WW35: Not Another TPS Report [Game Thread]

[Molach]

Jabbz, I'd like a sorted list of "most scummy" or "furthest from Circle of Trust" of Molach, Zakalwe, Jkaen and Fenn.
The unclaimables.

[Qgqqqqq]

...[re:meta-ing TT's role]...

True.


That [fake-edit:second-to-]last post by Jabbz feels really weird - "yes I think Q and TT are both scum, but I'm pretty sure I won't shortly," - but I'll wait for him to explain/clarify himself tomorrow. I know I've wasted way too much on my limited time on him, rather than looking at other players.

[Qgqqqqq]

I know I'm town. Meiz is cleared enough in my mind - not only Jowy's tracking of Rowain, but when I was looking through his posts for my gambit yesterday, it was a real struggle to make him out as scum, tbh. Like Zak said that day, I'd go for him if I had a mafia-scan, but nothing less.

Twinkletoes89 is clearly scum. He lied about no-one visiting me night 1, and I was suspicious of him enough beforehand (voting record day 1, and so on). His claim was oddly handled, if he was town, as was his reactions to my claims earlier (i.e. non-existent).

Those are the reads I'm certain on. After that it gets a bit more murky.

3) Jabbz
4) Zakalwe
5) Molach
6) Jkaen
8) Fenn

Jabbz I've spilled so much e-ink over I've gotten lost in it. I thought he was scum for most of day 1, but his posts over night 1 and early day 2 made me reconsider. Then his posts since the latter half of day 3 have me questioning that all over again... I'm going to wait and see what he posts tomorrow, and judge from there.

Zakalwe...I can't get a read on. He's been saying the right things, making the right cases, but he feels...off. He feels like he's had less of a presence, more been agreeing with other peoples cases then making ones of his own and just generally strikes a bad chord on some level.
At the same time...he's made the most posts of everyone, and he does seem to be saying the right stuff so...idk. He's not a player I find easy to read at the best of times.

Molach I haven't really been paying attention to (except noting he had the least posts of anyone save Az yesterday), but he feels town.

Jkaen I had as a strong scum read at the end of day 2, and he's not really done anything to improve himself since - his posts have felt weak and half-hearted for the most part. He's one I definitely want to do a big reread on, especially with TT as scum, because I feel that the cases on the two were quite similar, and I'm not sure if that makes him being scum more or less likely.

Fenn has felt like a non-presence, really. Slight scum read for some odd comments, and a half-remembered but decent case from Ichabod back in the day but yeah, no real impression.

I suppose if I was to lynch now I'd go Jkaen--->Zakalwe->Fenn, with Jabbz slotted in somewhere there.

This is all done without any rereading, just my half-remembered impressions of the thread late at night. I'm definitely going to look at rereading those 3, especially how they reacted to the TT wagon day 2 and the novice train on day 1.

Night, all.

[zakalwe]

Rereading day 2.

I'll have some real thoughts up after a reread. Either we have no doctors or the Mafia has a strongman, because Mattimeo was so towny he'd be a prime choice for a doctor.

I'm pretty sure that's a false dichotomy. There could be other choices. Someone could have wifom'd the situation, and realized that wolves would think Matt was protected, and protected Qg instead, figuring him to be the target. Someone could have rollblocked a doctor. There might be other options I haven't though about as well. I do agree its likely a strongman, but it might hurt us if those are the only two scenarios we are looking at.

What was the purpose of this post, Jabbz?

[Molach]

Some random thoughts:

First this:
(Fenn said something like poor mafia this azarius modkill hurt them)

Fenns reaction to that sounded oddly sympathetic to the mafia. Probably overreacting, but still.

Really, Q? If this was a joke you forgot the . Otherwise, not my idea of a scum tell.
Mod kill did hurt them. And the Power-role-reveal-thing, forcing poor Novice into a cop claim.

---

I've been a bit lax, assuming we would end up with the 4. I was thinking there would be 2 days of auto-lynches (TT and Azarius) and then ending up with the 4 mentioned earlier. Hence no great urgency. With Azarius not killing tonight (I think obvious choice would have been to shoot Jabbz) and getting modkilled, we actually have to start in earnest tomorrow. TT's role and nightkill will give us more to work with, I guess, but still can hunt a bit.

The bonus is that we can afford a mislynch, as I see it.

In my book, Jabbz is very safely town. He claimed a role pretty early, and gave off the right "townie showing all who voted for him they were wrong"-vibes. The reveal also came at a time when we thought TT was town tracker/watcher, and there could even be another tracher or wacker who could give him away.

Meiz is town, says Jowy. Jowy the towny. Evidence is Rowain visiting Meiz, then saying he was town.
(5 minut break while I dig out Rowains posts day 2)
It's just this one, right after daybreak:

2 scum down. and also one ( the only one?) cop.

With Lewwyn dead I feel now very good about thos who voted Lewwyn and pushed Lewwyn in lead just before Matt dropped the hammer on novice. = Meiz, Jowy, Gazglum, AdrienIer, Ichabod very strong no mafia lean on those 5.

Waiting for Qg and his scan-result.

Nice list he got there, he includes Calvin the SK, but since he says no mafia lean rather than town he actually wins +3 playskill points here.

Okay, he mentions 5 guys here, Meiz is just one in the crowd. Difference being, he actually visited Meiz in the night and knows something about him.

Next six posts or so he says nothing about Meiz. At all. Then he dies in the night.

