WW35: Not Another TPS Report [Game Thread]

[Qgqqqqq]

GG Meiz.

Jabbz, please. That's a silly defense. Everyone gets targeted, everyone needs to explain their read. You don't get an out because you think yourself solid town.

I'll reiterate, Fenn: Why do I as scummate to novice claim cop alongside him? There's a 2/3 chance of each cop being in the game, and just under 50% chance of both cops being in the game. Why do I take that risk when there's a very, very high chance it gets me or novice lynched, and a pretty high risk it gets both of us lynched - leaving aside the increased prominence and scrutiny.

All your statements there are predicated on my being scum. You're not even considering that I'm town. This isn't a town player tunneling, it's a scum player jumping on a last victorious lynch.

Fenn


Oh and when I say I barely bothered to submit my scans - obviously I did put thought into it, and made sure to submit it, despite not expecting anything to come of it. That's what I do every game, town or scum, because I believe in doing the greater good for my faction. (Last night I tried to scan Fenn, btw.)

[zakalwe]

Fenn, what did you think about my case against Jabbz?

You think there is likely just a single scum left, right? Why does it have to be Q? Claiming doctor seems like a less elaborate gambit.

I do agree with Meiz that making your case during the night lends it a little more credibility. Looks more spontaneous.

I don't like your mass claim query, though. Looks like role fishing, particularly with the way you directed it to a specific player. Why did you ask Jkaen about that?

[Molach]

Hypothesis A: There are two scum left
+ Both Jabbz and Q might be truthful, in which case there is a missing roleblocker and a strongman on the scumteam. Both of these players have been high up on the town list after their claims - Q's claim caused novice's lynch and Jabbz claim came at a time where several people had not claimed.
- This is a lot of scum in the game.
- If both of Jabbz & Q are truthful, then two of Fenn, Jkaen, Zakalwe, Molach is scum. Finding both without a mislynch...good luck. Some believable claims might improve the odds a bit...but yuck.

Hypothesis B: There is only one scum left.
Corollary: Q or Jabbz is lying.
Solution: We lynch one, then the other, then we win.

So if we think there is only 1 scum left the remaining play is easy.

If there are two scum left we are at Lylo, so keeping power roles intact should not be a concern. In this case we should claim in some non-random order. (Alphabetical? Diabolical? WeshouldhaveaskedMeizbeforehediedical?) and hopefully narrow the suspect list down.

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The two hypothetical scum could of course be J & Q along with an unclaimed, to further confuse matters.

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To leave the meta train behind, I said I approved of the Zakalwe-scan, but that is not because he has been acting scummy, but because I think he is a player who could pull of this mastermind-scheme of polluting the town's feel towards our cop and doctor and get us to lynch them for the inevitable win...
But last day's posting and Meiz' (why oh why did HE have to have a confirmable townrole of us) thumbs up on Zak in the end means I'll try to put that monkey on my back to rest. A while.

So this vote is me expressing the hope that we did not set off with a 5-1-1-12 setup and implementing my plan to see this through (collateral damage to be expected, but for the greater good....)
Qgqqqqq

[Qgqqqqq]

Soooo you're voting on the hope/meta that we've only got one scum remaining?

Surely it makes more sense to scumhunt based on the more pessimistic possibility - i.e., that we have two scum remaining? Given that if we lynch based on one, and we're wrong, we lose?

[Molach]

@Q - well if there are two left you could still be one of them, right? But not to worry, I'm open for input. Part of me likes this "safe path to victory if only one scum left" versus "you'll never find TWO scum without at least one mislynch anyway, silly rabbit"

And I made an error - I said if there are 2 scum then we might as well mass-claim as it's Lylo - not necessarily true, if some PR could save a life after a mislynch we get another go since it's 4-2.

Here's my views on the fantastic 3/4, written last night on PC but saving it for today (with some editing to make it more coherent)
Some thoughts on their voting day 2, the day of the mislynch ™
Day 2:
Fenn.
Votes Dtay early. Says he’ll post on the others. Does a couple minimal posts.

By his voting here, Fenn does what a scum would be happy to do. Makes an early vote on dtay. Much of the day bob is in the wind rather than Dtay, so Fenn is sitting on a safe vote without being implicated in the lynch. Doesn’t post much after this voting post. Dtay ends up getting lynched in the end over bob.

Jkaen:
Does pretty big thorough cases on all 3. Ends up voting dtay. Here is the end of one of the posts:

“I have to leave it part done atm, will try to finish off later, but I feel that if TT is scum there is a good chance one of the other 2 are as well, if TT isnt scum, based on the reads on the others I still think there is a good chance one of them is scum.

Hence lynching TT i dont think tells us as much as lynching the scummier (up to where I have read) Bob”

Huh? Whats that last bit again? Scummy fluff, that’s what. But he makes a real effort to put together cases on all 3, writes a lot on each. This was something he didn’t have to do. Ends up voting Bob, after his revenge-vote on Jowy. (His stubborn-villagery revenge vote, one could say, scum should not try to get into vote-slinging matches like this)

Zakalwe.
Votes Dtay when it’s popular. Actually helps set that train in motion. Then votes bob, helping that case get rolling. This…is actually voting for the 2 villagers over TT the scum. Even quite actively helping these 2 get into trouble. Zak the black does not advocate this, when you have two townies and one scum on the line you don’t get all gung-ho set out to make those two lynches happen like that. Too obvous. So Zak gets some town points from this. However, Zak is one of the players who could make this work, TT has some votes and suspicion, so he pulls some alternate targets into range with this.

