WW35: Not Another TPS Report [Game Thread]

[Jowy]

What do you suggest we do when we have a few hours left in the day and he finally claims? There might not be time to counterclaim him, and there's definitely no time to start another wagon and get someone else to claim before the deadline. So are we going to lynch someone else without getting a claim first? Maybe a random wagon in the last 5 minutes in old school RB style?

Well, having checked what time the day ends, I can say that I'll be claiming ~8 or more hours before the deadline if I do.

Thanks Q. For the record I've given up on trying to get people to claim, so do what you want.
I'm just explaining to Bob why I was trying to get claims done, since it's relevant to the discussion because he thinks it's anti-town and I'm scum for suggesting it.

[AdrienIer]

Jabbz's posts were bad, but Bob is looking worse IMO. I'm not talking about the discussion with Jowy about revealing (which takes up most of his posts), but about the initial choice to lynch Novice AFTER he claimed, the only one to do that. Did you just skim through the thread, saw that novice had a lot of votes against him and decided to join before realizing it was a mistake ? Novice's claim should be verifiable soon, he'll be on everyone's radar now. Qgqq you never mention except to defend him confirming his other site story and saying he should claim right before the deadline so no one can call his bluff.
You'd be right in your discussion with Jowy if this were a normal setup where we have no idea who is who, here though we know Q and Novice are likely to have an important role and if they're not wolfs they're likely targets on N1. By claiming they give important information to the town, information that the wolves already suspected anyway. The only reason why Q would want to keep his role secret is if he's doctor, he'd know that he's the only one in the game due to Novice and Ichabod dropping the other two, so he becomes unique and all-important.

[Ichabod]

Thinking about it, Vanilla Cop can be very powerful in this gametype - unlike regular Cop your potential targets are narrowed down to anybody who didn't discard a vanilla role, against whom a Vanilla result is just as incriminating as Guilty would be (more so even because of possible Godfather). Possibly Mattimeo didn't consider this when he discarded it or his other option was better in his eyes. Not a scum tell but not a town tell either I don't think.

Azarius ditched the vanilla cop, not Matt. What do you think of Azarius's explanation on this?

Whoops, that's my bad. Looking at Azarius's post #19 I think his reasoning makes sense, even if I don't agree with it. The idea that only a couple of the players at most would return vanilla and so it's not a good investigative role holds water. Begs the question of what role he got that was better. Vig/Doc/Cop? Still I get a town lean from it.

Fenn, when you wake up, do you think that there is anything suspicious about any of the players apart from the discarders, Novice/Q/Lewwyn, etc?

At the moment your Novice > Lewwyn > No Vote but will probably come back to Novice or Q reads a bit like a delaying tactic while you wait to see where the bandwagon is going to set up.

Dtay's setup posting gives the appearance of providing useful information without giving any that's actually new - the possibility of at least one person getting double power roles or double scum didn't need to be shown mathematically. His other posts don't provide much of help either. Post 110 drops some half-hearted criticism of Matt/Azarius/TT for their role drops, followed by what seems to me as some obvious minor reads. His Qgqq vote hits the same points that have already been made multiple times by this point.

Ichabod's post 207 saying he doesn't want to lynch novice unless he contradicts himself ('or something') is...a little off? I do agree that lynching Novice isn't our best option yet, the way novice has hardly been posting himself makes me think Ichabod knows novice won't contradict himself. I won't say that he doesn't have a point against me, I'm not 100% happy with my earlier posts myself; my reasoning for voting those people who had discarded was to pressure them into posting instead of lurking. Turned out that Lewwyn and TT just couldn't make it, but imo it's a worthwhile strategy to pursue D1 which is why I did it. Not a fan of Ichabod's partially backing out of it though with his 'I'm grumpy' joke either.

Don't like what Meiz has done lately, his accusation against Lewwyn is weak. Him describing Ichabod calling out Q's first post as insightful (twice, even) doesn't make sense.

As for my No Vote - at the time I didn't see reason to add another vote to the novice/Q piles that early in the Day and didn't have anybody I had a great desire to pressure, especially when I was about to go to sleep and wouldn't be able to respond to the person I was putting pressure on. Perhaps not optimal town play, but there you go.

Agreed with Matt's reasoning on Bob. But I wonder if Matt is trying to go against his 'lurker scum' reputation by being very active as opposed to his play in WW34.

I think that Jabbz is overall most scummy, the timing of his jumping on Q's first post doesn't agree with a town player scumhunting. Agreed with Zakalwe in this instance.

