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I think its a vig shot. Sk shooting mafia at this point is imo bad strategy. Lew was scummy, and we know it was intentional now.
Anyway no need to claim...sk might have held off shooting. Sk might even have doubled up on matt to help keep townkillers in the game. Doesnt matter what happened, I see no need for a claim as we cant be sure of sk/no sk
(January 31st, 2015, 13:14)Ichabod Wrote: Awesome night! If Lewwyn was scanned not guilty, we'd be on a world of hurt. Nice!
Very well played, Matt!
Here's a proposition: whoever killed Lewwyn is either a vig or a SK (is there any other role that could do it). So, if a vig/villager did it, please, claim it. You already got a mafia, so your job is done. This way, if no one claims, we know there's a SK.
Yeah, meta meta, but I think it's good play with no downside for the village.
Why do you say there's no downside for the village ? I'm not so sure of that, we can't be sure to find the next scum soon so a vig will help us. It would be annoying to lose both cops and vig by N3.
Well, I think a vig got mission accomplished after getting one scum. It's mainly because, if no one claims, we can know there's a SK running around. But I guess it's a moot point if everyone isn't willing to go along with it.
(January 31st, 2015, 13:14)Ichabod Wrote: Here's a proposition: whoever killed Lewwyn is either a vig or a SK (is there any other role that could do it). So, if a vig/villager did it, please, claim it. You already got a mafia, so your job is done. This way, if no one claims, we know there's a SK.
Yeah, meta meta, but I think it's good play with no downside for the village.
I think that's a great idea. But let's leave this for the shooter to decide.
I'm also going to put down a premilinary vote on Jkaen. There's not much to point at, since I think his day 1 was pretty lackluster. And I actually suspect he spent his time attacking towns (Q, Jowy, Rowain, Jabbz). I didn't especially like his attack on Jowy, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid518122
I know that's a bad argument to make without knowing the roles as a fact, but that's the feeling I have at the moment.
That puts us in a pretty nice position actually. It's sad to lose Matt, but I feel pretty comfortable that a Matt for GF + 1SGov is a pretty good tradeoff. Assuming Qg is actually town, it's a VERY good tradeoff.
(January 31st, 2015, 12:43)Gazglum Wrote: Twinkletoes, this reads to me like you trying to sway the vote off Novice just before all hope was lost:
I agree. If they could have persuaded those two to vote for me, I would have been gone, and novice would have been saved for the night, claimed a scan against one of the other cops or a fake one against wolf to give cred when he died, and changed the conversation a great deal the next day.
For the rest of this, you guys can agree or not with my logic. I'm operating under the assumption that I'm town. Some of you don't agree with that, and that's cool. At least be willing to look at what I say, even if you find the base premise to be false.
Behind the spoiler is all the vote counts so far, pruned a bit to only show me, Qg, in one instance Mattimeo because he had a few votes, and Scum. It's just to provide quick reference in case you want to check my arguments here.
On me: I certainly don't count every vote against me as scummy. I understand I appear pretty scummy this game. I specifically don't count Qg's votes against me as scummy, because I'm pretty sure a decent portion of that vote is based on omgus. After picking up 3 votes, putting me near Qg's 6, by post 291 I pick up Novice, Rowain, and Fenn. Rowaine leaves to be replace by Ichabod, with Rowain moving onto Lewwyn putting him at 4. I then Lose Ichabod to Lewwyn @372. By 396 The whole Novice keg breaks open. Zak leaves for novice.
Then at 411 I pick up TT. Which is really odd, as it's now important for the wolves to try to outvote the novice run. By 430 I've replace Fenn, who went on to vote Novice, and replace him with Jkaen. At this point though, without looking at WHEN exactly Jkaen made his move, I can't say for sure whether or not it was moving to try to tip the numbers, or if he realized that Novice was toast no matter what, and let him fry, and voted for me either because he was setting up a day 2 case, or didn't want to be associated with the Novice vote (which means to me he was more likely town trying to avoid looking like a wagoner.)
During all that time, Meiz Gazglum and Rowain stay on Lewwyn, up until the very last count at 443, where only Meiz is still there.
On the Lewwyn vote, Meiz and Jowy start it up by 228. Gazglum is added at 291, Rowain @ 347, then AdrienIer and Ichabod at 372. Then the Novice thing hits and things change. Whether you believe I'm scum or not, this gives very solid town leans to AdrienIer, Ichabod, and Rowain, as they push the vote equal to me. If I'm scum, and Lew is scum, I almost certainly can't be worth more than a GF, so they would bus me not him. If I'm town, they would never push their GF to his death over a townie.
