WW 31 Game Thread PARANOIA

[Rowain]

3 minutes to be exact. Just to put that into perspective. I'd assume I would get more credit in regards to my "pushing abilities" vto be honest. I have saved scum-buddies in the past, but not by pushing in the last second, hoping that somehow someone else jumps in.

AFAIK you used a lastminute jump to save your scumbuddy in WW17. More precisly you tied the vote then just like here.

And honestly, if anyone thinks that in general scum is so dumb as to have 3 of them vote consecutively within minutes for the same target to save one of them, I'm not sure if I can ever take you serious again.

Sorry but this is BS. Of course I don't believe that all 3 are scum but that you use this as argument makes me rather lean scum for you.

going for catwalk would have been the better way for scum imo. So either one has to believe that he is scum as well (in that case why not vote for him?) or one has to believe he is village but for some reason was ignored by the perceived scum Q-voters. Which I'd really like a theory on why they would ignore an easier (imo) target that already had more votes.

Catwalk has just lost 1 vote (novice) which pushed Azza in front. At the time you voted it was between pushing catwalk to 4 or Qg with Qg just getting 3 votes fast so joining the Qg-waggon looks better.. At the time of Old Harry there was no chance anymore that CW would reach Azza.

[Catwalk]

I just noticed that Lewwyn voted Azza. Unless Qg is scum, that points quite strongly to Lewwyn not being scum, given that the vote was 6-5. Combine it with Lewwyn being shot at, and it would have to be a massive alibi operation (giving up 1.5 wolves, including one with a powerful role). That doesn't seem likely. Still, it looks like Lewwyn was lying about first claiming vig then doctor. I'd like to hear more from you Lewwyn.

[Serdoa]

catwalk, I already voiced the theory earlier that maybe Lewwyn jumped on him last minute because he believed him to be a goner. He pushed it from 5-5 (and therefore uncertainty what would happen with this tie but at least a 50% chance that Azza dies) to 6-5, gaining heavy town-cred in the process. The later "kill" on him could just be something they came up with after the situation transpired that way, not something they decided early on in D1. Still unlikely

3 minutes to be exact. Just to put that into perspective. I'd assume I would get more credit in regards to my "pushing abilities" vto be honest. I have saved scum-buddies in the past, but not by pushing in the last second, hoping that somehow someone else jumps in.

AFAIK you used a lastminute jump to save your scumbuddy in WW17. More precisly you tied the vote then just like here.

WW17 is more than a year ago, I learned some stuff since then AND most importantly Rowain, we had a 4-4-5 vote count 5 minutes before the day was over. "Slightly" different situation to what we had here I'd say. Maybe even so much difference that in fact it's such a special situation that happened in WW17 that it should not be taken for comparison.

And honestly, if anyone thinks that in general scum is so dumb as to have 3 of them vote consecutively within minutes for the same target to save one of them, I'm not sure if I can ever take you serious again.

Sorry but this is BS. Of course I don't believe that all 3 are scum but that you use this as argument makes me rather lean scum for you.

Excuse accepted But whats so bad about this? Is it my fault that I got the feeling that some are implicitly building their theory upon 3 scum jumping on Q at the last minute? I don't think so. And if you are not one of those thinking that, great

Btw: I think my "defense" so far is good enough as is. But I'm surprised how much you concentrate on me and ignore everything else that happens. Reminds me (and hopefully everyone else) why I replied in length to your "we should only lynch one of those 3"-sentence. Because you clearly seem to believe in that and are not interested to look left nor right.

going for catwalk would have been the better way for scum imo. So either one has to believe that he is scum as well (in that case why not vote for him?) or one has to believe he is village but for some reason was ignored by the perceived scum Q-voters. Which I'd really like a theory on why they would ignore an easier (imo) target that already had more votes.

Catwalk has just lost 1 vote (novice) which pushed Azza in front. At the time you voted it was between pushing catwalk to 4 or Qg with Qg just getting 3 votes fast so joining the Qg-waggon looks better.. At the time of Old Harry there was no chance anymore that CW would reach Azza.
[/quote]

Oh, so both Harry and I are scum? Or what is your point here? I don't mean to upset you, I really don't get it. When I voted I could have pushed catwalk to 4 or Q to 4. You seem to believe that I jumped on Q because it was the better wagon at that time. But we already concluded earlier that I had voiced suspicion about Q. So did I do that in advance, hoping he would be up there later? But if I planned that much, why not push catwalk earlier? Its not like he made it all that hard to push him if one really wanted. And I think we agree that I'm rather good in pushing if I really want to.

