(March 1st, 2015, 13:50)Doctor Saul Wrote: Novice, you said it yourself:
(February 20th, 2015, 15:40)novice Wrote: Rereading again, Matt was in pretty serious trouble all day really.
Why do you think it's unlikely he told scum to bus him?
(March 1st, 2015, 13:55)dtay Wrote: And agree with crossposted Saul post. I stated it above, but there are two diametrically opposed possible explanations for scum votes on Matt, early votes to build cred or late votes to bus. Only some really really difficult to know middle is difficult for scum, if space even exists between the two of them.
You're both missing the point. I'm not saying that's an unlikely scenario. My point is that on day 3, BRick took it for given that Mattimeo had told his scum buddies to bus him. And yet, in the very same post he said that he was convinced that Qgqqqqq was scum. But why would scum Qgqqqqq pull a last-minute wagon on Zak if the scum game plan all along was to bus Mattimeo?
(March 1st, 2015, 14:07)dtay Wrote: Like specific example - vote count was this when Gaspar switched, pretty clearly imo knowing he would be bussing Matt since Matt hadn't run away with the day yet. Not also that Saul was leading earlier that day until Gaz and Adrien joined on Matt.
With 2 known villagers, 1 very very likely villager, and w/e Jabbz is on Saul, if Gaspar and Matt were actively trying to be on the villager they wanted to mislynch they should have been on Saul, who was even leading before this and could easily have passed Matt at this point.
For me, this is one of the points indicating that Saul is the fourth scum.
Day 1 - novice votes AdrienIer for the self vote but then attacks Q for this post, calling it too forced:
(February 18th, 2015, 03:13)Qgqqqqq Wrote:
Quote:I ended up rerolling Matt.
Huh, I must've missed this on the way through. If you rerolled anyway, why post it? It only seems to distract from the issue. And if you were going to post it, why reroll? Especially seeing as sticking with your self-vote would also have pushed through the joke vote phase you were so eager to push past.
This all seems a bit weird, IMO.
When asked by Rowain to explain how he suspects both AdrienIer and Q (scum pair or either/or), novice gives a rather confusing answer:
(February 19th, 2015, 09:09)novice Wrote:
(February 19th, 2015, 06:36)Gazglum Wrote: Novice, have you changed your opinion on Saul? What in his posting made you move off him?
Nothing changed. I gave his wagon a push but the case is pretty tenuous. I think Adrien is slightly more scummy. Also I agree with what Gaspar wrote.
(February 19th, 2015, 06:36)Rowain Wrote:
(February 19th, 2015, 06:31)novice Wrote: I can suspect both, surely?
Of course. do you think they are both sum or rather an either-or case here.
I don't see any evidence implying increased correlation.
(February 19th, 2015, 07:03)AdrienIer Wrote:
(February 19th, 2015, 05:17)Rowain Wrote: [quote='AdrienIer' pid='523363' dateline='1424339852']
If no one agrees with me I'll change my vote for something more useful and wait for more info on him.
What do you consider as more useful?
Oh I missed this somehow, I mean joining the wagon that looks best, I don't want to waste my vote voting for him on my own
So you're parking your vote on me until you see where the wind blows?
[/quote]
Day 2 -
Novice comes out swinging against Qgqqqqq:
(February 20th, 2015, 15:40)novice Wrote:
(February 18th, 2015, 08:29)zakalwe Wrote: I will happily policy lynch any lurker who keeps lurking.
I'd be willing to join the wagon on Q, but for now I'm staying on Mattimeo.
(February 18th, 2015, 13:39)Commodore Wrote: Tally as of post 111:
(February 19th, 2015, 11:20)zakalwe Wrote: I honestly don't know who else to lynch, Saul. Maybe return to Brick or Q. Gaspar would be a cliché but possible. (He is more townish than usual though.) No strong opinion on Fenn.
Rereading again, Matt was in pretty serious trouble all day really. With Zak and myself (town) suspecting Q, it seems odd that nobody tried to get a Q lynch started. Circumstantial, I know, but still.
