WW 36 - Horrors in Kingsport [Game Thread]

[Lewwyn]

I'm still most sure on Gaspar.

Novice hasn't avoided commenting on Gazglum's post or any of the other accusations towards Gaspar.

Typo... should be "has avoided"

[Gaspar]

Have a bit of unexpected time and Gazglum wrote an opus, so I at least owe him the courtesy of a response...

DAY 1
The main town point for Gaspar is that he was on Mattimeo. But he didn’t want to be.

Day 1 he avoids doing too much scum hunting by saying that we should do a lurker lynch. This is a town point, because it does leave Mattimeo open to danger. But in hindsight its less town than I thought, because he stresses that Sunrise is really his choice.

So, lynch a lurker guys, but make it Sunrise. This makes Sunrise town, by the way, because he is scum Gaspar's mislynch choice.

The day moves on,

Still prefer Matt or sunrise over other targets. I agree with novices interpretation of Adrieniers actions, but think we'll know better after a day or two.

Mattimeo joins him on Sunrise, trying to get a bandwagon going. But Sunrise, Rowain, me and Adrien are all onto Mattimeo then, so perhaps he thinks it would start to look suspicious for Gaspar to remain on Sunrise when he has said he’s fine lynching Mattimeo too.

So Gaspar switches to Mattimeo as well, but he doesn’t want to be there so he immediately starts working to kill the lynch:

Mattimeo

Money where my mouth is.

I don't love my company, though, so previous statement statemh.

@Rowain: I don't really love most of my company. Lot of lurkers and people I fos'd.

Also don't like how easy Matt is going down.

But Gaspar stirreth the pot in vain, because everybody else is happy to stick on Mattimeo. And so even though Gaspar apparently doesn’t like it, he sticks it out quietly.

In his defence Gaspar said to Saul:

Honestly, if I am scum I know Matt is scum. Why on earth would I hedge? I'd want the full bounty of town points for that, wouldn't I?

But of course he would hedge because it’s Day 1 and he knows there is likely to be a lot of jumping before deadline. He wants to have flexibility to run with it.

And indeed at the end of the day there is a mad scramble to Zak. Clearly this includes a lot of cold-feet town (including Fenn and Q), likely a majority. Discussions in the scum thread – should they all try to swing to Zak? But now it’s too risky because of so many votes on Mattimeo, they calculate that getting a majority elsewhere isn’t likely to happen, and Mattimeo would tell them to bus him instead. Better to get town points now and then mislynch later.

So end of day they’ve lost a friend, but they can spin it by putting the focus on the Zak voters. Nightkill Zak to prove his innocence, then you get two days of tasty mislynches by going after people who voted for him.

This is all very creative accounting but why wouldn't I go to zak when it was possible? Honestly, Matt as scum is dead meat regardless (I've been scum with him I think 2x before) so I would have thrown him under the bus immediately. You can paint this all this way or you can see it for what it was, a lack of certainty. I disliked the sunrise-Mattimeo interaction, I said so immediately, I just backed the other horse. When it came time to put up or shut up, I put up. At a time, I might add, I could have easily stayed in the shadows OR thrown zak under the bus. When you combine this with the fact that a scum Gaspar killed zak on N1 - why on earth would I have passed on the opportunity to lynch him over my scumbuddy? I mean, read it however you like but I'd take heat to get zak, who is basically my nemesis in these games, killed.

Day 2

Gaspar can relax here because we all played badly. He puts in good scum work, chatting away. Joins Lewwyn on Fenn, prods Lewwyn, prods Dtay, scums a bit at Adrien, ‘Q feels so scummy’, ‘one of Rowain, Novice or Lewwyn is scum’, Jabbz should defend by playing. It’s like a Summer day on the river, Gaspar can just glide with the current, suspecting everybody, hunting nobody. Fun times.

He does rouse himself to take a Q stand:

For whatever it's worth, I think the case on Qg has merit and agree that he's a good scum player, there's something to his overall tone that makes him feel earnest to me though. Not enough for me to defend him but enough that I'm not not comfortable with helping him hang.

And

I don't see a compelling reason to switch my vote though. Case on Qg makes some sense but I like the feel of his posts today. I also don't trust novice, who's been driving that bus.

Which is interesting because he do his best to get Q lynched the next day.

So who DOES Gaspar go with? Jabbz! Why? ‘To keep things interesting’ at first, (ie: pressure vote), but then he never switches off, because ‘Jabbz reminds me of myself’. Good hunting Sherlock.

