WW 31 Game Thread PARANOIA

[Rowain]

@Azarius you have the tendency to slip under the radar for a long time. Just wanted to remember you.

[Catwalk]

Huh, lots of drama here. If both Lewwyn and Ryan are marked men, Ryan's reveal isn't really going to make a lot of difference. If one or both of them *doesn't* bite it next night, then it's certainly worth looking into in greater depth. But right now I think it's a major distraction, and actually voting to lynch Lewwyn, Catwalk, is really suboptimal play. In what scenario does it make sense to lynch him?


* If he's a wolf (who sacrificed an incredibly valuable strongman-type role), then we should at least give him another night to see if he takes another wound.

* If he's a villager (which I think is the most likely option), then we would not only be wasting today's lynch but also freeing up a scum night-kill, since I assume he would be targeted again.

* If he's a SK or 3rd Faction player, then lynching him is an okay move- except the scum would still have a good reason to target him again anyway. They might deliberately ignore him as part of some psychological gambit, but then he might eliminate one of their clones every night he stays alive. So as in the "if he's a wolf" example, I would advocate waiting until night 2 resolves.


Lynching Lewwyn today, emphasis on today, is anti-town.

I was posting from work, didn't read up very thoroughly on everything. What stood out to me was that Lewwyn seemingly first claimed to be a vig and then a doctor with death as a byproduct. I agree with your notions otherwise, but doesn't that part stand out to you? To top it off, he's trying to clam up about it. I'm reminded of his game where he played an evil Fae queen or something, 3rd party faction where his objective was to lynch a specific villager. The facts don't quite match up with scum, but I really can't read him as town either. I don't want him to clam up, I would like a good explanation of his contradictions. If you give him a day pass, I think he'll keep clamming up. I assume he's still playing for his faction to win (he's a good sport), and not bothering with a defense seems anti-town to me.

[Serdoa]

The re-read of Azarius was rather lacking. There are 28 posts, but it somehow isn't much content. He was accusing Gazglum for him misrepresenting in Azarius eyes zaks play. He then mentioned shortly Q, whom he voted at the end. And today he started with xenu and moved now to me. Both times without much if any reason.

One post I found interesting though:

I hate parrots.

That was posted at xx:59, a minute before deadline. Tried to influence the "bot" to move to another target, in case it really works automated? I can't believe that someone would really think it is a simple bot, but at the same time, why else would someone post that in a tight voting-situation with one minute to go? Care to explain Azarius?

[Gazglum]

I think that there were scum on the Q voters, unless there was an unlikely time-zone spread where they were all sleeping around deadline.

Azza was a long way from a slam dunk lynch. His own final words suggest that he wasn't expecting to die. In the last six hours or so, when he was one of several people on two votes, the scum would probably have felt pretty secure but not so relaxed they would not try to influence the vote. And then when Rowain put him into the equal lead with a stalled-out Catwalk, I am sure that they would have stirred to do something.

So after Rowain votes Azza the moves were:

Zak > Azza (4th vote)
Novice > Q (1st vote)
Azarius > Q (2nd vote)
Gazglum > Q (3rd)
Serdoa > Q (4th, tying the vote)
Imana > Azza (5th vote)
Old Harry > Q (tying the vote, though close enough to Imana's vote he might not have known about it)
Lewwyn > Azza (6th vote)

That's all the changed in the voting after Azza moved up. Given that I am confident at least one other scum would have been online, that there was movement on Q, and that the case on Azza was far from watertight, why wouldn't they try to save him?

I know that I am innocent. I think there are probably at least two scum in the Q votes around me. Of them, I think Old Harry and Serdoa are the most suspect, as others have said.

Serdoa, I'm thrilled by the workout you're giving your facial muscles today . And there's been a lot of talk, that's good! But I feel like the talk has been obfuscating the main strike against you, which Rowain summed up and you brushed off:

Please explain why they are the top suspects Rowain. It seems for me they are in your mind the top suspects because they

@Serdoa Those 3 are special because they made a run on Qg during the last 10 minutes which would have saved an important wolf.

And what has catwalk to do with that? I don't see anything that makes me believe that he is scum. So far he has played exactly as I'm used to from him. Why should I vote for him? And the same is btw true for Azza. I actually did believe that he was his normal self. So, I go for the one I believe is a wolf.

The bolded part is the strange thing: Because in one of your early posts you said:

@Azza

I don't think your assessment of MJW is correct. He does plays that I find insane quite often, but in the few last games we played on RB with him involved he did never come across as crazy imo - his ideas and plays yes, but not he himself. He seemed very aware of the situation and how to use it best. Imo he showed pretty good play - not insane ramblings. Therefore I don't think he needs to maintain some "insane persona".

And honestly, I think you should know that.

Here you tell Azza directly that his MJW--thing is weird. But at the end of the day without Azza changing a slight bit he suddenly playing as expected? The bolded sentence is one reason why I voted Azza.

