Remember that the plan is to post scoring in several different categories when the final game is over. We'll look at standard scoring, playoff competition scoring, standard + playoffs, best 5 games, and per-game average. Don't feel too bad if you missed a game or two here and there.
Championship game field:
![[Image: leader25.jpg]](http://www.garath.net/Sullla/Civ4/Survivor/leader25.jpg)
Justinian
Justinian was the surprising winner of Playoff Game One, as well as the runner up from the opening round Game Two. To give an idea of the magnitude of his upset win, Justinian wasn't picked to come out on top by even one person in our prediction contest. Zero out of 37 entries! Justinian is going to have to lean heavily on his Imperialistic trait and get out to an early lead in this one if he expects to take the ultimate prize. Justinian as an AI leader can essentially be summed up with the combination of religion + military. He loves to found his own faith, and he loves to prosecute it with religious zeal at the end of a drawn sword. Justinian has little in the way of economic traits, so he'll have to rely on his amazing cataphracts to push the more peaceful leaders around. If you favor Justinian to win, it's probably going to be through Domination. He's not a spaceship or diplomatic kind of guy.
![[Image: leader46.jpg]](http://www.garath.net/Sullla/Civ4/Survivor/leader46.jpg)
Suryavarman
Suryavarman was the runner up in Playoff Game One, and the victor in the first game in the competition. He had a tough corner start in that last game, and still managed to advance anyway, largely by staying out of Justinian's way. Suryavarman hasn't had a truly good starting position yet in either game, and yet he's nonetheless managed to make it to this game. The Khmer leader has a dangerous trait combination in the Creative/Expansive pairing, allowing him to claim land quickly and get the development snowball rolling faster than anyone else. He's just as aggressive as Justinian, and unlike Justinian will plot war at "Pleased" relations, but he doesn't care about religion to the same degree. Suryavarman is also one of the rare economic leaders who has extremely low peace weight as an "Evil" figure. He's a difficult and prickly figure to get along with in diplomacy. This unusual combination of awesome traits along with an aggressive personality makes Suryavarman an exceedingly dangerous figure.
![[Image: leader29.jpg]](http://www.garath.net/Sullla/Civ4/Survivor/leader29.jpg)
Mansa Musa
Mansa Musa is arguably the favorite going into this championship game. Mansa was the winner of Playoff Game Two, and also the winner of Game Two back in the opening round. He is the only leader to appear in two games and finish in first place in both of them. I wrote all the way back in 2006 that Mansa Musa had the "winning" AI personality (just as Tokugawa has the "losing" AI personality), and nothing appears to have changed since then. What makes Mansa Musa so strong? For starters, he has the amazing trait pairing of Financial and Spiritual. It's well known that Financial is the best economic trait in Civ4, and Spiritual makes a great compliment because it saves the AI from all of the turns that they would otherwise lose to Anarchy with their dumb civic swaps. Mansa the AI loves to trade, with anyone for anything at any time, and this makes him a good neighbor who can often stay out of pointless wars. Mansa is also specifically programmed to favor cottages and windmills for his tile improvements, which again synergize perfectly with his Financial trait. Mansa doesn't need much in the way of cities or population to be dangerous. If he ever gets them, the game is probably over. Mansa's one weakness is that he can be too peaceful, with the third-lowest aggression rating in the game and a saintly peace weight as a "Good" leader. Oddly though, he can also declare war at "Pleased" for some reason. If Mansa gets left alone, however, he becomes all but impossible to out-tech, and stop from winning some kind of economic victory.
![[Image: leader13.jpg]](http://www.garath.net/Sullla/Civ4/Survivor/leader13.jpg)
Elizabeth
Elizabeth makes it to this game as a dual runner up. She came in second place in Playoff Game Two, and earlier in Game Six of the opening round. The best way to describe Elizabeth is a weaker version of Mansa Musa. These two leaders share a great deal in common. They both have outstanding economic traits, with Elizabeth having Financial/Philosophical instead of pairing Financial with Spiritual. I would argue that Spiritual helps the AI more than Philosophical as a trait, since they always get a ton of Great People regardless. Both Elizabeth and Mansa are exceedingly peaceful, with very high peace weights, and Lizzy can also plot war at "Pleased" for some reason. Elizabeth also has the special AI programming designed to emphasize cottages and windmills with her workers, another reason why she also researches so well. Like Mansa, Elizabeth's greatest weakness is coming under attack before she has a chance to run away in technology. Elizabeth has a lower unit rating than Mansa (she's at 2/10 for training units to his 4/10), and this is one reason why Elizabeth tends to run a greater risk of being killed early. Nonetheless, Elizabeth is still one of the best economic leaders in the game, and she will pose a major threat to win through space or culture.