I'm not going to be around much tomorrow, moving sucks, I'll go with Jabbz to keep things interesting since I lack enough conviction on novice or Lewwyn to stick wtih them on low info, though I still think it fairly likely one of them is scum.

Note that this is where we have the blushing bridesmaid Gaspar begin. He will say repeatedly from this moment that one of Rowain, Novice or Lewwyn is scum, but he won’t investigate them yet because it’s just Too Hard. He needs more info Day 2.
So Gaspar skates to the end of the line Day 2 and keeps his hands clean. He talked a lot, but basically did nothing more than the rest of us.

I don't really disagree with this analysis, I played a pretty lame D2. Though you could do this analysis for almost everyone in the village. Its not central to Gazglum's case, so lets move on.

DAY 3
Gaspar promises to rouse himself. He will ‘drive’ a bit. But what does that come down to?

Lewwyn or Novice are scum! But it’s still too hard! He still needs more info! He is unable to take a stand, even though he knows their play much better than a lot of the rest of the village who are happy to vote them or interrogate them.

So even though Novice or Lewwyn are apparently evil ringleaders, Gaspar jumps on Q when he takes off again, bringing this fresh new analysis to the table:

Yeah, okay.

Qgqqqqq

Ok, up to this point Gaspar could be town, no smoking gun, but he really scummed hard at the end of Day 3.

When I challenged Gaspar that he was coasting on his big Drive day, he said,

@Gazglum - Sorry I'm not living up to your expectations. Just not had quite the time to really drive the way I wanted. I don't think I've been hedging so much as maybe over-explaining my thoughts. When I'm sure, you'll know it.

I think I've probably been too focused on novice and Lewwyn. That's most likely scars from getting burned by Lewwyn last game I played. If it turns out he rolled scum, I want to make sure not to miss it and novice is always tough to pin a role because he's a bit enigmatic. I'm going to try and forget about them for a little while.

He’s certainly burbled away about Novice and Lewwyn, but has he voted them? No. Has he pressured them? No. Has he done anything? No. But he pretends like he has been leading this quixotic crusade against the Vets.

I tell him straight that I think he is wrong on Q, and he says the defense is ‘Pretty Compelling’, but…

We're not going to get a lynch on Lewwyn, Gazglum. Not right now, in this village. Plus I wouldn't mind getting the day plus another NK to get a better sense of what's going on with he and novice. So who else do you like enough as a target?

It’s too hard? It’s TOO HARD? Novice and Lewwyn already have votes. Novice has been a major suspect for two days, and Gaspar has SAID he think he could be scum? But now we can’t vote them because they are unlynchable.

I could possibly, POSSIBLY, still buy this as town if Gaspar then worked to get a compromise candidate. But he doesn’t. He says he agrees the case for Q being innocent is compelling, he says Day 2 that he thinks Q is ernest, but he VOTES HIM ANYWAY.

Gaspar voted to lynch a player he admitted was not a good case. He did NOT vote to lynch Novice, who he had said was ‘plausibly scum’ and a ‘likely ringleader’. And this was when the votes ended up split almost evenly between Q and Novice. So Gaspar could have switched to Novice and helped drive that home, but he didn't, because of course it was 'impossible'.

What a scumbo. What a scumbo.

Gaspar actively tried to shut down the move away from Q by saying it would be impossible to push through another candidate. He did not hunting of his own. He got his mislynch.

What is his excuse?

We're not going to get a lynch on Lewwyn, Gazglum. Not right now, in this village. Plus I wouldn't mind getting the day plus another NK to get a better sense of what's going on with he and novice. So who else do you like enough as a target?

He needs. More. Time. The same thing he has been saying since Day 2. He is the Hamlet of Scum.

Gaspar is 100% scum. Take him out tomorrow.

THE BIG PICTURE
But why would he do all this? Why not just kill off a Vet if he could? As he says:

And not for nothing but scum Gaspar would be all over a novice or Lewwyn lynch.

Indeed he would, unless one (or both) of Novice and Lewwyn are scum. This is the obvious answer – Gaspar is trying to protect his scumbuddy long enough to kill off other players who might vote Vets (Zak, Rowain). By the time he has had ‘enough time’, they will be able to bully the village into a loss.

The other possible reason is that he needed Q killed and Novice alive so he could do the 1-2 mislynch punch, as Novice pointed out himself. Mislynch Q > say ‘if Q flips town it will give us good leads’ > Mislynch Novice. Then they are probably at LyLo.

