WW 31 Game Thread PARANOIA

[Mattimeo]

Brick told us all:

Loyalty Officer investigate result: positive.

I hadn't realised it was such a crappy power

That actually makes it more useful than needing to wait for the person to say.

Also, now I feel like an idiot for spending 5 minutes searching for every instance of 'Old Harry' in like 7 pages of thread :/

[Old Harry]

I wrote this post at the beginning of the day, so obviously OldHarry has made some posts since then, but not all of them good. I saved it because I wanted to put pressure elsewhere and not lock myself into a vote. Anyway this is my analysis of OldHarry's Day 1.

OldHarry has made a lot of scummy posts this game starting with his very first one. Many people might say this is a joke post, and it is, but what OldHarry has done here is try to break the ice without actually voting for anyone. It's harder for newbie wolves to do that initial vote. It just is. Even I have issues with my first vote when I'm scum. Something about the first cut is the deepest...

His first vote comes much later on and is interesting because he piggybacks off of novice who has piggybacked off of OldHarry. It is a strange post as Zak, Ichabod and others pointed out. It meanders around other suspicions and lands on voting for Azarius. And his response is to deflect:

BTW Catwalk, how can Lewwyn be overreacting if he hasn't called you an imbecile yet?

So far I see newbie wolf trying to keep his nerves down play things off as funny and jokey.

His next rebuttal/defence is interesting and very defense heavy. This in particular caught my eye:

Catwalk and Q (and Zak I think) - yes my posts have been fluff, but can you point out any in the first hundred that weren't?

Yes Oldharry I can point out many, many posts that were not fluff in the first 100. In fact almost all of mine were not fluff.

At this point I wanted to see what OldHarry's reaction to a vote from me would be. Apparently it is to quote your previous defences and then make a joke. I don't respond to see what the pressure does to him. He ends up cracking IMO(spoilered for length):

This is much harder than it looks from the sidelines (it is my first game novice). First up I have some thoughts that are fluff and can be skipped if you don't like that sort of thing. I'm mostly just writing them to get them straight in my head and in the hope that you'll point out where I'm wrong:

- I'd like Imana-665-C to be Gaspar, so he gets to join in with the game without all the pain of defending himself. But I'd expect a whole lot more text from him, so I assume it's Brick and that he's got an automated way of making him vote so that he doesn't unfairly influence the game.
- Bob's secondary idea of having vigs hold their fire overnight seems interesting whether or not we lynch. If the wolves use their shot(s) it would mean a confirmed villager or a wounded wolf. The confirmed villager could be a great asset to the village. A wounded wolf would need to be a bit careful not to get themselves mixed up in anything over the next couple of days but would be terrible for the village. If the wolves don't use their shot(s) then that's great for town. At first it seems like this is a good idea - although the prospect of a part-cleared wounded wolf really shoots it in the foot (I know I'm paraphrasing what someone else said, but I wanted to get the logic sorted out for myself). I think this does give Bob a bit of a scum tell.
- Would a possibility for MJW be that he is unvisitable scum, so using up power roles on him is bad for the village. If he's unvisitable village then he'd be better trying to get himself nightkilled by scum. Of course there are a bunch of other possibilities too.
- I think Xenu is floundering about as much as I am. We just need to find someone to sheep...

Azarius posted some more today - nothing groundbreaking, but nothing suspicious either, so since I'm not finding novice scummy or 3rd party (I think he just wasn't paying a lot of attention at the start) I'll go for Lewwyn, who is posting up a storm, but they mostly seem empty (pot meet kettle...) and is just a bit too happy, as if he's rolled scum and is really up for a game.

ps - can I have a link to get the latest version of novice's tool?

He votes for me because my "posts have been empty" (they weren't in the slightest, every post had a purpose and gave insight upon my feelings on whatever topic was at hand), and because I'm too happy so that must mean I've rolled scum. Both of these reasons are bad. One is fallacious and seeks to discredit, the second to cast aspersion. And he neglects the biggest reason. He's voting for me because I voted for him, likely in attempt to push me off of him. And it's also an easier vote to make as new scum, (he voted for me so I'll vote for him.)

After this of course comes "I'm going to regret this aren't I" vote on Qg, with 1 minute left to go in the day tying up Azza and qg. However, the computer had voted seconds before and its possible OldHarry thought he was putting the hammer down on Qg and saving Azza.

Add it all up and I think OldHarry is our most likely scum for the day and MUST be hanged.