![[Image: leader52.jpg]](http://www.garath.net/Sullla/Civ4/Survivor/leader52.jpg)
Zara Yacob
Zara is the leader that we've seen the most in this competition. He made it to the championship through the hard route, via the Wildcard game. Zara finished a distant third place in Game Two, then won the Wildcard match, then won Playoff Game Three. Considering that Zara finished third in his opening round game to Mansa Musa and Justinian - who also made it to the championship! - it's rather incredible to think back on how much talent there was in that initial Game Two. Zara has a strong trait combination in his own right with the Creative and Organized pairing, if not quite so good as some of the other leaders here. Zara's path to victory looks much like Suryavarman's, expanding rapidly and claiming territory in the early game and then snowballing from there. Both of Zara's wins followed that path, as he stayed peaceful in the early game until he had an economic lead and then went militaristic from there. The field's going to be tougher than ever here in the championship, but Zara will have a fighting chance. He's yet another leader who can plot war at "Pleased" relations, and Zara will compete with Justinian over the religions on the tech tree. Will Zara's fourth appearance of the competition result in a gold medal?
![[Image: leader45.jpg]](http://www.garath.net/Sullla/Civ4/Survivor/leader45.jpg)
Suleiman
Suleiman honestly feels a bit out of place here. He's another leader who makes it to the final by virtue of two runner up finishes, in Playoff Game Three and Game Four of the initial round. Unlike Elizabeth though, who was a dominant figure in both of her two runner up appearances, Suleiman was getting thoroughly pasted by much stronger leaders at the end of both of his previous apperances. I honestly think that he's the weakest leader in this group by a wide margin, and mostly slipped through to this position due to some lucky breaks. Suleiman is a very average AI leader, with mediocre traits (Imperialistic/Philosophical) and run of the mill ratings in most categories. I doubt that anyone would have expected Suleiman to reach this point before the competition started. Random luck suggests that someone would stumble their way into this position who doesn't really belong, and that's my take on Suleiman. Prove me wrong, Ottoman sultan!
Special custom map for the championship, spoilered for size:
* Donut map with leaders randomly placed at equal distances around the edge
* Each 21 tile starting radius is mirrored; the resources are wet corn, fish, and clams
* This map has "Balaced" resources, all AIs have access to all strategic resources
* Luxuries have been roughly balanced by me, although not mirrored
* There are six gold resources halfway between each AI along the coast
* No stone or marble on the map
The rest of the map is not an exact mirror. I hope this will still make for a great setup. Have fun picking your winner from this map.
Winner
Runner Up
First to Die
Leaders Surviving
Victory Type and Victory Date
I'm happy to accept prediction entries through personal message (PM) since this is the last game. I'm thinking more for people at the top of the current scoreboard here, but it doesn't really matter. I can write them down in my spreadsheet via PM as easily as through this forum thread. If you don't want others to copy your prediction, feel free to send them along.
I plan to post the final results at noon my time (EST) on Monday. That's almost exactly four days from the timing of this post. Good luck to all of you.
Championship game field:
Justinian
Justinian was the surprising winner of Playoff Game One, as well as the runner up from the opening round Game Two. To give an idea of the magnitude of his upset win, Justinian wasn't picked to come out on top by even one person in our prediction contest. Zero out of 37 entries! Justinian is going to have to lean heavily on his Imperialistic trait and get out to an early lead in this one if he expects to take the ultimate prize. Justinian as an AI leader can essentially be summed up with the combination of religion + military. He loves to found his own faith, and he loves to prosecute it with religious zeal at the end of a drawn sword. Justinian has little in the way of economic traits, so he'll have to rely on his amazing cataphracts to push the more peaceful leaders around. If you favor Justinian to win, it's probably going to be through Domination. He's not a spaceship or diplomatic kind of guy.
Suryavarman
Suryavarman was the runner up in Playoff Game One, and the victor in the first game in the competition. He had a tough corner start in that last game, and still managed to advance anyway, largely by staying out of Justinian's way. Suryavarman hasn't had a truly good starting position yet in either game, and yet he's nonetheless managed to make it to this game. The Khmer leader has a dangerous trait combination in the Creative/Expansive pairing, allowing him to claim land quickly and get the development snowball rolling faster than anyone else. He's just as aggressive as Justinian, and unlike Justinian will plot war at "Pleased" relations, but he doesn't care about religion to the same degree. Suryavarman is also one of the rare economic leaders who has extremely low peace weight as an "Evil" figure. He's a difficult and prickly figure to get along with in diplomacy. This unusual combination of awesome traits along with an aggressive personality makes Suryavarman an exceedingly dangerous figure.
