WW 34--The Slugfest!

[Lewwyn]

Maybe I should explain my reasoning more then ? There are 4 possibilities, either he's town or he's not, and either he's lying or he's not. If he's not town we want to lynch him anyway, I can't imagine any vig attempting anything now, or a verification from a cop, so we would need to do it by day without any more insight. If he's town he must have suspected that there would be no mafia attempt at him during the night because he was a possible target for the day lynch and the reveal has made that lynch more likely, so there's no real reason for him to reveal himself like this, whether it's a true reveal or not. I consider the probabilities to be over 1/12 in his case.
I also realize that with each day where Bob stays alive and no mafia dies it brings more suspicion on him. I wouldn't mind letting him live another day if I had another lead.

I'm not sure I follow your logic. Your probabilities are... unclear. 1/12 in terms of what that he's town? How do you come up with that. The more I read this the less it makes sense.

A scum has scummates to defend him during the day, I understand why a scum under some pressure would place a gamble like this. Not that I'm saying that Jowy or Lewwyn are scum, it would be too obvious.

Right and villagers never try to protect people they think are town.

I'm not impressed with your reasoning in the least.

Oh look Jabbz came back to post:

I think adrien has posted so little i can't get a read on him.

Jabbz I think overreacted a bit suspiciously to zak weak accusation of him pushing the noob factor, but thats about it

And if that had been the only think Zak had done, then yeah it would be overreacting. He has been all over me the entire game so far though, so I think it's a little bit more warranted.

Wonderful. That is more of the same, "woe is me, I'm innocent I don't know why people are after me". Newsflash there's like 2 people voting for you, and you still haven't given me a reason not to suspect you.

[Lewwyn]

I feel like we're circling the drain a bit here.

[novice]

I mean that he could have chosen to claim something else, if he's scum.

OK, that is a valid point. In a role madness game he had more options.

Lewwyn, could you summarize your takes on Jabbz and AdrienIer? Jabbz is too defensive and AdrienIer's reasoning doesn't make sense? Anything else?

[Jabbz]

I'll be more aggressive with my posting tomorrow Lewwyn. I've been peeking in off and on today, and have some good ideas of whats going on, but I'm tied down on time until tomorrow. Only two people are voting for me. You have a weak as shit case against me and Gazglum seems to be doing more poking than actually accusing me of anything. Just not worried enough to get defensive atm.

[Lewwyn]

Lewwyn, could you summarize your takes on Jabbz and AdrienIer? Jabbz is too defensive and AdrienIer's reasoning doesn't make sense? Anything else?

Jabbz has only voted for one person the whole game. He voted for Rowain and then halfway through day 1 swapped to No Lynch. Today he has not voted nor voiced suspicion anyone. Instead today he has evaded making any type of stand by saying that Zak has been hounding him all game trying to get him lynched. He's also defended a bit against me, but beyond that it really appears to me as though he's trying to fly under the radar by avoiding voting for people.

AdrienIer I haven't voted for but I do suspect based on the reasoning being provided. You tell me novice. Can you understand what he's saying in his probabilities post?

[Lewwyn]

I'll be more aggressive with my posting tomorrow Lewwyn. I've been peeking in off and on today, and have some good ideas of whats going on, but I'm tied down on time until tomorrow. Only two people are voting for me. You have a weak as shit case against me and Gazglum seems to be doing more poking than actually accusing me of anything. Just not worried enough to get defensive atm.

But... you are being defensive. I never said I had a strong case. I said you're avoiding saying anything that will give people a read on you. You say you're busy. But in this post you could have just said, "I suspect ____" and voted. Instead you are continuing to try and give the brush off.

[Jkaen]

Ok, its got to the point that I hate with obvious early cases as I alluded to yesterday, in that village ADHD kicks in and we feel the need to start looking around elsewhere.

Despite the fact I was arguing not to do that yesterday, I have found myself doing it anyway.

I currently see 2 possibilities of Bob being village. First is that he isn't lying about the role and has just misplayed it horribly, which is not something i would really expect form bob

Second is that he has decided to play some weird gambit to 'keep things interesting for himself' this wouldn't be the first time he has come in with some weird approach that got him killed quickly unfortunately.

I still think he is our best shot, but as Goreripper suggested Jowy is not far behind as suspect number 2.

Post #258 & #266 he gives town reads to the Bob wagonners as the scum would have been happy to see rowain lynched as they thought he was village... why wouldnt they have been happy seeing bob lynched thinking he was village. does Jowy know he isnt?

