WW 36 - Horrors in Kingsport [Game Thread]

[Doctor Saul]

Qgqqq red vote, cant get phone to work.
Too early for self pitying 'when I flip town' post.

Will xontribute properly tomorrow.[/color]

No idea if Commodore is counting this or not, but he meant to vote Q

[Fenn]

Gazglum's been out and about, but still little word from him. Speak up!

Have to admit I like dtay better with his recent posts. Not a fan of his conclusions, but the analysis is sound.

Adrien, last game I had no choice but to be decisive - we were at mylo and I had a strong scumspect that I probably wasn't going to be able to successfully push to lynch; the Vengeful thing was the clear best option to me. Day 1 of this game wasn't nearly so definite.

[Lewwyn]

Qgqqq red vote, cant get phone to work.
Too early for self pitying 'when I flip town' post.

Will xontribute properly tomorrow.[/color]

No idea if Commodore is counting this or not, but he meant to vote Q

Yeah. Jabbz is the only one not voting.

[Gazglum]

Ok, I'm back at an actual computer terminal and will make a red vote before deadline.

[Jabbz]

This is very true though. Just answer the frigging question, Jabbz.

The problem with that Novice, is that I need time to do a solid readthrough, and I have not had that time this weekend. The wife decided it wasn't a sit at home and do nothing type of weekend.

[Jabbz]

Okay so I started my reread a bit later than intended so I missed novices initial post on me (lost all my previous multiquotes a while back). Go back to it, but for now

I still think Q is the best lynch. Ultimately, he charged in to defend Mattimeo, without being fully caught up. He had no reason based in reality for pushing Zak. The most likely explanation is that he jumped into action to save a scumbuddy, and chose Zak because he had registered other people suspecting Zak. He fails to get his facts straight about why Zak is suspicious. A town player would have no reason to push Zak like this in similar circumstances. If you're not properly caught up, why would you feel that Mattimeo is worth saving?

I was entirely caught up. I had misread what votes had actually occurred, tis true, and apparently I had misattributed a stance to Zak, so my radar was clearly faulty - but the important thing is I thought that I had the facts before me. And my stance on why I thought that has been entirely consistent. And I thought matt was worth saving because he looked like a typical, easy policy rather than facts or suspicion driven mislynch. That was my impression from the thread - and that is the part of the old days of less role intensity that I was dreading. He looked, to me, in the same vein as classical hero and so many others before him. The reason I found him town wasn't therefore in him, but rather the lack of substance to his case, and how/who it had been pushed.

Q is a formidable scum player who doesn't hesitate to tackle bad odds. He can talk his way out of anything and he knows it. So he would try to save mattimeo, and hope to talk himself out of trouble if the attempt failed. Don't let him.

A) aww shucks! B) I think you overestimate both my opinion of myself and the reality of myself. Whether or not I am as good as you describe, I certainly don't think of myself as that good, and there's few situations that I would enter into with the arrogance of "meh, I'll do something scummy, I can talk my way out of it". Last game was slightly different because a) meta stuff made that the best claim and b) I went into it expecting to die early on. Even after that, though, you can see me taking the cautious approach in not claiming scans/claiming scans on dead players. I'm a cautious player - whether in civ, werewolf or RL. So I don't think the idea of me being that blaise about it works.
You can also see me, right at the end, thinking there's 100% no chance of matt being scum. Why would I post that, when he was clearly going to flip? And why would I, cautious as I said, basically start and champion a lynch to save a scumfriend with half an hour to go? I had no idea others would join - the matt lead at that point was massive. So in most situations you would expect that putsch to fail - and then who looks guilty trying to save a scum near the lynch? I'm hardly immune to the concept of bussing - otoh, I don't think I've ever championed a lynch against a scumbuddys, let alone in the last half hour.

Best of luck to you and your wife Brick.

I began to wonder why scum killed zak. His death made it clear beyond doubt that we had a scum vs town run yesterday.
So I thought maybe there were more scum on the Matt-waggon who now try to make us look only on the zak-voters (which as far as I see has happened so far).

FWIW I agree completely with this analysis. Zak flipping town incriminates all the people who voted for him, giving a clear reason to go after their lynch that scum could hide behind. I think this is why zakalwe was killed over any other player. In this case I have to give a little town lean to Brick and a bit more to Qgqqqqq (whose recent posts make me feel better about him also) as along with me they are potential mislynch targets that scum would shoot for. Some town points to Rowain too for making this case first as well.

