WW35: Not Another TPS Report [Game Thread]

[Jkaen]

Ok, looking through Dtay now, discarding his meta posts (so 90% of what he has written) I agree they are an easy way to hide, but I will give benefit and say its an easy way for a new player to ease themselves in.

Talks most of the day about lynching those who discarded good roles all else being equal.

Brick's announcement puts further suspicion on those who rejected the good town roles, since it's possible they would have thought their rejection would remain a secret (and thus not worry about being lynched day 1 for rejecting the role).

Reasonable point, if fairly general and non targeted

This one doesn't really make a difference though, since I think we should go after the power-role rejectors anyway. All the announcement does is potentially provide an explanation for why fear of day-1-lynch wouldn't stop people from rejecting powerroles, so slight increase of suspicion on the people I already think we should be suspicious of.

Sooo, next up... Novice?

Still on the power role rejectors but seems to skip from Qq to Novice for no real reason.

Novices response seems basically a (the only?) town one imo. He'd probably say the same if he's mafia, so he still has a decent background probability of being scum, but has not further incriminated himself in any way in my eyes.

I'm like delaying that lynch, either he gets nightkilled soon (if we have no protection) or provides enough somehow-verified clears or buses that we believe the role.

Is it an insane possibility to consider lynching a claimed cop 3-4 turns after they claim just to see if we can believe the investigations they announced over that period?

Anyway, now to Lewwyn

Supports the let cops prove themselves argument, which is fine, then jumps again fairly randomly onto Lewwyn.

Satisfied with Lewynn's answer (coupled with people earlier vouching for accuracy of record, obviously I don't know that).

Vote
Qqqqqqqqq

So going back to previous "most likely to be scum" vote.

It's not really that I find dropping roleblocker inexplicable, it's a good role but not as weird to drop as a doctor, but I found most of Qqqqqqq's responses to the initial pressure pretty scummy. Short version of case is a couple arguments struck me as unconvincing enough that they would probably only be made by people reaching for anything to defend themselves, tone wise the initial 2-3 responses especially felt defensive, and Qqqqq has a stated desire to pick mafia.

Remaining Meta Suspicions: Of remaining players I think Azarius, TT, and Matt (as well obviously the previously voted for Lew and Novice) are worth watching since they discard kind-of-good to good town roles, giving them slightly higher odds of being scum, but not to a large extent or anything.

Other minor reads
a) Zak is being nice to me, trying to buddy the new guy?
b) it's clearly a WIFOM, but I think at most only one of Ichabod or novice is scum given Ichabod's preemptive leap to Novice's defense.
c) Rowain's initial suspicions landing on Matt was weird, given the list of rejected roles he gave had a lot of stuff weirder to get rid of than FBI imo

Swings back to Q after flirting with votes on the scum, again seems to just be on random meta.

Also find it weird for a new player to start using stuff like WIFOM, not sure if thats a tell of anything though

Missed deadline cause of oversleep (causing me more problems than just this mafia game, bleh).

I honestly would have switched my vote to Jabbz had I been up, I felt like it would have been the safe play to get scans from all 3 cops (possibly of each other) which would help us pick right. Plus the mafia might kill 1 of the 3, further improving our odds. Anyway, we obviously picked right and got the liar, so now I'm pretty convinced the other two are town or this is the mother of all gambits.

This I don't like at all, if you wanted to get scans from the cops, why did you vote novice in the first place?

Short suspicion now is that I think Ichabod might be SK, I don't buy the gambit of making bad args then saying baiting the "reasonable" response was all ore planned, I think he just forced args and is trying to make the response seem scummy as well. Incidentally, it's easy to respond quickly like that cause I can remember what I've posted much better than the thread as a whole, so didn't require reread. More bad arg, and this one can't possibly be part of a gambit.

I say SK because I don't think ichabods voting pattern and arg-targets make sense for mafia (lew d1 in particular). Also not voting him this moment because I think hunting mafia is more productive atm (though if this is incorrect newb perspective and killing SK right now make sense Lmk)

Re whether I hunted people I recall pressuring lew and novice (teo scum), then pushing qq most of the day. Though the novice one doesn't buy me many points cause scum could plan his claim as a gambit.


I didn't go back to verify it myself, but I found the case on TT from yesterday persuasive, will put my vote there for now. twinkletoes

Sorry for continued lack of new cases, really haven't had the time.

