WW33 - Walking Dead [GAME THREAD]

[Hashoosh]

I'm not actually certain of Catwalks innocence, I've included the caveat that some of these set-ups are assuming Catwalk's telling the truth.

As it stands, you seem to be fairly certain of my scuminess, because I'm pushing hard on Zak and Matt. Consider that we've all claimed vanilla roles. This isn't possible, so at least one of them (if not them both) has a scum role. I view you, Catwalk and Jabbz as potential for SK, but I've decided to leave that until we've lynched a scum. Which I'm almost certain is Zak or Matt.

Now, let me try to go through this again.

Claims:
Hashoosh: Vanilla
Mattimeo: Vanilla
Zakalwe: Vanilla
Catwalk: multi Cop
Jabbz: one shot Vigilante
Qgqqqqq: multi shot Vigilante

So DDVVVCC, if the three power claimers are to be believed. Leaving us with 2 scum, and 1 vanilla villager. In that case, it's M/Z

DDVVVV X is also possible, but begs the question of why would Jabbz lie. The x could either be a B, C, or V. In that case, we have 3 scum and 5 power roles, thus 5 villagers. Meaning again, M/Z. But why would the power roles lie here? Self-protection? I'd rather we be honest and lynch a scum than not revealing our real roles and losing today to a mislynch.

Then there are the serial killer scenarios:

TDDV X X X

3 scum +1 sk +1 1sD +1 msD +1 1sV +1 vanilla = 8. We know there are four vanilla town, so change that to 11. I know I'm vanilla town, so change that to 12. We're left to account for 1 more role with 3 rolls.

TDDV VCC

Upgrades the vigilante and adds a cop. This makes Jabbz the likely serial killer. Catwalk is the cop, Qgqqqq is the msV and M/Z are the remaining scum.

TDDDDVV

Adds a doctor and upgrades the vigilante. This means Catwalk is supreme fail at reading comprehension, or lying to throw the baddies off the scent. Jabbz is again the likely serial killer. Qgqqqq is again, likely our VV. I just can't see why they'd claim one another's roles?

So, in any set-up where we have a SK, Qgqqqqq is exonerated. Catwalk is also mostly exonerated, except that he's lied about a cop in scenario 2.

[Hashoosh]

Q, I don't want to be anal, but there are 3 Hs in my name: Hashoosh

[Hashoosh]

If I haven't been clear enough, the 2 scum are almost certainly in the three vanilla villager claims. Mattimeo, Zak and I.

I know it's one or both of them. I don't see the SK scenario as happening, but it could. That said, yes, I'm more and more realizing that Qgqqqqq is the closest we've got to a clean villager.

Now, going over what's happened so far:

Mattimeo drops a vote on Goreripper and doesn't do much of anything to pursue it. If you're going to come after me for my day 2 vote, you'll have to examine his as well. I admit, I was a little hasty in my Catwalk attack, but we both decided to throw votes on someone who may very well have been lynched. Who was scum. Had Jabbz and Azarius been online at the lynch, or had Rowain been convinced by me or Catwalk, we could have strung up Gore.

Now, Zak is attacking me for voting against Goreripper, and seems to be digging up day 1 non-sense. Honestly, there's nothing to first day but conjecture. I was nervous, so I voted for the only other silent guy in the game. Zak, meanwhile, fanned the flames that led to Jabbz, as he claims, shooting Rowain and Azarius being hanged on Day 2.

So Zakalwe, I don't see a situation where both of us can be innocent. Which means you're scum.

[Mattimeo]

Mattimeo: I'm a little unnerved by his knowledge about exactly how the setup works. I think it goes without saying that the bandits have been discussing the setup at great length, and I suspect that he failed to conceal this in-depth knowledge in his eagerness to seem town. It's certainly possible he's just smarter than me, though I had a town lean on him earlier, and it counts in his favour that he helped push Goreripper. However, we were still two votes short of hanging Goreripper due to tie breaker mechanics.

Well, apologies for having played multiple C9++ games before, then.
I was sure we'd played it on here before, too, but I can't find such a game in the archives :/
Basically: the setup really isn't that hard. And it has a large amount of meta-analysis of possible roles that can get started pretty early, which makes the game in general more enjoyable for me. And it's suspicious that I know how such a variant works?

Or do you only dislike my level of knowledge here because it makes me unsure about your seer claim, now that I've thought about it?

By the way, the likelihood of rolling 1 T out of 7? 1.5625%. Yeah.

Nice gamber's fallacy you're hinging everything on there.
We know a max TT at this point.
0T, T, TT add to 100%. At 25+50+25. 50% chance of SK. Not 1.5%.

Leaving us with:


CCDDVVV

Zak and Mattimeo are thus both lying, and they are the remaining bandits.
Catwalk is a multi shot cop
Qgqqqq is a multi Vigilante
Jabbz is a single vigilante (and a misguided one)
Hashoosh is a vanilla survivor.

So, Jabbz, please change your vote to Zak.

DDVVVTT is almost indistinguishable from the form you're proposing, with one major difference - there's an extra town, rather than the seer.
And with your desperation to prove the only possible situation is 5 vanilla, I'm quite inclined to think that Catwalk is lying, and zak's the 6th.

Well, since p(T) = 0.5, we know that p`(T) is also 0.5.

