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(June 2nd, 2014, 16:11)Catwalk Wrote: "More to the point, is there any reason a SK wouldn't fire on night 2? We only had two deaths on night two, and Qg claimed one. "
Very simple answer. Out of 3 kills, 2 of them hit the same target OR 1 of them got blocked by the bandit roleblocker.
That was in comment to the possibilty of Sk + 2msV, so we'd need two null shots in the dark that night.
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A little dramatic there Qg, but I agree with the general concept.
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(June 2nd, 2014, 16:11)Qgqqqqq Wrote: Okay so the following are FACTS. If anyone disagrees, please post why or else accept them as such.
- I am a confirmed Multi-shot town vigilante. The reasoning for this has been explained a few times thus far but it seems to be the only possibility.
- We are at LyLo. If we lynch anything but a scum today, then both the town and the SK will lose the game. (Reasoning: because of this rule [In case of an even split (ie. 3 town, 3 mafia at the start of a day), mafia wins.] the mafia only need an even split. If we lynch a town then the setup is 2/1/2 or 3/2 and the scum will roleblock/kill me and whoever they think is the SK [probably roleblock SK because he could be kill immune] and then win off having an even split on the next day. If we kill a scum, then the SK will remain in the game, and have a chance of victory.
- As a result of the above two, every non-scum must vote with me (as a confirmed villager), no matter what. If even a single one votes differently then the scum will be able to use that to kill a non-scum. (This is the case even if it looks like a candidate is winning by a lot - remember scum can coordinate votes in a way we cannot.
Is this understood?
unvote
You aren't confirmed, and I'm not completely sold on your being an innocent. Occam would like to believe that you are though.
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Off for bed, have fun talking each other's heads off!
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Let me just run through the math, one more time.
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(June 2nd, 2014, 16:11)Catwalk Wrote: "More to the point, is there any reason a SK wouldn't fire on night 2? We only had two deaths on night two, and Qg claimed one. "
Very simple answer. Out of 3 kills, 2 of them hit the same target OR 1 of them got blocked by the bandit roleblocker.
Ok, yeah, I didn't think about that.
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(June 2nd, 2014, 16:12)zakalwe Wrote: (June 2nd, 2014, 15:52)Catwalk Wrote: zakalwe, I think you're grasping for straws now. Jabbz may well be a serial killer, but if we lynch the serial killer we die tonight and the bandits win. I'm going to take my chances that there isn't a serial killer, and in the event there is one we can do little other than pray anyway. Jabbz is an exceedingly likely SK candidate if there is a SK, but that has little relevance. Do you agree with my analyses above?
I'm not voting for Jabbz, am I? I'm just pointing out that I think he's lying.
I do agree with your analyses, except that I won't assume that there isn't a SK. That just artificially simplifies the equation, which may yield the wrong answer. But I think you got everything right this time, concerning the possible constellations.
So if I assume that you're innocent, then this does indeed mean that both Mattimeo and Hashoosh are scum. But Jabbz looks like a liar, too, which means there is a risk that we hit the SK if we pick the wrong target out of the three. And like I said, this is still assuming that you are town, so it's not really so simple.
Hashoosh is now trying to make it simple, and I think it's because he just wants me dead.
(June 2nd, 2014, 16:15)Hashoosh Wrote: (June 2nd, 2014, 16:11)Qgqqqqq Wrote: Okay so the following are FACTS. If anyone disagrees, please post why or else accept them as such.
- I am a confirmed Multi-shot town vigilante. The reasoning for this has been explained a few times thus far but it seems to be the only possibility.
- We are at LyLo. If we lynch anything but a scum today, then both the town and the SK will lose the game. (Reasoning: because of this rule [In case of an even split (ie. 3 town, 3 mafia at the start of a day), mafia wins.] the mafia only need an even split. If we lynch a town then the setup is 2/1/2 or 3/2 and the scum will roleblock/kill me and whoever they think is the SK [probably roleblock SK because he could be kill immune] and then win off having an even split on the next day. If we kill a scum, then the SK will remain in the game, and have a chance of victory.
- As a result of the above two, every non-scum must vote with me (as a confirmed villager), no matter what. If even a single one votes differently then the scum will be able to use that to kill a non-scum. (This is the case even if it looks like a candidate is winning by a lot - remember scum can coordinate votes in a way we cannot.
Is this understood?
unvote
You aren't confirmed, and I'm not completely sold on your being an innocent. Occam would like to believe that you are though.
I'm with Hash on that for the moment. I don't think you're in the clear. I'm no longer 100% positive you're a SK, but I still think the odds make it more likely. To be honest though, I think that, for tonight, I can trust you to act as a townie, whether you are town or SK, and I don't think that you are scum. I MIGHT have your back on a vote, but you will need to make pretty solid arguments.
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On a side note, Hash, you killed your vote, I'm assuming on accident.
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Quote:We didn't know there was at least a 1sV, there could have been a full V at that point. I slipped there. What we couldn't have was a 1sv + v AND an sk. The only possible options at that point, as I could understand them, were 1sV + sk, or 1sv + V. The first day shot was bad, and yes, so was mine. I find it unlikely however that both of us would make stupid mistakes on the first night, especially as, from what I can see, he isn't new to this game. The odds of a 1sv + SK are lower than the odds of a 1sv +sk. Everything he claims would apply to an SK. So really easy question for you. Does an SK HAVE to kill every night? More to the point, is there any reason a SK wouldn't fire on night 2? We only had two deaths on night two, and Qg claimed one. If the answer to the first question is yes, then I can't be the SK. If the answer to the second is no, then I can't be the SK. I'll give you a hint, I'm not the Sk.
The following are possible reasons for only two kills last night:
- You are a 1 shot Vig and we have no SK
- Several kills doubled up, i.e. two people targeted Rowain
- A bullet-proof SK was the scums target
- Either the SK or the scum chose not to kill.
Erebus in the Balance - a FFH Modmod based around balancing and polishing FFH for streamlined competitive play.
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(June 2nd, 2014, 16:20)Jabbz Wrote: On a side note, Hash, you killed your vote, I'm assuming on accident.
Did I? I only quoted the unvote, and I hope Jowy doesn't mark that as a lost vote. Either way:
Zakalwe
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