Mansa Musa
Mansa Musa is arguably the favorite going into this championship game. Mansa was the winner of Playoff Game Two, and also the winner of Game Two back in the opening round. He is the only leader to appear in two games and finish in first place in both of them. I wrote all the way back in 2006 that Mansa Musa had the "winning" AI personality (just as Tokugawa has the "losing" AI personality), and nothing appears to have changed since then. What makes Mansa Musa so strong? For starters, he has the amazing trait pairing of Financial and Spiritual. It's well known that Financial is the best economic trait in Civ4, and Spiritual makes a great compliment because it saves the AI from all of the turns that they would otherwise lose to Anarchy with their dumb civic swaps. Mansa the AI loves to trade, with anyone for anything at any time, and this makes him a good neighbor who can often stay out of pointless wars. Mansa is also specifically programmed to favor cottages and windmills for his tile improvements, which again synergize perfectly with his Financial trait. Mansa doesn't need much in the way of cities or population to be dangerous. If he ever gets them, the game is probably over. Mansa's one weakness is that he can be too peaceful, with the third-lowest aggression rating in the game and a saintly peace weight as a "Good" leader. Oddly though, he can also declare war at "Pleased" for some reason. If Mansa gets left alone, however, he becomes all but impossible to out-tech, and stop from winning some kind of economic victory.
Elizabeth
Elizabeth makes it to this game as a dual runner up. She came in second place in Playoff Game Two, and earlier in Game Six of the opening round. The best way to describe Elizabeth is a weaker version of Mansa Musa. These two leaders share a great deal in common. They both have outstanding economic traits, with Elizabeth having Financial/Philosophical instead of pairing Financial with Spiritual. I would argue that Spiritual helps the AI more than Philosophical as a trait, since they always get a ton of Great People regardless. Both Elizabeth and Mansa are exceedingly peaceful, with very high peace weights, and Lizzy can also plot war at "Pleased" for some reason. Elizabeth also has the special AI programming designed to emphasize cottages and windmills with her workers, another reason why she also researches so well. Like Mansa, Elizabeth's greatest weakness is coming under attack before she has a chance to run away in technology. Elizabeth has a lower unit rating than Mansa (she's at 2/10 for training units to his 4/10), and this is one reason why Elizabeth tends to run a greater risk of being killed early. Nonetheless, Elizabeth is still one of the best economic leaders in the game, and she will pose a major threat to win through space or culture.
Zara Yacob
Zara is the leader that we've seen the most in this competition. He made it to the championship through the hard route, via the Wildcard game. Zara finished a distant third place in Game Two, then won the Wildcard match, then won Playoff Game Three. Considering that Zara finished third in his opening round game to Mansa Musa and Justinian - who also made it to the championship! - it's rather incredible to think back on how much talent there was in that initial Game Two. Zara has a strong trait combination in his own right with the Creative and Organized pairing, if not quite so good as some of the other leaders here. Zara's path to victory looks much like Suryavarman's, expanding rapidly and claiming territory in the early game and then snowballing from there. Both of Zara's wins followed that path, as he stayed peaceful in the early game until he had an economic lead and then went militaristic from there. The field's going to be tougher than ever here in the championship, but Zara will have a fighting chance. He's yet another leader who can plot war at "Pleased" relations, and Zara will compete with Justinian over the religions on the tech tree. Will Zara's fourth appearance of the competition result in a gold medal?
Suleiman
Suleiman honestly feels a bit out of place here. He's another leader who makes it to the final by virtue of two runner up finishes, in Playoff Game Three and Game Four of the initial round. Unlike Elizabeth though, who was a dominant figure in both of her two runner up appearances, Suleiman was getting thoroughly pasted by much stronger leaders at the end of both of his previous apperances. I honestly think that he's the weakest leader in this group by a wide margin, and mostly slipped through to this position due to some lucky breaks. Suleiman is a very average AI leader, with mediocre traits (Imperialistic/Philosophical) and run of the mill ratings in most categories. I doubt that anyone would have expected Suleiman to reach this point before the competition started. Random luck suggests that someone would stumble their way into this position who doesn't really belong, and that's my take on Suleiman. Prove me wrong, Ottoman sultan!
Special custom map for the championship, spoilered for size:
![[Image: survivor13-0.jpg]](http://www.garath.net/Sullla/Civ4/Survivor/survivor13-0.jpg)
* Donut map with leaders randomly placed at equal distances around the edge
* Each 21 tile starting radius is mirrored; the resources are wet corn, fish, and clams
* This map has "Balaced" resources, all AIs have access to all strategic resources
* Luxuries have been roughly balanced by me, although not mirrored
* There are six gold resources halfway between each AI along the coast
* No stone or marble on the map
The rest of the map is not an exact mirror. I hope this will still make for a great setup. Have fun picking your winner from this map.
Winner
Runner Up
First to Die
Leaders Surviving
Victory Type and Victory Date
I'm happy to accept prediction entries through personal message (PM) since this is the last game. I'm thinking more for people at the top of the current scoreboard here, but it doesn't really matter. I can write them down in my spreadsheet via PM as easily as through this forum thread. If you don't want others to copy your prediction, feel free to send them along.
I plan to post the final results at noon my time (EST) on Monday. That's almost exactly four days from the timing of this post. Good luck to all of you.
![[Image: bracket0.png]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/19563179/bracket0.png)
If I had gone with Mooseman, I'd have a (very outside) chance to win this thing.
