WW35: Not Another TPS Report [Game Thread]

[Twinkletoes89]

Checking in at last.

Learned something new today - was wondering what on earth UTC was, now I know that its pretty much GMT I know when the days start and end...

I'm not going to be much help for most of this day - been spending most of my day working on finalising my PhD proposal which needs to be submitted for funding in 3 days and I have a job interview tomorrow before heading to a board game night. Once I'm back tomorrow night I'll read up and contribute as much as I can up to the deadline.

To address the discussion on my rejected role - I didn't really understand how it might be useful. I saw it as a vehicle to clear people if I'm lucky or cause confusion if I'm not. To get most use out of it, I should use it often early to try and get people cleared, but that also increases the odds of a cock-up and dying without finding out enough. It was a risky choice and given its my first game back, I didn't want to leave my whole game up to chance.

I'm up for another hour or so whilst I catch up on the Big Bash Final highlights, so if you want to question me - now is the best time for at least 24 hours

[zakalwe]

I have an early flight tomorrow for a work trip so I may be awol until tomorrow night.

Incoming "too busy so forgot to send scry" claim for day 2.

Compared to his baseline, I'd say Novice is actually super scummy so far. Problem is, if his claim is true, that may be deliberate.

[Bobchillingworth]

Wow, I also didn't expect that Brick would reveal exactly who discarded what roles. I can't complain, since my discarded role was the worst possible and most unpleasant in the entire list, but I'm actually in favor of restarting to spare the poor people who, rightly or wrongly, are now going to get heat for discarding key village roles.


... That said, I'm voting novice because, if we're playing on, I can't just disregard him disposing of such an important role. Yeah, he could be the Cop, but odds are much better that he's some flavor of scum.


Lewwyn might be a Mason or something. Since IIRC there are no scum Masons, any 2+ declared Masons are very likely village, and anyone whose publically announced Mason buddy dies are fully confirmed.


As for Qg's post that nobody likes, this might be bringing in too much outside information, but I'm almost certain I know what site he's talking about having played on before (he linked me there a couple weeks ago), and I believe he did indeed at one point play with the role he described. I find his discard excuse at least faintly credible.

[Jowy]

Town read on TT.

Hider is still a great role though

[Azarius]

I believe the reasoning is that I'd gravitate to the easier roles to play, and town is easier to play than scum.

Full disclosure, if my other choice had been Mafia Goon I'd have taken it just for the fun factor.

Well, that does make sense.

[Twinkletoes89]

I have to agree with Bob that it is very hard to ignore the people who have discarded powerful roles.

Looking at the list, these roles stick out:

Lewwyn - Innocent Child - That is a valuable person that is able to prove their innocence and clear themselves from suspicion. I may be missing something but that seems valuable in an experienced player's hands.

Novice - Doctor - If you only have villager roles to choose from, you want the village to win and so you'd take the doctor role rather than risk the village not having one. That has to hint at him being either a Serial Killer or Mafia.

Ichabod - Backup Doctor - Similar reasoning as with Novice and this role could be even more powerful if mafia got the doctor early and started taking risks.

Qgqqqqq - Roleblocker - Powerful village role for a guy who's normally village. Got to be something good to turn that down and deny the village their only chance at having a roleblocker. Would need a good explanation to get out of that

Mattimeo - FBI Agent - One of the only roles that could help the village find a Serial Killer. I have little doubt that at least one of them will be in the game so this role seems very useful. Though, in fairness, it does also seem a bit of a dull role.

Azarius - Vanilla Cop - A valuable role and one that would seem to be quite fun to play in terms of it being simple to understand and potentially very useful for the village.

Jowy - Mafia Tracker - To turn down a strong Mafia role suggests that their other choice likely has a village lean. As dtay rightly suggests, its eminently possible that someone could get offered two scum roles, but this probability is inflated because of the number of mafia goon roles. I'd wager it is unlikely to choose to be a less powerful scum role, so I'd say the odds favour him being town.