As it turns out, I have contradicted myself a bit, Q's voting/posting history becomes iffy, and Brick isn't available. Thus Q and I become the main wagons for today. Now I think Jabbz is looking bad; Lewwyn has already covered his iffy Day 1. Lately he argued for the great context that zak's death gives us and then disappeared without saying what that context was; I think hoping the conversation would naturally swing to the zak voters.

Also suspicious of dtay for explicitly pushing for lynching a zak-voter. Of course building cases against and lynching us is easy, that's probably why zak died last night in the first place. It's in the scum's best interest if we focus on the easy targets and don't go any deeper than that.

Fenn...Rowains analysis is the complete opposite of what you said before (and I pulled you up on). Where did this change, and did you ever post as to such? Because this looks like you backing off and trying to change your story.

Though on reflection it doesn't reflect well on Brick that he jumped back on Mattimeo right away. Possible action of scum or town though, so a null tell to me.

It doesn't look good - so it's scummy - but it could be either scum or town. Lulwut?

What are you even...

If I'm scum, then killing Zak to get him out of my hair is not a good tactic. Zak was the alternative lynch, and nowhere near so towny as to be impossible to scumcast on. Thus, killing him loses a defense for scum me (as well as others who pushed Zak, btw) - that he and matt were both scum - and strengthens the case against Zak votes, increasing their prominence today.

Thus, scum me wanting to kill him to further my own defense is simply inane.

(Which is not to say that scum me wouldn't do it - he was quite towny, and he's zakalwe so he's already a strong candidate absent roles. It's perfectly possible that my scum faction decided to take this chance despite the harm it would do to my defense, but it's certainly no motivation for scum wanti my to protect me.)

Still, when I flip today, look back on AdrienIers opportunism here. He's keeping his options open with a nice suspicion floating around on Saul, and his jumping on the night kill to scumfirm me just reeks. Actually makes me less suspicious of everyone else on Zak, though I don't doubt there's someone lurking amongst them (probably Fenn, but maybe I'm still angry about last game).

I know its been beat to death and Qg is already the topic of the day but this post feels so scummy. Lack of conviction and resignation... ugh.

Err...i don't remember people hating on that post. And what is lack of conviction? Or resignation - is it only the last bit? The rest is analyzing how I, as wolf, would approach this, and why it wasn't a good self defense move.

Weren't you the one last game bitching about me not paring down my multithread quotes? :P

[Jabbz]

I just like the case on Jabbz better.

Why am I not surprised that you're going after one of the few/only people that hasn't stopped thinking your slip and overreaction on defense was scummy?

Reposting with better quoting

My read on Jabbz:

Joke vote on Zak, fine w/e, though he was town fwiw

Somewhat joking seeming accusations against Rowain, Adrien, and Zak

Points out Saul mistaking my identity

Then

Saul's play is the only stuff today that actually stands out as scummy. Everything else is kind of wishy washy, maybe scum, maybe joke, etc. This stuff though... It looks like someone trying to float on by without attracting much attention.

So at this point very sure Saul is scum or at least a lot more sure compared to anyone else. Everything else is “wishy washy”, saul is “scummy”

Only stated reason is “float on by without attracting much attention”, which given Saul had to this point contributed more than Jabbz himself had (or Matt, or Sunrise, and probably a few others not thinking of atm) had, seems illogical.

More posts doesn't mean more contribution. Further, when a decent portion of that "contribution" was based on BS, it really doesn't count as contribution. Then most of the posts following that for a while were self defense posts which are practically the antithesis of contribution.

Gets annoyed at Gaz trying to “throw Saul a lifeline”, which I don’t think makes sense but doesn’t tilt me really one way or the other on town/scum atm

Blatant mischaracterization here. I asked a question, Gaz answered, I was cool with it. It was a legitimate question, you just don't like it because it affected you.

Clarifies his earlier accusation against Adrien was a joke, so to this point we have 4 joke posts, the 1 liner pointing out saul’s mistake, the 1 liner accusing saul that doesn’t have an arg, , and the gaz 1 liner.

No fucking humor, this is serious goddamn business folks.

Votes for Saul, no additional reasoning stated.