Q, since when has Zak been opposed to policy lynching lurkers? I find that very much in Zak's character. Your Zak push seems very insincerely founded.
Qgqqqqq
And then gives us this content-rich post later on:
(February 21st, 2015, 20:14)novice Wrote: I think dtay is doing excellent analysis both D1 and D2, as well as last game. I like his case on Fenn here.
Rowain's logic regarding implications from a Zak kill is fair enough, but I find it strange that people suspect dtay.
(February 21st, 2015, 14:56)Doctor Saul Wrote: Still, I just can't help but think I've seen this kind of "easy" case before, and one of the reasons I am doubting him [Jabbz] as scum is thinking maybe he's just an aggressive / overly eager new player who just doesn't explain his thought process well. But that is starting to look less true now that he's disappeared. It's seeming more like a demotivated scum that had his buddy lynched day 1 and is now on the block himself.
Jabbz' behaviour is completely in line with last game, where he was town.
(February 21st, 2015, 14:57)Lewwyn Wrote: [quote='Jabbz' pid='524079' dateline='1424548301']
I'm not around much today, but I did skim through the posts. Yes there is more context now with both Zak and Matt dead. Yes I feel like I'm getting information about it.
That being said, no I wont defend myself constantly this game. I wore myself out last game doing 15 freaking days of defending myself. I look scummy every game, deal with it, or don't. I very much mean it when I say I'd rather be lynched early and laugh at you for having tunnel vision, than I would spend another game on the back foot like last time. I gave my explanations for my actions. You can accept it, or not. Your choice.
BBL
I'm not asking you to defend yourself. I started with a very specific question. What context has Zak's death given your reads and suspicions? The fact that you fall back on "I'm tired of defending myself" doesn't do anything to move the needle here.
This is very true though. Just answer the frigging question, Jabbz.
Lewwyn's vote on Gaspar was pretty poorly founded. I can understand suspecting him on general principles, but tying a zak kill to Gaspar is pretty silly.
I still think Q is the best lynch. Ultimately, he charged in to defend Mattimeo, without being fully caught up. He had no reason based in reality for pushing Zak. The most likely explanation is that he jumped into action to save a scumbuddy, and chose Zak because he had registered other people suspecting Zak. He fails to get his facts straight about why Zak is suspicious. A town player would have no reason to push Zak like this in similar circumstances. If you're not properly caught up, why would you feel that Mattimeo is worth saving?
Q is a formidable scum player who doesn't hesitate to tackle bad odds. He can talk his way out of anything and he knows it. So he would try to save mattimeo, and hope to talk himself out of trouble if the attempt failed. Don't let him.
By the way, Q was not the one leading the zak cheering campaign day 1. That was me, and I have a hard time believing novice would mistakenly distort that fact.
But that's it for the entire day! There's no attempt to convince people he's on to something on Q. There's just non-commital short posts after.
(February 22nd, 2015, 04:10)novice Wrote:
(February 21st, 2015, 05:26)Gazglum Wrote: Qgqqq red vote, cant get phone to work.
Too early for self pitying 'when I flip town' post.
Will xontribute properly tomorrow.[/color]
gaz went to Bristol then posted the above.
(February 22nd, 2015, 12:37)novice Wrote:
(February 22nd, 2015, 12:29)Doctor Saul Wrote: It's between Jabbz and Fenn for me. I'll have to reread Q's stuff again, but my take before was that he was just out of touch and skimming stuff. He actually thought my mixup was between him and someone else.
Yes, Q did seem out of touch, which brings up the question of why he would try to prevent an excellent default lynch in Mattimeo.
Also, Q claims that he was fully caught up. I don't actually believe that. But you should base a town read on Q on that premise, not on a premise that he was out of touch.
(February 22nd, 2015, 14:12)novice Wrote: Just so you all know, deadline is in 47 minutes.
And he really doesn't comment on other targets. AdrienIer seems to have been forgotten. The other people on the block don't get a comment either. He moved to save zak day 1 but doesn't give any mention to save people he think may be town in day 2. I can't even find a comment about Fenn.
