WW35: Not Another TPS Report [Game Thread]

[Mattimeo]

But Mattimeos surprise made me lean 'not scum' on him. So together with absolutely no support to lynch him I decided to move my vote.

Not that informing people why town leans on me are unreliable is in any way sound play, but you do realise that I'd've made an almost identical post if I was aware of the restriction, right?

[dtay]

Ichabod & Mattimeo - Their proposals that someone rejecting a strong village role is more likely to demonstrate that they took a more powerful village role seems contrary to the odds in my opinion.

Yes. That's the entire fucking point. You're going to get so much flak from ditching a stong town role that it's basically suicide to do so. Thus, if you have any choice in the matter (say, your other role was scum, rather than also strong town) you'd ditch the scum in a heartbeat just so that you're not near the top of the suspicion list every single damn day.

Numerical odds mean jack shit when you're making informed decisions based on how other people are going to respond.

I do think that at least one of Novice, Mattimeo, Lewwyn, Novice and Q are likely to be scum based on their throwaways. Novice most likely, but I think he has bought himself a day.

And yet, no-one seems to bring up that Meiz, Jabbz, Jowy and dtay are actually just as likely, if not more so, to be scum based on their ditch.

And much safer, too, given the options with them are 'random role or scum' rather than 'strong role or scum'. We'd lose less from a mislynch.

Despite me being the one mentioning all the numbers, I pretty much agree with this post by Matt. The first point is super important, that all these numbers are assuming role rejection is random (except for that strong town always beats weak town). It obviously isn't. The math is good at making sure people are being internally consistent, not good at providing independent answers.

I would add the caveat the strong role rejecters were still the ideal day 1 initial targets, since they have clear pressure points to ask about and try to catch with bad responses to role claims they won't be able to live up to. And I think that's roughly what happened.

I would also add the additional caveat that the scum may not have been aware their rejection would be revealed, so this arg does hold less weight given Brick's announcement. (I think Matt acknowledged this in some past post).

[Jabbz]

Jabbz, when you have the time I'd like to hear some of your thoughts on people that aren't wagoning or omgus.

Just got home, working on that, alphabetically. By the by, what the hell does omgus mean?

[Mattimeo]

Just got home, working on that, alphabetically. By the by, what the hell does omgus mean?

Oh My God, You Suck (for voting me)

bBasically, using the fact that someone voted for you as the primary reasoning for returning a vote on them.

[Fenn]

There's no way to play this game in a "fair" way, because it's based on deception. But anything I say shouldn't be taken in a personal level and should stay only inside the game. Sometimes I like to use a bit of funny (at least I think it is) rhetoric, but it's never meant to offend. I don't want to make anyone feel bad, but it's really tough to play this game without stepping on somebody's toe, someway or the other.

I say this because I could see that post of mine getting to someone's nerves.

I understand completely, no offense taken. It's just the nature of the game sometimes.

[Ichabod]

There has been considerable early traction on Qgqqqqq and then (naturally) people started getting cold feet and wanting to consider options in case its an easy set-up and he's being made to be a fallguy.

My gut instinct is that we were right with Qgqqqqq based on just how messy it has got since that point. I get that we need to consider other options and that it is day one, but this feels *too* messy that it is being actively encouraged by scum. I get this feeling a lot when I play werewolf and having been forced to stand back from the discussion and frequently 'catch up' with multiple pages of responses makes me feel more confident in my ability to notice shifts in the 'mood' of the day.

I cannot get over the rejection of being a role blocker, and the fact that the mafia cannot communicate during the day leads me to believe that he was scrambling around for an excuse however he could find it to cover his tracks. I can't explain it much better than it *feels* wrong.

Noone else has stood out far enough for me on my current read through to make me want to vote for them. I originally liked Jowy, then he's started moving targets around quite quickly and that made me more concerned. Novice is too much of a risk for me to take early on, but I'd be interested to revisit his status on the next day.

For now at least, while I have time to reread and see if my feelings change, I'm placing my vote on Qgqqqq

I think you are right, about this, TT. The bolded part is pretty interesting.

I'll change back to Qgqq. I find it strange that people didn't see the same things I've seen about Fenn's post. Anyway, I feel better about not lynching a new guy.

