WW 36 - Horrors in Kingsport [Game Thread]

[Doctor Saul]

Jabbz jumped on Mattimeo later than Adrien or Sunrise did. Why forget about him?

I'm not forgetting Jabbz, but I do think he's more likely town. I want to see what he can contribute with now that he doesn't have defend constantly. His defending made me think "self righteous towny" -- you know, kind of like my day 1.

Why not vote me, for that matter, if we're going back to Mattimeo voters?

Zak is someone I (thought I) had a good read on what his scum play was. Novice I'm less sure of. In fact, three people I don't feel good about reading well are novice, gaspar, and lewwyn. Gaspar has pulled the wool over my eyes before with great success. Which is kind of why I'm being a chicken. But if I had to rank them I'd say Lewwyn's the towniest, Novice is middling, and Gaspar seems most likely of those three to be scum.

If Zak was clearly a wolf for tunelling on you Day 1, is Novice clearly a wolf for doing it Day 2? Why pull him back to 'equal scummy' after voting him yesterday? It doesn't seem to me like he has dosed himself with Townie points since then.

I'll have to look more at your day 2. Like I said, not much time for re-reads with school. And often I'm skimming in my first reads.

Your scumdar has been fluctuating like a broken Geiger counter this game, Saul.

I think a better analogy would be to say it's a dull blade, but I think it's getting better with use. For example what is your take on my AdrienIer case? I think the distancing from the Q case and the lack of really putting himself into any arguments is very scummy.

[Doctor Saul]

Ooops, mixed up responses to questions above. I'm writing this as I'm eating breakfast and have to leave for work in like 2 min. It's cause I love you guys that I put myself through this. And cause I want to see all you horrors dancing on ropes from the rafters!

[Gazglum]

I think a better analogy would be to say it's a dull blade, but I think it's getting better with use. For example what is your take on my AdrienIer case? I think the distancing from the Q case and the lack of really putting himself into any arguments is very scummy.

I think your Adrien case is weak sauce.

Ok, Adrien has done some scummy things. Two that stand out for me are his justifying his Fenn vote by using Fenn's vig shot last game: claiming it disproved Fenn's alleged indecisiveness. Fenn had to shoot or the game was lost, so I think it wasn't a sign of huge decisiveness to do it.

My biggest scum tell on Adrien is his post 645, where he accuses Novice of evil dealings for changing his vote to Mattimeo at teh end of Day 1. But the context was very clear that Novice was switching to save Zak, who he had claimed a town read on. As Novice said. And it was a bad attack Adrien brought out on the player who was currently under most pressure. But I can also see that as town Adrien getting excited and trying to pin Wolf Novice, and he has reason to OMGUS Novice because Novice has been on him too.

Overall it's not enough for me to greatly suspect Adrien, because you have to weigh it against his Day 1, which I think looks good. I didn't find his opening post scummy at all - every first post is awkward, and Adrien hasn't honed his joke post skills over years. Then he said some things I really agreed with:

The quiet day reinforces my conviction that Saul is innocent, the potential scum buddies would be making a lot of noise to get another wagon rolling wouldn't they ?

I thought you might want to give town points for that too, given the context. But more importantly:

IDK if I already changed my vote, but I'm on Mattimeo now. Not enough posting plus not so great content in both posts.

Putting Matt to 5 votes, compared to I think 4 on you. That was a key moment in getting a Mattimeo lynch off the ground, plus Adrien did it best to swing it further by emphasising he thought you were innocent. So the only way I can see Adrien being plausibly scum is if you are too, and he was choosing between two friends.

Sure, Adrien might be scum. He might have misplayed the day and not realised the danger Mattimeo was in, or he might have wanted some deep cover after getting so much pressure early on. But I really think that is less likely than the hypothesis that he is town.

It reminds me of your Fenn case, Saul. Vehement finger pointing at an easy target for relatively small slip-ups. Do you really think Adrien is the scummiest target today?

Are you basing the stuff about Adrien trying to distance himself from the Q-case on Q being scum, or Q being town?

You are right about one thing though - Adrien should be more active.

