WW 34--The Slugfest!

[Jkaen]

I think you overvalue the importance of vote placement. We're not playing with a majority lynch here. Votes during a day only serve to highlight your suspicions to make it more clear from whom you expect answers at the current time. I wouldn't think that anyone is scared to vote for someone, as it's not the vote that matters, it's your words supporting it that do.

Maybe you are right, the words supporting the vote are important

Well I think Bob is town and we should move on to someone else.

Jkaen

[AdrienIer]

I think this:

Wow 3 kills, 2 on team mafia but not openly mafia one with a fun role. Vig is most likely but you never know, if Bob is saying the truth there are many ways to get killed in this setup. With 16 players at the start and already 2 out of 3 kills being traitors we might only be looking at ~2 mafia and some hidden supporters.
As for today I'm going to have to go after Bob, if you're not town and no one dares attack you at night by fear of being killed in return you become unstoppable. Sorry, your role makes sense but now that it's revealed it's just too dangerous.[/color]

Is much more suspicious.

I would move my vote to AdrienIer, but [...]

Maybe I should explain my reasoning more then ? There are 4 possibilities, either he's town or he's not, and either he's lying or he's not. If he's not town we want to lynch him anyway, I can't imagine any vig attempting anything now, or a verification from a cop, so we would need to do it by day without any more insight. If he's town he must have suspected that there would be no mafia attempt at him during the night because he was a possible target for the day lynch and the reveal has made that lynch more likely, so there's no real reason for him to reveal himself like this, whether it's a true reveal or not. I consider the probabilities to be over 1/12 in his case.
I also realize that with each day where Bob stays alive and no mafia dies it brings more suspicion on him. I wouldn't mind letting him live another day if I had another lead.

[Jkaen]

I think adrien has posted so little i can't get a read on him.

Jabbz I think overreacted a bit suspiciously to zak weak accusation of him pushing the noob factor, but thats about it

[Bobchillingworth]

So after suspicion during Day 1, and a very near hanging at the end of day, did you think that scum investigating or killing you would have been more likely than a town cop? Wouldn't that have been the advantage of claiming during the night, to protect the village? Surely the only way delaying the claim made sense is if you thought the chance that one of the ~4 scum hitting you in the night, was higher than one of the ~12 town doing it?

Well, it's true that I wasn't particularly likely to be targeted by scum for a night kill, but that same reasoning extends to an attempt by a vig. I did think there was a worthwhile chance that scum might attempt to roleblock or otherwise attempt to non-lethally hinder me. I make no claim as to having made an optimal play regarding the timing of my role reveal

Maybe I should explain my reasoning more then ? There are 4 possibilities, either he's town or he's not, and either he's lying or he's not. If he's not town we want to lynch him anyway, I can't imagine any vig attempting anything now, or a verification from a cop, so we would need to do it by day without any more insight. If he's town he must have suspected that there would be no mafia attempt at him during the night because he was a possible target for the day lynch and the reveal has made that lynch more likely, so there's no real reason for him to reveal himself like this, whether it's a true reveal or not. I consider the probabilities to be over 1/12 in his case.
I also realize that with each day where Bob stays alive and no mafia dies it brings more suspicion on him. I wouldn't mind letting him live another day if I had another lead.

Must be a really interesting dilemma for the scum

They know I'm with the village (or, at least, not with their scum faction)

If they believe me, they can't night kill me.

If they think I'm probably lying about my role, because I'm actually a seer or doctor or something and I want to stay alive at night as long as possible, then it's still a big risk to target me.


Based on what I've claimed, they can't even safely role, flavor or name-scan me (assuming any of those are options) in order to see if I'm worth killing.


I'd sure want to lynch me in that situation!

the reveal has made that lynch more likely, so there's no real reason for him to reveal himself like this

Sounds to me like prime scum behavior! I'd certainly rate myself as having 92% odds of being scum

[novice]

I did think there was a worthwhile chance that scum might attempt to roleblock or otherwise attempt to non-lethally hinder me.

Why would you think that?

[Bobchillingworth]

I did think there was a worthwhile chance that scum might attempt to roleblock or otherwise attempt to non-lethally hinder me.

Why would you think that?

I've gotten N1 killed by scum once before, and often get blocked by scum because I tend to be quite good at picking my night targets and advocating for myself to stay alive during the day.

[AdrienIer]

A scum has scummates to defend him during the day, I understand why a scum under some pressure would place a gamble like this. Not that I'm saying that Jowy or Lewwyn are scum, it would be too obvious.

[Gazglum]

Well, it's true that I wasn't particularly likely to be targeted by scum for a night kill, but that same reasoning extends to an attempt by a vig.

Shouldn't it be the opposite reasoning, rather than teh same? If you've been a near lynch, and the preferred target of several people, wouldn't that increase the odds of a vig shot at the same time as decreasing the odds of a scum kill?

[AdrienIer]

You're right Gazglum, vigs tend to after the day victims to get rid of suspects as fast as possible. At least that's how I'd play it.

[Bobchillingworth]

Shouldn't it be the opposite reasoning, rather than teh same? If you've been a near lynch, and the preferred target of several people, wouldn't that increase the odds of a vig shot at the same time as decreasing the odds of a scum kill?

I didn't think so, but sure, your reasoning is sound. Perhaps I made a mistake, although I didn't explode.



Let's be honest though, if I had revealed N1 we'd be hearing cries now instead about how I only did so because I'm scum and was terrified of a vig shooting me or seer scanning me. Or conversely if I revealed D3+ people would complain that I was being unacceptably reckless by potentially allowing village power roles to suicide with me on multiple occasions. When I made my reveal is irrelevant for people who want to lynch me as a matter of policy.