WW35: Not Another TPS Report [Game Thread]

[Lewwyn]

The exchange between Ichabod and dtay is really interesting. (posts 49-59) I'm not going to quote the whole thing. Basically Ichabod accusing dtay of being meta-y wolf. Honestly it sounds a little bit like a wolf going in on a townie, getting rebuffed and backtracking slowly. When Ichabod asks, "What do you think about this?" It looks like he's looking for his final way out and to make his earlier throwing of suspicion seem less intent.

FoS: Ichabod

[Lewwyn]

TT rejecting the hider role sort of fits with my psychological model of him. I also think he'd be liable to pick a scum role, though, if he had the chance.

Wait whats your psychological model of TT?

[Mattimeo]

Remaining Meta Suspicions: Of remaining players I think Azarius, TT, and Matt (as well obviously the previously voted for Lew and Novice) are worth watching since they discard kind-of-good to good town roles, giving them slightly higher odds of being scum, but not to a large extent or anything.

To be honest, with the fact that discards are known (and yes, I'm aware that some people apparently weren't aware that they were linked to the person who discarded them, and I believe that BRick announcing this in thread is a bit unfair to everyone who discarded a strong role, whether they understood the process correctly or not) ditching a strong town role is actually significantly more indicative of being an even stronger town role than anything else. Specifically because of the factor you suggested - pure numbers (and therefore first level thinking) puts the odds of bring scum higher, therefore no-one would actually do it.

Of course, we descent into WIFOM territory from there. And I may be somewhat biased in presenting this side of the equation.

[Mattimeo]

Other meta aspects: who's more likely to pick scum given the opportunity? And who'd pick town every time if they had the option?

I'd give zak and Lewwyn mild town leans for being actual scum (and not just traitors) last game.
Of course, then I'd have to give myself a massive scum lean, because if I'd the option of scum I would have taken it so fast. Not that my discard does much to indicate I didn't do that. Quite the opposite, really :/

[Lewwyn]

Remaining Meta Suspicions: Of remaining players I think Azarius, TT, and Matt (as well obviously the previously voted for Lew and Novice) are worth watching since they discard kind-of-good to good town roles, giving them slightly higher odds of being scum, but not to a large extent or anything.

To be honest, with the fact that discards are known (and yes, I'm aware that some people apparently weren't aware that they were linked to the person who discarded them, and I believe that BRick announcing this in thread is a bit unfair to everyone who discarded a strong role, whether they understood the process correctly or not) ditching a strong town role is actually significantly more indicative of being an even stronger town role than anything else. Specifically because of the factor you suggested - pure numbers (and therefore first level thinking) puts the odds of bring scum higher, therefore no-one would actually do it.

I think this is really important.

Even if people didn't know Brick was going to tell us who discarded what, the village would have claimed their discarded roles anyway! We knew the discarded roles would be public so anyone not claiming a discarded role would immediately be suspicious anyway! And scum couldn't claim someone else's discarded role without getting into it with the person who actually discarded the role.

I think people are overlooking this point.

[Fenn]

Didn't know you had timezone issues Lewwyn, thought you were just lurking. Reason for dropping IC makes sense, and apparently it agrees with your meta.

I don't agree that if who discarded what wasn't revealed that the town would've been able to get everyone to claim their discarded roles, certainly not to the same level of reliability as Brick's list. Plus it would benefit scum to find out which town players had strong roles - and thus had probably chosen even stronger roles. Likely would have made those players less willing to claim.

Gazglum disappeared after the first couple dozen posts. Maybe just IRL conflict, but he didn't mention any.

No vote for now until I wake up tomorrow. Probably will vote for Qgqq or novice when lynching time comes, they're still the most suspicious for me.

[Jabbz]

Caught up for the time being. As with the other two day one games, there isn't a lot of definitive information going around yet. What does stand out to me however, is Qg.

It's happening!!!!

[Day one LYNCH! Day one LYNCH! Day one LYNCH!]

Lynchpocalypse is coming, my friends. It comes for us all in the end, but today? Today it comes for me.


Anyway, yeah I got town/town :/ Not that it matters, for today I get to help the scum in an entirely unique and fascinating way - by becoming the instant topic of the day for them to dump votes on

I'd...rather not share why I rejected roleblocker, specifically. But I will say this: in one of my most recent games (not on this site) I rolled a boosted-jailkeeper (they also got to neighborize the people they jailsd) and honestly it wasn't a role I enjoyed much. Not only was RB a repeat of that - in a game packed with roles - it was a weaker version, and it's one that has significant downsides (I've never been very good with difficult roles, day 1 in that game I jailed our only cop thinking they were scum). So yeah, I chose against it.

Bobchillingworth, you were offered a chance to repeat last game, why wouldn't you take it?

This excuse sounds just absolutely terrible to me. It cites some nebulous other site forum game, claims that more roles makes a role blocker weaker, and claims "oh I'm bad, so I didn't want an important role." I don't know Qg all that well, but this seems very off for him.

I think vanilla cop is a good role on this setup, as it helps you eliminate roles. Seems like we have a ton of rehected vanillas, though, so maybe I'm wrong there.

Fenns comment at the start about voting someone for their position in the list just felt really weak- justifying overmuch.

Dtays comment about lynching those who rejected power roles seems quite flawed, really - sure there might be some scum among them, but there's also likely to be the best town roles. I don't think we want to draw those into the open - certainly not this early.

@Fenn, 3 cops if we count the lover.

So let's just not lynch anyone? Right now, dropped roles is the only solid information we have to go on. Saying that it's odd to drop roleblocker, or doctor, and putting pressure and or pushing for a lynch, is completely reasonable at this point. I think you have rapidly reached the point where you need to out yourself like Novice, or face the Engineer Posse. We have the education to build a very effective gallows. Just saying.

Qgqqqqq

[Jkaen]

Ok caught up with all the posts, everybody has highlighted the obvious suspicious discards.

Novices claim of cop explains his, and can be tested over the next couple of days, if he doesn't prove it (or get ate by wolves) then we hang him.

Qg has no real decent explanation, and hasn't even made a claim yet, I am guessing because he can't think of a safe claim to make

Qgqqqqq

[zakalwe]

To be honest, with the fact that discards are known (and yes, I'm aware that some people apparently weren't aware that they were linked to the person who discarded them, and I believe that BRick announcing this in thread is a bit unfair to everyone who discarded a strong role, whether they understood the process correctly or not) ditching a strong town role is actually significantly more indicative of being an even stronger town role than anything else. Specifically because of the factor you suggested - pure numbers (and therefore first level thinking) puts the odds of bring scum higher, therefore no-one would actually do it.

I think this is really important.

It's a valid point. Psychologically, it would be most tempting to pick a mafia role if you're faced with a "weak town / strong mafia" choice. Q falls somewhere in the middle, though, because the town role that he discarded isn't super strong.

"He can't think of a safe claim to make" is kind of my impression, too.

[Rowain]

Qgqqqqq for one thing acts very strange. But scum Qgqqqqq is a different beast. IMO Qgq is very excited. For me that looks like either Godfather hoping to get scanned, Town-vig or SK.

The last one would explain why he has gathered votes that easily (currently 9 out of 19). He sure looks like a good place to vote for scum.