WW33 - Walking Dead [GAME THREAD]

[Hashoosh]

It is what I saw, but Catwalk drew my attention. IIRC, he piqued my interest during the first night (goreripper) and then on the second day I went Catwalk -> Gore.

[Jabbz]

Night 2 write-up:

GoreRipper was chatting with another member of the group. At one point the conversation shifted to the days before the zombie herd surrounded them. Apparently in their rush, they had not had the time to clear out the shack outside, and it still had a bunch of weapons and some food in it. It was getting late, but together the two decided to go fetch the stuff. Tonight the herd was thinner than usual, they might not get another chance in a long time. They got to the gate and it looked promising. They opened it up, and GoreRipper ran for the shack, while the other guy threw rocks at shopping carts outside, trying to get the zombies to follow the sound and not overwhelm his buddy. GoreRipper got to the shack, but it was locked! He turned back, just in time to see the gate shut down. He had nowhere to go.

Rowain woke up from his slumber in the middle of the night. He could swear he heard something, but a quick sweep around the place proved that everything was as it should be. Perhaps he was just imagining things. Still, the paranoid man he was, he decided he should investigate. Rowain stepped out of the room, and was promptly knocked in the head by a man standing just outside the door. He fell unconscious. What happened after that was a mystery to the group, but they found him dead the next day.

GoreRipper was killed. He was a Bandit Godfather.
Rowain was killed. He was a Vanilla Survivor.

Day 3 begins.

I'm pretty surprised by Rowain. I figured if he wasn't mafia, then he was the SK. His picking up on non-existant arguments to frame and successfully lynch Az were pretty good indicators of scummy behavior. In a way I'm glad he died last night however, as I think he would have likely been lynched today, and that could have been even worse, assuming that scum killed another one of us. From my understanding, had they gotten the SK we would pretty much be hosed.

[Jabbz]

So, Qg is claiming to be the multi-shot Vig. I suppose that's a reasonably safe claim, as we know there was at least a 1sV. The odds are much more in favor of a 1sV + SK however. It is possible that he is being honest, we didn't see a second (third) kill on night two, so it could be that the 1sV couldn't repeat.

Despite that however, I find his arguments about who he shot and why to be rather suspect. They sound a lot more like the types of shots a SK would take, especially the night 1 shot. As I said in the post above regarding Zak (I think it was Zak) there wasn't enough information to make a real claim on Day1, which is WHY we ended up sacrificing the guy who didn't respond. Your night two shot makes a lot more sense, but is also EXACTLY what a Sk would do in that situation.

Since you know it is almost 100% unlikely that there is a MsV AND a SK, you can feel free to make that claim, as no one will likely claim it instead. We may not have nailed down a scum, but I think we found our SK. Unfortunately, as others have pointed out, killing the SK is bad for us, so we have to know you are evil, block you perhaps if what Cat says is true (he is I believe claiming to be a MsRB, which means we also have a 1sRB) then we should block him and hope for the best? Or should we trust his judgment, knowing that it is in his best interests to kill a mafia, or he loses anyway? I'm not sure on that point. Either way, We know who you are now Qg, and your time is limited.

[Jabbz]

No role has a guarentee of having a single shot companion, if I'm understanding the wiki page correctly.

Actually, you are right. I misread those because I was in a hurry. Well there goes my awesome theory :/

[Mattimeo]

Multi-shot, non-vig: doctor, seer, blocker.
Doctor: DDDD. Sunrise one shot, Azarius multi, (Catwalk)? multi. Doesn't fit with claiming a one-shot alive.
Seer: minimum full at CC. DDCCVTx to allow for 3 kills n1. x can be C (one-shot out there), V (vig is multi-shot, didn't shoot last night), B. Extremely unlikely seer else give two other town and game won. Even one other and it's pretty damn trivial.
DDCCVVV could also be, with Q as true claim. Same problems as above indicate not seer, though.
Blocker: Minimum full at B. DDBVTxx, DDBVVVx allow 3 kills n1. x can be C,V,B. No guarantee of one-shot being out there.
Mason: clearly not due to claim.

Conclusion: Catwalk is full of shit. Unless he's a doctor and forgot Sunrise died. Even then, *known* is DDDD+[VVV|TVx]. So, full of shit.

