RB PBEM #1 - Mehmed (SPOILERS!)

[Dreylin]

t159 - 1t from attack

Ooooo, Ruff offers spare Incense

Istanbul: Observatory - Infantry
Bursa: Infantry - Infantry
Samsun: Airship - Airship
Gaziantep: Airship - Airship
Sarmatian: Transport - Destroyer
Izmir: Infantry - Machine Gun
Kufah: Airship - Grocer
New Damascus: Harbour - Machine Gun
Mecca: Airship - Levee
Najran: Airship - Infantry
Malatya: Granary - Workboat

So mostly Infantry and Airships; Machine Guns are currently the only land-based unit with a chance of intercepting air units, so are perhaps even more valuable now. Aiming to collect at least 11 Airships over the next couple of turns, 4-each for Bursa & New Damascus on the frontlines, 2 for the Island to watch the coasts, and a final one for Sarmatian to keep an eye on sooooo.

Anyway, state of play: such a shame I'm not ready to attack this turn as mh has not only his Caravel and Galleon inside Mainz, but also a fresh Destroyer. Ah well, such is the price of preparation. Good news is that although he has now accumulated ~600g, he has not upgraded any of his ships. He has also spread his fleet even wider, and sent the Frigate pair East (probably to watch the Pirates). If they stay over there, it not only takes them out of the way for next turn, but also means they have a long way to run if they want to be upgraded. 2Ironclads now sit on Strassburg's Fish, so if I can take that city next turn they also become irrelevant.

Time to play the Shell game with Transports, I think...

#1 - currently located in Konya, is loaded with 4Inf and will stay in place. (mh has only one Galleon for troop transport, so a maximum of 3units could attack the city. He also only has the single Destroyer in range for bombardment so defenses would be 44% and is on a hill. I think the current garrison of Inf & 2Rifles can stave off any potential attack.)

#2 - just completed in Sarmatian. Loaded up with Inf, and moves to a spot 3E,1S of Konya. This spot is hidden from mh unless he has a Spy sitting on the hill 1E of Konya, and can reach Mainz next turn. Is left unpromoted for now.

#3 - sitting just outside Sarmatian, this is the tricky one as I want to have some flexibility with it. I'm going to send it North, so that if the attacks on Mainz and Strassburg go extremely well I'd be able to use it to assault Lubeck. Now with its regular move it cannot reach the borders of Malatya and so will also be in view from mh's borders, so I promote F1N1 and place it onto the Whales. I cover it with the Destroyer I upgraded last turn, since you can't be too careful.

There is also the Galleon under the Eastern Fleet; that moves South to pick up 3Workers for the Island, and then returns to the Fleet.


OK, now for the rest of the Fleet, starting with the Eastern:

Stored here I now have the Worker's Galleon and the Prophet's Caravel, so I want to ensure that it is adequately protected. The Destroyer can't reach (even if Flu-promoted) so I just have to protect against 2Frigates. The Ironclad on the top should take care of one but then it's down to the Galleon, so I move the two Privateers into the stack as well. The Frigate which had been sitting with the Pirates moves S to join the Ironclad ... in Bombarding range of Strassburg.

Speaking of that Southern Ironclad it needs re-fitting as a Destroyer, as does the Northern Frigate. This one remains 1S of Malatya rather than joining the slightly more visible Transport/Destroyer on the Whales. (still well in range of everywhere)

The tricky thing is the Western Ironclad Fleet; it has to move to be in range for bombardment, but any move will be noticed and may trigger suspicion. I don't think it can be helped, so I'm just going to line them up as a wall along the border. That way 2 are in range of Mainz, and the third can reach Strassburg. The Frigate stays in-place at the Eastern end of the "Wall", 1SW of Strassburg.

My Airship in Malatya does a recon flight over sooooo's Western border and spots no ships. On the Western coast, my Caravel confirms the garrisons of Lubeck & Aryan (1 Rifle each) and no ships in sight.


Frontline review of mh's forces again shows no new military builds. I do notice a couple of Buddhist Missionaries (there has been one in Mainz for a turn or two) and wonder if he's thinking of sailing them over to sooooo for monetary purposes. If so all the better, as it'll split his fleet even further ... or maybe he'll even leave the Galleon in-port for loading?

