[Spoilers] Fintourist and Old Harry have nothing to see here

[Fintourist]

Just had a quick look to check on city and worker micro - we have another bank completing this turn with two universities completing next turn, so I'd like to set research to 100% for a turn just to min/max the commerce, but that would complete Optics, and I don't think we want to give Ichabod that warning do we? Running 50% this turn almost completes the tech and leaves us with 1200 gold, then we could run another turn of 0% next turn and 100% for the four or five turns it'll take to get to Astro...

This is safer course of action for sure. Although the fact that Ichabod pretty often misses a turn (needs a pause without a warning) somehow makes me feel that he is somewhat checked out and it is possible that he does not pay attention to F4-data. (That's pretty much the same reason that I consider it even remotely possible that our planned invasion could be a net positive for us)

In other news our enforced peace with Mackoti (and less worryingly Dtay) expires in seven turns. Do we:
- Attack Ichabod and allow Mack to think about charging into us?
- Delay Attacking Ichabod until we've war-peaced Mack (or at least know that he's not going to take peace)?

TBH it may not be much of a delay, since we'll need a couple of turns after we get Astro anyway. What do you think?

1. I think we need to start worrying about dtay even though everything is still quiet. Where else should he get more land and what should he do with his elite troops that survived fighting with TBS. It is very possible that the true "f**k you" effect from being in the middle of this continent is just about to hit us.
----> I'll plan to log in later today so I can check this myself, but do we already have sentries in his land? I think we need them latest 3 turns before our peace treaty ends. You wrote that he might even have our city visibility and if that's true we need something in the north so that we don't look too nakorish
2. For sure it would be nice to have enforced peace with both mack & dtay when we attack Ichabod, if we manage to get a good sentry net in place I could live without it though. (it's a bit gambly, kind of counting on that neither dtay nor mack wants to be the first one attacking us while we are busy with Ichabod)
3. Anyways, as you said, our attack date will be pretty much the same when we sign our deals with dtay & mack so we can go forward with preparations and if Ichabod wakes up or our borders look too scary we abort.
4. Do you already have a rough plan in mind? In order to make the possible invasion effective our logistics need to work. Do we get together 4, 5 or 6 galleons filled with units for our alpha strike? I think we probably organize it so that we upgrade 2-3 galleys and produce 2-3 galleons out of Omdu, France & Isandlwana. We probably can fill 2-3 galleys with troops from the island (especially if we get enforced peace with mack), but we need to still get 7-10 mounted units from our main continent. We want at least 4-5 so that we can take Stray Geese immediately and we would like to unload at least 3 knights/cuirs at Eyes so that we get a chance to take Playing With Fire immediately if it's lightly defended.

The other big question for the turn - what to do with our fourth great general?

All very good options. A 7-move galleon could simultaneously fork at least 4 mainland cities of Ichabod, which would be fun (although regular galleon can already fork 3 cities too). Solid option is probably locate him centrally so that we can use it in Ichabod war if necessary or settle it in Jamestown after it has finished West Point.

1 extra idea: Is this technically possible (similar logic as with Commodore's spectacular morale-knight attack in PB8)?
Next turn we first take Madrid, then move one unit on the grass hill W of Toledo. If Toledo is defended by a single unit, we attach GG to a cuir NE of Madrid, move the cuir onto the same grass hill, then we take morale, and capture the city. I think there is no way that a 3-move unit could get us suttree's capital. It's maybe a bit questionable if ensuring that we get Toledo (assuming mack has not taken Toledo by then) before mack is worth using a GG.

[Old Harry]

Turn 186 denoument

So this is what happened earlier on, read from left to right. We sacrificed 350 hammers of cats, then 270 hammers of Knights and 320 hammers of muskets without taking anything as yet. Probably not the best move, but if it works out as I hope then it makes our inland cities a lot safer. The reason I think it may work out as I hope is that Mack is busy taking cities off TBS now...