I can't see much I can defend against in your post Lewwyn, although I still don't see anything non-fluffy in your posts I flagged earlier:

- "If Jowy starts making sense and contributing in a significant way, he's scum. So don't worry about it Catwalk. "

- "It's been a while since we played WW. We have some guests in the thread(sunrise), and I'm trying to be more Zen again. If people think this is a scum tell, then I'm establishing a new village baseline. "

- "Mattimeo plays silent pretty often. Even as village. But it's only been half a day. I bet he posts again before the end of the day. "

- "I actually am in a good mood. Today I start vacation for the next month and a half. "

- "I have, in the past, correctly picked out scum by their first two votes in several games. So nyah.

I actually think first posts can be the most revealing. "

- "Like this post even if I disagree with Rowain about Zak. "

@Bob:
There is an unknown computer putting votes in who would lynch someone anyway.


Old Harry just reads as Old Harry to me. Which means I agree with Ichabod. But since I'm already voting for catwalk there is no need to change it anyway.

Serdoa does sound like Serdoa and yes the strangebness of zaks post was not lost on me. Could also be done to get other people offering the same thing so that scum knows who won't use a PR during night 1 and have it easier to block any villagerroles. So zakalwe is my Nr 2 right now.

Like this post even if I disagree with Rowain about Zak.

I dont like the bandwagon on MJW.

Me niether.

Too clarify I haven't seen anything MJW out of place and I think the votes on him could be either reaction village votes or hide-y votes by scum.

- [about Sunrise] "The post meanders, is conversation, excuses, votes MJW for something that is very tame of MJW and explained pretty incorrectly. Who thinks this actually implies MJW's role? Could be newby village, could be faked newby scum. I think we wait to let him see another sunrise before deciding. But definitely suspicious. "

- "Well Played."

Like the bandwagon on MJW is expected since on our first day we focus on a random target that ppl think wont be influential to the game :P or a newbie.

Aka, lynchbait and no real tells from the lynch.

- [about MJW to Azza] "Is he a raving lunatic today? I don't think it's even close to that. "

Otherwise it mostly seems accurate, but applies equally to noob village as noob scum (which I know you're not going to believe until you see the blue text, I'm feeling slightly guilty that you've put so much unneeded work in to this, so I'm pretty sure you're village now).

Once I'm dead I'd appreciate some pointers on what to do as village if you just can't see anything suspicious going on on day one? Stay quiet and don't move your vote around? Vote no lynch? Put your vote on people who don't fight back (ie not you)?

[Old Harry]

Anyway [deflecting] elsewhere in the thread Gazglum asked my opinion on my Q-voting comrades; novice, Azarius, Gaz and Serdoa:

- Novice - the reaction to Jowy's demand for GM intervention seemed in character (and pretty funny) to me. He thinks my flip will give lots of information (which I can't see - incriminating Catwalk and making either Q or his train a bit more suspicious aren't a great return, although granted the price isn't high - what info would you get if I flipped scum novice?). MJW and Xenu feel village to me so I don't like those votes, although the latter was probably just to encourage more talk from Mr Turnip... Starting the Q run isn't problematic, but the encouragement ten minutes before deadline nearly made the lemmings jump. 65% scum

- Azarius - His comment to Serdoa: "You seem to be more concerned with having votes on yourself than finding scum." #568 is the only thing I've liked today - claims his vote for Serdoa is based on a nebulous feeling about his play style being off. He was quiet for the first half of day one, before making some decent contributions before the lynch. Today he made some mention of lurkers, a lazy vote for Xenu and not much else, but I presume he'll be back for this evening. Exactly 50% scum

- Gazglum - Gaz always reads helpful and jolly to me (even when he isn't the happiness officer) and I struggle to detach that from village. He's discussed the Q wagon the second most after Serdoa which is either open and honest or supposed to feel open and honest. I agree with his read on Catwalk, but he's clearly wrong about me. I don't feel like he's had enough heat for his part in trying to save Azza, but it would need someone more skilled than me to draw something out of him. 40% scum

- Serdoa - I like the new happyized Serdoa, any chance of keeping the smileys tomorrow? He commented a lot on what the bot could be, I'd like to know what his hunch is for the controller - I have my own, but I dunno if speculating is pro- or anti-town. The discussion with Rowain seemed to go into very fine detail that I find suspicious because the attack didn't seem big enough to justify it, but that is possibly just how you play werewolf well. The main strike against him however is catching Azza being suspicious but not voting for him. Interesting though that he's been ignoring me and focusing on Gazglum, is that because Gaz is more suspicious or harder to take down? 70% scum

-------

No one answered my question yet: are there any better scum roles than strongman? The only reasons I can see for scum pushing Q over Catwalk against Azza are:
- if Catwalk had a stronger role,
- if they were already on him (Ichabod, novice, Q and Xenu were) or
- if they'd already backed Catwalk earlier in the day and didn't want to do a 180 (I can look this up if anyone is interested)

(Ichabod replied:

Well, catwalk was sitting at 3 votes for an eternityand Q was being more discussed by the village near end of day 1, so it makes sense to go for Q rather than Catwalk (also, some people voiced that they disliked the catwalk case).

which I think only works if the voters on Catwalk were all scum.)