4 Airships are promoted C1 (Theocracy) and re-based to Konya for Fleet assignment. The last does a recon sweep from Najran and confirms that mh is still undergoing unit consolidation in his backlines ... I think he might be a little sad about that when we go to war!

I'm going to run another turn at 0% Science; the gold will give me flexibility for upgrades or just for deficit research. I'll also continue on Communism to keep TOG guessing.

Stop by next turn for fireworks....

[Jabah]

Are you going to amphibous attack the city ? (with CG2 Infantries defending, even with 0% cultural and little damage from airship, that wil be a bloodbath for your troops and I am not sure that 3 transports of infantries will break 3 such units -note I have no idea how many they are, you wrote one last time and rifles but also you wrote he was swapping outdated units to fresh ones from backline cities)

[Dreylin]

Are you going to amphibous attack the city ? (with CG2 Infantries defending, even with 0% cultural and little damage from airship, that wil be a bloodbath for your troops and I am not sure that 3 transports of infantries will break 3 such units -note I have no idea how many they are, you wrote one last time and rifles but also you wrote he was swapping outdated units to fresh ones from backline cities)

Re: backline replacements; he's been taking Rifles from Medina and Vienna and marching them to his interior to replace Warriors, Archers & Muskets. (deleting the obsoleted guards).

Current garrison of Mainz:

Infantry - CG2, D1
Rifle (x2) - CG2, D1

I'll run some WB tests and see what sort of results I can get. Main problem I can see with landing before attacking is that the Rifles will certainly become Infantry. (As I've said before, I don't think his patchy Railway network would allow for a counter-attack)

[Dreylin]

OK, simming out:

To simulate a 25% Fortification bonus, I popped 0% cultural borders and then bombed with a single Destroyer to 24%. Barring differences in how the bonuses are applied, that should be a reasonable approximation.

As above: Inf & 2Rifles.

Airship bombardment: first two target the Infantry and together infict 20% damage. Remaining 2 each do 14% to the Rifles (Airships are all C1):

Inf: 16/20h
Rifle (x2): 12/14h

Max of 12 Infantry for Amphibious assault - all have 2Promos to spend.

Most effective use of 2Promos: Combat1, Pinch gives 7% vs. Infantry; 43% vs. Rifle.

So it's unlikely that I'll get away with using just a single transport-full; but worst-case should be 4Inf to kill the Rifles, so that would leave another 4Inf to take on the (wounded) defending Infantry before needing to call the third ship ... which doesn't seem unreasonable.

I think that the key to this battle is really going to be the Airship attacks without which the odds look a lot worse: 0.7% vs. Infantry; 23% vs. Rifle.

It's also worth a mention that I repeated the Airship attacks after having performed a full bombardment of defenses, and they hit the Rifles for 15% each ... not much, but every bit helps, right?

[Dreylin]

t160 - Ooooo the suspense!

OK, I collect a mish-mash of new builds: Infantry, Airships, & health buildings ... Oh, and some ships too.

Oooo, Wall Street has finished in Ankara, yay!

Chatting to Ruff, he lets me know that mh has 863g! Woohoo! no upgrades for him means many celebrations for me! :2dance:

Wheeeeee!




Before

OK, 60% defenses = 2x Destroyer (32) + 2x Ironclad (24) + Frigate ( 8). Actually, first lets declare WAR!!!!!!

Ahem, right yes anyway, so Bombardment. Unfortunately that's 64% bombarded off, but I don't have a second Frigate or third Ironclad in range. We work with what we've got. Destroyers from Konya & Southern Fleet used; available Ironclads used; Strassburg Frigate used.

Next the Airships from Konya: as predicted, 20% to Infantry & 14% to Rifles.

First Transport moves up from "hidden position" & Infantry start unloading:

Inf(c1,Pinch) vs. Inf(CG2,D1,14/20h) @ 7% ... dies, but damages Infantry to 10/20 health and brings up the Rifles

Inf(c1,Pinch) vs. Rifle(CG2,D1,12/14h) @ 42.7% ... dies; Rifle at 4.5/14
Inf(c1,Pinch) vs. Rifle(CG2,D1,12/14h) @ 42.7% ... dies; Rifle at 2/14

Ah well, them's the Breaks.

