The Way of the Civ Player - Ichabod and Wetbandit's PB13 Spoiler Thread

[wetbandit]

Techs we could go for. We still get calendar in 1 turn with the gold we have. My thinking regarding calendar is that it'll give "passive" benefits to our cities, while the other techs would give "active" benefits that we won't be able to use. Calendar would give us 2 spices right now (probably equates to +2 happy with a trade), which allow us to grow some cities that are currently stagnating. It also allows a banana plantation in the island city we are about to settle.

That's what I get for not closely paying attention. The ability to broker Spices plus inherent +1 happy plus connect a banana () does add more value to calendar than I anticipated.

Good point about building forges, that would weigh against Lit and CoL in the short term. With the acquisition of more territory, the next best economic building will be Courthouses. Also enables Caste for the eventual GA and potential max GP assignment to generate more during that GA.

[Ichabod]

I'm thinking about long term plans for this game, with the objective of trying to win it (not only have a honourable participation). That means playing in a riskier way, since by just going normally (i.e. taking Slow's land, settling the land I still have, growing my cities peacefully until the game is over), I won't be able to 1. beat the skill of some of the players, 2. beat the game position of some of this players. So, I need to do something else besides the conventional play. And the only thing I can see that can make me win this game is: attacking WLP.

You see, the game has 3 big continents, but we can also call it a 4 continent game. The continents would be:

1. The continent with Mack, m_h, FinHarry, dtay, suttree and Jowy.

So, what's going to happen in this continent? My analysis is that we'll have a end game with three great powers and no small powers. The three ones will be FinHarry, Mack and dtay. The others will be swallowed.

In that scenario, I think Mack will be dead set to win the game. First, he has more land than the others. Second, he only borders one of the three big powers. Third, well, it's frigging Mack we are talking about. It's a bit depressing to see Mack's apparently incredible success against m_h. Yes, we have to really congratulate Mack's reading of the game and his Civ instincts to pull off that attack, but still. He's investing way less than I am investing to fight Slow, but he's getting way more (more and better developed cities), including two wonders (one massive one, The Colossus and the Paya). And his progress was blazing fast - I bet he made a HA attack on m_h. But, how come m_h was surprised by that? It's easy to fight back against HA's, I discovered that myself in this game. So, without having met Mack and without having m_h graphs, I think m_h was severely underdefended.

This war means Mack will have a ton of easily defensible land. That's bad, very bad.

My prediction with the game going forward is that dtay will swallow Jowy/TBS soon. He'll have loads of land, he already has wonders and some first to bonuses and he'll get the Hindu shrine, which can be quite a boon. dtay will also be a serious contender, but I don't see him rivalling Mack in skill (even though he revealed to be quite a good player, maybe even a very good player), especially if we factor experience into account.

Suttree will sooner or later be most likely divided between Mack and FinHarry (if that's not the case, he'll be swallowed whole by Mack). That will make Mack a giant nation and he'll be dead set to win the game. It will also make border tensions between FinHarry and Mack grow by a lot.

What about FinHarry? I think they can be the kingmakers of this continent, but I don't think they'll do it, at least not intentionally, considering how much they are investing in this game. From what my reading of the game have to say, they are allied with dtay and are fighting Mack, but anything can happen with the game going forward. A gruesome 2 vs. 1 between dtay/FH vs. Mack would be the best scenario for us. But why would dtay do it, having nothing to gain from it? I think what's likely to happen is one of these: 1. Mack wins the game leaving FH and dtay alone; or 2. Mack conquers FH after he ends suttree and m_h. FH are too inexperienced to tackle Mack, they won't be able to do it - besides, they have less land and border two massive powers. If Mack attacks FH, dtay will likely join him and that'll be FinHarry's doom (I'll probably have to take their island cities if that happens, by the way).

Anyway, if we play the normal game, we can't (yes, 100% sure of it) beat Mack and we most likely won't be able to beat dtay. So, we can't play the normal game.

I'll review the other continents later.

[Rowain]

So the big teddy bear starts to sharpen his claws .

[Ichabod]

So the big teddy bear starts to sharpen his claws .

Yeah, it has been fun thinking about this game. I think I made a mistake by signing up to multiple games at the same time, it's too ahrd to focus that way. I could keep a decent level of micro on them, I guess (the type that you can do by looking at each turn separately, nothing too complex), but I never managed to think about objectives and, ultimately, how to win the game.

---

2. The continent with Plako and Dhalphir

Due to the enormous jungle strip that separates Dhalphir and Bacchus, I've decided to separate our continent in two.

This continent geopolitical situation is way simpler than the first continent, but the consequences are pretty much the same. Plako will develop and he'll conquer Dhalphir. That's it, period. I'm not bashing at Dhalphir, but he's obviously less experienced than plako (which is a top player) and he even took the game while it was already rolling (even if he replaced Serdoa, taking over is never a good thing).

