March Madness: Civ4 AI Edition

[Sullla]

Results time:



- We had a lot of different picks for the winner. Zara was the most popular with 11 picks, but Genghis Khan was just behind with 10 picks, and Frederick and Peter also drew some attention. Washington was the only AI not to get tabbed by anyone, the other seven leaders were picked by at least one person to take this category.

- The runner up position continues to be the hardest to get correct. We only had 3 entries with Qin here. Frederick was the most popular entry here, followed by Washington.

- On the other hands, our group continues to have good luck with the First to Die category. Three quarters of you correctly predicted that Asoka would be the unlucky fellow to fall first. The map that we got probably made this the easiest category for this game.

- Having 8 starting leaders seemed to throw everyone off for this game, and we had only two people correctly predict that 5 leaders would survive. I think the Large map size caused more survivors this time around. 3 leaders and 4 leaders to survive continue to be the most popular choices here.

- Spaceship was our most popular victory type, with just under half of the entries getting this correct. The rest were split pretty evenly between Domination and Diplomatic. I think this was the first game where no one predicted Culture.

- Lots and lots of people were close to the Turn 326 victory date without anyone hitting it exactly. David Corperial and Yell0w were only a single turn away! Very close on that one. In all, an impressive 58% of entries were within 10 turns, and another 29% within 25 turns.

Regarding individual entries:

* Bobchillingworth has our high score of the round, with 21 total points. Well done Bob!

* We had two entries with a perfect sweep of the leader categories, Amelia and new arrival Gawdzak. Both were able to pick Qin as the runner up, which was the hardest category for this particular game. Lots of others had Zara + Asoka without getting Qin.

* Brian Shanahan's pure random ballot unfortunately flamed out again with another 0 point score. In four games, complete chance has resulted in 0 points, 0 points, 0 points, and 21 points (high score of the round). It feels like... random chance.

* regoarrarr picked a German leader who wasn't even competing as his winning leader. I left this as-written, since it didn't affect the score. (He wasn't the only one. There were a lot of other bizarre spellings for the leaders, which I changed to reflect in-game names here.)

* We have a new overall leader: Ceiliazul has moved into first by a tiny margin, with Katon, Hesmyrr, and Dantski all extremely close behind. Of course not everyone has submitted entries for all games, so make of this what you will. When the whole competition is closed, I'll try to tally up overall score, playoff score, per-game score, best five games, and so on. Too much to do for every round though.

Thanks again to all of you for taking part in the contest. There wouldn't be much point in doing these games otherwise.

[Lord Parkin]

Woot, a lucky victory date guess means I'm still clinging onto my top 10 position - though only just. If only I'd been around to bet on the first two games, I might have been in the top 3.

[antisocialmunky]

Well, we can always use our average to extrapolate how we would have done if we did every single game.

[Ituralde]

Too bad I missed this round. The writeup was very interesting to read none the less.

After reading about Peter wiping his stack, because he didn't bombard the defenses, I now understand more why the AI will sometimes take ages to bomb down the defenses.
It seems to be some kind of all or nothing approach though, maybe a middle ground would be best. But then this is Civ AI we're talking about here!

[Sullla]

Here is our current bracket for the playoff round:



We had some requests for a prediction round for the playoffs. This will be running alongside the standard per-game predictions that we've been doing thus far. If you'd like to enter your thoughts on how this bracket will shake out, then go ahead and predict the following:

* The 6 leaders who will make the championship game (10 points each)
* The overall runner-up (25 points)
* The overall winner (50 points)

Remember that the top two leaders from each playoff game advance to the championship game, so you are essentially picking the winner and runner up from each of the three playoff games. Also keep in mind that only two leaders from each playoff game can move on, so it's impossible for Suryavarman and Huayna and Catherine to all make the final. Only two from each game. You're shooting in the dark here without being able to see the maps for each game, so take your best guesses. We'll keep scoring for this little venture alongside the normal scoring for each game. If you saw this thread after the earlier games had already begun, and were hesitant to put in a prediction for that reason, now's a good time to join in.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

In addition to that, we're also ready for the predictions for the first playoff game.


Suryavarman

Suryavarman has been waiting in the wings for ages, all the way since Game One. Back in that initial match, he had a tough central starting position surrounded by other AI leaders on all sides. The Buddhist and Hindu holy cities even popped up right on the borders of Khmer territory, stealing more tiles away from Suryavarman's control. Despite that seeming handicap, Suryavarman was able to go on to the attack and reach a position of strength. He took out Ramessess first, and then ended the game by crushing Napoleon in a ruthless show of strength. It was one of the best AI performances we saw in the opening round of games. Suryavarman has one of the best trait pairings in the game with Creative/Expansive traits, and his Khmer civilization brings the Ballista Elephant and Baray. As an AI, Suryavarman has gold and culture flavors. He emphasizes wonders quite a bit (8/10 rating), but also has a decent unit emphasis rating, and asks for help frequently. Anyone who turns down Suryavarman's many requests gets a special -2 diplo penalty, similar to the one that exists for Catherine AI. Suryavarman is well above average in aggression rating at 7.6 out of 10, and he's rated very low on the peace weight scale as an "Evil" leader. He's one of the most miliaristic of the leaders with good economic traits, making for a dangerous opponent.