[Old Harry]

Some unoriginal thoughts:

- In a game where everyone gets two lives the wolves should have two kills to balance it out
- If so it looks like our vigs held off as per Bob's suggestion
- Or "we" don't have any vigs
- Or someone got blocked
- I don't see why a SK would hold off killing and if he didn't why he'd target Ryan (misslynchable - no offense intended Ryan) or Lewwyn (likely wolf target)

- With tinfoil hat on, as Serdoa said, wolf Lewwyn could vote Azza and get himself injured in the hope of getting confirmed town status - and he would have gotten away with it except for that pesky Ryan
- Using tinfoil scarf instead it's obvious Lewwyn is an SK who got blocked
- Without tinfoil anything Lewwyn could be a village Vig who listened to Bob

I'd lean towards the latter, except that there seems to be some controversy about the Killer Doctor role and at this point with all the damaging stuff out in the open anyway he'd be best off revealing and hoping another doctor can help him.

[Bobchillingworth]

Huh, lots of drama here. If both Lewwyn and Ryan are marked men, Ryan's reveal isn't really going to make a lot of difference. If one or both of them *doesn't* bite it next night, then it's certainly worth looking into in greater depth. But right now I think it's a major distraction, and actually voting to lynch Lewwyn, Catwalk, is really suboptimal play. In what scenario does it make sense to lynch him?


* If he's a wolf (who sacrificed an incredibly valuable strongman-type role), then we should at least give him another night to see if he takes another wound.

* If he's a villager (which I think is the most likely option), then we would not only be wasting today's lynch but also freeing up a scum night-kill, since I assume he would be targeted again.

* If he's a SK or 3rd Faction player, then lynching him is an okay move- except the scum would still have a good reason to target him again anyway. They might deliberately ignore him as part of some psychological gambit, but then he might eliminate one of their clones every night he stays alive. So as in the "if he's a wolf" example, I would advocate waiting until night 2 resolves.


Lynching Lewwyn today, emphasis on today, is anti-town.

[Bobchillingworth]

I would also like to see some sort of content out of sunrise, who as Old Harry quoted is apparently deliberately hanging in the back (the admission of which reads a lot like a common wolf ploy of doing something anti-town and then copping to it voluntarily in the hopes that your honesty buys you cover).

[Qgqqqqq]

My reading is mostly based on tone, he hasn't done anything that sticks out to me as village, but I struggle to critisise anything past his argument with Catwalk. I think other people have said more scummy things now though, so it depends who else is up for the lynch. I could be getting influenced by others reading his WW27 style. Let's say I have a scum lean for now.

Would you care to elaborate? Presumably these are things yhat have been said over the past day so I'm unsure why you wouldn't point them out.

to Lewwyn
Since you're around, can you explain these actions as town:

1) Leaving hints of your role
2) Fake-revealing just vigi at first

And I'd like to know if you think Ryan is lying. Ryan is saying that his only result was that you can kill, while you are claiming that you can both kill and protect. One of you seems to be lying about something.

I find this post by Jowy rather odd, given that he had said earlier that:

Okay guys how about we stop revealing stuff? Like, now. Damage has been done, let's not make it worse.

What has changed Jowy?

Jowy, the point is that you shouldn't assume it's a lie just because the GM doesn't confirm or deny it. It's not his place to do that. So either you are trying to extort information from the GM, which is inappropriate, or you are trying to exploit his mistake to get MJW lynched, which is scummy. I don't know if it's the latter or the former, but probably the former.

But if MJW is town and speaking the truth, then he never lied, but was fucked over by the GM messing up, and could get killed by no fault of his own if we collectively choose to lynch liars in this game. I'm just assuming that if GM makes mistakes, then he corrects them and owns up to it, because that's what has happened every single time GM has made a mistake in a past game I've been a part of. I'm willing to let it go since I've got experienced players telling me I'm in the wrong, but I gotta admit I don't get it.

No a GM doesn't correct mistakes he makes like that. Lets take an example of a seer who reveals under pressure, and states that he got a wolf result on Commodore. As it turns out, this was a GM mistake, and he receives another pm correcting it. Can you imagine how the GM would correct and own up to this? If he did that he would be publicly confirming both the role and alignment of a player.