Inf(c1,Pinch) vs. Inf(CG2,D1,10/20h) @ 60.2% ... wins!

Second Transport moves into position from Konya (this is unpromoted, so could go F1N1 and have enough movement to also lend troops to the attack on Strassburg))

The Infantry gets 99.4% odds with just a Combat1 promotion, so I hold the second in reserve ... C2 is needed for Amphib.

Inf(c1) vs. Rifle(CG2,D1,4.5/14h) @ 99.4% ... wins, but only 1xp.
Inf(unpromoted) vs. Rifle(CG2,D1,2/14h) @ >99.9% ...



185g; Granary, Forge, Drydock, Courthouse & 8Pop points. mh can't counter-attack this turn, and I can fill it with Infantry ... oooo, tempting. ARGH! Discipline; I only need one land front in this war, not more. OK, coming to senses. Mainz burns. Infantry promotes Guerilla2 for maximum (probably unneeded) defense next turn.


On to the second Priority: killing mh's Destroyer.

It is a C2 and is standing off the coast, so is a 50/50 shot for one of my C2's. I think this is where the Airship in Malatya comes into play and tries to dodge the 30% intercept rate. Success! 13% damage bring the 50/50 shot to 70/30 in my favour ... wins! Destroyer on 62% health, and Vercingetorix (GG) is born in Istanbul.


Step 3: now here we have a question; is it more important to take out Strassburg, or Lubeck? Lubeck probably has decent production, but does not have a Drydock so a Destroyer build is unlikely. Strassburg on the other hand has no production & barely any population, but does contain 2Rifles (to Lubeck's 1) and 2Rifles next door on the forest. So next turn, Strassburg could have 4Infantry defending. However, more important are the Yellow borders, within which mh could promote his remaining fleet to Destroyers. That cannot happen!

I have a Destroyer, Ironclad & Frigate available to bombard down to 4% defences (that's the same 4% I over-bombarded Mainz, ah well). No Airships left to take part, so it's straight in with the Infantry. The remaining 2 from Transport2 to start with on the off-chance they both win!

Inf(C1,Pinch) vs. Rifle(CG1,D1) @ 29% ... dies; Rifle at 11/14
Inf(C1,Pinch) vs. Rifle(CG1,D1) @ 29% ... wins!

OK, Transport3 on the way:

Inf(C1,Pinch) vs. Rifle(CG1,D1, 11/14h) @ 53.3% ... wins!

Strassburg captured & kept: 102g, Lighthouse & 2Pop.

Transport3 unloads a second Infantry for garrison detail, picks up the two healthiest Infantry from Transport2 & starts to head NW towards Lubeck & Aryan. Destroyer stays put to guard Transport2 from residual Ironclads.


Final Naval engagements of the turn in the East; mh's two Frigates.

Ironclad(F1,N1 from Sarmatian) vs. Frigate(C1) @ 75%/2.5% ... wins!
Ironclad(F1,N1 from East Fleet) vs. Frigate(C1) @ 75%/2.5% ... wins!

Excellento.


Final Naval moves for the turn; Caravel moves next to Knossos (only a Galley inside) and is gifted with Prophet.

Galleon moves up East coast of the main Island and dumps off its cargo of Workers. I conside moving the Destroyer up along with it, but I think sooooo might take that the wrong way. Instead it heads back to Malatya's Whales as a central holding point.


After

So there's still those Ironclads left, but I can afford to wait to deal with them. Even the Western pair don't have the movement to reach his borders and promote.


OK, what's left to do. Hmm, check on the front lines: yep, still there. Guess I should start working on a plan for moving in ... maybe. Shuffle some units about, Worker tasks 'n stuff. Oh yeah, new GG to deal with ... well y'know I've got this Axe stacked in Bursa, and I was thinking about maybe getting myself a CR3 Infantry for cracking into Vienna. Why not, eh? I'm only 106xp from the next GG.

Oh yeah, probably time to switch back on research now I've got 906g in the bank. 70% Science will give me Flight in 7t @ -38gpt. Seems like a decent rate to me.

