January 30th, 2014, 06:55
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You aren't wrong about Bob. He has played very differently after he was caught and his fight to death with Gazglum.
January 30th, 2014, 07:26
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(January 30th, 2014, 04:58)Rowain Wrote: Now some theories/ideas I have
Code: Premise: On N3 we had 3 kills with none of it beeing a vig-kill. So lets assume 3 as the standard number of killactions what does that mean?
N1 expected kills 4: confirmed blocks : 1 (Merovech saves OH) kills happening: 2 (Ryan, Lewwyn) missing kills: 1 either double up or zak healed by Rowain
N2 expected kills 5: confirmed blocks 0 kills happening: 3 (Qg, MJW, Serdoa) with 2 of them vigkills (Qg, Serdoa) missing kkills: 2 1 of it good chance of beeing double up on Serdoa. people blocked/scrubbed: Ryan, novice
N3 all expected scumkills happened 1 vigkill blocked
N4 no scumkill. 1 vig kill. people blocked: catwalk, Serdoa - novice healed by Rowain or doubleup.
Considering the above (and using the Ichabod-theorem  ) makes it for me quite likely that catwalk is scum.
Other scummie-possibilities are Ryan + novice.
What is the Ichabod-theorem? 
Well, we are missing one watcher (the one who gave MJW his power on night 1), right? And we now that Catwalk and Bob can kill...
Seeing the roles we have, Qg's role seems extremely convoluted. What was it again? And did Qgq follow MJW used it on MJW on night one? I have a feeling that Qgq can be lying about his role, while being the missing watcher. But here's the thing: why would he lie about being the watcher? I mean, we only suspect the watcher role to be a scum-role because no one claimed it, while we know it exists (i.e. someone is lying; lying = scum). I wonder why someone would lie about this...
Well, there's one answer that I find good for this question. The only people who would have to lie about being the watcher is someone that already fake claimed (and can't really claim to be watcher now). At that point in the game, we had two claims that fit this description -> bob and catwalk. Bob could have faked his vig role due to Ryan's scan, so he can't really explain how he's a vig and a watcher. Catwalk preemptively claimed that he's able to kill, maybe due to being afraid of a scan - after that, he also couldn't claim watcher.
This leads me to believe that one of catwalk and bob is scum. bobchillingworth fits this theory better, while also being playing in a more suspicious manner.
Questions:
1. Any holes in this theory?
2. Xenu scanned catwalk, right? What was his role flavour again?
Requests:
1. Can you confirm my message, oh, space tyrant?
January 30th, 2014, 07:31
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Sorry for my bad english, should have reviewed my post before posting it.
January 30th, 2014, 07:38
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Bobchillingworth If you guys are selling your seer this soon then welp :P I did my best this game.
January 30th, 2014, 07:39
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That's actually a really good theory on Bob. It's the best reason we have for someone not claiming watcher.
Did Bob share what his power name is? Maybe we could wait a day and let xenu scan him.
January 30th, 2014, 08:06
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@Ichabod. Xenu targeted Jowy, Rowain, and Merovech on nights 1-3. He hasn't said who he targeted last night.
We're still missing flavor names from Sunrise, Catwalk, Ichabod, and Serdoa. Also, you should claim your own flavor name, Xenu, just for completeness. 
The point about Bob or Catwalk possibly being the watcher does make sense to me. But I'm not convinced that scum would want to claim watcher, anyway. I was certainly waiting with interest to see who would claim that, preparing to question their action. Considering that MJW asked people with powerful power roles to visit him, what better target for a scum watcher?
The revelation of Internal Security suggests indirectly that the communist faction isn't all that large. So it's plausible that Bob is a communist who was trapped on that wagon, and they didn't have enough voting power to save Azza. Catwalk ended day 1 with his vote sitting inactively on Old Harry. That's also compatible. I got a town read from him earlier, though.
I agree that Q and partly also Catwalk have somewhat convoluted claims. Like I said earlier, that could be an attempt to avoid clashes with other claims. And I agree with Serdoa and Jowy that Ryan makes sense as a SK, primarily. I guess the Mattimeo theorem says that we should let him live, then?
@Jowy. Bob's ability is allegedly called Throwdown. If he's the watcher, I doubt that's his real ability name. Here is the updated list:
If you know what I mean.
January 30th, 2014, 08:08
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My ability name is Telekinesis.
January 30th, 2014, 08:26
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I want to hear Catwalk's ability name... I think Sunrise's ability is Mental Link - not sure if that's the name, but that's what he hinted me in the private quicktopic.
Is it just me or Throwdown seems a bit off compared to the other ability names?
Is there anyone else that fits on a scum watcher theory? I think Catwalk, Bob, Qgq and maybe Serdoa (it'd have to be a pretty crazy strategy for it to work, though - and Ryan kind of cleared him, right? Maybe Serdoa could be a tracker/watcher? I don't think it makes sense) are the only ones.
Wait, what mattimeo's ability does?
January 30th, 2014, 08:38
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Mattimeo's ability has been confirmed, right?
I think there's certainly a scum between Catwalk, Qgq, Novice (yeah, novice, I forgot about it, but his claimed ability is kind of stupid compared to Jowy's; problem is, my ability is stupid compared to Sunrise's, right?) and Bob.
Novice being scum means Ryan is scum. That makes me give him a villager lean.
Catwalk's ability makes sense.
Qgq's ability is very strange. I actually would like him to explain it again.
---
I know I'm delving into pure meta here, but I think is the best I can do.
I think we should kill one of Qgq, bob or Novice. If Novice is scum, we know Ryan is scum and if he's not, we only lost a bad power role (and we didn't lynch a seer) -> not a very bright strategy, but there you go.
I want to hear Xenu's result. But I think killing bob is the best we can do right now.
January 30th, 2014, 08:45
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(January 30th, 2014, 07:26)Ichabod Wrote: What is the Ichabod-theorem?
If Ichabods founds playerA scummy and gets the village to follow his lead then playerA is innocent. If Ichabod gets largely ignored and playerA escapes easily then playerA is scum. Of course the theorem only works if Ichabod himself is a villager .
(January 30th, 2014, 07:26)Ichabod Wrote: This leads me to believe that one of catwalk and bob is scum. bobchillingworth fits this theory better, while also being playing in a more suspicious manner.
The theory sounds good. I for one prefer to lynch catwalk. But there are good arguments for both.
(January 30th, 2014, 08:26)Ichabod Wrote: Wait, what mattimeo's ability does?
Doubles his targets ability. (=I could heal 2 people last night, Lewwyn got 2 teleports and Serdoa could track 2 people)
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