[SPOILERS] Dip4 Turkish Delight: scooter dies first

[scooter]

Diplo with Russia - Twinkletoes

Mos-Sev, eh? Not your best choice.

I had to make sure it looked like a full on stab.

Now I have Rowain & MJW telling me exactly what they plan to do next turn so I can figure out how to turn the tables on them.

After all my chats with both of them, this was the only way to sell it to them & get what we needed.

From first impressions, AH may be able to be denied a build. And I'm pretty sure that the Italian army in Austria is getting convoyed, rather than it being a stab.

Once I figure out a plan, I'll let you know.

TT

One correction - having actually woken up properly & seen the map, its clear Italy's army is heading to Serbia

Here's the situation.

Everyone now thinks I've stabbed you. It looks like you do too. Yet I haven't actually hurt you at all yet and I think Rowain has erred to the point where we can possibly leave him with no builds.

I will use my fleet to help you hold in BUL (don't think your fleet can move there - and if it could, no way I can make you trust me enough to leave a home SC undefended) so you get a build. He wants me to support him in there.

I support myself into RUM which means his RUM unit that attacks BUL is displaced. Italy holds in TRI or is perhaps bounced in SER and remains there anyway. IT could also bounce him in GRE I suppose which leaves Rowain in a real hole.

You knew this plan had risks, but believe me when I say that this was the best way to get the other two to spill their secrets to me and know where they are attacking next.

You may not trust me, but if I really wanted to stab you, do you really think I would do it now when you can target everything at me and let the others clean up? I'm not stupid. Now AH has been clumsy enough to let Italy into TRI freely because I told them I was stabbing you, Rowain is not expecting a swift reversal of fortunes.

TT

Just another thought - not sure if its possible again but its out there. If Italy lulls Austria into letting him into Serbia but actually holds in Tri, then you could take it with BUL and I support your fleet into BUL with my fleet and take RUM with my two armies - leading with the UKR one so I can't build in SEV.

I may have the unit math wrong, but it seems feasible. Again it may fall down on trust issues but it could net you two builds and really screw Rowain.

Up to you, but lets at least discuss this.

TT

(those all frantically came in one after another while I was sleeping and then away from my computer )

You did specifically say that you would order mos-ukr...

Interestingly, it worked amazingly well. MJW is gleefully prepared to stab Rowain.

Quick side conversation with Gaspar:

Do you buy this? That he thought his moves were expected by us? His initial mos-ukr message was early on. I'm on the fence

My gut instinct is that I don't buy it, no. But I'm sure emotion plays into it and Diplomacy is not the game for emotion. So probably the best plan here is that whatever we do, we leave ourselves least exposed if everyone is lying to us. R is still logistically the best ally, but a bad logistical ally is better than good logistical enemy.

So in sum - I dunno. I think maybe we just need to find the simplest way to make sure this doesn't work out too well for anyone and then reassess after the Fall moves.

Anyway, the table is set for things to work out okay, so I decided I'm just going to go with it. If TT is being honest with us, we still have a great shot at doing quite well here. Let's roll the dice. The main thing is I don't see any real gain in flipping TT off and ditching the plan, so might as well stick with my gut and see this out.

Twinkletoes,

Ok, I guess we should have clarified on what our exact moves were going to be before the turn resolution. We'll be more careful next time.

Looking forward to this turn, we definitely have options. I think the main priority should be ensuring Rowain doesn't get a build - he'll be done if we can do that. This plan suggestion of yours might just be able to work. MJW is more than willing to just sit in Tri (I threatened to throw things to you as planned, and that seemed to be convincing).

So, you're thinking something like:

Bul-Ser
Con-Bul
Ukr-Rum
Sev S Ukr-Rum
Bla S Con-Bul
Tri HLD

Like that?

Thanks,
scooter - Turkey

That is what I was thinking.

Italy will not bounce Rowain in Greece as he wants Tun, but by keeping Tri, Rowain will only break even.

TT

Hey scooter,

Just been speaking with MJW and he's on board with the plan too.

TT

WAIT WHAT.

You didn't tell him we're working together, did you? He only agreed to this because I insisted you stabbed me and I threatened to throw my centers to you if he didn't do what I wanted with his Trieste army.

Thanks,
scooter - Turkey

Also, MJW is going to order Tri-Vie rather than holding. I said fine whatever, as long as Rowain loses a center to MJW I'm content.

scooter,

In the end I had to tell him, the only way to get him to turn in the end was to tell him that I'm with you no matter what these moves and that if he wants to profit he should switch sides. He wasn't impressed by your threat tbh.

TT

I swear, what is it with these people and gleefully admitting what their plans are. I expected that nonsense from MJW (confirming Key Lepanto to me for no reason whatsoever), but I thought TT would at least have the sense to not give up our plans. MJW was doing exactly what I wanted him to do (or at least he's saying so). He doesn't know how to keep his mouth shut, so you don't trust him with more information than you're willing for him to repeat. If MJW has any sense at all, he'll now know my threat was completely empty, and he'll side with Rowain because he'll recognize that he's likely the third wheel in this division of Austria.