Taking Q's claim at value:
We have either DDVVTxx, DDVVVxx or DDVVVTT. xx can be DD, MM or xx. x can be C, V, B.
Not MM or game won already.

Likely: DDDDVVT or DDDDVVV. Fit both only possible Catwalk claim (assuming he missed Sunrise being dead) and Q's claim. Leaning VVT as there has been no 1-shot claim. Especially if we had a doctor and scum roleblock alive to prevent the other kill.

Catwalk: You are either an unobservent doctor, or full of shit. Please clarify which.

[Catwalk]

I'm claiming to be either a mason, a cop, a doctor or a role blocker. I have a 1-shot colleague somewhere who has the same role as me. I'd much prefer not to reveal fully unless necessary, for the reasons stated above.

No role has a guarentee of having a single shot companion, if I'm understanding the wiki page correctly.

I do not have access to the wiki page, but I believe you're misreading this. Here's how I'm reading it:
1) 7 town roles are rolled
2) Each has a 50% chance of being a town role, rest are various power roles
3) Power roles follow a set of rules for determining if it's 1-shot or multi-shot
4) Once power roles have been rolled, the multi-T table determines what scum are in the game on basis of how many of the 7 town roles are vanilla

Rereading this, I realize that power roles do not follow the same distribution pattern. Maybe what you're referring to is the fact that only the cop and the vigilante get a 1-shot role before they get a multi-shot role. Which means that I've already outed myself as a multi-shot cop, and I know that there's a 1-shot cop somewhere. This is what I wanted to avoid, as we now can't fake having more doctors or possibly roleblockers. I wanted to let scum think we had either of those, but failed to notice that the 1-shot and multi-shot orders were switched around. I checked Brick on N1 and Rowain on N2.

Given that I'm a multi-shot cop, I know this about the setup:
* 2x doctor
* 2x cop
* 1x 1-shot vig (as a minimum) and either multi-shot vig or SK (to explain 3 kills on N1)
* TT, T or 0T setup (because of the godfather)
* 4 vanilla have died so far
* we have 2x cop + 1x 1-shot vig alive along with 2 bandits and either a multi-vig or a SK

Possibilities:
1) TT = DDCCV + 5 vanilla + 3 bandits => max 2 kills per night, doesn't qualify if I'm cop
2) T = DDCCV? + 4 vanilla + 3 bandits + SK => qualifies, but only if Hashoosh isn't vanilla
3) 0T = DDCCVV? + 4 vanilla + 3 bandits => qualifies, but only if Hashoosh isn't vanilla

Please check my math, I don't think I've made any mistakes but it sounds like I may have misread the setup description (still don't access to the wiki page).

Crossposting with Mattimeo, reading his post now.

[Catwalk]

Mattimeo, I think my post adresses your claims already but I don't understand why you're dismissing the cop option.

[Catwalk]

Also, do you agree that it's not possible for both Hashoosh and myself to be honest? I don't see any possible setup with 5 vanilla townies, 2 cops, a godfather and 3 kills on N1.

[Mattimeo]

I was dismissing the seer claim because if you're seer, you have two results now. If even one of them is still alive, that's two town, of 6 people alive. You then have a 3/4 chance of hitting scum, or 1/2 chance of hitting wolf.
So unless you're claiming that everyone you've scanned is dead, the fact that you did not instantly claim seer w/ confirmed town to start this (clearly LyLo) day casts serious doubt on your belated claim.

And no, that's not how roles work at all.
First up, stuff is rolled. This generates anywhere between 3 roles (TTTTTTx) and 10 roles (eg. DDCVBBT). Those roles are then distributed as normal amongst the 13 players.
There's definitely no 1-1 mapping between rolls and roles. CC means we have a single full cop.

The only possibilities if no-one is lying: DDCCVVV or DDCCVVT. The two dead doctors, full cop, full vig, and either one-shot vig or SK.

Catwalk reveal your scans now if you want us to believe you at all.

[Catwalk]

My scans are above, Brick and Rowain. I think the fact that I can correctly point out that there is a 1-shot cop should be sufficient to prove my claim. Unless I completely misunderstand the setup. I don't understand what you're saying, though. Isn't it possible (according to post 1 of this thread) for there to be no power roles? Or were you referring to scum roles with "anywhere between 3 roles"?