You can watch the battle here, it took about an hour though, and you'll have to put up with silence, very slow typing and tiny text commentary. At the start I'm lamenting Suttree burning his great general to delete two workers of ours that I was a little careless with
http://youtu.be/sylhxdDkTb4

As for planning. It looks like we'll get Astronomy eot191. Right now we have some units being built. The building capacity of our coastal production cities are like so:
- eot Issy will have 65/80 hammers in a Musket, 80/100 Cuir, 42/50 Cat and 40/60 Pike, and will make ~25 hammers a turn once the golden age is over, so it can build up a wave of overflow into a Galleon or two in six turns.
- France will finish a University eot 187, then can start building a galley at 15 hammers per turn, so could need the whip to get a Galleon out t191, but may be able to finish a galley the turn before to cash-upgrade.
- BoP Can put 15-20 hpt into galleys (instead of the Bank its currently on) either to upgrade or to queue-upgrade.
- Midway will have 30 hammers in a galley eot187, then can put about 10 hpt in after that.
- Agincourt can put about 25 hpt into galleys, although I'd planned for it to start on Oxford.
- Endor can complete a galley eot188, then can put 16 hpt into more boats.
- All our other coastal cities are too busy or too crap to produce much.


I'm assuming we'll just use veteran units from our campaign, but the units to complete in Issy can mostly be Amphibious too. This is Ichabod's stack right now.


I think your Cuir suggestion is possible, but I don't think it's necessary. If Mack was going to take those cities he'd have done it this turn, he's going to see to TBS instead... Even if he was being more aggressive I don't think Toledo is worth a GG. It's just got a single crab and some villages. I don't think there will be much promo-healing for Suttree even if he turns auto-promote on, probably the most annoying thing he could do now is move the spears out of the city and onto some hills, but even that doesn't cause us too much grief.


Power and demos

[Dhalphir]

Once you wipe out suttree whats the plan?

[Fintourist]

Once you wipe out suttree whats the plan?

The big picture is probably this:

1. If mack/dtay/anybody attacks us in ~10 turns we defend until we die
2. If it seems possible that our close neighbors give us 20 turns, we try to capture ~5 cities from Ichabod. That won't really change anything, but well, 25 cities is better than 20, aaand it's a lot more fun than just waiting to die. Assuming that our attack is successful we try to look for further opportunities to improve our position, but then we probably notice that there once again aren't really any.. Then we just try to be as ready as possible to benefit from any miracles (such as one of our neighbors collapsing totally), but most likely it will just mean prolonging our existence
3. Our actual death can happen very quickly in a similar way as TBS is going down (all the neighbors seem to be taking their share) or it can be mostly executed by mack, who eventually switches from his current economy-military balance into "full military mode" and wipes us with industrial units.

I'm actually not sure if I'm being pessimistic, realistic or optimistic..

[Dhalphir]

I think it's far more likely that any war with Mack against you will probably cost him so much that Pindicator will run away with the victory while annexing Bacchus and Bigwyn/Azza.

[Fintourist]

I think it's far more likely that any war with Mack against you will probably cost him so much that Pindicator will run away with the victory while annexing Bacchus and Bigwyn/Azza.

Maybe.. But our border with Mack is so long that defending it will be really difficult/impossible and assuming that mack does not screw up things his tech & MFG edge will make warring with us just a formality eventually. But what you probably mean is that Pindicooters neighbors become easy targets before Mack can easily eat us, so yeah, maybe. When looking from Pindicooters perspective Bacchus could surely be an easy-ish target, Bigwyn maybe too if warring with Azza has weakened them. Commodore (& dtay (& plako & mack)) all have resources to last longer than we do assuming they are not asleep.

Pindicooters have potentially the same problem as we do with their central location although they got so much resources from Nakor that they can manage it. What I mean is that if both Commodore & Bigwyn decide to fight with them they are pretty much out of luck when compared to e.g. mack & plako, who only have a single neighbor on their continent (at least in couple of turns when suttree is gone).

[Dhalphir]

i think that pindicooter will easily be able to absorb bigwyn if they struck now, just before the captured azza cities start contributing.

so would it be accurate to say that your plan from this point forward is to make opportunistic gains against your weaker/vulnerable neighbours, but otherwise make yourself as thorny a meal for mackoti as possible?

