Summaries to help process thoughts.
Dead:
Rowain. Traitor for the mob.
Qgqqqqq. Town. Ability to steal aspects of dead people's roles. Shot.
sunrise. Traitor for the mafia. PM contains (possibly fluff?) references to using drugs. Burnt.
Known / Claimed actions:
Goreripper drugged for half a day.
BRick claimed action used on him with non-claimed 'theme'.
Roleclaims:
bob - Hyperbomb. Explodes on visit, taking himself and any visitors with him.
MJW posts:
Traitors don't know who scum are, scum didn't know who traitors were.
-- lynching (or trying not to lynch) Rowain doesn't count much for scum tells; sunrise kill could possibly be scum (though fire being method of death suggests against that given the other death that night was to bullets)
Deliberately not providing a vote count
-- either something funny is going on with them for whatever reason that he wants to conceal, or he's trying to convey that impression
-- my supposition would be the former
mob == mafia
-- coupled with method of the second kill last night, and the fact we've had two traitors show up so far, tends to imply only one scum faction, and either an SK or trigger-happy vig.
sunrise had no power, but other text 'may or may not be flavour'
-- this means it's flavour, because by definition unless it's a power it cannot have any effect on the game
every message means something
-- ie. "I lied when I said sunrise had no power, because he does, I just didn't classify it as one for incomprehensible reasons"
scum can talk during the day
-- not
really news, or important, but I'd like to put it on the record that WW33 where we *couldn't* talk during the day was some of the most fun I've had as scum
Today:
Wagon on Bob for his bomb claim. Initial posts includes the absolute nonsense of "I understand if you want to policy lynch me for this bastard role", when the only people who should be wanting to lynch an actual bomb are scum (who can't kill them at night without losing someone). I'd also contend it's not a bastard role - it's merely a bomb who can't trivially become confirmed unkillable town.
Interesting arguments
- Jkaen's "bob claimed right after BRick mentioned knowing he was visited overnight", implying bob then considered it safe to claim a role that could be disproven by anyone attempting to visit him.
To be honest, I think this possibly says more about Jkaen than it does bob. As several people have already pointed out, knowing you're the target of a night action is generally the exception, rather than the rule, and bob suddenly deciding to come up with a fake claim that depended on BRick's pointing out that an exception exists in this game seems a bit far fetched -
unless you consider Jkaen having knowledge of another ability that the target knows about, either his own or used on him.
So, Jkaen, which is it?
- various points raised about the timing of the claim - bob delayed the claim 'til today, even after being almost on the block yesterday, which would generally indicate you're significantly more likely to be visited by investigative roles than have scum try to kill you. Why the claim this morning, rather than last night, if you're trying to spare town-aligned lives?
Really don't like AdrienIer's "yes, we should definitely policy lynch bob". The rest of the arguments are based on legitimate,
stated reasons why they believe the claim to be false. Adrien's is just "well, you
might be lying, and that's too dangerous to risk." And when pressed, is followed by "well, taking every event as equally likely, the numbers say he's probably scum too." Uh, no.
Attempts to attribute the deaths to various parties. Given the methods, I'd say the options are scum shooting and sk/whatever burning; or scum burning for some weird reason (normally wouldn't even include this as an option, but MJW) and a vig shooting. More likely the former.
...but then Jkaen came to pretty much the exact opposite conclusion from me, so take either of my suggested scenarios with a grain of salt based on that
Jkaen suspects there is a vig, rather than other possible sources of death, based on various things including "[his] flavour text comments".
(January 19th, 2015, 10:49)Bobchillingworth Wrote: What kind of vig shoots someone N1 on the basis of zero evidence?
Lewwyn
bob Wrote:Also, we're all playing in a bastard role game. Hooray.
...you weren't expecting from the start that based on MJW? For shame.
(January 19th, 2015, 21:54)Goreripper Wrote: It seems very plausible to me if the game manager is completely insane so yes
<snip>
Again if the game manager is insane.
...not sure why you're including those 'ifs' there
Goreripper Wrote:I am post restricted half the day and will still contribute twice as much as Mattimeo and Baii combined.
:D :D
...and after all that analysis on why bob's claim perhaps wasn't the most town-aligned thing to do, I think I still have to give the very strong role the benefit of the doubt for a little while - because if he's town, the
only way for scum to get rid of him is a lynch, while if he's scum there are still other scum out there for us to hunt 'til we're wondering where the last one is hiding.
Jkaen, I really want to head your reasoning for why BRick's awareness of being targetted overnight means everyone would be, and a little more detail about why you suspect there's a vig.
Fake edit: Nice timing, zak