This does not sound like someone who's trying to convince people to vote for his candidate -- wouldn't someone who was so convinced that they had caught scum Q, so convinced that they hardly comment on anything else in the game -- wouldn't that person actually want to convince people to vote Q. But like Lewwyn has already said, novice telling people the deadline was in 47 minutes does none of this. To me, that's scum novice happy to have a town on the block and happy to have another mislynch lined up for day 3.
Night 2 he lays out his case, and distorts the facts to make it sound like a conspiracy to cover up Q:
(February 22nd, 2015, 18:49)novice Wrote: I don't know that it was a lazy day, I felt we had completed our work early:
(February 21st, 2015, 09:37)novice Wrote: Tally as of post 441:
A lot of people seemed to support a Q lynch but backed out of it:
[quote='AdrienIer' pid='523864' dateline='1424467929']there's a convenient wagon on Qgqqqqq that I'm happy to join.
(February 21st, 2015, 05:26)Gazglum Wrote: Qgqqq red vote, cant get phone to work.
Too early for self pitying 'when I flip town' post.
(February 21st, 2015, 09:59)Lewwyn Wrote: I understand why people are voting for him [Q] and I don't think he's a bad target for today.
(February 21st, 2015, 12:08)dtay Wrote: Net of this is I don't like Qqqqqqq, list of short "kind of scummy" reads when matt was on the block, actual vote to save Matt, and lack of substantive other contributions -> would be very happy with lynching him. Impressionistically would want to lynch him more than his blockmate Fenn, but I don't remember a ton of what Fenn did d1 so gonna go look through that.
I know its been beat to death and Qg is already the topic of the day but this post feels so scummy. Lack of conviction and resignation... ugh.
Day 3 -
Variation on a theme - attacking Lewwyn now, but all the points are still based on Q. There isn't any digging here, just re-writing the Q-narrative:
(February 23rd, 2015, 17:56)novice Wrote: I want to do two rereads, one with Q as scum and one with Q as town, to properly answer that, Gaz. I'm not sure I'll have time though, so I'll half-ass something now.
Q as scum: Lewwyn and Gaspar look scummy for not supporting a Q lynch on day 2. They half-heartedly attack each other and are both on Fenn along with Q in the first day 2 tally (5 on Q and 3 on Fenn). Adrien ended up wrong but helped push Q ahead of Fenn early on.
Q as town: Brick and Sunrise get scum points for supporting me. Jabbz for being the third day 2 wagon against 2 townies, BUT I agree with dtay's town read on Jabbz so we might have three townies and the scum are just making sure to keep the wagons nice and even. In which case a more full-assed analysis is called for.
I have general town reads on Dtay and you, so I'm not really considering you in either scenario. I lean neutral to town on Saul and Jabbz. I'm actually glad Rowain died as I was starting to mistrust him.
I think Lewwyn looks bad in either Q scenario, so I'll give him a spin. Still up for lynching Q, too, of course.
We do get more comments about other people at day 3 - he questions Gazglum [667], back to Q [672]. He calls out Lewwyn here:
(February 23rd, 2015, 20:21)novice Wrote:
(February 23rd, 2015, 19:54)Lewwyn Wrote: I was working hard yesterday to create discussion. Any discussion. If you felt SO strongly about Qg, why weren't you pushing? You were obviously not working hard at all. Only after the lynch happens do you jump out of the shadows to point the finger.
That is patently untrue, also already asked and answered.
(February 23rd, 2015, 18:05)novice Wrote:
(February 23rd, 2015, 17:17)Gazglum Wrote: Novice spent Day 1 arguing pretty strongly that Adrien was scum, but dumped him pretty much Day 2 to focus on Q (who to be fair, Novice was also after Day 1). His Day 2 was a bit lazy, if he was that sure Q was scum he could have pressured and questioned him more, tried to herd the crowd.
- Novice voted Matt to save Zak, then Q.