Vote #322 he votes for me with no explanation

We then have a whole string of votes trying to defend bob until he gives in to my logic in post #344

The decides Bob is town after all and votes back onto me, again with no reason in #366 after being asked by brick to give a reason gives this:

I felt that his Day 1 play could be a classic case of scum trying to make themselves look good by disregarding the merits of the leading wagons that would end up flipping town. I saw his strike at Bob as an opportunistic move, as it is hard as scum to pretend to hunt scum by play, but it is easy to point out a scummy role claim. I think it's important to listen to everyone, and he made a good point about Brick's post in relation to Bob's claim.

Day 1 comment could apply to half this field, and then i did some proper hunting once i felt there was real evidence to follow

He starts around this time discussing the idea of mass claims way too early in the game. (role madness game means mass claims less useful than normal anyway)

One of my favourite posts of his is then

I think you overvalue the importance of vote placement. We're not playing with a majority lynch here. Votes during a day only serve to highlight your suspicions to make it more clear from whom you expect answers at the current time. I wouldn't think that anyone is scared to vote for someone, as it's not the vote that matters, it's your words supporting it that do.

Given he has made no effort to do so himself.

Brick pushes him on the switching from me to bob and back, which Jowy states

I think it's good to give everyone the benefit of the doubt.

Not sure how you can do that in a werewolf game.

[novice]

AdrienIer I haven't voted for but I do suspect based on the reasoning being provided. You tell me novice. Can you understand what he's saying in his probabilities post?

Maybe I should explain my reasoning more then ? There are 4 possibilities, either he's town or he's not, and either he's lying or he's not. If he's not town we want to lynch him anyway, I can't imagine any vig attempting anything now, or a verification from a cop, so we would need to do it by day without any more insight. If he's town he must have suspected that there would be no mafia attempt at him during the night because he was a possible target for the day lynch and the reveal has made that lynch more likely, so there's no real reason for him to reveal himself like this, whether it's a true reveal or not. I consider the probabilities to be over 1/12 in his case.
I also realize that with each day where Bob stays alive and no mafia dies it brings more suspicion on him. I wouldn't mind letting him live another day if I had another lead.

I agree it's not very coherent. Regarding the 1/12 probability I assumed he was trying to say that Bob was more likely than average to be scum, with 12 non-AdrienIer players left alive. I'm not sure why he would count the possibility of someone being town and lying about his claim, either.

Anyway, I don't get the sense from this post that he's trying to rationalize a vote with bogus reasoning. Rather it feels like he's failing to explain a genuine conviction. But that is all based on feel, I admit.

[novice]

I'll be more aggressive with my posting tomorrow Lewwyn. I've been peeking in off and on today, and have some good ideas of whats going on, but I'm tied down on time until tomorrow.

Give us the cliff notes and you can elaborate tomorrow.

[Jowy]

Second is that he has decided to play some weird gambit to 'keep things interesting for himself' this wouldn't be the first time he has come in with some weird approach that got him killed quickly unfortunately.

I agree with this, Bob is someone who would try a gambit.

Post #258 & #266 he gives town reads to the Bob wagonners as the scum would have been happy to see rowain lynched as they thought he was village... why wouldnt they have been happy seeing bob lynched thinking he was village. does Jowy know he isnt?

Rowain is the best town player, he gets killed early more often than anyone else.

Day 1 comment could apply to half this field, and then i did some proper hunting once i felt there was real evidence to follow
[/quote

Who did you hunt?

[quote='Jkaen' pid='515736' dateline='1421738762']
He starts around this time discussing the idea of mass claims way too early in the game. (role madness game means mass claims less useful than normal anyway)

Not true, role madness is better! Vanilla townies are more out of place so scum can't just go with the easy lie.

One of my favourite posts of his is then

I think you overvalue the importance of vote placement. We're not playing with a majority lynch here. Votes during a day only serve to highlight your suspicions to make it more clear from whom you expect answers at the current time. I wouldn't think that anyone is scared to vote for someone, as it's not the vote that matters, it's your words supporting it that do.

Given he has made no effort to do so himself.

We were talking about being scared. Scum would not be scared to vote for someone, why would they? It's just a vote, it won't matter until the end of the day. It's the words behind that vote that can be analyzed, and it's the words that can build pressure against someone. You theorized that I'm scared to vote for Bob, and I rebute that no-one is scared to vote for anyone.

Brick pushes him on the switching from me to bob and back, which Jowy states

I think it's good to give everyone the benefit of the doubt.

Not sure how you can do that in a werewolf game.

If everyone stops listening to those who they suspect, we'd have a deaf town