Well, in a hypothetical scenario where I refrain from taking these workers and get a peaceful border with Gaspar until, like, T120 I, of course, would be better off. But what is the probability of such scenario? I would estimate it as very low. What would happen if they kept workers? For start, I think they would have the Oracle like 10 turns earlier; they would have an access to cheap forges 10 turns earlier; they would be able to build settlers instead of replacement workers and would have more cities and would have them earlier. They would be considerably more developed then in current universe. On the other hand, I would be slightly weaker as I wouldn't have two free workers.
Now, all these wouldn't matter for me at all if they remained peaceful; with Darius I would outtech them anyway at some point. But would they remain peaceful? I don't think so. Just about now they would hit a window where their relative advantage over me is the highest, later I would inevitably start to run away in techs. They would attack me, at least that would be a rational thing for them to do. The war was pretty difficult with weakened Gaspar. What would be the war with a much stronger one? Imagine what would happen if I allowed him to keep his workers and then would be attacked anyway. I would feel myself like a complete idiot, I think.
Now, theoretically I have no way of knowing if Gaspar was planning this attack from start; but lurkers comments indicate that my worker steal was a trigger for his actions. Well, even if he wasn't planning an attack back then, it matters not. He still could have changed his mind by now and attack me for some other reason. May be he would have strong enough army to actually defeat me. May be my early attack saved me from elimination by weakening dangerous rival. Who knows? And how things like that can be known?
And it leads to a more general point. My philosophy in games is never to try to read opponent's mind. May be some other person can build an accurate model of rival's consciousness and make a prediction like "he would attack me later if I steal his workers but wouldn't if I don't do it". But this person is definitely not me. I can't make such predictions, I can't know how my actions, amongst miriad of other factors, would affect other people's plans and that's why I simply try to improve my own position and decrease my dependency on my opponent. I have stolen two workers; and now I'm second in GNP even after the worst possible scenario has happened. Where would I be if I didn't steal the workers and the worst possible scenario would then have happened? I bet my position would be worse.
Now, all these wouldn't matter for me at all if they remained peaceful; with Darius I would outtech them anyway at some point. But would they remain peaceful? I don't think so. Just about now they would hit a window where their relative advantage over me is the highest, later I would inevitably start to run away in techs. They would attack me, at least that would be a rational thing for them to do. The war was pretty difficult with weakened Gaspar. What would be the war with a much stronger one? Imagine what would happen if I allowed him to keep his workers and then would be attacked anyway. I would feel myself like a complete idiot, I think.
Now, theoretically I have no way of knowing if Gaspar was planning this attack from start; but lurkers comments indicate that my worker steal was a trigger for his actions. Well, even if he wasn't planning an attack back then, it matters not. He still could have changed his mind by now and attack me for some other reason. May be he would have strong enough army to actually defeat me. May be my early attack saved me from elimination by weakening dangerous rival. Who knows? And how things like that can be known?
And it leads to a more general point. My philosophy in games is never to try to read opponent's mind. May be some other person can build an accurate model of rival's consciousness and make a prediction like "he would attack me later if I steal his workers but wouldn't if I don't do it". But this person is definitely not me. I can't make such predictions, I can't know how my actions, amongst miriad of other factors, would affect other people's plans and that's why I simply try to improve my own position and decrease my dependency on my opponent. I have stolen two workers; and now I'm second in GNP even after the worst possible scenario has happened. Where would I be if I didn't steal the workers and the worst possible scenario would then have happened? I bet my position would be worse.
