WW 36 - Horrors in Kingsport [Game Thread]

[AdrienIer]

Sunrise's wife thinks he's wolf ? This is compelling evidence

Also I wanted to apologise for lurking through most of the day, I'll be back in a few hours and do some rereads

[Qgqqqqq]

Got the save. Having internet problems (unable to use wifi/internet despite connecting correctly) which I've been unable to solve after a while analyzing/researching. I should have a good bunch of time to test stuff tomorrow, but for now save is gonna be delayed.

This, plus having a couple of intense days (moving into uni hostel) is why I've not been posting much. I'll do some now (even though it's like midnight) and hopefully some before the lynch tomorrow (but no promises, because this isn't a living situation I'm used to). Thankfully looks like the threads been pretty quiet.

[Qgqqqqq]

Okay so I started my reread a bit later than intended so I missed novices initial post on me (lost all my previous multiquotes a while back). Go back to it, but for now

I still think Q is the best lynch. Ultimately, he charged in to defend Mattimeo, without being fully caught up. He had no reason based in reality for pushing Zak. The most likely explanation is that he jumped into action to save a scumbuddy, and chose Zak because he had registered other people suspecting Zak. He fails to get his facts straight about why Zak is suspicious. A town player would have no reason to push Zak like this in similar circumstances. If you're not properly caught up, why would you feel that Mattimeo is worth saving?

I was entirely caught up. I had misread what votes had actually occurred, tis true, and apparently I had misattributed a stance to Zak, so my radar was clearly faulty - but the important thing is I thought that I had the facts before me. And my stance on why I thought that has been entirely consistent. And I thought matt was worth saving because he looked like a typical, easy policy rather than facts or suspicion driven mislynch. That was my impression from the thread - and that is the part of the old days of less role intensity that I was dreading. He looked, to me, in the same vein as classical hero and so many others before him. The reason I found him town wasn't therefore in him, but rather the lack of substance to his case, and how/who it had been pushed.

Q is a formidable scum player who doesn't hesitate to tackle bad odds. He can talk his way out of anything and he knows it. So he would try to save mattimeo, and hope to talk himself out of trouble if the attempt failed. Don't let him.

A) aww shucks! B) I think you overestimate both my opinion of myself and the reality of myself. Whether or not I am as good as you describe, I certainly don't think of myself as that good, and there's few situations that I would enter into with the arrogance of "meh, I'll do something scummy, I can talk my way out of it". Last game was slightly different because a) meta stuff made that the best claim and b) I went into it expecting to die early on. Even after that, though, you can see me taking the cautious approach in not claiming scans/claiming scans on dead players. I'm a cautious player - whether in civ, werewolf or RL. So I don't think the idea of me being that blaise about it works.
You can also see me, right at the end, thinking there's 100% no chance of matt being scum. Why would I post that, when he was clearly going to flip? And why would I, cautious as I said, basically start and champion a lynch to save a scumfriend with half an hour to go? I had no idea others would join - the matt lead at that point was massive. So in most situations you would expect that putsch to fail - and then who looks guilty trying to save a scum near the lynch? I'm hardly immune to the concept of bussing - otoh, I don't think I've ever championed a lynch against a scumbuddys, let alone in the last half hour.

Best of luck to you and your wife Brick.

I began to wonder why scum killed zak. His death made it clear beyond doubt that we had a scum vs town run yesterday.
So I thought maybe there were more scum on the Matt-waggon who now try to make us look only on the zak-voters (which as far as I see has happened so far).

FWIW I agree completely with this analysis. Zak flipping town incriminates all the people who voted for him, giving a clear reason to go after their lynch that scum could hide behind. I think this is why zakalwe was killed over any other player. In this case I have to give a little town lean to Brick and a bit more to Qgqqqqq (whose recent posts make me feel better about him also) as along with me they are potential mislynch targets that scum would shoot for. Some town points to Rowain too for making this case first as well.

As it turns out, I have contradicted myself a bit, Q's voting/posting history becomes iffy, and Brick isn't available. Thus Q and I become the main wagons for today. Now I think Jabbz is looking bad; Lewwyn has already covered his iffy Day 1. Lately he argued for the great context that zak's death gives us and then disappeared without saying what that context was; I think hoping the conversation would naturally swing to the zak voters.