Man, this is so much wolfy it's almost howling at the moon.

A bunch of small cases on some people, and it seems all of it comes from my posts (not saying he does it because I'm awesome, but because I was the first one to throw suspicion at him, so he probably reread all my posts). Lets take a look at his cases (he was prodded to make them by a question, by the way):

*dtay (argument I used about non-content);

*me (where he half makes a case gainst me/half defends against my accusation [pretty scummy thing in itself, being more worried about defending when making a case] + he repeats Lewwyn's argument abot me backing off, but uses a different post as the origin);

*Meiz (posts about me + Lewwyn);

Then he defends himself again. Like I've said, defending while making an accusation post kind of shows a different set of priorities than one would expect from town.

Finally, I think that's a suspicion at bob, which is one easy to follow, considering bob may very well be voting to lynch the seer.

---

Anyway, he throws a vote against Jabbz on his next post, a person he didn't mention os his suspect post. This gives me the feel (gut feel argument, take it as you like it) that he's disconnected from his previous cases. A villager cares about and nurtures his cases, since they come from his own reasoning; a wolf quickly forgets about his cases, because they were fabricated in the first place.

Overall, very wolfy. I would change my vote to him, but I don't really want to lynch a new guy on day 1. Perhaps that's just his style, he could very well put his vote on Jabbz so he has a meaningful vote (maybe he thinks people won't follow if he makes a new case about someone)... I don't know, but lynching the new guy leaves a bad taste, especially when he's trying...

I also like my Qgqq vote, so i'll keep it there while I wait to see if people have the same feeling about Fenn. Frankly speaking, I want to hear Qg's claim. Otherwise I think I'll always find him very suspicious until the end. But thinking about it, I don't even know what Qg could claim that would make me not suspect him, his reaction only seems compatible with wolf or SK. And I always start doubting myself as soon as one of my suspects get near a lynch position... I'm a coward...

[Jabbz]

Ok. Caught up for the moment. Responses to my posting last night definitely had a different effect than I expected. I have about 2 hours before I have to bail for class, so I'll do my best to respond to everything leveled against me, but I'm not sure I'll get to new analysis until after I get back from class later this afternoon. Feel free to call out anything I missed and I'll do my best to answer, I did log into 6 pages of accusations :P

[Ichabod]

I have to say I'm roleplaying this game perfectly. My work productivity yesterday and today has nosedived dramatically.

[Gazglum]

I'm just catching up, but put me down as leaning towards the pro-claim basket.

Wolves can't talk at daytime, so I think it is reasonable to assume that some of them were caught out by the public role discards (as most of us were), and are now playing for time. After this lynch they get to discuss together, plan out their stories more. This is when they are most insecure, and with the least information.

I don't think everybody should claim at all, but what if, say, the people who threw away the 4 best town roles all claimed? Novice already has, after all, and claimed about the best role in the game. If he is town, then the scum already have a very big target to hunt. Plus any of those discardesr - Q, Mattimeo, Lewwyn, (maybe Ichabod, Twiinkletoes or Azarius) - who are not scum, have already announced themselves to the scum to be either serial killer or major town power role, because they threw away something pretty good.

In other words, I don't think scum gain that much from making all of those guys claim before lynch, and I think the town does gain more than we lose. If we were going to make them claim at all, then before Night 1 is best.

Will catch up on cases after dinner.

[Ichabod]

For people saying that bob's vote on novice was bad, I think that's in character. Bob likes being an independent and out-of-the-box thinker, in my opinion. And I think he has the balls to just call that claim by Novice, if he believes Novice is a wolf, even if that means losing the cop, if he's wrong.

[Qgqqqqq]

Reading the thread.

I don't like Fenn's posts. This whole strategy of probing someone that had a good town role discarded than backing off as soon as that person posted... I don't see a point in such a strategy, it's planned outside of what's happening in the thread (it ignores the actual content) and that's a wolf move in my opinion.

And comments like the one about Gazglum are just filler.

And I don't like the no vote too. Specially when combined with "I'll probably vote for X or Y later".

I don't like a lot of things. I'm grumpy!

I find Fenn's posts okay, tbh. I mean, clearly he isn't doing much good scumhunting, and he has been seizing on a bunch of meta-e and easy rides, but IMO he's been doing it in a way that works for someone who's just rolled town for the first time - seizing on the obvious stuff to talk about, and the stuff that other people have brought to prominence and giving his opinion on it. Sort of the way I played my first few games here - I get a very noob-town trying to help in the ways he can feel from his posts.

