WW 36 - Horrors in Kingsport [Game Thread]

[AdrienIer]

Sunrise ? Any reaction ?

[Lewwyn]

So here are the remaining players:

Lewwyn
Jabbz
Brick
Sunrise
Dtay
AdrienIer
Gaspar
Novice
Dr. Saul (Pindicator)

I know I'm a vanilla villager. I think we probably have 3 scum left and the village is going to lose no problem. I accept that because honestly everyone's just been too silent. I actually think that maybe the village would benefit from shorter days (24 hours) so that we just played a little more to the gut and stopped over thinking things, because that's what happens. The village cannibalizes itself over thinking and trying to outsmart the scum. I see it happening again today with Bricks claim. overanalyzing. There's too much info for most people to deal with so scum can pick and choose their argument. Just lynch the most scummy one. In this case Gaspar. I mean I just showed you him characterizing me one way on Day2 and then the other way today. Obvious scum. Lynch obvious scum.

Tangent aside here are my views on everyone else today. I'm doing this for me as well as everyone else.

Village reads:
Sauldicator
Adrien

Leaning village:
dtay

Unknown:
Sunrise
Brick

Leaning scum:
Jabbz

Most likely scum:
novice

100% convinced scum:
Gaspar

[Jabbz]

Could someone post a votecount? My plugin isn't working for some reason.

[Doctor Saul]

Guys, I gotta agree with Lewwyn. Before Brick's reveal Gaspar and Novice were my two biggest scum leans. Gaspar has been coasting through non-committal to anything. I haven't seen anything from Gaspar today to change that opinion, and just haven't seen anything from novice. I've been duped by both of them in the past when they were scum and this feels a lot like those instances. Lewwyn's been the one whose been trying to rally discussion and a lot of his questioning had lined up with questions I found myself asking at the time. So to me it is far more likely that town Lewwyn is trying to rally the troops and scum is trying to coast by. (And hell, if the opposite is true then we're probably lost anyway ...)

We've got two or three people who haven't even voted yet.

Jabbz, we have 24 hrs left. Vote your gut now, evaluate the vote count later

[Jabbz]

I'd love to see some people tell me what they think on my logic of the possible Brick gambit before I place my vote.

[Lewwyn]

Could someone post a votecount? My plugin isn't working for some reason.

2 votes: Gaspar (Doctor Saul, Lewwyn)
2 votes: novice (BRickAstley, AdrienIer)
1 votes: Brickastley (novice)
1 votes: Lewwyn (Gaspar)

[dtay]

Partially through rereads, parents visiting today but will be able to participate a lot tonight and tomorrow morning.

Just checking in so people know I'm not awol.

There's enough meaty things floating around and dyads where 1 of the 2 almost has to be scum that we don't need to vote on it now, but Saul's point that those coasting by are dangerous bears repeating. Say for the sake of demonstration Lew's theory is right and we have a novice/gaspar scum pair, we successfully lynch them two and then... what do we do if there's a 3rd? There's a lot of players I have basically a "i just don't know" read on (high overlap with Lew's unsure category) that could easily contain deep cover scum.

I don't think we should really go after one of these guys today, but at least pressure everyone to get opinions and reads out there on this current conflict, it's significant enough that knowing what people thought about it will really help in the endgame.

So, Sunrise, Jabbz, myself-thus-far, and honestly kind of adrien and brick (though they're on the right track) need to contribute here. If we get ths one wrong we're at lylo if there are 3 scum + no protections (likely), so we'll need max information on WHO contributed to this one going wrong.

Now that i've been sufficiently hypocritical, see ya'll in 6 hours or so...

[AdrienIer]

We could go with Gaspar->Novice if most people want that. Worse situation is if we split our votes and scum have the possibility of getting Lewwyn lynched. But their play today and tomorrow will be to solidify their last player to make it harder to spot him. Even if we get two scums in a row team scum has a winning chance.

[Lewwyn]

Listen here's the main point. If Brick is scum what's his motivation for doing this "gambit" at the beginning of the day? The only one under real heat is Gaspar. So if Brick is scum Gaspar is also scum. If Brick is town then that does not mean Gaspar is not town. It does mean novice or Adrien is also scum.

What it comes down to for me is that Gaspar is the very best lynch for town today because independent of Brick's alignment he is the most likely scum.

The town must lynch Gaspar today.

The gambit is simple. He scanned novice, gaz, and adrien. We lynch novice tonight, he's town. Brick then gets to be shocked that novice wasn't scum, but wait, there's more! Now adrien must be scum, so we lynch adrien. Adrien is town, but at this point, it's too late, as were down 4 town (two mislynch two night kills) and if scum haven't won at this point, they have traded 4 town for 1 of (2 or more likely 3) remaining scum. Not a damn bad trade IMO.

Ive been thinking about this since I read it during class yesterday. That's all the reading I got done yesterday, so I was untainted by the rest of the discussion that's occurred today. The question isn't "is Brick being honest?" It's "can we afford to be wrong?"

I don't think its entirely implausible, but you're basing this on the idea that scum needed to make this gambit. Why do you think the gambit is nescessary?? It's only necessary if scum are on the block. So if you think its a gambit and you think that Brick is scum who benefits? Gaspar for one. Another big problem with it being a gambit though is that it targets novice. Do you think novice is town? I think people were ready to lynch novice today anyway without Brick's claim.

And thus leads me to my main point. We lynch Gaspar and we can come back to Brick and novice and Adrien. And I promise I would be open to that discussion. But I'm not willing to risk the game on chasing that and being divided by that when we have obvious scum to lynch in Gaspar.

The village cannot win without consolidating at this point.

[Lewwyn]

I'd love to see some people tell me what they think on my logic of the possible Brick gambit before I place my vote.

Done.