That being said, I keep suspecting the other new guy, dtay. List posts are also scummy, dtay. You are making all the mistakes! Humor aside, his big list post was a lot of meta talk again.

---

That being said, the day seems pretty quiet. Not a lot of cases, some people pretty unusually silent... Holy! Zak has the most posts in the game? I thought he was one of the silent ones...

About that, why do you think the game is messy, TT? I feel this is a pretty "well behaved" game so far. I'm used to 500 posts on day 1 games.

And since I'm interested in that bolded comment above, about the perception of someone that usually catches up on posts/reading the shifts in the mood of the day: what do you think a quiet village means, that we are voting for a mislynch? You don't seem to agree with my take that the village is quiet, but I'm interested to hear your thoughts about it.

[dtay]

That being said, I keep suspecting the other new guy, dtay. List posts are also scummy, dtay. You are making all the mistakes! Humor aside, his big list post was a lot of meta talk again.

Meh, it was 1/5 meta. Or 1/3 if you discount the insignificant last two comments.

List posts are scummy because... organized thoughts help you not contradict yourself so function as a wolf aid? As opposed to rambling.

At this point I think it's going to take something very meaningful happening for me to not want to lynch Qqqqqqqqq, which maybe could happen at role reveal, but I really think he's delaying to avoid being counter-claimed. Day 2 fallout of what Qqqqqq flips at then gives context to Jabbbz in particular, and really everyone given how much talking there's been over Qqqqqq. Also on day 2 novice (if not dead) has to clear/incriminate someone.

[Bobchillingworth]

Holy! Zak has the most posts in the game? I thought he was one of the silent ones...

That's because he made several sentence-long posts in a row.

[Jabbz]

So. Forty plus minutes of trying to parse through this mess has left me with the opinion that I don't read nearly as much into everyone's statement as some of you guys do. I guess I'm just looking for direct contradiction, or poorly constructed logical arguments, and day one doesn't seem to present too many of those.

I am still not overly convinced of TT's argument as to why he dropped the Hider role. The fact that it's his first day back could be used to justify any number of choices/discards, and as such doesn't seem to have a lot of merit. It certainly isn't enough for me to want to vote for him at this point, but it does strike me as suspicious.

I get pretty good vibes from Zak's analysis as a whole. He is active, he is posing a lot of questions, and as someone said earlier, he seems genuinely interested in finding the scum.

Az seems to be getting a bit of a pass here, once the "misunderstanding" about what his role actually entailed. I'm not saying I lean either way on him yet, it is just worth noting that it is occurring.

The reads on a couple of other people partially depend on where I end up falling on the "claiming is good for town" spectrum. I am leaning a bit towards it being useful for those who discarded top roles to claim, as they are likely already targets by scum for doing so, unless they are themselves scum. I'm still stuck a bit though, because as scum knows more power roles, they can plan/plot more effectively. So it's a bit of a tossup.

As for myself, I've reached the understanding that no matter what I do, I appear scummy. My first game, I was told I was "scummy as fuck", which is appropriate as I was actually scum that game. My second game I was also told I was scummy as fuck, which was disappointing, because I was trying to play the first day or two as pure town, and not start working towards town destruction until I had more info. I was trying to balance that with looking really defensive, in hopes of being scanned clean, so that might have screwed it up. This game, I'm 100% town, and trying to find scum, and still looking scummy :/ I guess that's something I'll have to work on.

That being said, I still think Qg looks scummy, and my vote is going to stay there for the time being. It seems that he has agreed to claim if time gets close and he is up for the devilishly designed torture machine that a group of talented engineers can produce with paperclips, rubber bands, and the spare mop in the closet, so that might be where we find out more.

[Ichabod]

List posts are scummy because... organized thoughts help you not contradict yourself so function as a wolf aid? As opposed to rambling.

List posts being scummy is just a joke I made based on history of WW games here. For some time, the most effective wolf strategy was to make big wall of text posts, usually a list, with a lot of meaningless content. It felt out of favor when the "list/wall of text posts are scummy" rule started to be applied. But it's long in the past now.

In this case, I was mostly messing with my previous comment about meta posts being wolfy and the reaction you had to it. Just a joke!