[SPOILERS] A new Thread [SPOILERS]

[Mardoc]

Ah...two turns in one day . Such a nice contrast from before.

So what's up?

Well, looking at demos again this turn gives me a smidgen of hope. Partly for the shrunken distance to #1 GNP, but also for the fact that I'm now 5th. Why's that good? Because it means this is still a multi-polar world, not just a runaway and some trailers. I can't afford to invest in conquest yet anyway, so I'd just as soon have the potential targets be prickly for Zanth.



More cities:


Ankara is doing fine. It's urgent that I get a worker or two here to finish the mine, as it's running out of good tiles to work. Pretty soon it'll have to just stop and stagnate - well, maybe start stacking up some GPP for future use. Edit: actually...when it's ready to stagnate, before I hire any specialists I ought to let the city to the south borrow its fish for a while. It's never going to be an awesome city, it's just squeezed too much, but it's a solid contributor anyway.



Bursa, on the other hand, is already an awesome city and it's going to be getting better. Not quite 50 hpt after multipliers, but darn near, and that'll improve as soon as grows once more onto the workshop. The farm's in process of being workshopped as well, and the coast tiles let it pay for itself.

Bursa's going to get me out of 10th place soldiers, probably all on its own. Nothing exciting, just a cat every turn for a while, then maybe upgrade to Janissaries or Knights or some such once I have enough cats. But I expect one unit/turn from here for a good long while .

[Mardoc]

Foreign news, first. Catwalk and Jowy made peace. Looks like Jowy got a couple cities out of the deal, even!


Here's why:


Not sure how Catwalk set himself up to lose a third of his Power in one turn, but...ouch. That was definitely not the right fight to pick there, Catwalk.



Alas, poor Yuri, I knew him.

Gawdzak declared on Yuri while I was in game. He hasn't gotten any cities yet, but he seems competent, so I'd expect that he will. Even worse for Yuri, Jowy's just finished a profitable war and has a secure front; I would expect him to pile in and pick up where he left off before Catwalk declared. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if Yuri leaves the game before Sian/TBS does!
What am I going to do about it? Well, directly, nothing. Gawdzak's got a significantly bigger army than I do. Although I'm working on changing that, I'm not ready yet. It wouldn't be the end of the world for China to grow some, either, not when he borders Zanth directly.



But indirectly? I can't help but notice these two islands are uninhabited. With French culture where it was, no one could really change that, but since I expect the French to be disappearing, maybe I'll play vulture and see if I can sneak in a couple settling parties with decent-sized garrisons and some workboats/missionaries.

Finally, some city thoughts:



I decided this turn to stagnate Gaziantep where it is. I could keep the Rice and eventually get 2.5 specialists out of the place, and become dependent on the rice forever. Or I could give the rice to Edirne, which can use all the food it can get, and stop Gaziantep here. That helps Edirne grow now, pre-Moai, to use all its coast, and it'll let Edirne have a truly terrifyingly awesome 6 specialists at breakeven - definitely the right place for National Epic. It just seemed right, and timely.

Although Gaziantep won't be growing any more, it's far from finished! I still urgently want a Library and Courthouse at least, to use the solid amount of commerce it generates. I also want to use it for missionary production. After that, I'll have to choose between continuing adding multipliers for greater profit, or helping with military production. It's already got a Barracks and it's coastal as well, so I could usefully spend hammers on both army and navy.

Another tile-sharing dilemma presents itself at Samsun/Konya. Both are nearly to stagnation, so I'll need to decide which one gets the shared coast tiles, or if they're split. Konya's got more multipliers now, but Samsun's got more hammers now that Konya gave its tiles to Bursa, so it'll likely get a higher multiplier eventually.

I think, actually, I'm going to base it on a different consideration. If I give the coast tiles to Konya, then Samsun stagnates one size sooner. Which in turn means Istanbul gets its food back earlier. If I'm going to worry about multipliers - the capital outshines *both* of them, after all.





Which means that Konya will grow once more before pausing on a pair of specialists, and Samsun has two more growths in store.