I spent all my available time pushing for his lynch, to the extent that I caught heat for tunnelling. Meanwhile you took the day off. What more do you want? /vent
But I don't see it as novice says. He didn't push for a Q lynch on day 2, as I already covered. He presented the Q case, and was content to let other people vote elsewhere. Don't tell me that Q's reveal changed your mind, because you sure didn't move your vote anywhere else.
There's more activity from novice, which generally looks better than his day 2.
But then the instant that someone else votes for Q, he's right back on board:
(February 24th, 2015, 09:55)novice Wrote:
(February 24th, 2015, 09:12)Lewwyn Wrote: I'm sorry novice. You were right.
(February 23rd, 2015, 23:23)Qgqqqqq Wrote: Jabbzs response here - while bullheaded - is in character. Novices' is not. novice Why are you being so inactive and passive about lynching me when you're this certain on me being lynched? These passive aggressive comments are picking at anything you could possibly use to scumfirm me. That's not how town novice plays.
Holy Crap Qg. What did you do copy and paste my argument and then change a few words like a cheating college student? I'm a teacher I can smell lazy plagiarism.
Qgqqqqq
You certainly know how to get me to stop voting for you.
Qgqqqqq
The bandwagon jumps on Q at this point, and novice posts again:
(February 24th, 2015, 18:56)novice Wrote: You know Gaspar, Q's claim could simply be the truth.
I understand people's uneasiness with the sudden consensus but what can you do.
If Sunrise tries to lurk through the entire day I'm all for lynching him instead. Well, as long as Q delurks, at least. Policy lynches ftw.
(February 25th, 2015, 06:48)novice Wrote: Q, I've never criticized you for not claiming your N2 result. You seem to be attributing all arguments against you to me. (My first mention of the N2 result was asking you for it just now because you seem to be going down, and you shouldn't be taking the information to the grave. Revealing just prior to deadline is fine with me.)
Q has delurked, so Sunrise089 for lurking.
The case is now about Q lurking?? And all he has is a case against Q and a policy for lurking? What happened to AdrienIer, somebody who novice thought was scum in day 1 but dropped in day 2. Novice explains that he put that case aside to push Q, but when the Q case gets dropped it appears AdrienIer would be a natural spot to comment on. But that appears to be forgotten too:
(February 24th, 2015, 17:04)novice Wrote:
(February 24th, 2015, 16:59)AdrienIer Wrote: First meaningful Gaspar post : main thing I'm keeping is the attack on Sunrise which feels real. I don't see them as being scumbuddies, complicated scum plot isn't to be ruled out completely but in this case I doubt it. It goes on for a few posts.
I'm not sure I follow - why would they have to be scumbuddies for Gaspar to be scum? This reads like you know Sunrise to be scum!?
No vote, no "aha, if not Q then Adrien", just an empty accusation with no follow-up.
Why not Gaspar, who he wrote this about?
(February 23rd, 2015, 20:24)novice Wrote:
(February 23rd, 2015, 19:27)Gaspar Wrote: Just wanted to comment on this - if Qg is scum, which I have always found plausible - I don't see how I get extra scum points for not supporting the lynch. Or at least, compared to anyone else who didn't support the lynch which, as it turns out, was a majority of the village.
Simply put, I expect better from you.
Likewise.
After that it's all posts about spinning the narrative for when Q flips town.
(February 25th, 2015, 10:17)novice Wrote: Well that is unfortunate that Lewwyn had to run off with his vote left on me. Unfortunate in the sense that it's very convenient for scum Lewwyn but also in line with town Lewwyn. So I kind of shot myself in the foot there if Lewwyn is scum.
I'm very conflicted about what to do here, it seems whatever I do is just self-incriminating, and I'm very aware of it too, which makes things worse. Qgqqqqq is a good lynch, but I realize that there's a good chance he flips town, in which case I'm mislynched next. If I express doubts about him that reflects poorly back on me since I pushed him so hard earlier. If I don't I'm suspected for tunneling. I have serious trust issues with Lewwyn (and to a lesser extent, Gaspar), so when they vote away from Qgqqqqq I suspect Q even more, and when they join me I start doubting a Q lynch. I guess I should have just kept tunneling Q but my fear is that scum have manipulated me, letting me push a town Q hard enough that when they finally stop working against it I have no way of escaping a Q wagon without looking scummy, and presto they have a double mislynch lined up. I would hate being played like that.
