my case against MJW wasn't good. And it wasn't. What simply is for the fact that I had no much time and it was night regardless, so its not like the vote counts except for pointing my general disagreement out. I still believe that it is an obvious contradiction to state "don't talk at night" and then do it oneself, but he at least explained now that he sees a difference between his meta-talks and "real"-talk. I personally don't, because both lead to others talking as well.

And no, I'd like not to talk more about if night-talk on N0 of a game benefits scum or village. This is the first time I play that way so I have no experience to go on about that point. I explained that already. We can go in circles with that, but it won't change my opinion.

On another point: I won't have much time the next days. I have to take care of my wife who collapsed because of exhaustion on Friday last week. It probably still means I have more time for this game as I won't travel as planned to Vienna, but before I get voted just for making not as long cases as normally, that's the reason for that. Feel free to vote for me still if you don't like them, just don't expect pressure votes to do much.

[Jkaen]

Serdoa, are you not doing what you always accuse me of doing - voting for anti town play rather than scum play?

[zakalwe]

Sorry, I just realized that wasn't there. It's actually on my planning sheet, but got left out of the copy paste over when I made some edits.

Does this post not refer to the PMs being missing?

I think it refers to rule 18 being missing.

You suck brick for not posting the village PM. This may have been okay if you didn't expand in the PM but you did. I won't exploit your mistake but I will mock you.

he only adds info to his case once the scum PM is posted.

What are you getting at here? If he's scum he had access to the scum PM all along.

In his opening post he suggests that the villager post contains some sort of spoiler information, which i don't see as existing.

He later argues the case about PM info by talking about scum win condition.

My theory was he didnt notice the PMs if they were already there (given Bricks reaction i think they were not) and took a gamble that there would be something in the village PM he could claim he was refering to when questioned. That way he tries to get meta cleared which may have been the only way the thought likely to survive to the end

Ok, I need to think about that, but it doesn't sound entirely implausible, under the assumption that MJW actually thought the role PMs were missing (even if they weren't). The "default" counterargument is that he'd be likely to double-check for those role PMs before posting anything about it if he's scum.

The reason I didn't shoot this down was that one aspect of it made sense to me. First of all, I think MJW genuinely didn't notice the PMs in the opening post at first, and I think it's possible that could have happened even if he's scum. And he did make a very open-ended statement about what was in the village PM, which could be retrofitted to describe anything once the actual PM was posted (which he had to expect would happen). So if he wanted to make a bold gamble, the vague way that he phrased his claim about the PM made sense. Also, MJW has defeatist tendencies as scum, and is IMO more likely to make a potentially game-winning gambit if he feels the odds are stacked against him and thinks that's the only way to pull through. So based on this, I didn't think Jkaen's theory deserved to be dismissed out of hand.

On the other hand, I can clearly see that this theory is a bit "out there", in terms of moving parts, fancy play theorem, etc. And I did point this out immediately, i.e. in the very same post, by stating the default counterargument.

I also followed up shortly after with this, shooting down another accusation against MJW which didn't make sense to me:

I believe he stated that "no nighttalk" just because he thought that is what village would do while he himself talked regardless because he hoped to get everyone else to talk as well.

I don't think mafia would be particularly eager to get people talking on night 0. I think they'd be content to lurk through the night if the mood seemed to allow it.

So I wasn't trying to pave the way for a MJW wagon. I shot down the arguments that I disagreed with, but there were aspects of Jkaen's case that I didn't disagree with. As I said later:

And maybe MJW should explain what it was that Brick expanded on in the PMs.

It's a bit late for MJW to answer this, and I'm sure he could come up with something credible since Meiz already suggested an answer for him, but I just point it out to document my thought process.

My current feelings on MJW are that I dislike his insistence on the "no regrets" argument, and I also think it's pretty bad to vote for me because he can't think of any other reason why Rowain would be dead. Regarding the former - as alluded to in my last post, you don't really get the concept of fairness if you think it's something you should only invoke when it benefits you. So it's mostly for OMGUS reasons that I am tempted to vote for him. We know that he's good at staying in character, so to an extent he needs to be judged by his results rather than just his process. Disregarding the OMGUS angle, I still think the fancy play theorem points towards his "I don't want to exploit the missing PMs" move being a town tell, on balance. But I wouldn't call it a strong town tell, as noted above.

[Meiz]

You suck brick for not posting the village PM. This may have been okay if you didn't expand in the PM but you did. I won't exploit your mistake but I will mock you.

The reason I didn't shoot this down was that one aspect of it made sense to me. First of all, I think MJW genuinely didn't notice the PMs in the opening post at first, and I think it's possible that could have happened even if he's scum. And he did make a very open-ended statement about what was in the village PM, which could be retrofitted to describe anything once the actual PM was posted (which he had to expect would happen). So if he wanted to make a bold gamble, the vague way that he phrased his claim about the PM made sense. Also, MJW has defeatist tendencies as scum, and is IMO more likely to make a potentially game-winning gambit if he feels the odds are stacked against him and thinks that's the only way to pull through. So based on this, I didn't think Jkaen's theory deserved to be dismissed out of hand.

If scum-MJW didn't see the PM's, he would have no way of knowing that the villager PM had the "Abilities" - part. His comment is not open ended, but very specific. Not sure how you are not seeing that. Making the comment he did would be incredibly risky for a scum, and I really doubt he'd have gone for it.

Also what do you think about Brick's post http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid430592
It's meta but to me he seems genuinely annoyed at MJW, which wouldn't make sense if MJW was making a scum gambit.