[SPOILERS] The Suttree Gambit: Catherine of China

[suttree]

Here are some virtues of CRE/IMP

IMP

*FOOD EFFECTS:

1) A 4->2 whip costs 25f. 25*1.5=37.5, but a 6->3 whip costs 42f. So even after overflow food (~2-3f lost), there is a slight food bonus effect.

2) Costing a settler in food also drives home the point that IMP is best understood as *boosting food in cities that are producing settlers*

This means:
*Specialists are cheaper
*+1 happy is worth more (more frequent whips)

*HAPPINESS EFFECTS:

1) A city with happy cap 3 can whip settlers without support.
2) Double speed commerce modifier - two cities can benefit from commerce modifier at the same cost.

This means:
*IMP boosts happy available for early conversion to hammers
*Reduced demand for happy - x2 labour with increased productivity at the same happy cap.

*SPECIALIST EFFECT - 75h market returns 1.5g/t on two merchants + happy

The market may be worth building for the specialist slots alone (1.5g/t is worth 63g, 1 happy is worth ~29h.

CRE

*BEAKER EFFECT: Mysticism is 6T research in the ancient era.

The second city can claim a valuable second ring tile without a significant delay to food/BW/Pottery.

*HAPPY EFFECT - as with IMP, a double speed commerce modifier has a happy effect.

*SPECIALIST EFFECT - as with IMP, 45h library returns 1.5b/t on two scientists, worth 63b now. And so the library may be worth building for the specialist slots alone.

[suttree]

random thoughts on picks:

retep (Cha/Exp) - I think this should have been Spi/Exp. Why choose ToW Inca if you're not going to make a religious beeline? And there's plenty of happy already in that part of the tree. Found buddhism, build the Oracle, bulb Monarchy. Done.

porkin/joey - De Gaulle of Vikings - I think this should have been Fin civ. Vikings presumes coast. So settle a bunch of coastal cities, guarantee their safety with the Vikings, and Wharf it up. Wharves before courthouses.

gavagai Gandhi of Rome - I hope he and retep butt heads east of Mysticism.

gawdzak/BaII - Zara Yaqob of Byzantium - On dollar bills....

[suttree]

The value of +1 happy whipping 4->2

Whipping every x turns adds 10-x unhappiness

+1 happy, then, allows N=10/(10-X) whips over T= Nx turns.

That's always P=N-T/10=1 more whip than we would have otherwise, netting 35P hammers over T turns.

If we have enough food to grow 2->4 in 4 turns, so long as we're building food hammer units:
x=6, N=2.5, T=15
so we net 35h over 15t with a magical present value of 29h.

[suttree]

ON COMMERCE

Assume food surplus (1 labour substitutes commerce tile X for 4h)

*Cottages*

30h for the labour and 8h for the improvement
Substitutes 2h for 3.5c(4.3cFIN) on rivers and 2h for 2.5c(3cFIN)
Decreased by cost of maintaining labour

RIVERSIDE: 2h for 2.5c(3.3FIN) = 4->5(3->5)
DRY: 2h for 1.5c(2cFIN) = 4->3(1->1)

LESSON: LOOK TO SPECIALISTS OVER DRY COTTAGES

*Coast*

30h for the labour/60h for lighthouse/80h for wharf
Substitutes 2h for 2c/3c(2c/4cFIN)

2h for 1c/2c(1c/3cFIN) = 2->1/1->1(2->1/2->3)

LESSON: IF MUCH COAST, WHARVES BEFORE COURTHOUSES.

*Specialists*

30h for the labour/Library pays for itself

Substitutes 4h for 3GPP and 3b/t (66h/17t,133h/34t,200h/50t,...)
The Pyramids - 4h for 6b/t

4h for 3GPP and 3b/t - 1g/t (4->5)

LESSON: SPECIALISTS ARE GOOD UP TO ~3? LIBRARIES

PYRAMIDS ARE GOOD

*Building Commerce*

30h for the labour

Substitutes 3h for 3c
Multiplier effect: say beaker/gold multiplier of 1.75/1.25=1.4 -> 1 1/3?