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I'll add that Jabbz moved off TT after I voted for TT. He said something after that he posted that he was gonna move his vote anyway, so my vote would be a cheap way for me to gain trust by bussing my scumbuddy TT.

This is , I guess, some sort of self-defense, but also a look into Jabbz moving his vote off. A villager might do it anyway, a scum would be interested in doing it.

Jabbz' post before mine read

“Ok I've skimmed through everything so far. I'm going to try to go back and reread the key arguments against Dtay and Bob. I still dislike TT but realize that at this point a vote on him accomplishes nothing. Since it is still possible to have the vote switch from Bob to Dtay it's worth trying to cast at least a semi educated vote. If Bob and Dtay are reading, could you link me to what you think your best defensive post is? I hate being rushed like this.

Also, do we have any clue realistically how many scum are left? I assume we have at least 1 SK, odds are pretty decent there. But how many Sycophants is what I'm asking.”

Now would you, Gentlemen, if you were scum (this will be easy for one of you to visualize), deem it safe to place a vote on TT after this? Jabbz prefers TT! He is waiting on some defensive posts here. Rowain hasn’t voted! If Rowain votes TT, then Ichabod, by a post in which he says “I prefer dtay or TT over bob” , is likely to switch from Bob to TT. So my vote was not without risk for TT, and Jabbz might have considered staying on TT to see if his preferred baddie could get lynched.

[Molach]

Jabbz II.

They killed mattimeo night 1.
He died.
They conclude village has no doctor.
Claim doctor (=strongman, who will visit each & every suitable target anyway if caught by wackers)

?input requested?

[zakalwe]

I agree that you do deserve town credit for that vote, Molach. Meanwhile, you are not among the players who have taken every *other* opportunity to express their suspicions against TT. In fact, you are probably my strongest town lean at the moment.

As noted before, I also think the doctor gambit makes sense, or at least as much sense as the double cop gambit. The main point in Jabbz' favor is that TT wanted to lynch him over Novice.

Remove the insanely scummy end of day 2 and I'd feel a lot better about him.

I'll put my vote down for Fenn. I want some more insight into how he became convinced of Q's guilt. Also, his interactions with TT on day 3 were a little suspicious, as explained here:
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid521154

[zakalwe]

BTW. I was a bit disappointed to see this (night 1):

Zakalwe: IMO has just been reading very well this whole time, probing the right people, making the right points. Besides, he just reads very towny.

Erode into this (day 4):

Zakalwe...I can't get a read on. He's been saying the right things, making the right cases, but he feels...off. He feels like he's had less of a presence, more been agreeing with other peoples cases then making ones of his own and just generally strikes a bad chord on some level.
At the same time...he's made the most posts of everyone, and he does seem to be saying the right stuff so...idk. He's not a player I find easy to read at the best of times.

If you don't find me easy to read, why were you so sure about me after day 1? And what did I do in the meantime to lose your trust?

Do you want to comment on this, Q? Also, could you explain how you recognized Bob as town?

[Molach]

Claim doctor (=strongman, who will visit each & every suitable target anyway if caught by wackers)

'Strongman' here is of course error. I mean that whoever claims doctor will be hitman for the mafia, hitting obvious targets, but was obviously trying to 'doctor' him instead.

Would not protect against watcher (only 1 person seen visiting target = bad) but tracker-safe.

----

My thoughts here were that Q and Jabbz were pretty safely town. TT failing to flip a mafia PR means that it's more likely that one of them is lying, so both dropped a bit on the likely-town scale. And the doctor-claim-theory means that my feelings that Jabbz sounded very sure about proving his innocence when making (and advertising) the claim could carry less effect - he would feel good about claim regardless.

If only Fenn had Meiz' role to clear himself with... It's 3-2 Fenn/Q now?

[zakalwe]

I still suspect Q because he hasn't proven anything. His day one was filled with a lot of desperation when the pressure was on, he rejected a good role and if he is lying about his role, saying that he scried Lewwyn is an easy cover story. He may be a cop, hence my reticence to vote for him, but I do not see why we should trust him because we hope we have two cops.

Also, I feel that my suspicions on Lewwyn implicate him on Day one. When a Q lynch seemed inevitable, Lewwyn suddenly sounds defeatist and gives up on detailing his suspicions about him - arguing that there was little point any more. As Lewwyn is quite an emotional player, I think that his reaction is revealing. What other reason is there for him not to pile on with his strong suspicions unless he's holding out hope for a change in momentum? Lewwyn was more vocal when he chased cases on other players.

Ok, I said these were weak arguments, but maybe I should retract that. A better question is perhaps why would he even waste words on this, if Q isn't mafia? He must have seemed like a very unlikely mislynch target in that case. A lost cause, so why elaborate so much. Maybe he just wanted to name-drop his own "suspicions" against Lewwyn on day one.

Or maybe it's distancing, and his read on Lewwyn is in fact accurate? I mean, why *did* Lewwyn start out so aggressively, with a bang, against Q, only to back out of it with a whimper? That was a pretty strange maneuver.