Awesome.

Just gonna stick to the plan and hope for the best.

[scooter]

My reply to TT:

I'll be honest, I think telling him was a mistake, because I think if anything it may just encourage him to side with Rowain knowing that he's next. I won't bet anything meaningful on it, though, because predicting anything MJW does is an exercise in futility.

We'll see what happens, but either way, I'm moving as planned. Hoping for the best!

Thanks,
scooter - Turkey

As for why to trust TT - I've come around on thinking he was being honest with me when I say he expected that we knew he'd order Mos-Sev. It is a much more convincing "stab" to order that. Also I don't really see better option. This way we have a shot at coming out with 2 centers if all goes as planned, which was a complete pipe dream a couple days ago. TT just replied:

It might be, but at the end of the day cards needed laying on the table or we end up with a 2v2 that screws us all.

So I'm not going to belabor my point to him directly since I see no value in potentially sounding condescending to him, but the problem here is that telling MJW right now is the most likely way to cause "a 2v2 that screws us all." MJW gets 2 centers either way here - either by helping Rowain or by stabbing him. All he cares about is what puts him in the best position next year.

Now that he knows Russia and I are cooperating, his motivation to help me get 2 centers so that I can kill him next is gone, especially since he now knows for sure that I lied to him in my attempt to blackmail him into helping. At that point, why not just stick with Rowain? I'm halfway expecting he may do that now. If he would've gone through with the stab, Rowain would gain 0 and I would gain 2, and MJW's interest in helping Rowain would evaporate - he would be forced to side with us. That's not really true now. So I guess I'm left to just hoping that MJW does what I want him to do, which is not really the best thing to hope in.

[Mardoc]

So if I understand you correctly, you got both TT and MJW onside by promising to suicide to the other if they don't cooperate?

[scooter]

I'll have more comments later, but suffice it to say I'm still bitter at TT for telling MJW about our plan. I trust TT not even slightly.

[scooter]

So if I understand you correctly, you got both TT and MJW onside by promising to suicide to the other if they don't cooperate?

Not exactly. For starters, I never threatened Twinkletoes, I reasoned with him. We've had a weird relationship so far (and next I'm going to do a post on that), but he wanted to go the Juggernaut route and do a few things to throw people off the scent. However, he's done a few things (the Mos-Sev order that he forgot to tell me about and spilling our plans to MJW) that have made it hard for me to trust him.

MJW I threatened, because I know from experience that reason/logic mean nothing to him . Clearly from the gamestate thread it didn't work. Whether it would have worked prior to TT spilling our plans, though, is the real question. I don't know the answer, but if I'm Italy and Russia tells me he's really working with Turkey, I nope the heck out of any deals with Turkey. So I'll let you do the math. Anyway, the short of it is Twinkletoes risked any chance of Italy cooperating for a chance at gaining a new friend so he could stab me, so in doing so, he made me not really trust him.

However, it's not like I have a lot of other awesome options on who to be friends with. I'm getting to work on that, but I have an array of bad options and no good ones. Further updates coming up. I'll explain my Ank-Arm orders first, then talk about TT's reaction to everything, then try to cover other stuff.

[scooter]

So Gaspar and I exchanged emails for awhile yesterday on what to do about Twinkletoes, focusing on what to do about my Ankara army and how it affects R-T relationship. I'll lead with those. Here is the pre-moves map for reference.

Any thoughts on what to do with the army in Ankara? My main hesitation right now is the fact that TT informed MJW on what's going on, which is obviously a dumb thing to do unless he's angling to work with MJW over me. Anyway, I think I need to be prepared for an R stab sooner than later, which means maybe I should be prepping to do it myself. As is, I'm going to move F Con onto the east coast of Bulgaria rather than west for TT protection.

On the off chance that I get 2 builds (like I will if MJW is not lying to me), ordering Ank-Arm and building F Con F Ank is awfully tempting. That would screw TT pretty badly, giving me 3 fleets bordering BLA and also an army next to Sev. I'd force BLA in the spring, Sev in the fall, and sail into the Med with the extra fleet also in the fall.

However, if I get just 1 build, that decision doesn't look so hot. Or if I'm wrong and TT really is committed to making RT work, I'm burning it down way too early. Let me know if you've got any strong opinions - I'm just very suspicious of TT after he shared that info with MJW, and I'm not sure if that's me being overly paranoid or not.

Honestly, the options are this:

TT is an idiot.
TT is setting us up.

While he has his moments, I don't think he's an idiot. I think you put yourself in best position to defend against him and if F1901 turns out the way we want, then we can reassess before ordering builds.

That's basically how I feel. Why go through that whole charade of a fake stab if he's going to immediately tell people it was a fake. Unless he's trying to buy a new ally with that info.

I don't think TT will try to assault my centers from BLA this turn, because that's awfully risky it simply fails on a 50/50 with my army in Ankara. So that's why I'm seriously considering ordering Ank-Arm.