[Old Harry]

Bigger and Lewwyn are pretty hot on warfare, so without a decent tech edge I don't see Pindicooter taking them quickly (I haven't checked recently but I don't think they have all that much military tech, which is why, even as Vikings they couldn't prevail against a Mackoti who was pre-occupied with us as well). I think the big lessons to learn from Mack and Pindicooter (and to a lesser extent Plako, thanks to your decent defense) are to pick your opponents very carefully and totally overwhelm them when you do attack (something we've only just managed to do to Suttree now, a hundred turns after first getting into conflict with him). Anything else just means a huge military buildup, sending the costs of your gains through the roof.

I think that Mack's attack on us was to see how easy a target we'd be (and possibly a bit provoked by our refusal to open borders with him all game). Realising that we aren't that tasty he's moved on to TBS and will probably concentrate on getting his territory productive until he's at a tech advantage we just can't cope with (Destroyers and Infantry? Cavalry? He likes 2-movers, so I'd guess the latter...)

Anyhow, while we're waiting for our ultimate demise I think it behooves us to have a bit of fun with our army... Ichabod is our only neighbour left that I'd consider weaker/vulnerable, so that's where our focus needs to be. If the war goes as well as possible it could be a move to put us back in with a chance. (Of course if it goes badly then we could be accused of throwing the game to Mack, but we wouldn't be the worst culprits of that .)

Trouble is that putting Mackdicooter's PB13 lessons into practice against Ichabod (devour your opponent quickly and totally) is going to be nigh-on impossible given the geography, so we'll probably have to go for our much derided (I presume) cripple-and-leave-him-to-fester tactic that failed so badly with Suttree...

Edit: I guess Fintourist is saying we should aim for the 5 cities on our island - I think we should also try for the city on dtay's island, then offer to swap it with the other city there or sell it to Dtay, just to make for nicer borders... Also we should burn as many of his mainland coastal cities as possible to keep control of the water.

[Fintourist]

so would it be accurate to say that your plan from this point forward is to make opportunistic gains against your weaker/vulnerable neighbours, but otherwise make yourself as thorny a meal for mackoti as possible?

Pretty much Although we probably don't make us 100 % thorny immediately and try to develop our economy a bit just in case miracles start happening and we are longer than expected around (or just to be at least a bit spiky in 50 turns too if we are still alive)

Trouble is that putting Mackdicooter's PB13 lessons into practice against Ichabod (devour your opponent quickly and totally) is going to be nigh-on impossible given the geography, so we'll probably have to go for our much derided (I presume) cripple-and-leave-him-to-fester tactic that failed so badly with Suttree...

You raise the subject that is bugging me a lot when trying to analyze our performance. It's clear that the long suttree conflict pretty much ruined our game (even though I'm satisfied on how well we managed to balance fighting him and keeping up with growth), but I can't decide whether our decision making at the time of our attack was good or bad. Crippling TBSJ for more land worked very nicely for dtay and crippling Serdoa/Dhalphir worked nicely for plako. Were we just unlucky that suttree reacted differently than TBSJ or Dhalphir or was the situation somehow totally different and we should have realized it?

Edit: I guess Fintourist is saying we should aim for the 5 cities on our island - I think we should also try for the city on dtay's island, then offer to swap it with the other city there or sell it to Dtay, just to make for nicer borders... Also we should burn as many of his mainland coastal cities as possible to keep control of the water.

Yeah, I haven't dreamed of taking more than those 5 cities on our island and maybe razing 1-3 coastal cities (interesting point about dtay island). I feel that this attack only makes sense if we can take those cities quickly and then shift our focus back to defending our core and trust that naval defence is enough to protect us from Ichabod's revenge. Before we can dream of capturing any mainland cities we need Ichabod to pretty much lose his whole army in a fight with WilliamLP.

[Krill]

Cripple and leave to fester works, just depends how you do it.

For example, in PB games azza tends to die a lot, but the only game his conqueror managed to win was in PB5 when I killed him using that tactic. Basically need to be able to cripple him, and then manage any aggression from him and from your other neighbours, so you can build up again, defend and consume him at hte same time 25 odd turns down the road. You had to do that and contend with mackoti, which is the main reason that tactic isn't the easiest to pull off.