WW29: Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

[novice]

My Goreripper vote is mostly a placeholder at this point. I like his responses so my only concern really is that he may be buddying me.

I don't know who to vote though. I sort of share Mattimeo's impulse to lynch MJW despite meta indicating his innocense.

Lewwyn (and Zak wrt Jkaen): What makes you lean town on Jowy and Jkaen? Is it "crackpot theories are crackpot" like Mattimeo says?

[zakalwe]

I like Jkaen's posts 116 and 141. Also, I can't deny that I was relieved he moved off me when it seemed like a very solid wagon was building and he hadn't even been required to justify his vote yet. Not sure why he would let me off so easily if he was scum.

Thanks for sharing your impulse about MJW, that's the kind of thing I like to hear and it actually mirrors my own feelings. It's not entirely rational, perhaps, but it's there.

[zakalwe]

Let's give Meiz a shot then. All he's done so far is defend MJW and attack me. Pretty "easy" play, for lack of a better word.

[zakalwe]

I would consider Mattimeo, also. Post #179 is ok, but he's not giving us much to go on. And it's perhaps a bit off that he posted a full player evaluation like that. It's a small game, but still.

[zakalwe]

He's got the same feeling about MJW, though... I guess I like what I'm seeing from him, but I really wish there would be more. As Lewwyn has been saying, hunting by elimination is really powerful in a small game, but he's kind of sabotaging that by lurking so hard.

[Meiz]

Now, since you insist on speculating about it, consider this. I had Rowain in my back pocket last game, while Lewwyn was the scum player who Rowain was actually on to. So maybe your highly trusted Lewwyn would have more to fear from Rowain? This isn't a strong argument against Lewwyn, but I'd say it's at least as good as your argument against me.

Fair enough. There's couple of reasons why I'm leaning town on Lewwyn though. Generally he's known to activate on day 2 and forward as town and scum as well. Here he posts regarding his internet issues, which would be a nice excuse to stay quiet. So it surprised me when he started making long posts with IMO genuine looking thought process & suspicions.

Novice seems to be lurking a bit. I'm not sure if that is his style. He's only true attack was against goreripper. He did vote serdoa for not posting and me for being inane but those attacks are weak. I think Zak is saying that he suspects novice for playing like a survivor. But that doesn't mean much as novice always plays like a survivor like in ww27 were Rowain explicitly said that novice deserved to get lynched because of that.

Having played against town-novice on WW16, his game there was very active and convincing. It's hard to do that on day 1 though. I'm not sure if novice has rolled a town role since that

How does Zak normally play, people? This is a normal game and therefore Zak should be playing normally if he is a villager? Is it normal for him to " not really pushing anyone, hedging my bets, and pulling my punches" at the start of the game before the shit really hits the fan? I usually just don't pay attention to the first days because someone almost always gets themselves killed rather then getting lynched in the games I've played. Zak also seems to be focused on being liked rather than wolf-hunting but that would be so easy to see incorrectly if he playing just like he says...

I'm not sure on this, Zak isn't known on tunneling hard on the first day. But not attacking anyone hard would be a good strategy for scum on day 1.

My personal innocent list based on day 1: Jowy, Lewwyn, MJW, Jkaen

Lewwyn I mentioned above. MJW's early meta seemed townish. I know this is bad, but this post by Jowy felt town, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid430918
I feel think scum would have continued to build up the case.
I liked how Jkaen reverted his case on MJW, and haven't really got any scum vibes from his posts.

Serdoa has valid reason for his quiet play, but I'm not ready to put him up to innocents, since the reasons would be valid regardless of his role. I'm willing to give him time, because his villager game is usually easy to recognize. I'm interested in hearing what specifically puts Serdoa on your innocent list, Lewwyn.

So I'm left with novice, Matt, Goreripper and zakalwe.

Looking at Matt's list, I found it interesting that he brushes off Zak for "Can't escape my mind that the argument seems specific enough to be one the scum lovingly crafted overnight to nab zak today, though", without going into anything specific.
Other than that, there's not much to go on. I share his view on GoreRipper.


novice started with a case against MJW and I thought his reasoning on #65 looked valid. He later reverted his stance on MJW on #102, which seemed townish as that's conclusion I came up as well. Other than that, he hasn't done much.