Also suspicious of dtay for explicitly pushing for lynching a zak-voter. Of course building cases against and lynching us is easy, that's probably why zak died last night in the first place. It's in the scum's best interest if we focus on the easy targets and don't go any deeper than that.

Fenn...Rowains analysis is the complete opposite of what you said before (and I pulled you up on). Where did this change, and did you ever post as to such? Because this looks like you backing off and trying to change your story.

Though on reflection it doesn't reflect well on Brick that he jumped back on Mattimeo right away. Possible action of scum or town though, so a null tell to me.

It doesn't look good - so it's scummy - but it could be either scum or town. Lulwut?

What are you even...

If I'm scum, then killing Zak to get him out of my hair is not a good tactic. Zak was the alternative lynch, and nowhere near so towny as to be impossible to scumcast on. Thus, killing him loses a defense for scum me (as well as others who pushed Zak, btw) - that he and matt were both scum - and strengthens the case against Zak votes, increasing their prominence today.

Thus, scum me wanting to kill him to further my own defense is simply inane.

(Which is not to say that scum me wouldn't do it - he was quite towny, and he's zakalwe so he's already a strong candidate absent roles. It's perfectly possible that my scum faction decided to take this chance despite the harm it would do to my defense, but it's certainly no motivation for scum wanti my to protect me.)

Still, when I flip today, look back on AdrienIers opportunism here. He's keeping his options open with a nice suspicion floating around on Saul, and his jumping on the night kill to scumfirm me just reeks. Actually makes me less suspicious of everyone else on Zak, though I don't doubt there's someone lurking amongst them (probably Fenn, but maybe I'm still angry about last game).

I know its been beat to death and Qg is already the topic of the day but this post feels so scummy. Lack of conviction and resignation... ugh.

Err...i don't remember people hating on that post. And what is lack of conviction? Or resignation - is it only the last bit? The rest is analyzing how I, as wolf, would approach this, and why it wasn't a good self defense move.

[Qgqqqqq]

Oh and btw I agree with Rowain on focusing on Matt voters. The same thing happened in '27 - we ended up lynching everyone who hadn't voted scum, and having far less reads on the rest (which was great, because I was scum ). I still definitely doubt there were no scum off Matt, but I don't think it would be too many, and we can't afford to neglect pressure.

[Qgqqqqq]

Oh and good luck BRick, I hope everything goes smoothly

Someone said something along the lines of me pushing the idea that it was a policy lynch. That is the impression I got strongly from the closing hours of say 1, and I think if you read that then it would be easy to see how. I wasn't in any way pushing it - its just that I hadn't seen any arguments that went beyond that for a long time.

[Qgqqqqq]

Partway through p23 or something and phone died. Taking that (and that its 1am, and I didn't sign up for this shi- hold on, I didn't signup at all!) as a sign, so going to sleep. Night.

[Rowain]

I do think we have been lazy today (post scum-lynching relaxation obviously) .

I will be back shortly before the DL.

In the meantime Fenn

(and yes I know in whose company I'm voting currently)

[Lewwyn]

It's one of the laziest day 2's I've ever seen.

I have all my family coming over today, so I'll try to be on, but probably less since they all came to see me.

[BRickAstley]

Probably won't be able to be on here much for the rest of today. I still feel reasonably confident about Qgqqqqq. It feels like last game, with him being caught in doing something fishy and trying to then convince his way out of it. Saying that he doesn't do anything risky is not quote true because he did a good few risky things last game, like the trying to breadcrumb roleblocked and how he played out his cop claim in general. I think he's good at trying to drag himself to safety after being caught in something and that's what's going on here. I can believe him saying he didn't plan all this out because he doesn't plan big gambit, but I can see him falling into one by last minute actions and then sticking it out and that that's what happened here.

[Gazglum]

Im going to try and catch up over the next few hours. Sorry this day was a write off for me.

Why have we stopped pressuring Saul? Hes an obvious winner from zaks death.