[AdrienIer]

So I want to vote for either Sunrise, Brick or AdrienIer now. I agree with the three amigos: Lewwyn, Gaspar, and Novice. One of you probably is scum. I'm just too chicken to pick. I gotta say I think Lewwyn gets the most town points because of his Day 2. But whatever, I'm chicken.

AdrienIer, how did you get from

My guess is that following that Saul post (not that I have an opinion on Saul right now, not anymore anyway) one or two scum decided to take a chance and jump in on Zak, but bad luck/timing made other people jump in at the same time and the wagon looked unnatural. The only one I kind of like is Lewwyn, he arrived super late and decided on almost no info that Zak was scummier than Matt, even going as far as stating that he had "town lean on Matt". That could be some weird WIFOM but it looks genuine. Out of the four other members of the original Zak wagon, there's a convenient wagon on Qgqqqqq that I'm happy to join.

to

Reread Q and Novice for now. I don't see what others seem to see in the Q case (at least I don't see a compelling case, just a few indirect arguments and they're not enough). I get some town vibes and some (small) scum vibes, so I wont be voting for him right away.

As each day passes you want your cases to have more content, at the beginning of D2 I was content to vote for Q but after rereading him there are enough good things to be said about him that I hadn't noticed before or that happened after the first post (like Q doing a relatively good D2). That's what I mean by "some town vibes and some (small) scum vibes".

Who's your case now AdrienIer? Cause I haven't seen you make one since the beginning of day 2.

I'll redirect you to post 645 where I made a small case against novice. I'm not voting for him because there's definitely not enough evidence. Maybe I should.
I haven't had time to reread everyone for now, but I will in the next hour : maybe I'll find more stuff while digging.

Post 414 is where you make your case against Qgqqqq

Have you actually read that post ? It's not a case against Q, it's my reasoning for suspecting a group of people (you, Q, Fenn and Brick) and then voting for the only one with votes on him at the time. Call it non-commital, call it lazy if you want, even I am not calling it a case.

So I got that you pushed Q and then wanted to look at Fenn instead, but you still think all our candidates from yesterday at scum. Come today I don't see you pushing any of the ones that fit your theory. But the biggest problem I have of the posts I quoted is that you go from making a case against Q, having it be your own case, taking ownership for it, but at the end of the day the attitude is "I dont know what you guys are talking about". It's like you're trying to suddenly make the case be somebody else's idea -- I mean yeah, other people are against Q, they're owning it. But like Brick says, you're just kind of gliding by.

I could attack Brick but it would be mostly about going for Zak then back to Mattimeo, which he has already explained. Not enough info to judge the explanation, I could try pure gut feeling (aka arbitrary decision) but I'd rather keep that as a last resort.
I really don't understand what you mean in this case by "taking ownership of the case" ? As I said, I made no real case, just pointed at a particular event and got suspicions on a group of people. I'd completely understand if you attacked me on that (even though I'm not the only one that did pretty much nothing on D2) but attacking me on having a case and backing out of it is silly. Posts 436 437 and 439 are non commital because that discussion doesn't give me any more info on Q being town or scum, I accepted the statement he made, end of story.

You completely misunderstood the post most central to your case against me Saul. That's what happens when you're building a fake case

[AdrienIer]

You are right about one thing though - Adrien should be more active.

I fully agree, and intend to do that now by rereading people.

[AdrienIer]

Everyone plays differently, everyone posts differently. It's motive and reasoning you need to look for. Laziness is a scum tell, not just in lurking and lack of posting but in not making good arguments. At least that's what's worked for me.

And you people attacked me for a "what I would do as scum" post ? But at least he's consistent in his attacks, I've been lazy yesterday and he's taken note of it in his post.

[Gaspar]

Yeah, okay.

Qgqqqqq

[AdrienIer]

Zak's last few posts make it sound like his vote was more off a gut feeling off the whole of my post, and that I understand a little bit more. It's still wrong, though; he's scummy IMO but I'm still keeping my vote on Fenn. Fenn's latest posting of his itinerary felt over-the-top to me. Nobody was asking him why he had been gone -- the lurker pressure was given to Mattimeo and Sunrise (and earlier to me). He also didn't address my accusation.

