March Madness: Civ4 AI Edition

[Sullla]

Anyone can follow the AI Survivor contest from the website alone. I hope that everyone has noticed that the preview sections are also part of each game writeup. They're right at the top of each page, after all. However, the interactive picking contest portion of the event is being run through these forums here at Realms Beyond, and it wouldn't make sense to do otherwise. My website doesn't have its own forum, and it would be strange to change things halfway through the event. If the RB forums are blocked at work, well, that's why there's 2-3 days to get in a prediction entry. I think that's more than enough time.

There also seems to be some confusion about how the wildcard system works. We have 16 leaders now qualified for the three playoff games, out of 18 total spots. That leaves two spots remaining. The plan is to throw all of the leaders from the opening round games who didn't die into one large game, and have them sort things out themselves. There's no reason to play favorites here or pick subjectively, I'll simply set up a game between Peter, Zara, Qin, Genghis Khan, Washington, Frederick, Darius, and Asoka. The top two advance for our final playoff spots. I'll set that up for you to pick tomorrow.

In the results for Game Eight, all of the predictions were various levels of being wildly off. No one who wrote something out was particularly close. I'm no better than the rest of you either - I thought going into the game that Hannibal and Cyrus would go to war, and the winner of that conflict would dominate the game. Didn't happen. So let's skip right to the actual results chart:



- This was the lowest-scoring game that we've had to date. It was extremely tough to pick the winner and runner up, or at least we all did a poor job of it. Low scores everywhere and a lot of zeroes.

- Mao was picked correctly by only two people, Becko and Yell0w. Most popular were Hannibal (18 picks) and Bismarck (15 picks), the field was split pretty evenly between them. Asoka, Churchill, and Cyrus each had zero picks to win.

- Cyrus was similarly unpopular for the runner up spot, only Parkin and RiverBabble were the ones to get this correct. There was a mismatch of many different picks for this spot, I didn't see any clear pattern. Runner up is arguably the hardest category to pick.

- First to die was where everyone did the best. Churchill was the most popular pick, taken by almost half of the entries. Asoka was almost as popular with 14 entries. Most of the scoring came from this category and the next one.

- Surviving civs had the same number of correct entries, 18 out of 38 people correctly picking 3 civs to survive. That's become a recurring theme for these games. 4 was the next most popular choice, but we had as many as 6 and as few as 2 in other entries.

- Only about a quarter of the ballots got the Diplomatic victory right. Spaceship was the overwhelming most popular choice (24 picks).

- The incredibly late finish crushed all of us. Becko scored a single point with the Turn 403 prediction, and that was it. One point from 38 entries! Based on the past games we've seen, this finish date looks like a wild outlier result.

Looking at the individual scoring:

* Yell0w tops the round with 13 points, congratulations. This was the lowest high score we've had in any single round. Becko, Molach, and TheSunIsDark were the only other entries to hit double digits, each of them tying with 11 points.

* This was our first round ever where no one picked both of the leaders who advanced to the playoffs. In each previous game, at least one person got them both, even if the order was reversed for first/second place.

* We had seven submitted ballots that scored 0 points. Umm, let's hope that doesn't happen again. This was a tough game.

* In the overall standings, Katon remains in first place, with Dantski, Ceiliazul, and Hesmyrr extremely close behind.

Tomorrow I'll post the information for the Wildcard game, and we'll go from there. Thanks for your thoughts everyone, hope you're having fun.

[Yell0w]

Yeah!

Well I looked at the peace weight in correlation to map positions. And determined that Mao was in the best position correctly. I also thought that Asoka and Wang Kong wouldn't like Bismarck and kill him together, I debated whether to pick Asoka or Wang Kong as follow up. Well that was pretty far off. Nice to get the high score once though, it feels to me that it is a combination of peace weight, map position and luck and that traits and UU/UB almost never play a role (though Pretorians seemed to make a difference for Julius Cesar IIRCC).

Though my analysis is probably incorrect since I'm not even in the top 20

[Ceiliazul]

I propose the following scoring:

playoffs (incl wildcard) (picked after Sulla's intro for each game)
-winner/runner = 10 points each

champ game (picked after Sulla's intro)
-winner/runner = 20 points each


called shot:
-declare the champ now (before first playoff game) for extra 30 points
-if your declared winner takes runner up its worth 20 extra points

[Ceiliazul]

The goal is to keep more people in the running for an exciting finish, in case that seems arbitrary.

[TheSunIsDark]

Just realised that mine is almost the same as Molach's! Only differences were top two the other way round and finish date.

[Sullla]

It's time to bring back the surviving civs from the initial round of competition. Before we get into the true playoffs, we have this initial Wildcard game between all of the leaders who didn't qualify in one of the top two spots in their respective games. These are the third place or fourth place leaders, often AIs who barely managed to avoid death by the skin of their teeth. Rather than calling this the wildcard game, it would probably be more accurate to refer to it as the "Last Chance" game. This is their final opportunity to avoid the headman's chopping block. No longer is it enough simply to avoid death, only the top two finishers from this match can move on to the true playoff round. Let's meet our returning competitiors once again.