Huayna Capac

Huayna Capac returns as the winner from Game Four, where he took our first Domination victory of the competition over a field of crazy warmongers. This was the game where Huayna was up against Shaka, Montezuma, and Genghis Khan, and he bested all of them in the end. Huayna played the diplomatic situation very well in that match, letting other leaders exhaust themselves in unproductive wars and then sweep in to grab all the spoils at the end. Once they grew big, there was no stopping the Incans. Huayna Capac benefits from having some outstanding traits with the Financial/Industrious pairing, and his Incan civ has the strong Quechua along with the best unique building in Civ4, the Terrace. Huayna is often considered to have the best restricted combination of leader and civilization in the game. As an AI, Huayna has gold and production flavors. He also loves to build wonders (8/10 rating) but has a bit less emphasis on units compared to Suryavarman. Huayna places a high emphasis on religion, and with his Mysticism starting tech, he's likely to found Buddhism or Hinduism. He's a bit above average in aggression rating (6.7 out of 10) and also gets rated as an "Evil" leader via peace weight. I'm starting to notice a pattern here of AI leaders with strong economic traits who are also very willing to go to war. That may be the winning formula for AI behavior.


Catherine

Catherine is back again after her own Domination victory in Game Seven. This was perhaps the most impressive win of the opening round, since Catherine killed off all competitors other than her Russian partner, Stalin. Only two survivors from that bloodbath of a game! Catherine declared war against all five of the other leaders in that particular match, and showed her willingness to attack anyone and everyone in order to get what she wanted. Catherine has the trait comination of Creative and Imperialistic, one that's well suited for gaining an edge early and then snowballing to victory. Her Russian civ has the Cossack and Research Institute unique items. As an AI, Catherine has culture and military flavors. She has extremely high ratings in the asking for help (10/10) and demanding tribute (8/10) categories, and any refusal to accept those demands carries a special -2 diplo penalty. As I mentioned in the earlier Game Seven writeup for Catherine, she has the AI personality of the obsessive high-maintenance girlfriend, always demanding something, never explaining her actions. Catherine AI is also slightly above average in aggression rating (6.7 out of 10) and she too gets rated as an "Evil" leader according to peace weight. Like Suryavarman and Huayna, Catherine can declare war at "Pleased" relations. These three leaders are going to be something to watch in this one.


Justinian

Justinian is the first of our runner up leaders, finishing second to Mansa Musa in Game Two. He was written off by many in that game due to his tundra start in the far north, but Justinian managed to make himself a major contender through his cataphract-fueled conquest of Hatshepsut. That said, it does bear mentioning that Justinian only took second place due to the collapse of Mehmed in that game. He was lucky that Mansa Musa was on the other side of the world! Anyway, Justinian is noticeably weaker in terms of traits compared to our first three leaders, with Spiritual and Imperialistic for his pairing. This may be why Justinian finished second and not first. His Byzantine civilization has a key trump card in the form of the Cataphract unique unit, probably the second or third best in the game. The Byzantines also have the Hippodrome, not that anyone cares about that. Justinian AI uses religious and military flavors for research. He is obsessed with religion, and has a high chance of founding an early faith due to Byzantium's Mysticism starting tech. Justinian has a high unit emphasis (8/10) and he isn't afraid to declare war, with his 7.6 aggression rating. Justinian gets rated as a "Neutral" leader according to peace weight, albeit one that leans slightly towards the evil side. Expect Justinian to stir up plenty of trouble with his religious focus and his cataphracts.


Augustus

Augustus was one of the less memorable leaders from the opening round. He finished second to Lincoln in Game Five, and largely earned his spot by virtue of surviving a series of attacks from Ragnar in the early stages of the game. Augustus made a lot of people sad in the picking contest, where Ragnar was a massive favorite to top the board as the winner of that contest. It did feel as though his runner up position was somewhat of a break of good luck, and I have to say that Augustus was a lot less impressive than some of the other leaders here. Who knows though, maybe he'll show us all in this one. Augustus has the somewhat weak pairing of Imperialistic and Industrious traits. He does get the Roman civilization, however, with its awesome Praetorians (and less awesome Forums). Augustus the AI has production and military flavors. He loves to build wonders (8/10 rating) and otherwise has fairly average scores across the board. Augustus is significantly less aggressive than the rest of this crowd, with a rating of only 4.6 out of 10. He's also considered to be a "Good" leader via peace weight, which could be extremely dangerous given the field of leaders in this game. Augustus may be a marked man amongst his neighbors. The deck is certainly stacked against him in this one.