Saul is in real danger of being lynched today. If he’s town, then he wants to avoid that by, as he says, nailing a wolf. Apparently he thinks he’s got one in Fenn, but he’s not questioning him, he’s not hammering pressure on. Nobody else is picking up the case either, so it’s looking like Fenn won’t hang. In that situation, shouldn’t Saul be either doubling down on getting movement on Fenn, or switching to pressuring secondary suspects?

How is it that you are blaming me for Fenn not answering my accusations? I'm not just going to hammer questions on him all day when he doesn't answer. But you don't seem to give an opinion on my accusations, only that nobody is picking up on them and for that matter they must be bad. Scum points for Gazglum for not caring about my argument, only caring about the results. And are you really saying that I must be scummy because nobody else is joining me on Fenn? So by that logic only people voting for bandwagon's are town and people who are looking at other options must be scum? That's awful Gaz.

Sunrise, that first quote was a one-liner to quickly explain what I meant by formulaic. It's natural to include more nuance and some disclaimers when elaborating. I'm also not immune to strong conflicting opinions from Dtay and from Saul himself. I have no problem admitting that Saul could be innocent, and I really don't want to exaggerate the probability that he's scum. But at the moment I don't see any better cases, either.

I won't have much time for this today so my vote is likely to stay on Saul. Doesn't mean that I'm dead set on lynching him. I should have some time to reevaluate before the deadline.

Still busy. Little has changed. The quiet day mostly just makes me want to double down on Saul. Still willing to consider alternatives, though. I don't get scum vibes from AdrienIer, at least not recently.

There are a couple people I felt before that I had a really good read on how they play town/wolf. Zakalwe is one of them. Town Zak would never waste a whole day fixated on one target. Even if he was confident that person was town, I've seen Town Zak move on to other people and explore other avenues, because Town Zak knows that time is limited. Wolf Zak though doesn't really care about any of that, he just wants to make an argument that looks good and get a safe lynch so he can build town cred. This all smells of Wolf Zak. I wanted to go after Fenn before because I still want Fenn to answer my accusation but nobody else seems to give a care that he hasn't been and that he largely disappeared after the bandwagon on me got going.

But the one thing I wanted to see was whether Zakalwe would explore other targets. Or heck, explore other avenues of attack: right now the only attack Zak has given all day is that one post I made had an inherent "scumminess" to it. Even when Town Zak has been confident about a target he's still interrogated other people. But this Zak? The only person he's seriously pushed is me. He's not questioning other people because he's got his safe mislynch and he's going to ride it all day long.

Zakalwe

And if you don't believe me today, dear god please go after him when you get that final proof that this was a bandwagon job. He's pretty good at backpeddling though. I've seen him do it many times before.

AND I STILL WANT SOMEONE TO ANSWER MY FENN QUESTION. If you're just going to ignore everything I say then maybe you should just lynch me. But please please please, remember how awful Zakalwe is acting afterwards.

This I have some trouble analyzing. Tally is 5 Saul 3 Matt at that time, so let's look where this leads us if Saul is town. He's very wrong about Zak, and Zak is very wrong about him. He's trying to get things to move when the town is pretty quiet. Trying to save himself by waking up the town, so they can actually scumhunt. Why he didn't put a security vote on Matt remains a mystery to me though, he was the main alternative. But plausible.

If he's scum, well at first I thought it made no sense. If he was so sure he'd be killed he should have attacked another scum to give the other guy credit. But after all there was still time for a change, and considering that it was scum vs scum he might have decided to try and save both players by starting a third wagon. It almost worked in the end.

[Lewwyn]

I think your Adrien case is weak sauce.

Agreed. Adrien is really towny to me.

[AdrienIer]

Ok well I couldn't find anything else of importance until you attacked me Saul : I'm not going to vote for you just because you attacked me on false ground, everyone has a right to be mistaken.

Rereading Sunrise now, shouldn't take long