The only question really is if Ank-Arm is point of no return?

TT just told me via chat that due to the fact that he's not going to be able to get 2 builds, he's going to take RUM with SEV rather than UKR as originally agreed. This makes me even more suspicious.

But yes, it would probably be point of no return. If we do get 2 builds, it's a home run. If we get just 1, we probably killed our only chance at a solid ally.

Yeah, screw it.

I'd rather lose being aggressive then get fooled twice in a row by the same guy.

I agreed. Turn processed. results:



1) TT didn't screw us. From what I can tell from moves and what Rowain told me this morning, he was absolutely given the chance (and expected) to do so. Rowain seemed to be expecting BLA S Rum-Bul, which he didn't get. That definitely would have basically finished me.

2) TT is really, really upset. At MJW. Not me. I saw I had a chat from him last night, was prepared for the worst, and it was just briefly complaining about MJW

3) MJW tried to give me some "oh crap I forgot to change my orders" thing that was so very obviously a lie. I called hiim on it and he immediately said yeah it was on purpose.


So TT chats me this morning:

scooter
hey
so I"m just now catching up on this mess that was this part turn
the only thing that's certain is that mattimeo is going to kill us all
Twinkletoes
yeah
MJW forgot the deadline was yesterday by sounds of it
scooter
no, he lied
Twinkletoes
and might well have actually swapped had he been on earlier :/
scooter
he gave me that same spiel, and I pressed him on it and he admitted he was lying
he was lying to prevent me from ordering Bul-Gre and preventing Austria from getting a build
Twinkletoes
ah well, he told me he had lied to you but that my last emails were swaying him over to actually doing what we needed
but whatever the truth, it doens't really matter now
scooter
also, dtay convoying into norway? surely that's not the news you were hoping
Twinkletoes
he promised a fleet to begin with
then reneged and told me so in advance
scooter
apparently he's lying to everyone lol
Twinkletoes
and germany told me late on he was bouncing me
scooter
also, that order set between england and france is amazing
Twinkletoes
its germany's game to win
scooter
it's like they're playing a no talking game
Twinkletoes
indeed
scooter
and yeah it is
although that knowledge is sometimes enough to force everyone else to respond to it
Twinkletoes
you'd hope
scooter
but I don't know who can do what. you're tied down. E and F clearly aren't talking or talking well. so who knows
Twinkletoes
I'm pretty screwed
scooter
rowain's going to retreat into galicia and that's going to be awwkard
awkward
Twinkletoes
Aus retreats to Gal (hopefully he can't do Sev)
scooter
yeah he can't do Sev
Twinkletoes
and so I either build in St P or War
but what was the armenia move about?
scooter
yeah, I don't know what to say on which you build. rock and a hard place
I was honestly afraid you were going to stab me
so I wanted insurance
ability to build in either ank or smy
but obviously that was unfounded fear
Twinkletoes
I wouldn't have gone Arm even if stabbing you, needed to guarantee Rum from an Aus stab and would have supported him into Bul
especially once Sweden was gone
scooter
right. I didn't think you would move into armenia. more than anything i wanted the chance to build F Ank if you helped A in any way. and An-Syr seemed like way too much effort
one perk you have
Twinkletoes
tbh I don't know if I have the willpower for the bull of this next turn
scooter
is england may be sufficiently afraid of germany that he may be willing to bury things and help you with sweden
I dunno, it's worth a shot
and yeah, diplomacy can be a draining game
Twinkletoes
even without the idiocy & irrationality of MJW
scooter
I generally just don't trust a thing he says
he's unpredictable, and that's not what you want in someone you're working with, hah
Twinkletoes
yeah, but unfortunately we had to to have any chance of a quick defeat of Rowain (who is seriously & insultingly pissed at me)
scooter
don't take Rowain's big talk too seriously. he gave a LOT of it in the last game over some tense turns, and we were just fine after the game
Twinkletoes
just annoying

Well I certainly didn't lie to him.

MJW not cooperating and Rowain getting mad has clearly gotten to TT a little bit. Anyway, we spent a remarkable amount of time talking about things other than my army in Armenia, and he isn't planning on building in Sev. Opportunity is there, but Austria and Italy are still both very much not my friends.

[Mardoc]

Not exactly.

Yeah - I think I'm going to have to save my comments for after orders are issued, not before

Still enjoying your thread

[Gaspar]

Not a lot of good options for progress right now. I think ultimately everything is about trying to keep the status quo in our part of the world until someone gets annoyed and wants to change things. And hopefully TT stays irritated with Rowain and MJW enough that he doesn't decide the way to change things is by effing with us.

That EF situation is beyond hilarious, are we sure they don't think this is gunboat?

[Jkaen]

I think at this point the only real choice is to chase the juggernaut the next few turns and push back Rowain and MJW

[sunrise089]

Did you guys have to wait 24 hours for an army that could only retreat to one specific country? Or can retreating armies displace one's other armies?