So to back up my theory the only player on both the Catwalk and Q wagons was novice. The reason he ignored my "when I flip town" is because he knew it was true. If I need to swap back to Serdoa (or to anyone else) to save myself later I'm sure I'll be happy to subject myself to another three days of being called an idiot.

[Serdoa]

xenu, I'm sorry if my post was too harsh. You might have noticed that I didn't vote for you, despite my tone, and that's mostly because I didn't like your post but that doesn't mean you necessarily are scum.

[quote='spacetyrantxenu' pid='451411' dateline='1390321144']
[quote]
Lewwyn / Ryan: No clue what to make of it. -> Can easily be changed to "ah, that alone is not enough".
Gazglum / Serdoa: Don't trust / not genuine -> can easily be changed to "ah, but it got better now".
Catwalk: No real lean really, maybe just because of D1 -> can easily be changed to "ah, yes, just D1".
[/quote]

So not having a read on someone is non-committal? I thought it was...not having a read on them.[quote]

Well, those 5 are the ones you actually have a scumread on, not no read. Well, you had it in the scum-column at least. That was actually the point I wanted to make in my first post. You did put people into town, neutral, scum categories but my feeling was that actually you have no real read on anyone and are just trying to get a grip. What btw is hard in a big game, at least for me and I guess for most other veteran-players as well.

Also, someone stated you showed the "frustrated villager" - and I would agree. What probably would not have shown if I had not written my post.

[Bobchillingworth]

I'll vote for Old Harry as well, at least for now. Sorry man, but I think you're scum who made an ill-advised desperate play to save Azza Day 1, and has been stuck afterwards trying to keep your head above water.


That said, Xenu also seems to be attracting a lot of heat. Now, I don't like the idea of voting for someone just because they're new to the game and spend a lot of time telling people they're new to the game, as unhelpful as that is. Not when we have other suspects doing stuff like trying to save wolves in the last seconds of the day.


But comments from Xenu like this:

Old Harry - Totally doesn't deserve to be on this list, and like I said above, I don't really think he's that scummy at all. But I'm voting for him until I'm not the leading lynch candidate because I know I'm not scum. Sorry OH

Do set off my Wolf Alarm. If you're village, self-preservation is obviously an important goal, but you do win even if you've been eliminated by game's end, so saying you're voting for someone you think is also village just to save your own skin isn't ideal. Now, it's true that when you *know* you are innocent it's better to see someone who *probably* is innocent hang instead, but even when Xenu posted the above he wasn't in any immediate danger of hanging- we still have several hours left, and I'm sure we'll have some wild vote swings before the day is done. So saying that you're going to just park your vote on this dude you think is most likely innocent to save your butt comes across as pretty scummy. It is however also what I'd probably do if I was a brand-new player who was worried about getting eliminated early like a chump and just wanted to stick around for as long as possible (since that's generally the objective in most games, and the mindset transfers over easily), so I am willing to give Xenu some newb credit.




Does anyone still want me to Sanitize Lewwyn, after his role reveal? While I don't trust him fully, I'm hesitant to neuter a (semi)doctor (if he is a doctor) when he has a couple good targets to protect. I don't know who else I would use the power on though, maybe Xenu if he survives? That wouldn't stop a night-kill if he *is* scum, but it would at least deny the commies his power (assuming it's a night power). I do have to use it on someone.

[spacetyrantxenu]

@Serdoa (preview edit I'm crossposting Bob) - Of course I'm trying to get a grip, that's the whole game, isn't it? Gripping, grasping, figuring out who is who and then sending them to the gallows once you think you've figured it out. I wouldn't say I had (or even now, have) no read on anyone, or I couldn't have written a post about everyone to start with. I wouldn't bet my paycheck (maybe someone else's ) that I'm right about any of my leans, but I feel I do have some kind of read. Or maybe I'm misunderstanding you and that's what you're saying -- that my reads probably aren't right. I can't argue that, no one can for sure until we vote and see whether we've killed scum or mislynched.