So that is what goes on behind my enigmatic facade, and as a consequence my instinct is to escape the conundrum by finding scum outside the q/lewwyn/gaspar trifecta. I don't know who that would be though, but I do know that Sunrise deserves to hang if he keeps lurking while I'm struggling with these conflicts. And if he flips scum I can breathe again.
If Sunrise makes an appearance I may just have to take my chances on a Q lynch. Or maybe this post self-incriminates further and I'll just have to vote for self defense. That would solve my conundrum too.
(February 25th, 2015, 12:30)novice Wrote: And actually, I do think Gaspar and Lewwyn have had their townish moments today, I'm just terrified that I'm being manipulated into doing the scum's dirty work.
tl;dr version - there's no hunting going on by novice. He's fixated on Q to the point where he forgets other cases, even cases he makes earlier. All his arguing is in the form of building around a narrative that Q is scum. He doesn't comment on the day 2 candidates outside an early push for Q, and then tries to spin it after the fact into making it sound like scum have managed to save their buddy Q. He tries to give the appearance of looking elsewhere by voting for sunrise for lurking, but what happened to his earlier suspicions of AdrienIer? He posts twice after about suspicious things that AdrienIer does but never votes or pushes that case again. And at the end he even changes the bar, trying to re-write that he was pushing Q for lurking, and that when Q does post that he should vote sunrise. But after sunrise posts it's back to Q, so I guess lurking really wasn't why he was voting Q.
Pretty sure Novice is our scum.
Plus, look at all his posting today. He's trying to make everything circumstantial. He's not attacking me based on posting or my previous days cases, he's saying that scum bussed Mattimeo to clear me day 1. Did you know day 1 and 2 he was defending me? How did he go from that conclusion to this one? I think it's more likely that novice voted Mattimeo to score town points when he knew, as he put it, that Mattimeo was getting heat all day.
*****
@dtay - you're not the only one whose suspected AdrienIer this game, but we aren't able to tie down all scenarios so we need to make sure that we pick the play that has the best odds for success. If Adrien's played a blinder and we lose to that then I'll congratulate him in the lurker thread after; but i find it far more probable that one of novice/brick are lying. That's why I have AdrienIer as heavy town lean. But don't get caught up in WIFOM. Also, see below...
*****
I'm burying the lead, but AdrienIer slept soundly in his bed on Night 3. Did not do the night kill that night. I know this because I'm the town day reporter. Looker into Blood Crazed Eyes, so the title goes.
That's another reason why I was willing to wait on the Brick/Novice/Adrien question. I feel most confident about novice as scum -- his day 2 and day 3 inconsistencies against Q are just bad; his scum-hunting is practically non-existant -- and I wanted to cover our backside with the ability in case Brick had misjudged AdrienIer and he was the killing scum. Brick's ability looks at 2 days, so I can't 100% say that isn't the case. But it looks really damn unlikely. I don't think Adrien can be considered scum at all, unless Brick is lying and is scum, and in that case there's a tiny chance of a gambit to mislynch novice, have the retribution fall on Brick, and hope town clears Adrien. However, that is just unlikely. Also, novice has just played the scummier game of the three.
Maybe I should have used it on novice anyway, but if I had gotten a null read I still would suspect novice as scum, because novice has played a scummy game. The only 'aha' moment i can have is if i catch someone in an out-and-out lie.
The biggest advice I can give at this point is not to get too caught up in meta. I think we simply need to lynch the scummiest player. I've held off really discussing my opinions on Brick and novice, mostly because for me they are the two scummiest players left. Unfortunately I just haven't had the time with all the goings on here to really buckle down and compile the posts into one post. But let's start.
