WW 31 Game Thread PARANOIA

[MJW (ya that one)]

I think the town should always lynch, bob, unless there is a strong reason not to lynch. For example, insuring that the village gets the last kill of the game. Lynching gives the town more information by making people post. If no-one gets lynched the number of posts goes way down and that's really bad for village.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Looking at the flurry of posts I guess Inana is Brick. Or someone engaged by Brick like NobelHelium or pindi. I doubt it is a live player.

If Inana can speak then he has to be a live player because having an unkillable village-friendly person who can speak would be insanely overpowered.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Ok, finally caught up after Safety Day, lunch, and a bit of a personnel fire. The figurative fire was ironic on Safety Day.

Reading everything it seems mostly the same Day 1 forced analysis I find the least fun part of the game. The Old Harry page 7 (default) post jumped out at me the most while reading and then re-reading it, and several others have criticized it, but I don't want to add a vote since as Ichabod says above it's easy for people to jump onto a low hanging bandwagon.

I'm going to vote MJW for now over

People with strong power-roles like seer or vig should feel free to target me because of my role.

I understand he's just trying to imply his own role, but I don't think I like the active fishing for power roles and my sense is revealing/implying one's own power role helps scum more than town.

My only other thought is we have three Bonus Role people with useful 'active abilities.' - Merovech who locks down someone else at night, Old Harry who follows someone, and then Serdoa who gives items. Does anyone have experience with public active abilities like this? Is the best strategy, at least early, to just select secretly?

I'm not trying to imply my power-role. How could you guess my role from what information I gave you? I'm just saying that it would be nice if I were targeted because of my role.

[spacetyrantxenu]

@Q (17:44) : Noticed, as in observed for myself? No, but I don't know what I'm looking for yet. Five of you guys may be good liars or staying quiet. But some of the points being made are interesting, like sunrise's vote for MJW over his begging to be targeted. Why would anyone want to be targeted? Makes me want to target him, like he's trying to play with reverse psychology so that we won't target him when we really should. But maybe he actually does have a role where targeting him would be a bad idea (I definitely need to read through the list of roles Jowy posted tonight to see some possibilities for that).

The other person that rises as close to suspicious as anyone else I've seen here so far is Catwalk, whether it's his style of arguing or something else. He strikes me as being aggressive, which could be him trying to hide his own scumminess. But I don't think I can convict him on that basis yet, so maybe he's just my leading contender for now.

(Can someone tell me in US Eastern time when the deadline is?)

[spacetyrantxenu]

Edit for the above post, that's @Q (17:14), not 17:44.

[Bobchillingworth]

Bob, this is role madness. Even if a No Lynch only requires a majority to be successful (I don't recall seeing it mentioned in the rules), things are not going to play out like that. No Lynch is a perfectly accepted strategy, but for it to be worth trying we need to be able to predict the outcome because otherwise it's too dangerous a gambit. And this is role madness. We don't have anywhere near all the answers, instead we have 20 abilities that could interact differently together, and some may require using, as well as whatever abilities the scum have and any further mechanics that BRick may have thrown into the mix. In other words, we would be giving up our best weapon (the lynch) under the hope that we will be able to manipulate whatever comes out of the night to our advantage, with no real idea as to what mechanics the game has to offer. I also in general think No Lynch setups are more likely to be anti- then pro-town as they are likely to shut down discussion and talk as the day can be decided easily. And besides, it would be very dull smile
So I won't be voting No Lynch today. (It may well be a valid option for the late game.)

It's still sensible if whatever vigs we have lurking around can at least hold their fire for the first night, when there's no reason to be shooting people anyway. Obviously I don't have any idea of what our powers are beyond my own, the public ones, and a few educated guesses (wounds system = multiple vig-like roles). We don't want to hold off lynching someone *every* day- clearly that would be surrendering our only means of winning, plus eventually we'll have enough data to kill commies at decent odds even if we haven't seer-spotted them in the night. But from my experience first-day wolf lynchings are pretty rare, although I admit we'd be giving up voting results data.