Also this post by Harry:

On the chances of Novice, Azarius, Serdoa, Gaz and me being scum I don't understand why scum would push Q when Catwalk was right behind Azza at the point novice started the bandwagon, so either the early Q wagon is villagery or Catwalk is a more powerful role than strongman (is there one?) That doesn't help me much

is imo a good question. I haven't thought about that, but it is actually true, going for catwalk would have been the better way for scum imo. So either one has to believe that he is scum as well (in that case why not vote for him?) or one has to believe he is village but for some reason was ignored by the perceived scum Q-voters. Which I'd really like a theory on why they would ignore an easier (imo) target that already had more votes.

Personally I believe there were scum amongst the group, with a greater skew towards those who came later (both due to the actual closeness of the Q-train and the impression reading about others voting last-minute would've given). I don't think anyone is acting under the assumption the whole group was scum.

I just noticed that Lewwyn voted Azza. Unless Qg is scum, that points quite strongly to Lewwyn not being scum, given that the vote was 6-5. Combine it with Lewwyn being shot at, and it would have to be a massive alibi operation (giving up 1.5 wolves, including one with a powerful role). That doesn't seem likely. Still, it looks like Lewwyn was lying about first claiming vig then doctor. I'd like to hear more from you Lewwyn.

I find it vaguely hilarious you missed this point before
On which note, I don't think an endless discussion about what Lewwyn's role is or voting him because he might be SK or whatever is at all productive. I know I, for one, have no intention of voting Lewwyn today. This is not a short game! We can expect at least 5-6 more game days, so not pursuing him is of little cost, especially as it is likely that he will be killed tonight (I have no idea why Lewwyn didn't get baned last night BTW, but its possible we have no simple protective roles). And honestly, I think he's earned that right for lynching a scum yesterday. Maybe we will have to come back to him in the days to come, but I really don't see why we should focus on him today.

[Jowy]

Bob, it's hard for me to ignore someone as scummy as Lewwyn.

Here are the facts:
- Has the ability to kill
- Got caught by town and panicked
- Fake revealed
- Shuts his mouth after the initial panic and refuses to clarify anything
- Still hiding something

Those are all true regardless of his alignment. It's kinda hard to ignore, you know.
When I see scum, I want to kill scum. I don't want to keep em around, especially in role madness game where anything can happen.

I'm not locked to Lewwyn though. Find us a better lynch and I'll join. But only for a better chance to kill a scum.

[Qgqqqqq]

Huh, lots of drama here. If both Lewwyn and Ryan are marked men, Ryan's reveal isn't really going to make a lot of difference. If one or both of them *doesn't* bite it next night, then it's certainly worth looking into in greater depth. But right now I think it's a major distraction, and actually voting to lynch Lewwyn, Catwalk, is really suboptimal play. In what scenario does it make sense to lynch him?


* If he's a wolf (who sacrificed an incredibly valuable strongman-type role), then we should at least give him another night to see if he takes another wound.

* If he's a villager (which I think is the most likely option), then we would not only be wasting today's lynch but also freeing up a scum night-kill, since I assume he would be targeted again.

* If he's a SK or 3rd Faction player, then lynching him is an okay move- except the scum would still have a good reason to target him again anyway. They might deliberately ignore him as part of some psychological gambit, but then he might eliminate one of their clones every night he stays alive. So as in the "if he's a wolf" example, I would advocate waiting until night 2 resolves.


Lynching Lewwyn today, emphasis on today, is anti-town.

Great post Bob. I will add that if Lewwyn is a SK then his last minute switch was a ridiculiously bad move:
*If he'd lynched a villager then he would be under great pressure as a result, when before he was neither seen as a clear villager (and thus, under risk of being nightkilled so a bit of dirt is beneficial) nor paticularly scummy so the attention-grabbing move was bad for a SK.

*As it is he lynched a scum which is very very likely to attract a nightkill, and thus a bad move for the survival-oriented SK

[Qgqqqqq]

Bob, it's hard for me to ignore someone as scummy as Lewwyn.

Here are the facts:
- Has the ability to kill
- Got caught by town and panicked
- Fake revealed
- Shuts his mouth after the initial panic and refuses to clarify anything
- Still hiding something

Those are all true regardless of his alignment. It's kinda hard to ignore, you know.
When I see scum, I want to kill scum. I don't want to keep em around, especially in role madness game where anything can happen.

I'm not locked to Lewwyn though. Find us a better lynch and I'll join. But only for a better chance to kill a scum.

Honestly Jowy, I struggle to see a worse lynch then Lewwyn.
(BTB, I disagree that he panicked)