[Serdoa]

No, that's not what I meant. I don't know how to get it across better. It doesn't feel as if there is much difference in your reads. Some certainly (Ichabod gives you good feelings it seems) but others doesn't appear to be different from one another. Maybe it is difference in play simply, but if I would post such a list with the exact same words you used, I would be hanged instantly for it, that I'm certain about.

[Jowy]

Uh huh Bob. Self-defense is not scummy, don't try to twist the facts just to get your target lynched.

Also, why are you suddenly so hesitant to roleblock Lewwyn? I'll tell you what it looks like to me. It looks like you only offered to roleblock him to save him from a lynch, and now that the storm is past, you wanna let him roam free the next night. You know, the guy that you claim you don't trust. Makes me wonder what you're really up to.

[spacetyrantxenu]

But comments from Xenu like this:

Old Harry - Totally doesn't deserve to be on this list, and like I said above, I don't really think he's that scummy at all. But I'm voting for him until I'm not the leading lynch candidate because I know I'm not scum. Sorry OH

Do set off my Wolf Alarm. If you're village, self-preservation is obviously an important goal, but you do win even if you've been eliminated by game's end, so saying you're voting for someone you think is also village just to save your own skin isn't ideal.

Right, but he may actually be a wolf, and if he is we get another lucky kill. That seems better than letting myself die when I'm not a wolf. (Oops, reading further you followed my line of thought on this. OK.)

I didn't say I was going to leave my vote on him though, so what's wrong with parking it there? I did say I'd prefer to vote elsewhere. And I don't know about immediate danger or not, I was leading the vote count, that seat feels hot to me. Don't want to be a chump, after all.... And about the timing, I couldn't have waited to put down a vote. You may have noticed the wagon training up?

@Serdoa, why would it get you hanged instantly? What was so bad about it? Would I have been better served to just leave off everyone I didn't have more certainty about? That may have been a very short list. I get that the content may not have been great or added much to the conversation, but that's what I have for right now. If I get some great insight later I'll let you all know.

(and more cross posting...doh)

[novice]

Today's been an unexpectedly busy day. I just had time to make my chess moves and skim this thread.

Old Harry, catching scum always reveals a lot of information, that goes without saying. That's why I said your flip would provide info without addressing "flipping as town". Your flip would provide info even if you flip as town, is what I was saying. Why? Because the Ichabod theory and everything that followed is predicated on you being town. Also it's always good to know the alignment of someone who's received many votes. (This is pretty basic mafia theory.)

The reason I said "This is not good" on day one was because the votes were very spread out, and the top candidate (Azza) seemed to be there just by virtue of nobody having anything concrete on anybody else. Normally when someone's lynched on day one with 4 long-standing votes on them (which was what Azza had when I commented) they're most definitely not scum. Again, these are general mafia theory truths which I don't think require much elaboration, really.

If there was anything else I should answer please remind me.

As for who we should lynch, I actually agree with Jowy that Xenu's turnaround from "help, I'm a noob" to "here's some content" is suspicious in itself. Also, Serdoa is most definitely not acting his normal self, and he didn't declare any intention not to until after it was pointed out AFAICT. The impression I get from reading his posts today is "Oh shit I'm about to get lynched". Overly focused on nipping criticism in the bud, and less focused on making sense of the game. Gazglum gave a perfect example - Serdoa dismisses the idea of pursuing Q voters - which I recognize from my own scum games. When an idea implicates you, attack it even if it also implicates others. Old Harry I don't know about, his day one was less than stellar but his day 2 seems more in line with struggling newbie town. Him voting me doesn't do him any favours, naturally.

I'm sure there are other suspects to pursue as well. I'm not seeing Merovech as scum, the extra comma notwithstanding. Mainly because I think he made a good case on Xenu. Somebody pushed Azarius, was it Rowain? I'm not seeing that at all, Azarius is a strong town read for me, also based on some good observations that he made. Lewwyn's claim stinks but I agree with Bob that we shouldn't lynch him today. Besides, I got a town read on Lewwyn from the way he stepped up his activity on day one after catching heat, instead of slinking back to the shadows to let the storm blow over. Oh and there's the nice bit of investigation by Catwalk which revealed that Lewwyn actually voted for Azza yesterday. Anyway the point I was going to make was that I don't think we should lynch outside today's main discussion points, we need to resolve some questions to keep things manageable from an information management perspective.

With all that, I'm staying on Xenu and Serdoa is my other preference ATM.