And yeah, no lynching at the end of the game should be most useful assuming the town can ensure only the wolves will do a wounding, since that's when (mostly) confirmed villagers will matter most. Like I said before, not lynching is simply a stalling strategy- I'm thinking it's a good idea now, when we all have wounds to spare and no real leads, and I wouldn't advocate it later on when stalling just means giving up the day and seeing people get picked off at night for little to no village benefit.


Anyway, vote if you want, I'll probably vote for someone too if nobody else wants to put off the lynch since otherwise my vote is just useless, but I would at the least implore any vigs we have to hold off on their powers until at least the second night, so that the only wounding we see will come (most probably) from the scum on a villager.

[Catwalk]

@Q (17:44) : Noticed, as in observed for myself? No, but I don't know what I'm looking for yet. Five of you guys may be good liars or staying quiet. But some of the points being made are interesting, like sunrise's vote for MJW over his begging to be targeted. Why would anyone want to be targeted? Makes me want to target him, like he's trying to play with reverse psychology so that we won't target him when we really should. But maybe he actually does have a role where targeting him would be a bad idea (I definitely need to read through the list of roles Jowy posted tonight to see some possibilities for that).

The other person that rises as close to suspicious as anyone else I've seen here so far is Catwalk, whether it's his style of arguing or something else. He strikes me as being aggressive, which could be him trying to hide his own scumminess. But I don't think I can convict him on that basis yet, so maybe he's just my leading contender for now.

(Can someone tell me in US Eastern time when the deadline is?)

Early aggression usually attracts attention to yourself, and is not usually done except by good wolves (IMO). It also stirs discussion, and it helps give us more leads. It is a pro-town thing to do, rather than hide your nose. Lurking may be excused as inactivity, but it very obviously helps scum more than it helps the town. We want people talking and pointing fingers. I still have no clue why I'm being suspected on basis of this, I'm not even being my rambling self (yet).

As for what I'm looking for, Harry is pretty much exactly what I'm looking for. Posting fluff to appear active without actually contributing anything. It may not be smart wolf play, but it's stereotypical new wolf play when you don't know what to do. We've seen it plenty often before. Going after inactives would also be good, I'd rather risk lynching an inactive townie than an active one.

Bob, while first day wolf lynches may be rare don't you agree that we usually get sufficient information to make up for that?

[MJW (ya that one)]

@Q (17:44) : Noticed, as in observed for myself? No, but I don't know what I'm looking for yet. Five of you guys may be good liars or staying quiet. But some of the points being made are interesting, like sunrise's vote for MJW over his begging to be targeted. Why would anyone want to be targeted? Makes me want to target him, like he's trying to play with reverse psychology so that we won't target him when we really should. But maybe he actually does have a role where targeting him would be a bad idea (I definitely need to read through the list of roles Jowy posted tonight to see some possibilities for that).

The other person that rises as close to suspicious as anyone else I've seen here so far is Catwalk, whether it's his style of arguing or something else. He strikes me as being aggressive, which could be him trying to hide his own scumminess. But I don't think I can convict him on that basis yet, so maybe he's just my leading contender for now.

(Can someone tell me in US Eastern time when the deadline is?)

There are many possible roles; like a role that gives someone a vig gun everytime a town visits him. Remember this is a role-madness game. If someone is thinkable about a role then it is possible here.

[Bobchillingworth]

I'm not trying to imply my power-role. How could you guess my role from what information I gave you? I'm just saying that it would be nice if I were targeted because of my role.

Um. Buddy, try reading what you wrote again. I'm not like incredibly familiar with the dozens of different WW roles people can have, but it's not difficult to find a list online and then from there deduce that you have one of the handful which work when targeted with a night action. If you're telling the truth you may not have revealed your *exact* role, but you sure narrowed the possibilities. You might have a valid reason for doing so (although I think discretion is probably called for here), but don't be so obviously disingenuous about it.

[Bobchillingworth]

Bob, while first day wolf lynches may be rare don't you agree that we usually get sufficient information to make up for that?

In all honestly, I don't know. Probably not frequently enough to say "usually" would be my guess, but I think I've only played two games here were I wasn't scum and wasn't dead by the second day, and I don't remember either very well. I guess the lynching of fake seer PB in the very first WW game gave the town some useful data, but I was a wolf and got locked out of the village communications loop pretty early (PMs were allowed), so I'm not certain.