Cyrus

Cyrus returns from a solid showing in Game Eight, where he finished second to Mao Zedong as sort of a right-hand man to the Chinese leader. Cyrus spent much of that game fighting wars on the other side of the map, contesting cities in German territory thousands of miles away from home. He never spent much effort on the Carthaginians right next door, despite the fact that they each founded separate religions. It was a bizarre game for diplomacy. Cyrus wasn't especially impressive in that game, but he managed to survive over the course of 430 turns of brutal warfare to make it into these playoff rounds. Cyrus has Charismatic and Imperialistic traits, making four leaders in this game sharing Imperialistic. Maybe that one really does help the AI? His Persian civilization has the Immortal and Apothecary unique items, neither one particularly impressive. Cyrus AI uses military and growth flavors. He's another leader with a wonder fetish (8/10) who is otherwise fairly average in ratings. Like most of these leaders, Cyrus is above average in aggression, with a score of 7/10. He's another "Neutral" leader, but like Justinian, a neutral peace weight that leans towards the evil side in alignment. We'll see what Cyrus can make of himself in this match.

Categories are the same as always:

- Winning Leader
- Runner Up
- First to Die
- Number of Leaders to Survive
- Victory Date and Type

The map for this game is in the spoiler below. You should not look at the map for Playoff Game One until after making predictions for the overall playoffs. Obviously it gives away additional information on how to predict the first game. We're on the honor system here, please don't go peeking.

Because there's a lot going on here, I think we'll leave this game open until Friday. You have the rest of the week to get in your thoughts on the overall playoffs, and this particular game. Good luck with your predictions.

[Twinkletoes89]

The 6 leaders who will make the championship game (10 points each) - Huayna Capac, Catherine, Mansa, Mao, Stalin, Boudica
The overall runner-up (25 points) - Mansa Musa
The overall winner (50 points) - Catherine

- Winning Leader - Huayna Capac
- Runner Up - Catherine
- First to Die - Cyrus
- Number of Leaders to Survive - 3
- Victory Date and Type - Spaceship T304

[Commodore]

The 6 champions - Sury, Catherine, Mao, Mansa Musa, Zara Yaqob, Pericles
The Silver Finalist- Mao
The Winner - Mansa Musa

- Winning Leader - Catherine
- Runner Up - Sury
- First to Die - Justine
- Number of Leaders to Survive - 3
- Victory Date and Type - Domination T320

[Lord Parkin]

Alright, I'll take up the challenge of picking the winners of future games. Have not opened the map spoiler yet, will do that after this post.

Of course, so much depends on the map that it's impossible to be certain of anything. If the two favorites happen to start next to each other and end up with different religions, it's likely at least one will be out. Alternatively, a subpar start could easily rule a favourite out of the game, or a great start could allow a surprise entry. That said, here we go.

Playoff Round One

- Suryavarman advances
- Catherine advances

These two definitely seem a cut above the others in their bracket. Barring a weird map or unlucky circumstances where they butt heads too much, they both deserve to head to the finals. My third place pick would be Justinian, who seems to generally do well if he's left alone long enough.

Playoff Round Two

- Mansa Musa advances
- Alexander advances

In my opinion, this is the hardest of the three playoff games to pick. None of the leaders stand out to me, and I haven't been impressed by any of their performances in my own trial games. I've picked Mansa and Alex almost at random, really it could easily be anyone's game.

Playoff Round Three

- Boudica advances
- Brennus advances

I've been impressed by Boudica's consistently decent performances in my own games, so she's a clear candidate to advance to the finals. The other candidate to advance isn't so clear - though I'm betting against Zara and Stalin. Out of Pericles, Brennus and Suleiman, I'm hedging my bets on Brennus.

Championship Game

- Suryavarman wins
- Catherine is runner-up

I feel like this one will be between Sury, Cathy and Boudica. These three leaders have been the most consistently good performers in my own games. I'm more confident in the winner than the runner-up, though really it's a coin toss between the three. (Sullla, any points if we pick the overall winner and runner-up in reverse order?)

[Lord Parkin]

Alright, having seen the map I may as well double down on my prediction.

Winning Leader - Catherine
Runner Up - Sury
First to Die - Augustus
Number of Leaders to Survive - 3
Victory Date and Type - Space T308

Guess at the full ranking:

#1 - Catherine
#2 - Sury
#3 - Justinian
#4 - Huayna
#5 - Cyrus
#6 - Augustus

[regoarrarr]

The 6 leaders who will make the championship game- Huayna Capac, Sury, Mansa, Elizabeth, Pericles, Zara
The overall runner-up - Mansa Musa
The overall winner - Sury


- Winning Leader - Sury
- Runner Up - Huayna
- First to Die - Cyrus
- Number of Leaders to Survive - 4
- Victory Date and Type - Diplo T333

Spoiler for Game 1 map info

Having seen the map, it seems unlikely that Sury and Huayna will finish top 2. I will posit that their shared Buddhist faith will lead them into a shared military struggle against Cyrus - destroying him and then working their way across the board before Huayna (close to if not in the score lead) votes for his buddy Sury for a diplo win