Peter

We'll be going through this group in game order, not alphabetical order, since it makes it easier to remember each leader. Peter was the third place finisher from all the way back in Game One, where he infamously voted himself out of consideration by voting for Suryavarman in the United Nations. Peter had a strong starting position in that game, and did very little with it. He mostly sat around up in the northern tundra and built a few wonders while Suryavarman ran away with the match. Peter's greatest achievement was not dying and getting himself eliminated. For a quick refresher course on Peter the AI, he's a Russian leader with Expansive and Philosophical traits bringing the Cossack and Research Institute. Peter AI has science and growth flavors, he is one of the more aggressive leaders in the game (8/10 aggression rating), and he has an extremely low peace rate as an "Evil" leader. He's actually rated lower than Stalin and at the same ranking as Mao. Peter will need to be more active if he intends to follow in the successful footsteps of Catherine and Stalin.


Zara Yacob

Zara Yacob was the third place survivor from the crazy ending to Game Two. Zara managed to lose nearly his entire empire to Mehmed, and was down to his final two remaining cities, only to see Mansa Musa sweep in and rescue him from certain demise. The Ethiopian leader even managed to get back up to nine cities by the end of the game, as his entire core was liberated or gifted back to him. Zara probably didn't deserve his third place standing in Game Two, but he finds himself in this wildcard spot regardless, granted a second life in the competition. Zara the AI reigns over the Ethiopian Oromo Warrior and Stele with Creative and Organized traits. He has growth and religious flavors, generally places a high emphasis on religious stuff, and has a medium aggression rating (5.6 out of 10). Zara's peace weight places him in the middle of the scale, as an unaligned "Neutral" party. We'll see if he has better religious luck this time around.


Qin

Qin Shi Huang suffered a similar fate to Zara in Game Three. He was also down to a mere two cities at one point, pushed to the brink of death by attacks from Isabella and Joao, only to somehow secure peace with all aggressors and then reclaim lost cities via liberations and culture flipping. Qin didn't dominate in the least, but he did manage to survive. Perhaps his Protective trait helped him in that regard. It wasn't an impressive performance in any case, which is why Qin finds himself here, with his last chance to move on. Qin AI brings the Chinese Cho-Ko-Nu and Pavilion along with Industrious and Protective traits. He has production and growth flavors; strangely, that's three straight leaders with growth flavor for research, which is one of the uncommon ones. Maybe it helps the AI (?) Qin AI likes to build wonders, he has a low aggression rating (3.9 out of 10), and he's rated as an "Evil" leader according to peace weight. How's Qin going to do without Boudica around to save his behind?


Genghis Khan Temujin

This was one of the leaders that I wanted to see again in another game. Temujin had one of the weakest starts in any of the eight games from the opening round, a cramped and tundra-bound position in the southeast corner of Game Four's continent. He warred repeatedly with his neighbors to conquer more territory, with only limited success. However, Temujin's determined and desperate defense against Shaka bought him enough time for Huayna Capac to come in and smash the Zulus, allowing Temujin to survive to the finish. It was a gutsy performance with limited resources, and Temujin deserved another chance to strut his stuff from a less crippled position. Temujin the AI has the Keshik and Ger unique items to play around with, paired with Aggressive and Imperialistic traits. He has a single flavor: MILITARY. Temujin is off the charts aggressive with a rating of 9.5 out of 10, he loves to build units and demand tribute, and his peace weight score sits at dead zero, this game's version of Demonic Evil. It's never a boring game with the great khan around, and I'm eager to see what he's going to do here.


Washington

Here's a leader different from Temujin in just about every way possible. Washington was the only leader in the whole competition to avoid war completely. 51 out of the 52 leaders found themselves in at least one conflict, but Washington avoided it entirely in Game Five. I guess he took the historical Washington's advice to avoid foreign entanglements very seriously. Therefore, there isn't too much to judge Washington AI on from his initial outing. He sat in the southeast corner of the map building cities and not really doing much of anything in that game. Anyway, Washington AI has the Navy SEAL and Mall unique items along with Expansive and Charismatic traits. (Good luck with that unique stuff, buddy.) He has military and growth flavors, with the rest of his numbers being very average across the board. Washington AI has a rather low aggression rating (4.3 out of 10) and he gets classified as a "Good" leader in the peace weight scale. Hopefully Washington will be more active in this game and actually do something.


Frederick

The first of two leaders from Game Six, Frederick was arguably the strongest third place finisher from any of our opening round of games. Frederick had a cramped starting position at the top of the map, and I pegged him for an early demise when I was watching his match. Instead, Frederick went on to dominate his neighbors culturally, and carved out a strong patch of territory with minimal fighting, most of his cities won through cultural push. He built a strong economy, and was one of the tech leaders at the end of Game Six. With all that said, Frederick benefitted enormously from having weak neighbors on his border, and the endless warring between Darius and Pacal that dragged down both of Frederick's nearby competitors. He may be faced with a harder task here. Frederick AI has the Panzer and Assembly Plant unique stuff, narrowly losing to Washington in the "crummy civilization" category. His traits are Philosophical and Organized. Frederick has a single research flavor: PRODUCTION, the only one in the game with this weighting. He doesn't like to build units (2/10 rating), he has a low aggression rating (4/10), and Frederick is considered to be a "Good" leader with the same high peace weight as Washington. Frederick wants to be left alone in these games, and he mostly achieved that in his opening match. We'll see if his luck continues in this game.


