TT: "Multiple people had expressed resistance to lynching Lewwyn due to timezone issues forbidding him the chance to defend himself."
To save people time looking through posts, I remember being one of these.
(January 30th, 2015, 09:04)Molach Wrote: What Ichabod said.
Im getting suspicious about Lewwyn, but lymch without any defence is harsh, so a bit reluctant. A bit.
I'm still voting Jabbz over a claimed cop today.
Refusing to vote both two bad guys here.
I haven't been available for a serious post tonight, saturday night fever, kept somewhat updated via phone. Jabbz alignment still unknown, but up to neutral for me with novice's vote.
Lewwyn didnt mention Jabbz at all in his 20 posts. Even when he came back to the thread a couple hours before lynch with post #409 .
This is an interesting post. He has read the thread, knows he was in the lead, he knows Q has claimed but apparently missed Matt's claim (a good while before this post). He don't know which to lynch of novice or Q, maybe novice (however there could be 2 cops in the setup). He votes for Meiz. No mention of Jabbz, even though he is might be Lewwyn's best bet of avoiding lynch. Could be coincidence, could be planning to ninja-vote Jabbz for preservation near lynchtime, or could be wanting someone else to hang.
I see a lot of people vote TT now, must save that for tomorrow, but as seen he did have a point about people not wanting to lynch Lewwyn without him being around, since he had a better (or more active) role than innocent child if he were a villager.
(January 31st, 2015, 14:55)Jkaen Wrote: Just caught up before I go to bed, I see jowy has jumped on me for no reason, no real shocker there. Will hit up the real cases on me tomorrow when I get up
Zero interest in accusing anyone. And no defense either, for that matter. So why even make a post?
Jkaen really needs to step it up if we are to have any hope of reading him.
(January 31st, 2015, 18:37)Twinkletoes89 Wrote: I don't see how my voting patterns are so suspicious though?
I made pretty much an entire post about this TT. You either didn't read it, or you are trying to avoid addressing it. Seeing as how you play a pretty major role in the conclusions, maybe you aught to read/reread it. Here it is for your convenience.
(January 31st, 2015, 13:57)Jabbz Wrote: That puts us in a pretty nice position actually. It's sad to lose Matt, but I feel pretty comfortable that a Matt for GF + 1SGov is a pretty good tradeoff. Assuming Qg is actually town, it's a VERY good tradeoff.
(January 31st, 2015, 12:43)Gazglum Wrote: Twinkletoes, this reads to me like you trying to sway the vote off Novice just before all hope was lost:
I agree. If they could have persuaded those two to vote for me, I would have been gone, and novice would have been saved for the night, claimed a scan against one of the other cops or a fake one against wolf to give cred when he died, and changed the conversation a great deal the next day.
For the rest of this, you guys can agree or not with my logic. I'm operating under the assumption that I'm town. Some of you don't agree with that, and that's cool. At least be willing to look at what I say, even if you find the base premise to be false.
Behind the spoiler is all the vote counts so far, pruned a bit to only show me, Qg, in one instance Mattimeo because he had a few votes, and Scum. It's just to provide quick reference in case you want to check my arguments here.
On me: I certainly don't count every vote against me as scummy. I understand I appear pretty scummy this game. I specifically don't count Qg's votes against me as scummy, because I'm pretty sure a decent portion of that vote is based on omgus. After picking up 3 votes, putting me near Qg's 6, by post 291 I pick up Novice, Rowain, and Fenn. Rowaine leaves to be replace by Ichabod, with Rowain moving onto Lewwyn putting him at 4. I then Lose Ichabod to Lewwyn @372. By 396 The whole Novice keg breaks open. Zak leaves for novice.
Then at 411 I pick up TT. Which is really odd, as it's now important for the wolves to try to outvote the novice run. By 430 I've replace Fenn, who went on to vote Novice, and replace him with Jkaen. At this point though, without looking at WHEN exactly Jkaen made his move, I can't say for sure whether or not it was moving to try to tip the numbers, or if he realized that Novice was toast no matter what, and let him fry, and voted for me either because he was setting up a day 2 case, or didn't want to be associated with the Novice vote (which means to me he was more likely town trying to avoid looking like a wagoner.)
During all that time, Meiz Gazglum and Rowain stay on Lewwyn, up until the very last count at 443, where only Meiz is still there.
On the Lewwyn vote, Meiz and Jowy start it up by 228. Gazglum is added at 291, Rowain @ 347, then AdrienIer and Ichabod at 372. Then the Novice thing hits and things change. Whether you believe I'm scum or not, this gives very solid town leans to AdrienIer, Ichabod, and Rowain, as they push the vote equal to me. If I'm scum, and Lew is scum, I almost certainly can't be worth more than a GF, so they would bus me not him. If I'm town, they would never push their GF to his death over a townie.