That means that yes, rolling 6 `(t) has the probability of 0.5^7. What are the chances of flipping a coin 7 times, with only one head?

Given the first 5 flips DID NOT come up T, what is the chances of one of the last two coming up heads?
Gambler's fallacy. Appears quite deliberate now. Why?

Is this understood?

unvote

unvote
Still tending heavily Hashoosh, though.

I don't see a scenario in which Jabbz is scum.

Catwalk is telling the truth, and Jabbz decided that being known as a 1-shot vig was better than being known as the SK?
DDCCVVT
But then, I really can't see *both* scum claiming to be vanilla town. Seems to reduce it to a 1/3 chance of hitting that vanilla if we pick a vanilla claim at random, and a 2/3 chance of hitting scum.
I cannot see zak doing that. He's either telling the truth (in which case, both Catwalk and Hashoosh are lying) or he's the SK (in which case I think it's him, Hashoosh and Jabbz lying).

[Hashoosh]

As you said, you've quite a bit more experience with using C9++ (this is the first game of WW that reveals so much meta).

As for the gambler's fallacy, sure, I was looking at it from the initial roll. If we assume p(t|DDV), then yeah, obviously the probabilities shift. I write how I'm thinking, you've successfully nitpicked out some math. Why does that even matter, more to the point?

If we are in a situation with DDVVVTT, then yes, 2 of us are town and Catwalk is the remaining scum. You, me and catwalk all voted for Gore. He was one vote from hanging on Day 2, but you didn't know that since you voted first. Both catwalk and I decided to change our votes from each other, to Goreripper.

In DDVVVTT it has to be one of me, you, and Zak. With Catwalk as the last. Not buying it. I see DDVVVCC as much more plausible, with Catwalk and I as village and you two as scum.

[Hashoosh]

And unvote

Could be Matt, no room for error here. Excuse me for going so hard against Zak.

[Mattimeo]

As for the gambler's fallacy, sure, I was looking at it from the initial roll. If we assume p(t|DDV), then yeah, obviously the probabilities shift. I write how I'm thinking, you've successfully nitpicked out some math. Why does that even matter, more to the point?

I just don't get why you're so insistent in ignoring the possibility of an SK.

If we are in a situation with DDVVVTT, then yes, 2 of us are town and Catwalk is the remaining scum. You, me and catwalk all voted for Gore. He was one vote from hanging on Day 2, but you didn't know that since you voted first. Both catwalk and I decided to change our votes from each other, to Goreripper.

With the way tiebreaks are working here, he was two votes away. And I was around near deadline, just as much as you were.
Yet you use that to give Catwalk a free pass, and dump suspicion onto me?

In DDVVVTT it has to be one of me, you, and Zak. With Catwalk as the last. Not buying it. I see DDVVVCC as much more plausible, with Catwalk and I as village and you two as scum.

Yeah, because me and zak, with the ability to co-ordinate between ourselves, would totally claim mutually exclusive things as a scum team. Right.

[Mattimeo]

Could be Matt, no room for error here. Excuse me for going so hard against Zak.

and yet, every single post you make decries that it must be both me and zak?

[Hashoosh]

No, if you believe that you've misread it. I know there's a possibility for 6 villagers. It just seems much less likely than a situation where we have 5 villagers, 3 scum and 5 power roles. or 5/4/4

I'm not sold on SK, I find it much less likely than Qgqqqq and Jabbz telling the truth. And plus, SK is besides the point as of now, we need to lynch a bandit, whether there's a SK masquerading as a vig is unimportant for today.

And yes, you and Zak, as a scum team, could try to muddy the waters and get me lynched, resulting in a scum victory at the end of the day.

[Mattimeo]

And yes, you and Zak, as a scum team, could try to muddy the waters and get me lynched, resulting in a scum victory at the end of the day.

Um.
4-2 or 3-1-2 currently. With town also having a shot.
Assuming you're town, and we lynch you -

If no SK:
3-2 at end of day. Not over.
Scum can block Qgqqqq, kill. 2-2 in the morning and scum win.

If SK:
2-1-2 at end of day. Not over.
Scum can block Qgqqqq, kill. SK can shoot. If SK hits scum, 1-1-1 or 2-0-1 in the morning. Possibly even 2-1-1 if scum shoot SK and SK has 1-shot immunity.
Entirely NOT over.

You see why knowing if there's an SK or not is actually rather damn important? And why I consider your continued insistence that there is absolutely not one rather suspicious?
Also, the presence of a Serial Killer directly implies that Catwalk is actually telling the truth with his claim. We know DDVVTTT cannot be a thing - TTT has no Godfather. Only way to get an SK is with a single T, and I believe the only way that works with actually *known* data, is DDCCVVT.

DDVVVTT. DDCCVVV. DDCCVVT.
Q confirmed regardless.
Jabbz looking to either be telling the truth, or SK. Neither of which we want to be lynching today.
Catwalk either telling the truth or scum.
If Catwalk is telling the truth, you can zak are scum. (unbiased view: two of the three vanilla claims are scum)
If Catwalk is lying, only one of you and zak are lying as well. And only one of you is incessantly attempting to buddy Catwalk.

Fuck it. Common denominator.
Hashoosh
Qgqqqqq, I'll still cede to you if you find compelling evidence that it's actually Catwalk-zakalwe, and vote one of them instead.