Agree on the no-vote though.

To clarify my thoughts about Qgqq and what I meant by crafted post. It's not that I think he opened a text manager and spent a long time tinkering with it. It just seem to me like he thought himself in a situation where he needed to make a good post so as to get suspicion off him. It seemed to me like a post he thought more than the usual about what strategy he'd use and how he could convey a certain feeling. And the italics and things like that seem to me like what you'd do when checking a post for a second/third time, which, at least in Qgqq's case, I think he'd only do when trying to make certain his post managed to achieve something (usually he seems to be a pretty "liberal" poster, if that makes sense - just posting whatever).

And the timing of the post makes my impression about this get stronger. It wasn't right at the beggining of the game, it was after Brick's announcement. That's purely guessing, but I think he found out about the roles revealed being tied to the player's name and started thinking about what to do, while spending some time to send a message to BRick about him being a bad man.

Lots of speculation, but that's my thought process.

Well, this is purely unprovable, but I certainly knew that the appropriate role discard would be posted like that before we even started the signup thread. I don't recall if Brick and I actually discussed it whilst we were talking about the setup, but I had definitely read it in one of the mafiascum links long before the game actually started.

As for something that is provable, if we are analysing the timing of my initial post, UTC 1700 is 6 am my time. I wasn't awake when the game started. I think it was like 80% of the way through page 1 (20 posts per page) when I started writing my initial post, and then I cross posted to wherever I was. Actually, I think I crossposted with the reveal - but like I said, that wasn't something that was in any way a surprise to me.

To the first bit. Ah to the premise, it wasn't what I was thinking you were meaning. You're probably right when you say I'm a "liberal poster" like that. However, things like formatting aren't things I add in - even when I do preview post (which is rare, and only when I have a bunch of posts quoted...like now ), I still type out every tag (this is why I get [strike] tags wrong, and occasionally color ones). They're things which I type out as I'm writing it. If we want to return to something unprovable, I definitely didn't do any kind of second pass at writing that post because, like I said, I was on my phone and, whilst I have hardly any complaints about it, scrolling back to a place in text you've written is something that it doesn't do well at all.

Again, I'm not sure where people are seeing the awesome strategy/great thought underlying the post. As I've said, it was just written on the fly, rising organically - which you can see in thinks like my talk about DLP going on longer than necessary.

No. He'd already be over the bad feeling of having to choose town again, because the choice was a couple of days before the actual game. So he wouldn't show that resignation on the thread. I think that, if he showed it on the thread, it probably just happened. And the only frustration I can see happening at the start of the game are the role reveals tied to players.

Okay. Honestly, after the signup thread I knew that I was going to be pushed early Day 1, and I was expecting it. I wasn't really frustrated - and certainly not surprised - at anything, so I suppose resignation works well. Whatever - I've given up trying to understand what tone I have in my thoughts.

But yeah, I had gotten over getting town/town. A good rant at BRick was enough to get it out of my system, really.

The combination of going for such an easy late wagon post - which you clearly read earlier, and felt no reason to jump on until after I'd already built up a sizable following - and the way you're so eagerly pressuring another claim is something I find very suspicious.

What do you mean by the bolded part?

Based on what comes after, I don't think I need to answer this (I don't really have time). Though Ichabod...could you try to delete extraneous bits of quotes you quote?


Cross posted with everything since my last.

[Qgqqqqq]

Jabbz's posts were bad, but Bob is looking worse IMO. I'm not talking about the discussion with Jowy about revealing (which takes up most of his posts), but about the initial choice to lynch Novice AFTER he claimed, the only one to do that. Did you just skim through the thread, saw that novice had a lot of votes against him and decided to join before realizing it was a mistake ? Novice's claim should be verifiable soon, he'll be on everyone's radar now. Qgqq you never mention except to defend him confirming his other site story and saying he should claim right before the deadline so no one can call his bluff.
You'd be right in your discussion with Jowy if this were a normal setup where we have no idea who is who, here though we know Q and Novice are likely to have an important role and if they're not wolfs they're likely targets on N1. By claiming they give important information to the town, information that the wolves already suspected anyway. The only reason why Q would want to keep his role secret is if he's doctor, he'd know that he's the only one in the game due to Novice and Ichabod dropping the other two, so he becomes unique and all-important.