3h for 2g -> 3b (1->1)

LESSON: ACADEMIES MAKE BUILDING WEALTH GOOD

[WilliamLP]

2) Costing a settler in food also drives home the point that IMP is best understood as *boosting food in cities that are producing settlers*

Interesting. Nice analysis posts, more like this please. I'm not sure I follow or accept at face value some of the conversion factors you use but that's what makes the game interesting.

gawdzak/BaII - Zara Yaqob of Byzantium - On dollar bills....

They're after the G-String synergy again?

gavagai Gandhi of Rome - I hope he and retep butt heads east of Mysticism.

Just wait and watch those two start right next to each other and implicitly negotiate a completely peaceful perfectly fair border and mutually prosper.

[Boldly Going Nowhere]

What is your assumed time horizon for paying off the cottage investment? How long do you anticipate the cottage having to pay off the investment of worker turns? How do you quantify the number of turns for the entire game and analysis of cottage turns to develop?

For a short time horizon, yes I agree that the specialists are a much better investment. However, the games tend to run very long and I think in the end the cottages will win out every time, even dry cottages.

[SevenSpirits]

I have to say I'm totally lost in your math here.

1) A 4->2 whip costs 25f. 25*1.5=37.5, but a 6->3 whip costs 42f. So even after overflow food (~2-3f lost), there is a slight food bonus effect.

Why are you multiplaying 25 food - the cost to grow from 2 to 4 with a granary - by 1.5? What does all of this mean?

The market may be worth building for the specialist slots alone (1.5g/t is worth 63g, 1 happy is worth ~29h.

What, huh, what? At what point did you even say how much the specialist slots are worth? And the gpt figure is assuming you will be constantly working the specialists, which is not a fair assumption - you often prefer to work tiles to specialists in most cities. And I don't know where the hammer value of the happiness came from. And I don't know why you're ignoring the major effect of the building on commerce. I am very confused.

Whipping every x turns adds 10-x unhappiness

What definition of "unhappiness" is in use here? I would say, whipping every 10 turns adds 1 unhappiness total. Whipping every turn adds 0.9 unhappiness PER TURN rounded up.

+1 happy, then, allows N=10/(10-X) whips over T= Nx turns.

Assuming we are always using the whip timer, +1 happy allows 1 additional whip, period. Why is this formula saying that marginal happiness results in a fixed value of whips per turn? (Or is this a marginal value of whips per turn...? Either way.)

That's always P=N-T/10=1 more whip than we would have otherwise, netting 35P hammers over T turns.

Why are you introducing a new variable P that is apparently equal to 1? Why is P in the next expression if it's 1? And how did we get from increased whips to increased hammers while ignoring the population?

[suttree]

1) A 4->2 whip costs 25f. 25*1.5=37.5, but a 6->3 whip costs 42f. So even after overflow food (~2-3f lost), there is a slight food bonus effect.

Why are you multiplaying 25 food - the cost to grow from 2 to 4 with a granary - by 1.5? What does all of this mean?

A 2-whip gives 60h. A 3-whip gives 90h. 90=1.5*60
A 2-whip costs 25f. A 3-whip costs 42f. 42>1.5*25.

This is slightly interesting because IMP boosts food here a little more than it boosts hammers, but the meaning:

We use food to buy hammers. Here, the price of 90h is 25f with IMP and 42f without. Since the price of hammers has gone down, we might buy more hammers. Or we could buy the same number of hammers, and have more food to spend on other things.

We know IMP boosts hammers, but it's fun to notice that it also has the effect of boosting our food income.

The market may be worth building for the specialist slots alone (1.5g/t is worth 63g, 1 happy is worth ~29h.

What, huh, what? At what point did you even say how much the specialist slots are worth? And the gpt figure is assuming you will be constantly working the specialists, which is not a fair assumption - you often prefer to work tiles to specialists in most cities. And I don't know where the hammer value of the happiness came from. And I don't know why you're ignoring the major effect of the building on commerce. I am very confused.

