Winner: Catherine
Runner Up: Victoria
First to Die: Ghandi
Survivors: 3
Victory: Spaceship, T310
The first interesting question which springs to mind is whether Ghandi being completely surrounded with two neighbors who like to found their own religions plus Stalin's brand of aggressive evil will wind up being the worst playstyle/start mismatch of the entire tournament.
Among the leaders who don't look like dead men walking, Catherine has a ton of space and the traits to grab it, and I think Victoria winds up with enough land for financial to give her a boost; she should wind up in religious sync with at least one of her immediate neighbors through natural spread, and Stalin has to go through India before peace weight can cause her serious problems, so not enough military problems to drag her down. I'm calling Catherine, Victoria, and Vicky's hypothetical co-religionist as the survivors, with victory type picked pretty much at random.
Alrighty, been following this series for a while and I think it's time I threw my hat into the ring, too. (My gut proved fairly accurate in the last one! We'll see if I can keep it up when it actually means something. )
Overly analytical rationalization for my quite possibly horribly wrong predictions:
I think Gandhi is pretty much a shoo-in for first to go. Leaders bound to hate him for a different religion to the north and south, and the aggressive Russian leaders to the east. Too many directions he can get slammed from, and by too many leaders likely to do so.
As far as winners... hm. I think Saladin and Charlemagne will be a bit too focused on hating those who don't share their religion (i.e. each other, most likely) to really do much of anything else besides squabble. If past games have proven anything, it's that overly aggressive leaders tend to implode from getting in over their heads - so as powerful as the Russian civs are liable to be, I think Catherine's high-maintenance diplo penalties and Stalin's aggression will give them difficulty.
I think Victoria's in the best position here. Three civs forming a barrier between her and the aggressive Russians, all of which have an affinity for religion and are bound to spread them to her - she's likely to have an ally among them. The only potential problem is if it ends up being Gandhi, but Victoria's not so attached to her religion that she wouldn't be willing to jump ship for Saladin or Charlemagne if they make the effort to spread to her. And while everyone around her squabbles with each other, her Financial trait will lead her to a tech advantage. She does run the risk of getting squeezed too tightly, but being Financial, I think she'll be able to cope decently enough, especially if she wises up and sneaks in a blow on Gandhi herself. She's got my vote.
For second place, I'm inclined to lean toward one of the Russians - they're aggressive, but not bonkers about it like Montezuma or Shaka. They'll do well, but I'm not convinced it'll be enough to win. My gut wants to give the nod to Catherine over Stalin, simply because she'll be able to grab a lot of land faster than he will.
Winner: Victoria
Runner-up: Catherine
First to Die: Gandhi
Number of Leaders Surviving: Three (sorry Saladin, Charlemagne, I don't think Protective's gonna save you when Russia comes a-knockin'.)
Victory Type: Space Race
Victory Date: Uh. Let's go with Turn 316, I like the look of that number.
Winner: Catherine
Runner Up: Victoria
First to Die: Gandhi
Number of Leaders Surviving: 3
Victory Type: Space
Victory Date: 309
Seems like a low variance between picks this game.
In Soviet Russia, Civilization Micros You!
"Right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must."
“I have never understood why it is "greed" to want to keep the money you have earned but not greed to want to take somebody else's money.”