I'm not sure what I can get out of the Qg votes. I'm inclined atm to think that Qg is town. If he was scum, I can't see him claiming cop when he KNOWS Novice is not a cop. The odds of their being at least 2 real cops is too high to risk that. Lewwyn joined the Qg train sometime between post 105 (5 votes) and 126 (9 votes) He picked up TT (whom I'm leaning to as scum) beween 228 and 291(still 6 votes, but with Lewwyn's case rising, and IIRC me in the lead due to dropping Azarius and adding TT.
347 TT drops off Qg for I believe a no vote, and pops back on for 372. Him dropping off Qg at this point could make sense if Qg was scum, but at this point I'm in the lead already, so Qg is at less risk. If Qg was scum, and TT wanted to influence the vote, he would simply vote for me at that point and tip the balance assuming I'm town, or assuming I'm scum, he would stay on Qg in order to try to keep me protected. If we're both town, one of us is going to hang at this point, so he doesn't care.
TT stays on Qg until 411, when he jumps to me to head off the novice lynch, as I mentioned above, and he stays there for the remainder.
All in all, I think that makes Qg look pretty town, and implicates TT at the very least. Lewwyn as we know was scum, so his presence is explainable throughout. Adriener was the only other person to stay on Qg for the entire time until the Lewwyn keg opened.
Given that Qg and I occupied a large portino of the early discussion, up until around post 300ish when the Lewwyn train got going, and then 396 when the Novice train got on its track, I think this covers most of the information that can be gleaned from day 1. As I said, I get strong town vibes from AdrienIer, Ichabod, Rowain, and Qg. I get a REALLY strong Scum vibe from Twinkletoes89. I'll probably reread my post again after I eat breakfast and get some shit done around the house. Hopefully it still makes sense, and maybe I can look through the votes again to see if I can find some more scummy tells.
Vote Counts
(January 28th, 2015, 21:34)BRickAstley Wrote: Tally as of post 105:
I'll have some real thoughts up after a reread. Either we have no doctors or the Mafia has a strongman, because Mattimeo was so towny he'd be a prime choice for a doctor.
Surprised only two died in a game with up to five night-killing roles (Mafia, 2 SKs, Vig, 1-Shot Vig). Guess they're holding back because we almost certainly have at least one Serial Killer running around.
(January 31st, 2015, 13:00)Twinkletoes89 Wrote: @Gazglum I am no sycophant.
I'm always going to be reluctant to risk mislynching a power role early on. It's too much of a gamble that could backfire horribly. I'm glad it didn't this time, but I'm happy with my reasons for voting as I did given the information at the time.
Did you think Jabbz was the best lynch available? The only reason you gave was 'see what Jowy said'. What about lewwyn?
What do you think of Jabbz now?
At the time of the quote you mentioned, it was a two horse race with only Lewwyn above a single vote. I moved on to Jabbz as I didn't want to risk losing a powerful village role.
I had my suspicions of LLewwyn, as I previously stated, but too many people were reticent to vote for him due to his time zone troubles.
I'm not sure about Jabbz, I think it's unlikely that there were three scum up for vote but that's too much conjecture to clear him him. I'll place him on my watch list with Qgqqqqq, who I still suspect, and see what today brings.
I disagree that tonight was a Vig kill. I don't think a Vig would take such an early risk, whereas a SK would be looking to kill every night, especially early on. But maybe that's just my conservatism and other village players would take Vig risks early on.
"You want to take my city of Troll%ng? Go ahead and try."
Related: Ichabod, I think keeping the vig's identity unknown to scum is worth more than confirming the existence of an SK. We don't gain much by going from 95% certainty to 99% of an SK. Besides I think there's plenty more a vigilante could accomplish in this game, it's only D2.
This is a particularly good result because I scanned Lewwyn last night...
@Zak, honestly, I don't have an impression of Meiz. The main thing I remember off all his posts was the end of day discussion about novice voters...so I'm going to need to reread him. Probably null atm?
That's a very good post by Jabbz. Hum. Jkaen - if you look at the timing of his vote, it comes right after Lewwyn does his distracting vote on Meiz, and right before he corrected himself onto novice. With a no dautalking scum, I can see him reading it as needing to distract the momentum from the lynch.
Erebus in the Balance - a FFH Modmod based around balancing and polishing FFH for streamlined competitive play.
![[Image: Easy%20Case.jpg?dl=0]](https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/s/t9oajh7t6mv3teg/Easy%20Case.jpg?dl=0)
and Lewwyn 