Only mentions TT in passing on day 1, suddenly its persuasive? Also the argument on Ichabod being the SK is bizarre, see no evidence for that at all (we all know its rowain anyway)

[Jkaen]

I agree dtay looks a bit over the place, but it could be newbieness rather than scummyness, bob doesnt have that excuse, so would suggest he looks worse right now.

Moving off the dead vote of Jowy onto a relevant one Bob

[Gazglum]

I'm not sure on Bob. I straight up disagree with him about role revealing, but I don't know if his reasoning is scummy. And I think there is some confirmation bias in Jkaen and Adrien's analyses. For example, I think suggesting a restart after the unexpected Day 1 opening is a perfectly fair opinion, one I half-shared, and you don't have to be on team scum for it.

This I don't like at all, he has been posting through the day about letting the cop claimer prove himself, then when it seems novice is doomed immediately forgets that principal and hops on (--)

Jkaen, isn't this what the whole village did? Novice dropped to about zero votes after his claim, showing that there was agreement he should be given a chance as long as he was the only claimed cop. Once Mattimeo and Q made their reveals, then we had a GUARANTEED liar among the three, which is a totally different situation. I also 'hopped on' Novice at that point, because he became the best lynch.

Again, I'm not saying Bob mightn't be scum, but this is becoming a feeding frenzy and its giving cover to others.

I do think that Bob's Molach vote is half-arsed:

I'm going to switch to Molach, who made a fairly good voting history-based case against himself in post #621, which seems to have oddly subsequently gone ignored. He's certainly as bad as TT in that regard, and he doesn't have as convincing an excuse.

His argument that Jabbz is suspicious for having never been mentioned by Lewwyn is silly as well; I doubt most of us have mentioned every other player. I believe this is my first post naming Molach in any capacity.

Mainly for the accusing Molach of a silly Jabbz/Lewwyn argument which, as everyone pointed out, isn't silly at all. I agree that Molach has been borderline lurky, but I've liked the posts he's made.

[Meiz]

Those are better posts from Jkaen and make me feel a bit better on him.

I'll add that accusing someone of being SK is quite easy attack for a wolf to make, since you don't need to give reasons why they would be scum. Basically anyone could be SK. So I also consider that a minus for dtay.

[Gazglum]

Twinkletoes, I've liked Rowain's posts and think he's been pretty town like. I also don't think he's going to hang today, and he withstands pressure like a titanium submarine. Do you have a second preference vote at the moment?

[Qgqqqqq]

Ooooor my friend could decide we should finish off the last season of GoT to-night.....

On the plus side, fuck yeah, on the negative side, not caught up, let alone examining each lynch.

Two things from page 37:

Uhh, somehow this day just lost steam. I don't like it, and I don't think this stagnation means we've caught scum.

IMO that's really bad assumption to make. It got more quiet because everyone was waiting for their suspect to post. And there has been pushes for different people, like TT & Molach.

Yeah, that was before I looked at the vote count. So many different suspects means its much too hard to be sure on anything.

I'd hardly call TT a different person, though.


Secondly, I really dislike Jkaen's big post. It's a long list of claims with vague comments, barely more than the pluses and minuses, and no conclusions. Reminds me of the post I made in the me/Zak vs. him/Jowy/novice endgame (when I was scum). Maybe it's arrogance, but I think he's - consciously or subconsciously - emulating that here. It doesn't take any real effort to add comments to a bunch of posts, and at the comment to quote ratio he's using, it very much looks like he's trying too hard for a wall of text without real substance.


Fuck it, I'm going to bed. I'll set the alarm for 5:30 so I've time to react before the lynch.

[Jkaen]

This I don't like at all, he has been posting through the day about letting the cop claimer prove himself, then when it seems novice is doomed immediately forgets that principal and hops on (--)

Jkaen, isn't this what the whole village did?

Nope I didnt, nor did several others switch to Novice. Most of the people on novice at the end had either being arguing for a bunch of reveals or been neutral about it.

[Jkaen]

I assume this is the bob big post not the dtay big post, and doing my own analysis of the lead voters is the way to get the biggest bang for my buck time wise.

[AdrienIer]

Ooooor my friend could decide we should finish off the last season of GoT to-night.....

Qgqqqqq for watching season 4 so late

[Gazglum]

Oh before I am asked, I have read through quickly the case against TT, Ichabod seems to be putting cases together quite nicely this game (town read). Would have no problem voting TT, but would prefer to try and push another candidate that nobody really seems focused on.

What do you think of Twinkletoes now?