So who are his buddies? Once Gaspar flips scum tomorrow night, it will be easier to work out, but I would say definitely one of Novice or Lewwyn. My guess is Lewwyn, and that Novice is a patsy, but it could easily be Novice who was bad.

Who else? Gut feeling now, I would say Brick. 3 days, 81 posts, Brick still has done nothing for the village. I was suspicious of a Gaspar/Brick team, so I asked Brick specifically about Gaspar and got this:

Hmm, now that I think about it, I haven't really thought about Gaspar much. Today he seems to have all of the same reads as me (looking at Q, Lewwyn, and novice). I'll take a look at some of his arguments here in a little bit.

Thanks Brick. Take a stand.

Anyway, lynch Gaspar if I’m not around tomorrow. Lewwyn or Novice, whichever one of you is town better help lead that crusade.
[/quote]

I've answered this already. Here's my D3 in a nutshell:

(1) Busier than I anticipated. That's the whole game really. I think I've contributed more than some but certainly not to my usual standard. Fair enough, I don't mind taking heat for that, participation is the name of the game here. This is the crux of my "not driving."
(2) I felt unease with Lewwyn and novice but I never got a strong enough read to want to push. Qg was an excellent compromise - he wasn't offering much anyway. If novice was right and he was scum, then novice was almost certainly town and I go balls out on Lewwyn today. If novice was wrong and he was town, at least we stop having the same conversation and we have new info to look at everyone else in a fresh light.
(3) The smoking gun is me not wanting to waste time on a novice/Lewwyn push I didn't believe would result in a lynch. I don't really care if that gets me killed today, I'd do it again. Look, if I'm scum, wtf do I care who gets lynched as long as they're town. Unless you're suggesting the frankly preposterous notion that all 3 of us are scum, it is pretty fucking simple to just throw my weight on the one who isn't scum and then mea culpa later. Nobody ever gets hanged for having conviction. But in my position, I wanted a resolution to the Qg/novice saga and frankly, felt that Qg's lynch was far more probable. As it turned out, I guess I should have kept my mouth shut since a) Qg flipped blue and b) sharing my feelings is the biggest reason I'm defending right now.

Ultimately, I've not played my A game. But that's the sum of this case - Gaspar's not played very well and Gazglum (and Lewwyn) really don't like me arguing against a novice lynch. So it goes.

[Gaspar]

Screwed up the formatting there, but I used italics to indicate my comments, hopefully that's readable.

I'm out of time for tonight. Brick that role sounds ridiculous. I put nothing past Commodore, but seriously?

Brickastley

[Jabbz]

Haven't had a chance to read much of anything, spent the morning in class, and the afternooon in the hospital with my mother in law. Tired, going to bed, but wanted to check in so people realize I still exist. Night all.Oh, and GG Gaz, your commentary will be missed.

[novice]

Novice has avoided commenting on Gazglum's post or any of the other accusations towards Gaspar.

I believe Gaspar's defense, frankly. I know he's not defending me, and I don't think he's defending you either. With BRick or AdrienIer being scum, I can see both you and Gaspar as town. I've been able to for a while - we have major reciprocal trust issues but our actions make sense as town as well.

Gaspar's comment on day 3 that he would be all over me or you as scum, resonated with me. And like he says in his defense: "Look, if I'm scum, wtf do I care who gets lynched as long as they're town. Unless you're suggesting the frankly preposterous notion that all 3 of us are scum, it is pretty fucking simple to just throw my weight on the one who isn't scum and then mea culpa later." To add to that, if both you and I are town, Lewwyn, Gaspar could just mislynch one and buddy the other in the process.

Anyway I will reassess all this tomorrow if I'm still alive, but today I'm going to focus on BRick and AdrienIer.

[novice]

Okay, I reread AdrienIer and multiquoted a few posts that stood out while rereading. Those aren't the main point though. The short of it is I really like AdrienIer's day 2/3. If he's scum then well played, sir. Sorry about the backhanded compliment but I think it's more plausible that BRick has played a good scum game than AdrienIer playing a blinder.

He admittedly gets off to a shaky start, doing the random vote, self vote, then votes scum, then posts "what I would do as scum". That is day 1 level of scum tells though.

This day one is going to be super random. At least at the start. So I might as well use random.org for the first vote. I am therefore voting for number 10 [/color]:
AdrienIer

Oh...

