WW35: Not Another TPS Report [Game Thread]

[Azarius]

Meiz, I'm not sure I'd go so far as to say those 6 are for sure town. Definetely town points for your early novice voters. I'd add bob to that list as well, he voted for novice in his first post, which came after novice's claim. I don't think a scum would do that. With no talking during the day, I find it more likely that they would try to sit back and hope the claim brought focus elsewhere rather than put a vote on him. Actually, strongest town lean out of that on bob for me.

Actually, I think Bob's voting pattern is suspicious. IIRC, he was the only one who kept voting for Novice throughout the day, even though Novice had claimed cop and it was day one. That's not very sound play, on the face of it, and it raises the question of where he got his conviction from. On the other hand, he was also the only one who really made a show of weighing the various cross-claims against each other at the end of the day. While most other players seemed to realize intuitively who the most likely liar was.

I don't read his tone as scummy, but I think his play looks a little like scum angling for towncred.

I also think Jkaen deserves some heat for chickening out with a "let's leave all cops alive" stance after a rather inactive day. He's usually no fan of Novice, either.

Lewwyn looked like frantic scum when he finally made an appearance. Agree with Meiz that the counterattack on him (and me?) was unconvincing.

I'll want to reevaluate Jabbz but I still think it's quite possible that he's scum.

Lewwyn did look sort of like he was trying to ride to the rescue with a last minute wagon elsewhere.

Would bob really go for the bus from the beginning of the day? At that point I wouldn't say novice's position was unrecoverable. If there hadn't been two other cop claims for instance, it's likely he could have survived the day. I don't think bob is afraid to go for a high risk high reward big play, but without being able to discuss it amongst themselves it just seems unlikely to me that scum would just go straight for a bus if it's avoidable.

[Azarius]

Ichabod, did your love for Calvin and Hobbes make it harder or easier to vote for Fenn?

[Molach]

59% chance of both cop roles being in play

...this could also be the % of having two SKs if I'm not mistaken, assuming any SK would be kept.
(Binomdist, 0 successes out of 14 tries with probability 2/54)

[Twinkletoes89]

59% chance of both cop roles being in play

...this could also be the % of having two SKs if I'm not mistaken, assuming any SK would be kept.
(Binomdist, 0 successes out of 14 tries with probability 2/54)

There's also a good possibility of one or two Vigilantes too I imagine. Hopefully they are careful with their shots if we do have two SKs on the loose :/

[Ichabod]

Ichabod, did your love for Calvin and Hobbes make it harder or easier to vote for Fenn?

It's a null tell. He could be WereCalvin:




But he could also be one of the good guys!

[zakalwe]

Would bob really go for the bus from the beginning of the day? At that point I wouldn't say novice's position was unrecoverable. If there hadn't been two other cop claims for instance, it's likely he could have survived the day. I don't think bob is afraid to go for a high risk high reward big play, but without being able to discuss it amongst themselves it just seems unlikely to me that scum would just go straight for a bus if it's avoidable.

The point is to have some insurance. If Novice's cop claim had remained unchallenged, there is no way we would have lynched him. So "busing" him in that case would be completely safe. But if the claim did backfire, Bob would at least gain towncred for being his most stubborn attacker. Or so the theory goes. In reality, that's a very common scum play and not so hard to see through. So it would be slightly noobish scum play by Bob, IMO. But it's also hard to see how his push to lynch Novice *after* his cop claim could be genuine town play.

[Rowain]

Rowain bears watching. ... but I just want to note that he is sneaky.

Sneaky? Sneaky? Did you hear what that fat little hobbit squirrel called us precious

[zakalwe]

By the way. If you think about it, Novice's gambit wasn't actually so risky, at least not on day one. Pretty much the only way he gets exposed is if there are two real cops *and* we happen to force one of them to claim.

[Fenn]

You're a man after my own heart Ichabod ...But when you're in the sleuthing business, anybody could be more than they seem.

I find it hard to believe that Bob is a scum bussing novice, either for day 1 or laying the ground for a later day. I can't imagine that novice planned to get lynched day 1 - and Mafia Governor, even 1-shot, seems too powerful a role to willingly throw away so soon. Losing a team mate with a very strong role wouldn't be worth an uncertain amount of town cred, imo.

[zakalwe]

Again... The only scenario where Novice hangs is if his claim is busted, and then he almost certainly hangs both with or without Bob's vote.