If I want to run specialists, I'm concerned with how much a specialist slot costs. Usually we would assume a specialist slot has a cost - markets are expensive. We would build them in cities for the major effect of the building on commerce. But, if I want to run specialists for their own sake (lets say I build the pyramids) a half price market seems worth building for the specialist slots alone.

Whipping every x turns adds 10-x unhappiness

What definition of "unhappiness" is in use here? I would say, whipping every 10 turns adds 1 unhappiness total. Whipping every turn adds 0.9 unhappiness PER TURN rounded up.

Should have said "accumulates 10-x turns of unhappy on the whip timer for each whip"
Whip. x turns later you have 10-x on the whip timer.
Whip. x turns later you have 2(10-x) on the whip timer.
etc.

+1 happy, then, allows N=10/(10-X) whips over T= Nx turns.

Assuming we are always using the whip timer, +1 happy allows 1 additional whip, period.

OK. But the return on that one additional whip is spread out over a different number of turns depending on how frequently we whip. If our city is whipping every 10 turns, +1 happy is worth nothing unless I deviate from my plan to keep whipping 4->2. It's worth more if we have lots of food (x is smaller).

Why is this formula saying that marginal happiness results in a fixed value of whips per turn?

Because x is the number of turns between whips. So its unsurprising whips per turn = 1/x.

That's always P=N-T/10=1 more whip than we would have otherwise, netting 35P hammers over T turns.

Why are you introducing a new variable P that is apparently equal to 1? Why is P in the next expression if it's 1? And how did we get from increased whips to increased hammers while ignoring the population?

The post is "The value of +1 happy whipping 4->2". P=1 is non-obvious, and 35P because I felt like it

[suttree]

What is your assumed time horizon for paying off the cottage investment?

The assumption is that 1c now is worth 2c thirty turns from now.

How long do you anticipate the cottage having to pay off the investment of worker turns?

8h is small, so I didn't include it in the calculation at all. It's there to compare with the cost of other tiles.

How do you quantify the number of turns for the entire game and analysis of cottage turns to develop?

I don't. The numbers assume the game goes on forever - so all cottages have time to fully develop and pay off.

For a short time horizon, yes I agree that the specialists are a much better investment. However, the games tend to run very long and I think in the end the cottages will win out every time, even dry cottages.

That's fair. But the reason you give - the game will run very long - isn't a reason to agree. As above, the model assumes the game will go on forever.

Maybe commerce now is less valuable and commerce later is more valuable.

In the context of this game, I want to expand very quickly, so I think I will avoid dry cottages except in cities with academies.

[suttree]

[snip]
I happen to know all the details, but I have no idea how to recount them in a manner that will make sense to most readers. For instance, I am not even sure who' I am, and my embarrassment on that matter makes me wonder if you will believe anything I reveal. Worse yet, I am at the moment very conscious of a squirrel-in Central Park, just off Sixty-eighth Street, in New York City-that is leaping from one tree to another, and I think that happens on the night of July 6 (or is it the morning of July 7), but fitting the squirrel together with Pitboss 21 is, for the present, beyond my powers. I beg your tolerance. There is nothing I can do to make things any easier for any of us, and you will have to accept being addressed by a disembodied voice just as I accept the compulsion to speak out even though I am painfully aware that I am talking to an invisible, perhaps nonexistent, audience. Wise men have regarded the earth as a tragedy, a farce, even an illusionist's trick; but all, if they are truly wise and not merely intellectual rapists, recognize that it is certainly some kind of stage in which we all play roles, most of us being very poorly coached and totally unrehearsed before the curtain rises. Is it too much if I ask, tentatively, that we agree to look upon it as a circus, a touring carnival wandering about the sun for a record season of four billion years and producing new monsters and miracles, hoaxes and bloody mishaps, wonders and blunders, but never quite entertaining the customers well enough to prevent them from leaving, one by one, and returning to their homes for a long and bored winter's sleep under the dust? Then, say, for a while at least, that I have found an identity as ringmaster; but that crown sits uneasily on my head (if I have a head) and I must warn you that the troupe is small for a universe this size and many of us have to double or triple our stints, so you can expect me back in many other guises. Indeed do many things come to pass.
[/snip]