I'm not sure what I can get out of the Qg votes. I'm inclined atm to think that Qg is town. If he was scum, I can't see him claiming cop when he KNOWS Novice is not a cop. The odds of their being at least 2 real cops is too high to risk that. Lewwyn joined the Qg train sometime between post 105 (5 votes) and 126 (9 votes) He picked up TT (whom I'm leaning to as scum) beween 228 and 291(still 6 votes, but with Lewwyn's case rising, and IIRC me in the lead due to dropping Azarius and adding TT.
347 TT drops off Qg for I believe a no vote, and pops back on for 372. Him dropping off Qg at this point could make sense if Qg was scum, but at this point I'm in the lead already, so Qg is at less risk. If Qg was scum, and TT wanted to influence the vote, he would simply vote for me at that point and tip the balance assuming I'm town, or assuming I'm scum, he would stay on Qg in order to try to keep me protected. If we're both town, one of us is going to hang at this point, so he doesn't care.
TT stays on Qg until 411, when he jumps to me to head off the novice lynch, as I mentioned above, and he stays there for the remainder.
All in all, I think that makes Qg look pretty town, and implicates TT at the very least. Lewwyn as we know was scum, so his presence is explainable throughout. Adriener was the only other person to stay on Qg for the entire time until the Lewwyn keg opened.
Given that Qg and I occupied a large portino of the early discussion, up until around post 300ish when the Lewwyn train got going, and then 396 when the Novice train got on its track, I think this covers most of the information that can be gleaned from day 1. As I said, I get strong town vibes from AdrienIer, Ichabod, Rowain, and Qg. I get a REALLY strong Scum vibe from Twinkletoes89. I'll probably reread my post again after I eat breakfast and get some shit done around the house. Hopefully it still makes sense, and maybe I can look through the votes again to see if I can find some more scummy tells.
Vote Counts
(January 28th, 2015, 21:34)BRickAstley Wrote: Tally as of post 105:
Jabbz, if you read the rest of the post that you quoted, you will see my explanation for my voting choices along with why I do not see why you can call them as suspicious as you do.
I have explained myself, please refrain from insinuating that I have somehow ignored you.
If there are further questions you want me to answer, ask them outright instead of expecting me to divine them from that remarkably long quote.
"You want to take my city of Troll%ng? Go ahead and try."
(January 31st, 2015, 19:44)Molach Wrote: TT: "Multiple people had expressed resistance to lynching Lewwyn due to timezone issues forbidding him the chance to defend himself."
To save people time looking through posts, I remember being one of these.
Refusing to vote both two bad guys here.
I haven't been available for a serious post tonight, saturday night fever, kept somewhat updated via phone. Jabbz alignment still unknown, but up to neutral for me with novice's vote.
Lewwyn didnt mention Jabbz at all in his 20 posts. Even when he came back to the thread a couple hours before lynch with post #409 .
This is an interesting post. He has read the thread, knows he was in the lead, he knows Q has claimed but apparently missed Matt's claim (a good while before this post). He don't know which to lynch of novice or Q, maybe novice (however there could be 2 cops in the setup). He votes for Meiz. No mention of Jabbz, even though he is might be Lewwyn's best bet of avoiding lynch. Could be coincidence, could be planning to ninja-vote Jabbz for preservation near lynchtime, or could be wanting someone else to hang.
I see a lot of people vote TT now, must save that for tomorrow, but as seen he did have a point about people not wanting to lynch Lewwyn without him being around, since he had a better (or more active) role than innocent child if he were a villager.
From how I read this Molach, you seem to be implying it's strange that Lewwyn didn't vote for me here. This is my take on Lewwyn's voting:
#409 is omgus and doesn't matter anymore. Between #411 and #430 a switch to me would have only put us equal, but Novice reached six first, so he would still be in swing position. At #419 I think he realized Novice was screwed, and did his best to attempt to get some town cred, which is odd, given that he had apparently been trying for a scan up to that point. I'm not sure I understand the Meiz vote in any sense. If someone else has a read on that it would be great.
(January 31st, 2015, 21:45)Twinkletoes89 Wrote: Jabbz, if you read the rest of the post that you quoted, you will see my explanation for my voting choices along with why I do not see why you can call them as suspicious as you do.
I have explained myself, please refrain from insinuating that I have somehow ignored you.
If there are further questions you want me to answer, ask them outright instead of expecting me to divine them from that remarkably long quote.
Maybe I misread your post. I'm out the door now, but when I get back I'll go through it again and compare.
(January 31st, 2015, 14:55)Jkaen Wrote: Just caught up before I go to bed, I see jowy has jumped on me for no reason, no real shocker there. Will hit up the real cases on me tomorrow when I get up
Ah, you expected to be in trouble today? Can't blame ya, ignoring both wagons on confirmed scum yesterday makes you look pretty bad today. There wasn't much hunting or meaningful interaction either.
Could you please explain your vote on Jabbz yesterday? Just asking since it was your only vote that mattered but there was no explanation for it included.
No didn't expect to be in trouble. Did expect your vote with no reasoning behind it though.
Can't blame ya, ignoring both wagons on confirmed scum yesterday makes you look pretty bad today. There wasn't much hunting or meaningful interaction either.