This is speculation, but given that it is Day One its the closest we have to hard evidence to judge against. Seeing how these people justify their choices will help make things a bit clearer.

[Molach]

Incidentally probability of serial killer post discards (without assuming anything with regards to whether people want or don't want to keep the role) is ~81% (you have to be careful to take into account the without-replacement nature of this drawing if the simulated example has a lot of draws taking place).

If you think people actively want SK, it's higher than that. The opposite, then lower.

I don't think giving Bob a mafia lean for rejecting awful-village makes sense, since he'd also reject awful-village for normal-village. At worst, knowing that he discarded awful village cancels out any prior judgment that Bob doesn't like playing scum, but even then it would just bring his p(scum) up to the same level as everyone else.

SK-calculation - I see the error of my ways, I did account for draw without replacement, but forgot that every player gets two cards. Nice. I do think most players would like to play SK.
And I guess most players mildly like to avoid mafia, so Bob, for instance, by drawing the terrible town card is bumped towards looking more beningly upon a potential mafia card.
Active players might prefer mafia over vanila or other passive/useless roles.

Some thoughts after reading through:
Crossposted with Brick - seems more people than me didn't know about discard rules.
If novice knew about the rule - I can't see him ditching doctor for any mafia. Because ditching doctor, and then failing to die or produce cop reads is...not good. So if he is mafia, he didn't know about the revealed discards in my opinion.

I agree with a lot of Dtay's contributions, not really what I would expect from a fresh mafia ("No prior experience of note"). What does "of note" mean, though? I see some things are pretty safe to say even as mafia, but also seeing willingness to be actively hunting.

Jabbz says he played scum a few times and would like to try town game for once - however he discarded a mafia, so preferance might not matter in what he ended up playing this game either...

Jowy gave Meiz' town read for a meta post? It was helpful, I copied over the missing-role list to a document, but town lean that early.

[Ichabod]

I have an early flight tomorrow for a work trip so I may be awol until tomorrow night.

Incoming "too busy so forgot to send scry" claim for day 2.

Compared to his baseline, I'd say Novice is actually super scummy so far. Problem is, if his claim is true, that may be deliberate.

Why would acting scummy help him after having claimed, if he's town? I can't see a reason why he'd do it deliberately.

I didn't see anything particularly scummy about novice, by the way.

[Molach]

Can you clarify your statement on Fenn? I don't follow your reasoning on how him discarding vanilla town gives him a town lean.

Psychological, I think new players would try the 'find the bad guys' game first if they had a choice.
Based on own experiences, and some WW quicktopic threads I've read.
Since he discarded a town role he at least had that option.
But Fenn did say he played a game in 2012, so not quite new, less argument. If he already played town once ready for mafia

And if Azarius did not know about discards either, then I really agree vanilla cop gets worse. I know I thought so before startup. In hindsight, I still stand by that any of those who threw a semi-useful role away getting scanned "vanilla" would have been an instant lynch, with a side order of catching fake claims of vanilla from SK's or others.

On to mattimeo for the night.

[Fenn]

Getting town vibes so far from TT, satisfied with his contributions, so I don't see reason to pursue him further atm.

Jowy's one-liner posts aren't very helpful imo, mostly just stating reads without giving any reasons.

Thinking about it, Vanilla Cop can be very powerful in this gametype - unlike regular Cop your potential targets are narrowed down to anybody who didn't discard a vanilla role, against whom a Vanilla result is just as incriminating as Guilty would be (more so even because of possible Godfather). Possibly Mattimeo didn't consider this when he discarded it or his other option was better in his eyes. Not a scum tell but not a town tell either I don't think.

Bob, why vote novice at this time? He's already been pressured into claiming Cop, I don't think more votes would get any more useful information out of him. If he's still the most suspect overall near deadline he could be lynched then.

Lewwyn still hasn't spoken up yet, and it'd be helpful to hear an explanation for chucking IC beyond vague meta reasons. That's probably all from me tonight, got to make dinner.