[PB16 SPOILERS] SevenSpirits goes off the deep end and finds Krill

[SevenSpirits]

t37.

Killed another warrior and only took 1 hit again, so will still have 80%+ odds next turn (and after that we'll reach 11xp). Based on that I didn't put the chop into a third impi, but instead into a worker. (I decided one more worker before settler was prudent since I'm not ecstatic about any sites right now without border popping. And the worker will finish in only 3t, while the settler's timing is awkward and doesn't benefit much from our chopping capabilities.

Retep built another warrior last turn (as he has every turn) but didn't reach hunting yet. I spotted his worker but there's no chance we'll catch it, and it can't do anything harmful, so I ignored it.

[SevenSpirits]

t38:

Finally we get to whittle down the number of warriors since we have 2 impis in range.




In all likelihood the city falls next turn.

[Krill]

Woot that's HE unlocked...I dunno if we do capture that city next turn though; that impi is only, what, 2.5 strength...wow, just checked a combat calc and even then we get 87% chance to win?

[SevenSpirits]

Yeah, C1 + shock + CR1 + CR2 goes a long way, and it will just be against a warrior in a 20% defense flatland city.

[Krill]

You know, I kinda hope Retep just logs in and deletes his units...so we can have another Christmas present.

[SevenSpirits]

Taking stock of our opposition, let's see how depressing things look.

I'd expect all the BW players to have a second city by now and the pottery players to get one in the next few turns. So on that front we're behind. After all, we spent 100h on military and did so quite inefficiently, whipping off of two resource tiles. And (assuming we succeed next turn) we'll still only get our second city up - in a suboptimal spot - 4 turns from now. So it's not surprising.

I took a look at Mikehendi's civstats (as he's the score leader), and he went fast for the second city. Remember he is Elizabeth of France, so basically no early game power. Based on score I believe he has 3-4 more pop than us (and 1 tech more, too - not surprising as we have 2 techs partway done right now). And indeed, civstats shows a new city for him t32, capital growth t33, and another pop growth t37. I didn't notice any whips from him, and as long as I didn't overlook any, this is pretty contrained. It has to be something like:

t0-11 worker.
t12-16 farm.
t17-21 grow to size 3, build a warrior, build a mine, and finish BW.
t22-29 build a settler assisted by a forest chop and build 2 roads.
t30-31 move settler and revolt to slavery. Grow capital.
t32 settle. worker improves food at city #2.
t33 grow to size 4.
t34-38 capital builds worker #2
t37 second city reaches size 2.

So the bright side here is he can only have 2 workers with one of them being born this turn. And his only improvements should be 2 farms and a grass mine. (He won't even have had time to mine copper unless he skipped building roads.) But still, 6 pop is a lot more than us. He could easily whip out another worker and start building FIN cottages, and still be ahead of us in expansion.

This is also very much on par with what we would have accomplished if we'd gone for BW + a settler ASAP instead of BW + impis. We've definitely sacrificed in order to rid the map of retep. Good news there is that we STILL haven't met anyone else and I don't think retep has either. So it's looking increasingly likely that we are fairly isolated from other players and will be able to gain some real value from having removed retep.

What I'm more afraid of, though, is players who went for growth and pottery first. People like (I assume) Gaspar who are just now settling their second cities. Gotta remember, most people are playing with FIN, and getting those cottages up on a map with tech costs this high is a giant advantage. I'm afraid we'll be locked out of religions and wonders for a loooong time. We can only hope that other teams have some equally close neighbors and get into scuffles with them.

[SevenSpirits]

You know, I kinda hope Retep just logs in and deletes his units...so we can have another Christmas present.

I'd rather he didn't, since then people would call our conquest unfair regardless of how foregone a conclusion it is at this point. But I do hope he doesn't spite-whip down to size 2. (He doesn't need to whip this turn for production.) And I hope we don't get a bad roll next turn. And I hope our capture gold is high!

[Krill]

...How would anyone find out until the end of the game (and frankly why care at that point).

That said, yeah, pray to the RNG for good rolls. The spite whip I figure we can handle either way but it would be nice for him to not do it.

[SevenSpirits]

...How would anyone find out until the end of the game (and frankly why care at that point).

That said, yeah, pray to the RNG for good rolls. The spite whip I figure we can handle either way but it would be nice for him to not do it.

Well if he deletes all his warriors, that shows up in power demos and it's theoretically discoverable. But I'm thinking global lurkers, too.

Btw if anyone's wondering, I wouldn't consider a "spite" whip to be poor form, it's just a way to describe whipping a city for the sole purpose of lowering its population.

[Serdoa]

I'll just say that retep imo did already present you your Christmas gift, even with warriors not deleted. And also, screwing his own chances (even if they are only something like 13%) would be unfair towards everyone else.

Btw: 13% isn't that straightforward. I remember players trying to get only 95%+ battles - and we've all even lost those I'm sure.