Rowain was the cop lover, so he had a lower % of survival. He knew Gazglum was a town lover and eligible for nightkill as well. If he had got a +mafia result on Meiz he would either have claimed or at least not ended the day/night with "very strong no mafia lean" on Meiz. If you did, you'd lose -5 playskill points.

So Meiz is as good as confirmed, and I'll lynch just about anyone before him. Except myself.

Q.
Hypothesis: "Q and TT are scum together"
Some points that could support this:
1. TT and Q couldn't talk during day
2. TT was forced into claiming watcher because of Jowy's tracker claim.
3. TT says he watched Q as obvious watcher target, forgetting about Q breadcrumbing that he was blocked. He would had some problems inventing a random person visiting Q to be roleblocked (if that person could prove he wasn't a 'visiter' then TT hangs). Or not realizing that BOB could have been responsible for 'blocking' the scans.

Against this, I have the obvious
1. Novice claimed cop. Q the fellow scum then decides to claim cop, even though there might be 2 real cops out there. Odds says both cops are in play. 1 cop means novice is killed, 2 cops means both get killed. (sooner or later). Q knows he has to claim better than roleblocker, but there should be a few roles he could have taken. IF the mafia knew about the discard-showing rule they might have decided to do the double-cop-claim routine with Novice and Q, realize that one was likely to die, but trusting that the deep cover provided for the other would see them through. But odds were around 50% of 2 village cops. I think. Maybe.

So Q is meta'd to be town in my book. And besides, lynch flip (which PR) and nightkill will shed more light on Q.

So that is where I stand. Fenn, Zakalwe and Jkaen are the remaining.

Will need to investigate further. Day 2 should be a good place to start for any would-be sleuths, TT was scum who was somewhat in the line of fire but dtay and bob ending up with the votes in the end.

[Meiz]

Good post Molach, feeling much better about you.

I expect similar posts from Zak, Jkaen & Fenn today to convince us of their townyness.

[zakalwe]

Interesting vote there Molach, given that it accomplishes absolutely nothing, but keeps you from helping decide who swings tonight. I'll remember that.

This whole episode, with Jabbz reprimanding Molach for joining him on TT, was very odd back then, and no less suspicious now that TT is almost certainly about to flip as mafia. From what I remember from previous Jabbz scum games, he is good at the claim game. (Stole my 1-shot vig claim, the bastard.) If the mafia has no strongman and still managed to kill Mattimeo, they would conclude that there is no doctor.

Didn't really mean to focus on Jabbz in this reread but he was the one who actually stood out.

I'll try to formulate a comprehensive evaluation of Jkaen/Molach/Fenn later, when I'm at a computer.

[Jabbz]

Hey guys, don't have long, about to go to my daughters color guard competition, but there are two posts I wanted to address that I can do so quickly. I'll be more comprehensive later today. (have my sons Academic Decathlon comp later this afternoon, damn the bastards who scheduled both on the same day)

What was the purpose of this post, Jabbz?

Breadcrumb and fishing for someone to say they were the roleblocker. I was going to reveal first thing day 2, then my dumb ass stopped and realized there could be a role blocker instead of just a strongarm. I figured scum wouldn't be likely to target me, I gave no signs of having an important role, and town was ready to lynch me. The fact that I looked that scummy however, meant town might have blocked me. So I did my best to open lines of communication in a way that ONLY the potential RB that blocked ME night one would notice. No one responded to my personals ad though, it left me feeling very lonely.

Good post Molach, feeling much better about you.

This. This is the type of stuff I feel has been lacking I think. My issues with Molach and Zach are they are too slick. I know that's not the greatest tell, but it almost feels like they are too polished, and that's something I find hard for a townie to achieve while really hunting.

[Meiz]

Jabbz do not spend too much time on defending against me. I think you are sure town, especially so if TT is revealed as mafia (which is quite likely I think). I'm currently leaning to TT + Fenn as the remaining mafia.

Still a bit strange for Zak to pick up that quote from Jabbz above, while there seems to be quite a lot of posts that IMO don't make TT & Jabbz a likely scum team. So maybe he could explain what he was going for there.

[zakalwe]

I picked up on it because I think they could be a scum team. I haven't had time to "polish" that theory but I'd appreciate a second opinion. People know that you can be trusted.

In general, I'd say that the only arguments from Jabbz that make sense in this game are the ones directed at TT. He is spot on there, but other stuff like saying I'm avoiding a claim or that Molach and I are "too polished" are pure junk, bordering on mudslinging.

And rereading his play at the end of day two, it looks extremely fishy. First he posted a big case on TT, then he went away for most of the day, and when he came back he kept emphasizing how he wasn't caught up, but the only thing he seemed sure of was that he wanted to move his vote away from TT. Afterwards he was adamant that he was not responsible for the collapse of the TT wagon, which he clearly was.

I've also been dismissing him as sure town after the doctor claim (and the ramp-up in activity that preceded it), but when rereading day two it struck me that it could be a very convenient claim. We'll never catch the strongman, so he will never be expected to deliver anything. If they have a ninja, they could have decided to take a risk-free shot at Mattimeo, just to check if it went through. Since it did, they got the bonus knowledge that doctor was a safe claim.

Coupled with the lack of obvious scum tells on the other three, it makes sense to me. I agree that TT + Fenn seems like the most likely "straightforward" theory. But I feel like I have to stretch a bit more to pitch Fenn's posts as scummy.