I think the case against novice has been gone through a bunch. If you want to go back and look at my initial day 3 post against Novice and those interactions with him, thats where I talk about my Day 2 novice read and why he's so suspicious. That still stands. However later I switched to Qg off of novice because Qg parroted me and broke my scumdar. But then Qg posted a nice big post and novice immediately posted:
(February 25th, 2015, 06:48)novice Wrote: Q, I've never criticized you for not claiming your N2 result. You seem to be attributing all arguments against you to me. (My first mention of the N2 result was asking you for it just now because you seem to be going down, and you shouldn't be taking the information to the grave. Revealing just prior to deadline is fine with me.)
Q has delurked, so Sunrise089 for lurking.
Which is crazy since he spent the entire day 2 on Qg based on this vote:
(February 20th, 2015, 15:40)novice Wrote: Rereading again, Matt was in pretty serious trouble all day really. With Zak and myself (town) suspecting Q, it seems odd that nobody tried to get a Q lynch started. Circumstantial, I know, but still.
Q, since when has Zak been opposed to policy lynching lurkers? I find that very much in Zak's character. Your Zak push seems very insincerely founded.
Qgqqqqq
The consistency is very lacking.
What follows was this post:
(February 25th, 2015, 10:17)novice Wrote: Well that is unfortunate that Lewwyn had to run off with his vote left on me. Unfortunate in the sense that it's very convenient for scum Lewwyn but also in line with town Lewwyn. So I kind of shot myself in the foot there if Lewwyn is scum.
I'm very conflicted about what to do here, it seems whatever I do is just self-incriminating, and I'm very aware of it too, which makes things worse. Qgqqqqq is a good lynch, but I realize that there's a good chance he flips town, in which case I'm mislynched next. If I express doubts about him that reflects poorly back on me since I pushed him so hard earlier. If I don't I'm suspected for tunneling. I have serious trust issues with Lewwyn (and to a lesser extent, Gaspar), so when they vote away from Qgqqqqq I suspect Q even more, and when they join me I start doubting a Q lynch. I guess I should have just kept tunneling Q but my fear is that scum have manipulated me, letting me push a town Q hard enough that when they finally stop working against it I have no way of escaping a Q wagon without looking scummy, and presto they have a double mislynch lined up. I would hate being played like that.
So that is what goes on behind my enigmatic facade, and as a consequence my instinct is to escape the conundrum by finding scum outside the q/lewwyn/gaspar trifecta. I don't know who that would be though, but I do know that Sunrise deserves to hang if he keeps lurking while I'm struggling with these conflicts. And if he flips scum I can breathe again.
If Sunrise makes an appearance I may just have to take my chances on a Q lynch. Or maybe this post self-incriminates further and I'll just have to vote for self defense. That would solve my conundrum too.
Which again is very strange to me. The best defense is just playing. This is talking about why he's not playing.
I honestly think novice is scum and is the best lynch independent of Brick's claim.
Brick is semi suspicious, but I actually think his waffling on Zak and Matt Day 1 is kind of villagery. That said, based on everything Brick is my #2 suspect! If Brick hadn't claimed I would push for a novice>Brick lynch based solely on scumminess.
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
You all told Lou to be careful. His crowing of an ancient dashboard confessional would summon dark things; things of break ups and of despair and of regrettable fashion decisions. But in his victory, he was heedless.
Now his hair is everywhere, screaming infidelities, not taking it so well...
Lewwyn died. He was a fine, upstanding citizen of the town of Kingsport.
Alignment PM:
Citizen- You are a fine, upstanding citizen of the fair town of
Kingsport. Maybe. Well, you have a few hiccups from time to time. And
your family tree hides a few slightly knotty branches. And your dreams
have been strange and yet somehow more real of late. But you
definitely are on the side of living, breathing, and your preferred
geometries are strictly Euclidean. Something is up in your town,
something dark and weird, and you are fairly certain those responsible
lurk among you in the town hall. You win when all of the monsters are
dead. And by win, we mean you might be driven to the brink of
gibbering insanity, but you are reasonably certain that once the
monsters are all dead the entire world won't hurtle in the void this
month.
Role PM:
Sleeper in the Bed (vanilla)- You sleep in bed at night. It’s comfy.
If only you and me and dead people know hex, then only deaf people know hex.