I felt GoreRipper "stating the obvious" a lot regarding his talk for the night actions, and regarding his talk about biases.
Side note, MJW's vote on GoreRipper based on not answering "how he came to RB" makes me think they are not on the scum team together. Reminded me that I'd like to ask from MJW what was the point of that vote.
His separate buddying up to Zakalwe might be on indication that they're not working together as scum.
Other than that, I thought his answers to novice were pretty good. Still the whole discussion seems pointless and doesn't help us catch the scum. Says Serdoa is strong as town, but is not willing to give him a chance to play.


Zakalwe spent a lot of words talking about the benefits of night talking, which I think is easy talk for scum.
I liked his answer regarding "encouraging Jkaen's crusade against MJW", http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid431039
But didn't like his follow up post, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid431045
I think Lewwyn was clear with his "I'm not saying X, but blah blah blah, so in conclusion X"., so I find it odd why Zak thought that as scummy. Lewwyn had just explained above why he doesn't think Zak surviving the night is a scum indication.

Zak also shots down the last argument with: "You really think I would go out of my way to get people talking, as scum?"
Why is that idea so ridiculous? Scum will try to appear like town, and that is exactly what people expect from town-Zak. So this statement doesn't make sense to me. It's not just a defense of yourself, but you seem to think that the idea doesn't make sense in general for scum.


Can someone point me to the novice tool?

[zakalwe]

I think Lewwyn was clear with his "I'm not saying X, but blah blah blah, so in conclusion X"., so I find it odd why Zak thought that as scummy. Lewwyn had just explained above why he doesn't think Zak surviving the night is a scum indication.

Lewwyn did spend a lot of words waffling on reasons why I might be suspicious but really not. That's what I didn't like. He could be town trying to back up his core argument with weaker circumstantial stuff because he really really believes in his core argument, or he could be scum trying to bait others into joining the wagon. Either way, I don't think it is a good way to argue. It's fine to say that you have a gut feeling in addition to your core argument, but I thought he was muddying the waters a bit much by mixing in a lot of bad arguments. Even if he dismisses them right away, those bad arguments are left hanging in the air and help to create an impression that there's a multitude of reasons to suspect me.

[zakalwe]

Mafia Helper is stickied in the Werewolf Archives.

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthread.php?tid=6349

[zakalwe]

Zak also shots down the last argument with: "You really think I would go out of my way to get people talking, as scum?"
Why is that idea so ridiculous? Scum will try to appear like town, and that is exactly what people expect from town-Zak. So this statement doesn't make sense to me. It's not just a defense of yourself, but you seem to think that the idea doesn't make sense in general for scum.

No, it wasn't a general argument that scum would never do that, but I have said that in general, scum will prefer to lurk if they feel that there is a good excuse to do so. Of course they will always try to pretend that they are town, but that pretense is much easier to pull off if they can just stay quiet and pretend to be quiet town. As for the above quote, here is the full paragraph where I said that:

Your last paragraph is a very weak accusation against me, and it's another accusation where I have to doubt the sincerity. You really think I would go out of my way to get people talking, as scum? Especially considering the context, where I would be scum for something like the 7th time in the last 10 games? That's the same accusation that Serdoa leveled at MJW, btw. You acknowledge that this is a weak accusation in the same breath that you're making it, so it would be better to leave it out. By leaving it in, it just serves as bait for others who are looking for reasons to suspect me.

Note the part about the context. It's not unthinkable that I'd spam the thread and try to get everybody talking, if I were scum for something like the first time ever and was bubbling with energy and motivation. Would that be the case here? Think back to WW28, if you will, or the games before that, too. My scum play has become progressively lazier as my string of scum rolls has continued. It's a pretty clear trend.

[Meiz]

How was the lazy scum play working for you? I haven't lurked the previous games that much, but if you got caught because of it, it would make sense to change the play. And I do think you cannot play quiet town as scum, without getting caught. This is 2 mafia game, so there's definitely motivation to up the game.