I'm really liking the way this is turning out, several cities with most of their decisions done. Cities that just need to sit where they are and contribute to the rest of the empire; I can rely on them for a good bit of commerce and hammers, and don't really need to invest anything more into them. These last three, on top, will all likely be worth a Great Person or two, especially if I can get Mercantilism/Pacifism running for a while.

[Mardoc]

I believe I mentioned something about Yuri losing cities soon?


Gonna have to hurry if I want to vulture, I think. That makes my decision between Slavery and Caste next easier - Slavery is the only way I can realistically get the settlers out in time. I think I want to build four for the time being - 2 to finish the gap in Ottoman lands, 2 to head west and try for jackal-type behavior.

Of course, that will have the trade-off of reopening the gap to the leader . I seem to have almost caught up in GNP. Ok, realistically this is probably Zanth's full gold rate, not his breakeven like we're running. But at least for one turn, we're not getting further behind.


I have to believe it'll be worth it in the long run, though. This game won't be over fast, and that means new cities still have time to pay off.

In other news, I'm starting to toy with the idea of flipping religious civics one of these days, now that Confucianism is getting close to full spread. Well, 2/3 spread, anyway. Still have 8 cities to convert, plus the new ones I'm planning to found - so I'll keep Org Rel at least for the next five turns. But there's a light at the end of that tunnel - and it's a Pacifistic light. Boosting Mercantilist specialists and those random specs I'm starting to hire, can only be a good thing. Particularly when our army is still mostly in potential, rather than in being.



Research: finishing PP this turn, then onto Banking, then I think I will actually take Education next after all. Although I won't have any banks done by the time Education completes, I may have a couple cities that want to build Universities anyway just to help unlock Oxford. Golden Age, Printing Press, and Oxford - that's a combo that might turn the GNP match from illusory to real.

Depending on how the cities are actually looking, I might slip in Horseback Riding, Gunpowder, and maybe even some of Nationalism, though. If I really can't fit a university in anywhere, there's no point in being Edumacated. Wait and see.

[Mardoc]

So, printing press and about 10 population growths was really good for my GNP. But Zanth turned science on, making it clear I'm still definitely behind. Ah well; I knew that, really. Just means I've got to continue down the economic road for now.


Yuri lost another city. He also did something like 6 whips! This is just about perfect, I think; Gawdzak will gain, but he'll have to pay for it. He's likely to be too busy digesting and getting used to his new neighbor to make any trouble for me as I jump ahead in tech.


Also, note something else in the picture. Someone's now #2 in score...only one more place to climb. Course, this is the hard rung, but still . I know a lot of this was just doing the obvious things that flugauto set me up for; owning lots of land and lots of happiness tends to pay off sooner or later.

I may be losing that temporarily next turn, though. I'll be flipping into Slavery - and I've got four settlers ready to whip immediately upon revolt, will cost 12 or 13 pop. All in cities with at least 6 food surplus and all coast tiles to be whipping off of, but it's still going to sting. It'll be good for me in the long run, though!

I don't intend to stay in Slavery long, probably the minimum 5 turns, after which I'm going to go to Caste. I've got only about five workshops currently in use, but I've also got several cities poised to grow onto the things. And a lot of my cities are getting too big for the whip, anyway.

Finally, the piece that'll really kick me into overdrive:


Only 11 turns until my first golden age . I'll be revolting into Mercantilism next turn, which ought to really cut down the time. Although, I have to admit, I'm seriously considering firing one of these specialists instead, to give all my cities more time to grow - including Mr. Moai here. Probably it doesn't make sense to wait, sooner GA means sooner infrastructure most places, but I'm considering it.

[Mardoc]

Hmm. So my breakeven GNP is even with Zanth's full gold rate, and ~200 less than his full science rate. That's unfortunate...but let's have a little perspective.

At breakeven of 60%, which is where I expect to land shortly, a Bank in Istanbul's worth 33 gpt. A University is worth about 25 - lower multiplier but higher base. Which makes Oxford worth 100. Those three items, alone, ought to catch me up, even before Istanbul grows onto the last of its tiles and before its villages finish becoming towns. This doesn't take any credit for the rest of the empire . I do expect that continued courthouses, growth, and mulitplier buildings will all let the rest of the empire contribute rather a lot as well.