If plako conquers Dhalphir, he will be huge. That land is also better than the land I can get by conquering Slowcheetah, so Plako will have more land and better land than me (my start had advantages, but I'm really lacking in rivers and commerce in my land, which is a big hinderance - a comparision with WLP land is almost unfair). Besides, plako's start also gave him a very powerful island presence, that he improved significantly by getting the Great Lighthouse. He has everything he needs to win just with that. And he has the MoM...

What does that mean to me? Again, that means that, if I play the risk-free game, I lose. Less land, worse land, less experience, worse player -> Plako will defeat me. No way around it.

[Ichabod]

I'll keep on going with the overall game analysis later (with picture, which will also show that I made some mistakes before).

Anyway, let's show the interesting stuff.




This is the army that will invade Slow, the first wave. Second wave, that will go for copper, will be 1 phalanx, 3 phants and a chariot, I think.




When will the peak tile switch to me? Next turn?

[Ceiliazul]

good reports. Looking forward to your analysis of the Pitboss 8.2 continent.

[wetbandit]

Attacking WLP sooner rather than later might be a worthwhile gambit. Depending on the speed of the Slow campaign, you might have the units to form the bulk of the attack right away. The goal would be to take the flood plains area initially. Hopefully Bacchus will also attack; WLP remains the immediate concern, even if Plako or YM will form an unstoppable blob far away, the best defense to that is to blob up ourselves.

Wonder chop city could be a Taj location, even though that's far in the future.

[Ichabod]

The analysis had to take a little break due to a almost 40º weekend (Celsius, not Fahrenheit). Impossible to stay at home...

3. The Continent with Commodore, Pindooter, Lewwyn, Nakor and Azza

This is the continent I'm less worried about in the game. The reason is simple, I don't see any of this players getting a huge empire easily, so I don't think they'll be able to compete with dtay, plako or mackoti. It's not about player skill, mind you, because I think Pindooter and Lewwyn are great players (Commodore is a bit behind them, in my opinion). Or maybe it is about player skill, especially the fact that the disparity between these players skills aren't that huge or, at least, they won't be only pushovers.

I think Nakor is probably the less skilled of the bunch and I don't see him as a very military guy. That means he can, at some point, be swallowed by one of the other players (pindooter have the best geographical advantage to get Nakor's land). Though, from what I can see from the maps I have, he actually has a good number of cities, a good bit of land and a decent amount of population points. So, if he gets blood in his eyes, he won't be an easy victim. Hopefully he stays alive until the end of the game, denying that land from the others.

Azza always get conquered in his games, for some reason. But he seems to be playing a pretty good game here and he knows how to build military and defend himself. He won't be conquered easily. Lewwyn has to take Azza out, if he wants to win the game, but he'll really have to dedicate a lot to do it, I think, and I'm not sure if he's planning to. If that happens, Lewwyn will have loads of land and a very safe border, which spells trouble. He could then proceed to take out Nakor and be a competitor for the game. But I think Lewwyn will only conquer Azza after it can't be relevant to the game outcome anymore.

Pindooter are playing the vikings and I have the impression that they got the circumnavigation. If that's the case, they'll be a major naval power. But how do you win the game from there? I don't know. Pindooter have the problem of neighbouring Commodore, which is a player that, while maybe not on the top of the skill curve, never gives up and finds enjoyable to play most of the hands dealt to him. Commodore won't give up and he won't let Pindooter win the game, if they ever try to. That's what will bring both Pindooter and Commodore down. They'll cancel each other and none of them will have enough to win the game. Plus, Pindooter have the same problem as FinHarry, they are in the middle of two relevant powers, which makes everything more difficult. Though I don't think they'd crumble as easily as I predict FinHarry to do in case of a double-front attack - they are way more experienced.

I think the main characteristic of this continent is that it is very balanced. If that continent was a PBEM game with just those 5 players, it could be really interesting. Since it's a PB with Plako and Mackoti with huge empires on a faraway land, I think they can't win. Maybe they'll help taking down Mack and plako a notch and they end up forgetting about me, since I'm only an avarage skilled player.

[Ichabod]

Declared on Slow, took second half of the timer, since I'm always playing after him.

[wetbandit]

at MH's quick demise. mackoti is a giant.

I logged in and set a few default builds when prompted, tried to keep what they were on previously.

Have to hope that the slow conquest proceeds quickly enough to enable the army to turn around and fight WLP. To that end, I was wondering if it makes sense to tech up to guilds for Knights and attack him with those. Anyway, slow only had 2 one-pop whips this turn, the huge stack of cats should be able to reduce anything.

I don't remember if you had a settler underway, but settling that floodplain/forest spot is something that can also be done during the war without too much trouble.

You guessed right, I'd prefer not to play, if at all possible, during Christmas-New Year's week what with PB11 and PB16 both gearing up.