And we give the scum more information that they can use. We have a maximum of two protective roles (IIRC Jailer and 1 Doctor?), thus we can't protect all or even most of the targets. That means that if all the roles are out in the open, scum have a pretty good offering to pick and choose who they want (and they might have a strongarm, too). That's a very different thing from these people have strong roles, choose how you want to approach them.

Besides, why would Doctor (even being the only one) make it the most precious role? If there had been 3 tourist roles discarded and one left in the game, that wouldn't make it any more valuable. Each role is valuable on its own merits, IMO.

Nice try fishing, though.

[Jabbz]

Caught up for the time being. As with the other two day one games, there isn't a lot of definitive information going around yet. What does stand out to me however, is Qg.

It's happening!!!!

[Day one LYNCH! Day one LYNCH! Day one LYNCH!]

Lynchpocalypse is coming, my friends. It comes for us all in the end, but today? Today it comes for me.


Anyway, yeah I got town/town :/ Not that it matters, for today I get to help the scum in an entirely unique and fascinating way - by becoming the instant topic of the day for them to dump votes on

I'd...rather not share why I rejected roleblocker, specifically. But I will say this: in one of my most recent games (not on this site) I rolled a boosted-jailkeeper (they also got to neighborize the people they jailsd) and honestly it wasn't a role I enjoyed much. Not only was RB a repeat of that - in a game packed with roles - it was a weaker version, and it's one that has significant downsides (I've never been very good with difficult roles, day 1 in that game I jailed our only cop thinking they were scum). So yeah, I chose against it.

Bobchillingworth, you were offered a chance to repeat last game, why wouldn't you take it?

This excuse sounds just absolutely terrible to me. It cites some nebulous other site forum game, claims that more roles makes a role blocker weaker, and claims "oh I'm bad, so I didn't want an important role." I don't know Qg all that well, but this seems very off for him.

I think vanilla cop is a good role on this setup, as it helps you eliminate roles. Seems like we have a ton of rehected vanillas, though, so maybe I'm wrong there.

Fenns comment at the start about voting someone for their position in the list just felt really weak- justifying overmuch.

Dtays comment about lynching those who rejected power roles seems quite flawed, really - sure there might be some scum among them, but there's also likely to be the best town roles. I don't think we want to draw those into the open - certainly not this early.

@Fenn, 3 cops if we count the lover.

So let's just not lynch anyone? Right now, dropped roles is the only solid information we have to go on. Saying that it's odd to drop roleblocker, or doctor, and putting pressure and or pushing for a lynch, is completely reasonable at this point. I think you have rapidly reached the point where you need to out yourself like Novice, or face the Engineer Posse. We have the education to build a very effective gallows. Just saying.

Qgqqqqq

So first, a couple of observations on my initial posting here that claims Qg. Yes, I understand that Qg made that post right at the beginning. However, the first time I read it I didn't think much of the role itself. If you note, (and a number of you did) it did not make it into my list of role drops that I found suspicious. What caught my attention instead was Novice, and the other roles I found to be powerful. After reading other peoples posts, and taking into account how powerful it would be in a game where almost everyone has a role (I would imagine not many people took non power roles, unless they couldn't avoid it). So I did what any open minded person should do, I looked at new information, and since I found it persuasive, altered my views on it.

On the "Nebulous other site." Until you posted said other site, it was nebulous. You pointing to it after the fact doesn't change my perception of its value when you posted it. It might provide some exoneration after the fact, but it is not in and of itself indicative of my scumminess.

On the "weaker role" I read you as saying that the RB here is weaker than the RBesque role you had on the other site. That being your justification for not wanting it is like turning down a 1s vig because you played a MS vig before and the 1s is so much less powerful.

On the "lets not lynch anyone. Ok that might have been over the top, I'll give you that. TBH reading it this morning, I'm not sure where exactly I was going with that last night. In my defense, I was posting right before bed after a long day. I do stand by the rest of my post however.

Just because I vote along with other people (a third of the participants I might add) is not in and of itself indicative of me doing it only because I'm following the train. First of all, the odds of a train starting this early on the first day, and resulting in a lynch is absurdly low. It is far more about placing pressure on you to respond, which it did. When people get enough out of your response, they will then move onto other people and arguments, or in the case of Novice and his cop claim, simply hold judgement in abeyance until more information comes to light.

That being said, I'm going to reread all the posts I skimmed this morning, and see where else I need to place arguments. By all means, let me know if this is insufficient.