Darius

Darius returns from Game Six, same as Frederick, but his performance was significantly weaker the first time around. While Frederick finished in a strong third place, with a minor chance to take a spaceship win if things lined up right, Darius was hopelessly behind and a total non-entity. Darius had a tough spot in a cramped position, true, however he failed to achieve anything at all. He spent the whole game warring back and forth with Pacal, trading units and achieving nothing of note. The only reason that Darius survived was his high peace weight and therefore excellent diplomatic relations with his neighbors, Elizabeth and Frederick. This was mostly due to dumb luck; with more aggressive leaders nearby, Darius and his tiny power rating surely would have been attacked and devoured. In any case, Darius has incredible economic traits in Civ4, with the Financial + Organized pairing, and he gets a stay on execution here with another chance to survive and advance. Darius gets the Persian civilization's Immortal and Apothecary unique units. Darius AI has gold and growth flavors for research. (Seriously, so many growth flavors in this group!) Darius likes to build wonders (8/10), he's slightly below average with an aggression rating of 5.2 out of 10, and Darius is considered a "Good" leader via peace weight, same spot as Washington and Frederick. The three of them will be predisposed to be best buds with one another. Unfortunately for them, Qin and Peter and especially Temujin will not like them at all. Darius will need to do a lot more to make his way out of this game.


Asoka

Asoka is our final returning leader, falling a mere four turns short of a Cultural victory in Game Eight. (There are no returning leaders from Game Seven; the Russians killed them all off!) Asoka was far behind Mao and Cyrus in his game, but almost managed to sneak out an extremely late win via the unexpected culture route. If he had turned on the culture slider at all - like seriously, running the thing even a little bit! - then he'd have taken the victory and Cyrus would be occupying this spot. Instead, Asoka will have to try to work his diplomatic magic once again, and parlay his pacifistic tendencies into an alliance with other like-minded leaders. Asoka AI comes along with the Indian civilization's Fast Worker and Mausoleum, and he has Spiritual and Organized traits. He has religious and science flavors, along with a love of building wonders (8/10 rating) and little interest in units (2/10). Asoka AI loves religion and will often found his own faith. He's not aggressive at all, with a rating of only 3.7 out of 10 and a very high peace weight as a "Good" leader in alignment. Asoka will need to find common cause with the game's other peaceful leaders, as his obsession with wonders and disdain for training units can otherwise get him into trouble very quickly.

Here's another game with a sharp division between pacifist leaders and aggressive leaders along the dynamics of the peace weight scale. Washington, Frederick, Darius, and Asoka all generally want to be left alone, most of them emphasizing wonder construction and cultural stuff. They find themselves inhabiting the same world as a bunch of rabid wolves, in the form of Qin, Peter, and Genghis Khan Temujin. Especially Temujin, who could start a blood feud at an ice cream social. Zara is somewhere in the middle, not fully landing in either one of those two groups. The peaceful leaders have the stronger economic traits, but the militaristic leaders have the higher aggression ratings and the killer instinct (for the AI, anyway!) Someone is going to get out in front and start to snowball this game. Only two leaders can move on to the main playoff games from this point. Who's it going to be?

Starting map, spoilered for size:

Here is our current bracket:



You guys know the drill regarding picks for now. Go ahead and submit your entries for:

Winner
Runner Up
First to Die
Number of Leaders Surviving
Victory Date and Type

We'll leave this game open until Saturday evening (my time). Results should then be posted on Sunday, and we can begin the playoff round next week on Monday. Good luck to everyone.

[Sian]

Winner: Zara
Runner Up: Frederick
First to Die: Asoka (to close to Ghengis which would likely hate him with a vengence
Number of Leaders Surviving: 4
Victory Date and Type: Space, t321

[Cyneheard]

Prediction in spoilers.

Winner: Peter
Runner Up: Washington
First to Die: Asoka
Number of Leaders Surviving: 4
Victory Date and Type: Space, T335

Genghis + Zara dogpile Asoka for the first kill; Qin refuses to join the dogpile because of shared Hinduism. Washington happily sits in his corner, and Bismarck buddies up with Darius in the SE, but Peter wins by eventually grabbing lots of Qin/Genghis/Zara land and teching to space for the win.

[Bobchillingworth]

Wow, first map we've seen where every AI has good land-


Winner: Zara
Runner Up: Frederick
First to Die: Asoka
Number of Leaders Surviving: 5
Victory Date and Type: Space, T322



Edit: I swear I didn't purposely select picks almost identical to Sian's! I didn't even read his post until I made mine.

[Sareln]

Winner: Genghis Khan
Runner Up: Peter
First to Die: Asoka
Number of Survivors: 3
Victory Date & Type: Domination, T310