Second try is better :
Mattimeo

Never rolled scum yet, but when I'll eventually do my first wolf game my first post in the wolf thread will be to ask for advice, in order to stay low and not to attract attention

He bounced back though with solid analysis involving many players. The kind of thing that's hard to do convincingly as scum, reminiscent of Dtay's posts. By comparison it's easier for BRick to dig out scummy tidbits from an already defensive Qgqqqqq.

There's also things like this:

IDK if I already changed my vote, but I'm on Mattimeo now. Not enough posting plus not so great content in both posts.

Already pointed out by Zak as a big vote in terms of getting Mattimeo lynched.

And this:

It’s annoying that I get scum-leans on all 3 of these people up for lynch, yet I’d bet the most likely number of scum up is only 1.

Scum would tend to at least side with someone as town, saying all the lynch candidates are scummy feels towny.

Also a quote I lost about how on day 3 he's still waiting for the gotcha epiphany a.k.a. Bob from last game. (Paraphrasing.)

So anyway, on balance, BRickAstley.

[AdrienIer]

I'll try to be objective today, it's tempting to be convinced that you and Gaspar are scum and forget about the rest. Especially with Gaspar siding with you (or rather you with him) on BRick.

Why would BRick set you up ? It means suicide for him on the next day. It delays the Gaspar lynch by two days but he's still probably going to die. So what's the point ? It's just going to use all our mislynches and means that after the Gaspar Lynch it's LyLo, 2vs 1. You might have died anyway, considering the previous days and the number of people that suspected you, so why chose you ? Yes it stops the Gaspar momentum but Gazglum's post isn't going away.

I can see some dangerous possibilities, but I'd like your opinion on the matter.

[novice]

I'll try to be objective today, it's tempting to be convinced that you and Gaspar are scum and forget about the rest. Especially with Gaspar siding with you (or rather you with him) on BRick.

Why would BRick set you up ? It means suicide for him on the next day. It delays the Gaspar lynch by two days but he's still probably going to die. So what's the point ? It's just going to use all our mislynches and means that after the Gaspar Lynch it's LyLo, 2vs 1. You might have died anyway, considering the previous days and the number of people that suspected you, so why chose you ? Yes it stops the Gaspar momentum but Gazglum's post isn't going away.

I can see some dangerous possibilities, but I'd like your opinion on the matter.

That is a good question, and I really don't know. Nine players left alive:
Lewwyn
Jabbz
Brick
Sunrise
Dtay
AdrienIer
Gaspar
Novice
Dr. Saul (Pindicator)

Gazglum killed Night 3
Qgqqqqq lynched Day 3
Rowain killed Night 2
Fenn lynched Day 2
Zakalwe killed Night 1
Mattimeo lynched Day 1

You're assuming we have one mislynch left, i.e. 3 scum remaining. It could plausibly be just 2 scum remaining, but that makes it even harder to explain, of course.

I guess BRick's plan could be to mislynch you (AdrienIer) next. Or maybe (but it seems very unlikely and unfair) scum have a way of accelerating the endgame, such as a one time lynch immunity or day kill (or extra scum). Or they just feel confident that they have a second mislynch lined up, Gaspar for example. That doesn't really explain the need for a 1-for-1 trade, but as mentioned the claim has the potential of a 1-for-2 trade.

So yeah. Maybe I should be voting AdrienIer on that basis, but BRick has been known to WIFOM an unlikely claim to success. In the Alpha Centauri game he claimed Nerve Stapler or something, an extremely antitown role.

Or maybe I should be voting AdrienIer for making two implicit assumptions indicating inside knowledge - there being 3 scum left and Gaspar being scum. I mean, I can understand you suspecting Gaspar as scum with me, but why whould he be scum with BRick?

[novice]

I knew I wanted to go with novice because I suspected him the most, and gaz because he was the most towny by far. I kept waffling on my third choice, but I did like your play yesterday, and your additional digging on Gasparilla before deadline sounded pretty town and earnest, so I included you as my third.

Who did you waffle between as your third choice?

HAHAHAHAHAHA

We've got this one in the bag today.

I am a Collector of Much Evidence. Once during the game I can scan 3 players, and I am given a positive result if any of them have killed in the last two days. Last night I scanned novice, Gazglum, and AdrienIer. And I got back 'positive'.

Therefore, today we should lynch novice.

No looking for scum buddies before you drop the bomb? No reevaluation of AdrienIer, on whom you kept waffling?

[novice]

I can see some dangerous possibilities, but I'd like your opinion on the matter.

What possibilities do you see?