Of course, that's an argument for wanting Education as soon as I have the hammers for it. Not an argument for getting it early. It's such a hard question, though: what counts as early? I don't actually believe that the limiting factor on getting Oxford in place is Istanbul's hammers. It's much more likely to be getting the sixth and seventh universities built. If I research Education earlier than Istanbul can start work, that just makes it more likely it can go directly from bank to university to Oxford, right? I'm sure there are at least a couple cities that will build Universities primarily to unlock Oxford rather than because I believe +25% beakers there is worth 200 hammers.

Izmir, for instance. It's mostly farms and workshops, with a few coastal tiles. I want to build culture buildings here, for defense and to reclaim the horse tile. A library/university pair at least has collateral benefits that a temple wouldn't. Izmir doesn't make a lot of commerce, but it might as well multiply what it does have, rather than stack up six extra happiness that I'll never use in lieu of five. I'm pretty sure I have a couple more cities like that, and I'll need them to get Oxford in a reasonable timeframe. Cities that really want Universities for their own sake generally don't have enough hammers to get them put up fast.

That's not to say that my cottage cities won't also build Universities, mind. Just that I don't expect those to finish anytime soon. And that I'd rather not delay Oxford any more than I have to.

-----

Of course, this does rather assume that Zanth is a stationary target rather than a moving one. Not sure if there's anything I can do about that, though, except to just keep pushing myself. I hope that he overestimates the power of cannons and tech lead and gets himself in over his head with his likely upcoming war. He probably should pick on Nakor, but I wouldn't be too shocked to see him go after slowcheetah or Gawdzak instead, both of whom can probably handle anything but massed cannons - even cannons in insufficient numbers should be mere prey to the swarms of HA I've seen in Dutch lands, and Cho-Ko-Nus could probably handle them too. Doesn't really look like he has any other options, except possibly the Ottomans.

To protect myself...well, keeping an eye on Zanth/Furungy and boosting my tech rate are about the only things I'm doing at the moment. The HE hasn't even boosted me to ninth place in Power yet, and I haven't put any other cities on unit production at all. If it were an emergency, I'd have to aim for Cavalry, which is about 6K beakers/10 turns away. But mostly I'm relying on potential military and friendly/distracted neighbors, for now. It's the only way I can see that has a prayer of catching up to Zanth.

Also - even if it turns out I can't catch Zanth any time soon, it may not be the end of my ambitions. If I can stay close enough to him that he can't invade, and pull ahead of Rome - then I can still profit. China's looking likely to stagnate tech-wise, too, unless France turns out to be a more profitable conquest than I'm expecting. And on the other side of Rome, Sian and then 2metraninja are both backward. As long as I can keep safe from the east, I could go on quite a conquering spree to the west.

But, for now, just plain and boring building. More cities, growing cities, building libraries and markets and such.

[Boldly Going Nowhere]

This gives a pretty good picture of what's going on in your part of the world. I have to say, I'm enjoying the new and improved PB17 because there is now some good reporting! Thanks for the update.

Edit: Now that I reread what I wrote, I am not intending to make any commentary toward the validity of your thoughts toward your opponents. Rather, I should have said that I appreciate you giving us a clear picture of what your thought process is at this point.

[Mardoc]

Glad to see someone's reading! WRT your disclaimer: how could you know if I'm correct, if I'm the only perspective you see?

Zanth picked his target. I'm sure he can win this eventually, but I'm also glad to see it's the Dutch. I saw a pair of HA/cat stacks both pretty big when crossing Dutch lands, Slowcheetah ought to be able to make Zanth pay for the land.