Rowain, that's why I didn't vote for him. He played - besides that - as I expect from him. And that one post was bad in a way that I don't expect from wolf Azza. He doesn't normally make such mistakes, he is a calm player. That he would try to go against MJW on the grounds of MJW not being insane enough didn't not feel like a wolf for me that tries to get someone mislynched, but like a careless villager. In short: So bad that I didn't believe a wolf would do it.

Anyhow, I do think I made my points clear, if not everyone is free to ask. But I don't think we will get far with going on with this Rowain. I'd urge you to look at everyone and not just 3 people.

I can't help but feel this is a contradiction, though you are smooth about it. 'He played - besides that - as I expect frmo him'? Azza's vehement attacks on MJW's sanity were about the only play he had yesterday. Do you think Azza normally plays a careless village game?

I want to bring this up again, because I think it's the main point against Serdoa, and its being a bit lost amidst all the other chaos atm.

[Gazglum]

I could use some happyizing, I had some sad times these past few days.

I'm sorry you've had a tough few days Ichabod. I hope this helps in a small way:

happyize:[Ichabod]



Remember Morte, 'keep your face always toward the sunshine - and shadows will fall behind you'!

[Rowain]

Azarius:

Many posts but most are jokes or random noise.

Votes after a starting vote on Matt attack on Gazglum and vote. Interesting is that he first declared Old Harry to be suspicious but refrained from voting him. ( post 160 )

Just 3 posts later he votes Gazglum ( post 163 )

In the very next post he attacks Qg for his OH-CW move.

23 minutes before the lynch he changes to Qg
post 271

15 minutes before the lynch Qg is still sitting on 2 votes he talks to Gazglum

Gazglum, I understand what you mean about zak's lack of overall content, but I still think you characterizing him as tossing dirt around is off the mark. What he has been able to contribute has been rather lacking, and fwiw it has made me suspect him some myself, but he has plead no time and I'm inclined to believe him. It's definitely an easy thing to claim to cover for lack of participation, but it can also be true. I'm in that position enough myself that I can't help but be sympathetic. So ya, I don't buy your explanation and would like to send you whistling to the gallows, but since it seems that noone else agreed then I'll go with my #2. As I said I don't really like either leading candidate, but I believe that if able you should end up making your vote count if you are able. Thus, I would prefer the company of the Azza voters to the Catwalk voters, so will vote that way if it's looking to be a two horse race.

8 minutes before lynch Gaz joins Azarius on Qg and I wonder how much Azarius liked this company

Today: His preferred targets from yesterday are forgotten. No attack on Qg and no attack on Gazglum but again an attack on Old Harry post 548. And again without vote.

[Merovech]

Furthermore, I have a slight hunch that Old Harry is innocent. I'd put the odds as about 55-45 multiplied by the village to scum ratio. At least, I'll have a better handle on it after night 2 (and no, that has nothing to do with any actions that I may or might not take night 2).

I don't think that Lewwyn is innocent based on his previous vig hints then Doctor claim, but do lean innocent based on his being hit plus delivering a wolf, so I don't know what to think there.

If you yourself won't be able to do anything directly, what exactly are you thinking will happen the next night for you to have a better handle on Old Harry's guilt or innocence?

Why would you ask this?

[Azarius]

OMGUS = Oh my god you suck? I'm not good at this abbreviations I'm sorry. But if that's right, no I didn't say you suck. Just that I don't believe that you and I have played enough with each other that you should vote for me based on "not having seen the expected town tells". Especially on D2 with no night-kills in a 20 player game and [b]me defending mostly on D2[b/]. That's a lazy vote and the post I quoted above is just as lazy. Imo you just searched an easy target to drop your vote and because you don't know me good enough you didn't realize that I am not that target. Do it like Rowain and I believe you are village that just doesn't want to make it easy for a potential scum. Do it like you did and I sure will suspect you heavily.

I wasn't trying to imply that you were saying I suck, omgus refers to a vote made in retaliation and not much else. It is true that we haven't played a good many games together, but all the games are saved for posterity and I have read most. As I said before and you may or may not remember, my first game here was in the anonymous game and I spent most of that game thinking you were scum and not acting on it because it seemed against the spirit of the anonymous thing. I am well aware you are anything but an easy target, you would make a very poor choice if I was scum trying to find a plausible home for my vote. I also notice you don't directly point to anything you have done as townish as to why I shouldn't feel this way, rather just that you don't accept such an argument coming from me.

The bolded emphasis in your post is mine. You imply that because you've been mostly defending it'd be harder to get a read on you. That's partially my point, you have been spending a good chunk of your time on defense, and I don't understand why. Leweyn was on you early and had moved off by the time zak voted you. Rowain was poking at you a bit, but no vote from him. My vote on you was the first time you've had more than 1 vote all day. You seem to be more concerned with having votes on yourself than finding scum.

[Merovech]

Well, that was a little harsh, sorry. Point still stands.

[Azarius]

Why would you ask this?

Because it sounded like you were just using made up numbers and posting to appear to be saying something.