[novice]

Fantastic!
How many coastal cities does mh have left? Lubeck and one more north of it?

[Dreylin]

Fantastic!
How many coastal cities does mh have left? Lubeck and one more north of it?

Yep, I should be able to grab Lubeck next turn, and then all that's left is the ex-Barb city of Aryan near the top of the map - quite a nice one with Fish and some fresh-water tiles. I have my Caravel sitting on the Fish right now.

Both only had a single Rifle guarding them last turn, and though they can be promoted to Infantry, I believe that resets the fortification bonus so at least that's a plus. Full Bombardment from Destroyers and a swipe with an Airship or two should give me an easy-enough time of things.

[Dreylin]

t161 - hopefully a quiet turn spent cleaning up the Seas....

Looks like has done much of the work for me; he threw his remaining ships at the Destroyer NW of Strassburg. The first three each took a chunk off before dying, so the fourth had ~60% odds and won. In the remaining coastal cities, mh has upgraded the Rifles to Infantry, and found a Musket to add into Lubeck. He has also upgraded an Rifle in each of his frontline cities, switched to Nationhood for more Drafting, and finally switched research to Artillery.

My C2 Ironclad rounds the small Island and kills his remaining Ironclad. Two Destroyers pull up outside Lubeck and grind down the walls (only 20% defenses). The two Airships on the main Island bombard the defending Infantry down to 16/20 health; they also spot a new city just inland sitting atop mh's Tundra Oil supply. Guess that's how he had instant connection, and will guarantee no Spy can pillage it.

Transport3 moves into position:

Inf(C1,Pinch) vs. Inf(CG1,D1,16/20h) @ 34% ... dies
Inf(C1,Pinch) vs. Inf(CG1,D1,12.8/20h) @ 61% ... wins
Inf(C2,Pinch,17.8/20h) vs. Musket(CG1,D1) @ 91% ... dies
Inf(C2,18/20h) vs. Musket(CG1,D1,2/9h) @ >99% ... wins

Lubeck burns.

OK, now the two Rifles still outside Strassburg:

Airships bomb 20% off the top:

Inf(C1,Pinch) vs. Rifle(CG1,D1,W1,11.2/14h) @ 85% ... wins
Inf(C1,Pinch) vs. Rifle(CG1,D1,W1,11.2/14h) @ 85% ... wins

OK, the Island is purged.

Transport2 picks up the Infantry from the Island, circles past Konya for the Infantry there, then heads to rendezvous with Transport1 offshore the ruins of Mainz. The troops are offloaded onto T1, which then heads North towards Aryan.

sooooo has returned my Caravel with the promised Great Merchant aboard. He is dropped into Sarmatian, and will then head for storage in Ankara with the GSci. In gratitude, my Privateers head NE to Ephesus (his Moai city) and set up a blockade.

In addition to the upgrades at the frontlines, mh has dispatched 2Cavalry towards the North. They have passed Aachen, and I'm not sure whether they'll be able to counter-attack the remains of Lubeck, or reach Aryan for reinforcements. Actually, Aryan is likely to Draft next turn, so could be quite difficult to conquer.

WW is at +2 unhappy in my size 13/14 cities and that will probably go up after the fighting this turn; good thing Mt. Rushmore is about to complete to offset some. Many cities have Jails already to help, but Flight and Paratroopers are going to be vital for eliminating the Statue of Zeus as a factor. Knocking research up to 90% brings Flight down to 5turns; not sustainable, but probably doesn't need to be as it's likely ~5.2t at 80%.

[athlete4life10]

sooooo has returned my Caravel with the promised Great Merchant aboard. He is dropped into Sarmatian, and will then head for storage in Ankara with the GSci. In gratitude, my Privateers head NE to Ephesus (his Moai city) and set up a blockade.

[Dreylin]

A quick pre-turn note from Ruff:

Sooooo is sending some Infantry and MGs to his Southern coastal city ...
it is due to finish a destroyer next turn
Northern city is also building destroyer (3)
additional infantry arriving @ Knossos in 2 turns

Well, I'm not certain that there's anything I can do about that; I doubt that I can get a force assembled to knock on his door soon enough, while still attempting to knock out mh's last city.