Played, revolted to Slavery/Mercantilism. 100% gold rate went from 480 + 3 beakers to 406 + 26 beakers. More of a hit than I was expecting, honestly - partially blamed on the dozen or so engineers hired, but still. Then I applied the whip, and went down to 355/26. Basically lost 100 gpt in a single turn - that wipes out a good deal of the progress I've made. Suppressed my score all the way back to fourth again, too. On the other hand, in return, I got four settlers, 2 courthouses (each in an 11 gpt maint city), a forge, a granary, two libraries, and 45 GPP spread out across the empire. And 22 hpt from free specialists. I'm pretty sure this was still the right move, but it does sting!

Gotta believe that all this investment in infrastructure and new cities will pay off in the long run. This is definitely the right era to be boosting hammers, since I'm turning right around and investing them directly into commerce boosters of one form or another.

After all that, demos look a lot sadder. Not sure how, but Zanth seems to have stepped on the gas in GNP, too, making the gap further than I thought this morning.



Definitely going to keep the stay in Slavery to a minimum, though. We've pretty much used up the surplus population for a while, so I won't be whipping much more regardless; better to get into a civic that provides a bonus. Which will probably be Caste, since my workers seem to be pretty much caught up now.

[Mardoc]

Y'know, any turn that includes 10 whips for about 30 pop, deserves some Devo:

[Mardoc]

Not sure how, but Zanth seems to have stepped on the gas in GNP, too, making the gap further than I thought this morning.

Ok, I reviewed my demos screenies; this is totally false. In fact, his GNP went down by a couple dozen, consistent with, say, starting to pay unit supply costs on an army . What really happened is that my GNP went down further than I thought.

I documented where 102 of the gap came from: increased civic costs, lost trade routes, whipped population. Where'd the rest come from? It must have been turning research off. Lost 178 GNP by going from 60% science to 0%. In retrospect, it makes sense that my 0-100 GNP swing would be larger than Zanth's - I've got a bigger empire that's non-Org. Scaled to the full swing, that's 297 GNP difference solely on where I'm running the slider today. That's rather more of a swing than I thought I'd have.

That, in turn, means I'm somewhere between 410 and -20 GNP behind Zanth, depending on where both of us are running our sliders. He's probably able to run his average slider higher than me. But things aren't as bad as they seem this turn. My population's going to grow back, the infrastructure will start producing, and we're not far from a golden age. And we're putting up Banks which ought to both decrease the 100% gold gap and make it occur less often.

I wish I could see something more to do, but I really don't see anything better than continuing the path I'm on. More cities with more population and bigger multipliers, courthouses, and the special bonuses of golden age and national wonders, seem to be the only tools I've got. After Education, there's not even any economic techs available to me for a while; the closest I can get is Chemistry for workshops and Astronomy for observatories. I want to go conquering, but I'm not actually convinced that's going to help my tech rate except in the long term, nor do I believe that I could do it with my current tech.

The good news is that with both gross profits and expenses so high, and with net profits the only thing I care about, multipliers should have a very dramatic effect. About half my commerce goes to expenses. That means that +50% to half of my gross commerce (like a bank) turns into actually +50% to my net commerce!

Ah well. Patience, Mardoc! Patience.

[Mardoc]

More successful warring. Gawdzak's going faster than I thought he could, actually. Guess Yuri was farmer's gambiting too.




I've got a settler/longbow on a boat, heading west next turn, and another set ready to board in two turns. Hopefully they'll make it before China lays claim to those islands.

And...it looks like Slowcheetah attempted to *defend* with cat/HA? Zanth got a GG, Slow didn't. Very confusing, I'd have thought if he attacked out, he could have absolutely shredded Zanth's stack, maybe even eradicated it. Maybe Zanth won't pay as much for the Netherlands as I was hoping .






Here's the current demographics, only improved GNP by 15 over last turn.




100% beaker, for comparison: swing of 268. I can't actually afford to run 100% this turn, my breakeven rate must be about 45.

And, a city to show off. When I took over, Sinop had 1 pop, and one improved tile. Now it's starting to shine . Shouldn't have any trouble putting up more infrastructure here, or else units. It's the best target for the Confucian missionary I have in the area, too - 3 hpt boost from that! Plus defense bonus on the edge of the empire, plus a chance of taking some Sumerian tiles.