Jabbz defends against me, saying his case is fleshed out. This is… very wrong. His case in total consists of 0 actually stated reasons besides “saul looks suspicious”, and 1 inferrable reason that Saul mixed up me and someone else, which wasn’t even referenced in the later voting or case posts. Weird.

I voted for Saul because his initial mistake, your defense, and his defense, all smelled scummy. You are leaving that part out in order to try to paint a picture that doesn't exist.

Here’s Jabbz’s presentation of the case, there isn’t anything else he left off:

I think it's pretty obvious if you don't just look at the post where I voted, but what led to the entire conversation.


(February 18th, 2015 11:18)Jabbz Wrote: I thought Dtay was new to WW. Is this perhaps a wolf covering for another wolf, without actually making sure he has played with him before?

A slip of the magnitude that Saul made is substantial. He then doubles down on it as you will note below.

(February 18th, 2015 11:38)Doctor Saul Wrote: I remember playing with dtay before, and he was aggressive then. and I've been away a while from ww so he's certainly not new to rb or ww

On top of that, I added this.


(February 18th, 2015 11:53)Jabbz Wrote: Saul's play is the only stuff today that actually stands out as scummy. Everything else is kind of wishy washy, maybe scum, maybe joke, etc. This stuff though... It looks like someone trying to float on by without attracting much attention.

So yeah. It's a fairly fleshed out case, at least day one wise. The way Dtay is defending Saul, and the way he jumped off as soon as the train got momentum makes him look pretty scummy too.

Restates that mistaking my identity is “pretty big”.

You really like to leave things out as you do your "big reads."

The mistaking of your identity was big, when it included a read of your supposedly aggressive behavior being normal for you based on the past games. So yes, dtay, it was a big deal.


I voted for Saul because his initial mistake, your defense, and his defense, all smelled scummy. You are leaving that part out in order to try to paint a picture that doesn't exist.

This post:

I'd repost it again, but I'm fairly certain you will ignore it again. I made an observation. You and he both jumped as if I'd stuck a flaming brand down your britches. You then went into hyper defensive mode. That made me change my vote from a 100% joke vote on Zak, to a 50% serious vote on Saul. Now its 100%, and you're next.

Which amusingly is actually the most descriptive he’s been up to this point as to why exactly he’s voting for Saul, referencing for the first time Saul and my defensive reactions.

Is offline for a while, catches up, then explicitely votes to policy lynch matt.

Pushes against the people voting for Fenn that they should be voting for Matt instead. This is good, town points for this.

Then kind of hints he’d back off of Matt here, which doesn't look good in retrospect

I'm still not convinced of Saul's innocence, but since all I have on him is an overly defensive behavior, similar to dtay's, all I think that really warrants is keeping an eye on him. Mattimeo I almost don't want to lynch, because he died so early last game, but I feel that's a terrible reason to keep him in. Zak I'm TOTALLY down with hanging, but we all know my reasons for that are incredibly petty. (On a side note, I really hope you're scum Zak, so I can put my hands on the rope later )

Distrusts the switch to Zak

[quote='Jabbz']
I am really worried by this last minute swing to Zak. It seriously strikes me as planned/contrived early on. Zak is playing Zakish. It feels like wolves predicted this, laid a few breadcrumbs, and jumped on him last minute. Maybe I"m over reading it, but we went from Zak seems weird to, Zak must die, in the last 30 minutes of the day. I'm inherently distrustful of last minute swings like that.

Still hounding Saul in context of Matt lynch. Ok logic.

Says this:

I slapped my vote on Mattimeo because the lynch on you looked highly suspicious. I detailed exactly why it was problematic, but I'll be happy to explain to you yet again. The timing of your attack was what bothered me. When I had last logged off, the only comments about you were mostly jokes. I came back, and all of the sudden you are a serious contender for lynching. I looked at the timing, and it appeared the entire event started in the last 30 minutes. That smacked to me of scum action, so I took action to oppose it.

My comments of 'policy lynch' were to let matt, and others know, that I wasn't voting matt because I thought he was scummy, but because if someone had to go, I was more ok with it being the guy that had contributed so little. Hence, lynch on policy, rather than on content. Given that I wasn't running a wagon, I'm not entirely sure how you feel I was undermining it.

