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March Madness: Civ4 AI Edition

Winner: Pacal
Runner-up: Elizabeth
First to die: Frederick
Surviving Civs: 4
Victory type: Space
Victory date: T310

Just copy pasted Bob's predictions and changed victory date.
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Winning Leader: Elizabeth
Second Place: De Gaulle
First to Die: Pacal
Surviving Civs: 3
Victory Type/Date: Diplomatic 307
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Winner: Darius
Runner-up: Elizabeth
First to Die: Freddie
Survivors: 3
Victory: Space
Date: T313
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Winner: Pacal
Runner-up: Elizabeth
First to die: Frederick
Surviving Civs: 3
Victory type: Space
Victory date: T317
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Winner: Julius Caesar
Runner-up: Pacal
First to die: Frederick
Surviving Civs: 4
Victory type: Space
Victory date: T314
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Winner: Pacal
Runner Up: Caesar
First to Die: DeGaulle
Surviving Civs: 4
Victory Types/Date: Diplomatic: T307
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Winning Leader: Pericles
Second Place: Pacal
First to Die: Frederick
Surviving Civs: 4
Victory Type/Date: Cultural t312
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Going by random.org here are my picks:

Winner: Julius Caesar (4 of 6 in alphabetical order)
Runner-up: Charles de Gaulle (2 of 6)
First to die: Lizzie (3 of 6 and god hates the queen don't'cha know)
Surviving Civs: 5
Victory type: Domination (3 out of 6 alphabetical order, Conquest out due to the no. surviving civs. I'd actually like to see this happen with five civs. I included religious diplo as a seperate win condition to UN, because frankly it is.)
Victory date: T389 (I set a minimum of 200 turns and a max of 500)

We'll see what happens here. Hopefully the blindfolded monkey will beat the market again!
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(April 2nd, 2014, 12:25)Sullla Wrote: It's easier to get a high per-game average with 2 entries than it is with 6 entries. We could see a situation where people intentionally refuse to submit predictions, in order to preserve a high per-game average. Keeping a running tally does the opposite

The usual solution for such rankings is to total each player's best X entries where X is somewhat smaller than the full sample size. That's how things like tennis and golf rankings work, your best 14 tournaments over a year count. So players have leeway to miss a fraction of events, and are never at risk of hurting their total with more participation. So perhaps 6 of the 8 in your first round here or 9 of the 12 games in all. Don't know if you want to manage that kind of complexity here but that's how to do it if you do.
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Winning Leader: Elizabeth
Second Place: Pericles
First to Die: Frederick
Surviving Civs: 3
Victory Type/Date: Domination t310

Pacal and Julius will double team Frederick and kill him off pretty quickly. But this won't give either of them much land to work with. Meanwhile, De Gaulle will butt heads with Pericles and fail miserably, and Elizabeth and Darius will take advantage of the large amount of land to the west and expand far and wide. Liz and Darius will then double team Pacal, Liz taking the lion's share of the land, while Pericles with the help of Julius kills De Gaulle. Liz will continue up through Rome with Pericles support, and win by domination.
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