Which is misstating the order of his vote on Matt and the Zak lynch, though he admits it a few posts later and says he misremembered. Slightly scummy, could be honest mistake. I agree with him about the zak timing being inherently suspicious.

Talks a lot about hwo he doesn’t have reads besides Saul and me, and says he’ll know more when people die. Gets in argument with lew about this I don’t think I need to reproduce, not that important.

Reiterates thinks saul’s reactions “sealed the deal” because he defended himself.

it was your behavior as you insisted you were right, coupled with other arguments you made up to that point, that tipped the scale. Even then it was more a marker that you were suspicious, than a I want to lynch you. That didn't occur till it looked like dtay was overzealous in coming to your defense, despite the fact that he had a vote on you earlier.

I in general don’t like the way the Saul case came together. Expounded at length on why the mixup is a null tell for me, and the defensiveness I think should also be a null tell, why wouldn’t a villager think this is silly as well? The case also came together retroactively, with Jabbz stating over and over Saul was scummy / he suspected Saul, claiming his case was thorough, before ever actually mentioning WHAT his case was. You could infer the mixup thing since Jabbz was the one to point that out initially, but the defensiveness stuff doesn’t come up until wayyy after the fact.

Finally explains why he’s done defending.

Net: Scummy, but I still like my Fenn vote more. Don’t like at all the way the whole Saul case was handled and came together, and jabbz notably has 0 reads not originating from the Saul case (saul and then me arguing the saul wagon was bad). So the lack of activity is additionally scummy. However, I do think that him pushing for people to get off of Fenn and onto Matt (pretty unambiguously, if only for that 1 post) feels very towny. Basically that 1 post makes me want to vote fenn over him, especially sicne Fenn (and Qqqqqq, AND Jabbz) all have a low amount of reads and cases made, so they share that datapoint.

Jabbz notably could easily be Scum along with one of Qqqqq or Fenn in my mind. Maybe that Fenn post is defending Fenn? Except he’s pushing them onto ANOTHER scum. Scum pushing votes from scum to scum? Weird. I think Jabbz / Qqqqq is a more likely pair (if there is a pair).

Anyway, vote still on Fenn, but still net scummy lean on jabbz.

It’s annoying that I get scum-leans on all 3 of these people up for lynch, yet I’d bet the most likely number of scum up is only 1.

I'm not even going to bother with the rest of your bullshit read. You are mis-characterizing shit that I said, and I imagine you did it to others as well. You seem to think you have this awesome grasp on everything that's going on, but you are either blatantly changing shit around to create your own paradigm, or you are just seriously not able to read people. I can't tell if this is just you new to the game, or you being scum for the first time, but either way, its terrible logic.

[novice]

Just so you all know, deadline is in 47 minutes.

[Qgqqqqq]

Huh, that vote count is more favorable than expected. Still, best to remember Gazglum promised a vote.

Anyway, based on today I'm reading town on Dtay, Gaspar, Rowain and Saul. Dtays analysis has been strong and in depth, and I feel like if he's scum than he's probably had to do it on a scum in that mix, and none of his posts have felt like there's any reservations or pulling back or whatever. Gaspars posts have just felt quite genuine, especially the one on dtay (coincidentally) where he states he doesn't have a read and outlines why - it just very much felt like a natural post to me. Rowain's analysis of the kill and looking outside the Zak voters I liked because I feel like before this the town was being quite focused and tunneled on that area, and i thought it a very rowny thing to do - I'd say only a slight read, though. Saul I feel has contributed well today.

Scum I suppose I've got Fenn, Adrien and novice, perhaps with a smattering of Gazglum. Fenn fits a meta pov on his position on the Zak divergence and has tried to retcon stuff about it in a pretty suspicious manner. Adrien is much less sure, bur is based on his actions early day 1 plus the tone that I've gotten from his posts on day 2. Novice I'm hesitant on, but I feel his crusading on me is failing to engage or consider my defence and doesn't read tunneling town to me, but more like novice wanting to use the zak-him stereotype to his advantage. Otoh, I know a lot of that probably comes from my perception, and I'm not sure how much weight to give it. Gazlgum kinda fits the profile of a lurking scum, and I felt like his posts on day 1 were losing some of the essential vigour that is the Glum to me.

[sunrise089]

Please vote Jabbz. 45 minutes left, sheesh.