I think it's possible there is 1 scum left. I also think its possible there are two scum left. I also think its possible that both novice and Brick are scum, though much more unlikely.
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
Not much time today but stop misrepresenting me novice.
Your play felt lazy at that time, you were short about reasoning when you have it, and some of that switching was incomprehensible. Just cause you move doesn't mean it's productive.
I did have more of a town read on you before, and that was because you were in Q. That only changed after he flipped. If you're arguing that having an argument that I like should make your overall play seem town to me, that's wrong. Scum can come up with good arguments too, especially good players like you.
How is that either or hedging? I feel pretty confident at the time that Q is scum if that turns out to not be the case, then I feel confident that novice is scum, mainly because besides the Q argument you sounded very scum to me. That's just a logical progression, not being noncommittal.
About mattimeo, it felt like with the high votes on him most of the end of the day, that that was most likely what happened. The only way it wouldn't have would be if Lewwyn and Saul were scum, which seemed pretty unlikely. Are you going to argue that there weren't one or two scum on mattimeo at the end?
Yeah OK, Lewwyn, I can see how you felt that Sauldicator helped you push through a Gaspar lynch. That was high quality play, by the way. Serious props.
My suspicion of Saul is based on reskimming day 1-3, I looked over day 4 now. I think he is still a likely BRick accomplice, but I'm perfectly happy to delay that discussion until day 6 (if we get there). Day 4 review of Saul below.
This was Saul's first day 4 post where he voted Gaspar.
(February 26th, 2015, 15:35)Doctor Saul Wrote:
(February 26th, 2015, 13:57)Jabbz Wrote: Then I just have to figure out if it's good glum or bad glum talking...
Well, I think that question got answered rather quickly.
I'm happy with novice or gaspar today. Prefer novice for all the same reasons as yesterday.
Gaspar, what do you think?
You can see he actually prefers lynching me. This read to me like Saul was getting the obligatory Gaspar suspicion out of the way so that he can later be convinced by BRick's claim and/or a Gaspar defense post to switch onto me.
(February 27th, 2015, 09:46)Doctor Saul Wrote: if brick is scum he doesn't even need the role to know who did the night kill.
Lewwyn, if you're more confident in Gaspar bring scum than novice, who do you suspect most as a scum accomplice (assuming novice is town)? I can see a Gaspar-Novice team with yesterday's play, but I'm having trouble seeing why Gaspar sticks his neck out on the Q lynch if they aren't teamed up.
The post above and the one below don't exactly wholeheartedly embrace your plan. He still seems to prefer lynching me.
(February 27th, 2015, 10:51)Doctor Saul Wrote:
(February 27th, 2015, 10:03)Lewwyn Wrote: Listen here's the main point. If Brick is scum what's his motivation for doing this "gambit" at the beginning of the day? The only one under real heat is Gaspar. So if Brick is scum Gaspar is also scum. If Brick is town then that does not mean Gaspar is not town. It does mean novice or Adrien is also scum.
What it comes down to for me is that Gaspar is the very best lynch for town today because independent of Brick's alignment he is the most likely scum.
The town must lynch Gaspar today.
What do you think about novice independent of Brick's reveal?
My concern about a Gaspar lynch today is we've kicked the Brick-Novice can down the road for tomorrow, regardless of how Gaspar flips.
I won't have time for it yet, but there were some posts by novice yesterday I wanted to re-examine.
And at risk of muddying the waters even more ... AdrienIer, how did you end up voting for Q? I was skimming back to the end of yesterday and I know we had a back-and-forth about your voting Q and then backing out ... and then you end back up on Q again? How is that?
Here's where he pushes your plan through though, and it deserves town points.
(February 27th, 2015, 15:29)Doctor Saul Wrote: Guys, I gotta agree with Lewwyn. Before Brick's reveal Gaspar and Novice were my two biggest scum leans. Gaspar has been coasting through non-committal to anything. I haven't seen anything from Gaspar today to change that opinion, and just haven't seen anything from novice. I've been duped by both of them in the past when they were scum and this feels a lot like those instances. Lewwyn's been the one whose been trying to rally discussion and a lot of his questioning had lined up with questions I found myself asking at the time. So to me it is far more likely that town Lewwyn is trying to rally the troops and scum is trying to coast by. (And hell, if the opposite is true then we're probably lost anyway ...)
We've got two or three people who haven't even voted yet.
Jabbz, we have 24 hrs left. Vote your gut now, evaluate the vote count later
Notice though that this is 24 hours into the day, and BRick's claim has failed to kick off an avalanche of novice votes. At the same time Gaspar is still a major suspect. It's also unclear how people feel about BRick vs. me, so if Saul tries to make day 4 about that he risks getting BRick lynched.
Anyway I see BRick has posted, let me address that next.
(March 1st, 2015, 10:53)BRickAstley Wrote: Not much time today but stop misrepresenting me novice.
Your play felt lazy at that time, you were short about reasoning when you have it, and some of that switching was incomprehensible. Just cause you move doesn't mean it's productive.
I did have more of a town read on you before, and that was because you were in Q. That only changed after he flipped. If you're arguing that having an argument that I like should make your overall play seem town to me, that's wrong. Scum can come up with good arguments too, especially good players like you.
Okay, so you felt I was coming up with good arguments? But I was still lazy and unproductive?
Also, you only suspected me after Q flipped? So why did you say that "I wanna relook at novice too, because while he does share targeting you, he also feels pretty lazy". You were going to relook because you wanted to enlist me in the Active Villagers Society?
(March 1st, 2015, 10:53)BRickAstley Wrote: How is that either or hedging? I feel pretty confident at the time that Q is scum if that turns out to not be the case, then I feel confident that novice is scum, mainly because besides the Q argument you sounded very scum to me. That's just a logical progression, not being noncommittal.
It's not the either or that is hedging. It's the phrase "if you do flip town that seems to me to pretty well indicate novice as potential scum", where you include no less than four hedging modifiers. ("seems to", "pretty well", "indicate", "potential")
(March 1st, 2015, 10:53)BRickAstley Wrote: About mattimeo, it felt like with the high votes on him most of the end of the day, that that was most likely what happened. The only way it wouldn't have would be if Lewwyn and Saul were scum, which seemed pretty unlikely. Are you going to argue that there weren't one or two scum on mattimeo at the end?
So to be clear, you're saying that what most likely happened is that Mattimeo said "go ahead and bus me" to his scum buddies. And that this is how you felt on day 3. (That is an entirely different prospect from there being one or two scum on Mattimeo at the end.) If that is how you felt, why did Q start a last minute run on Zak on day one? Seriously, why on earth would he do that if Mattimeo had said "go ahead and bus me"?
(March 1st, 2015, 04:11)Jabbz Wrote: I'm not sure how you missed it, but I am talking about the possibility that Brick is lying about his claim that he checked novice, adrien, and gaz, and got positive results for a killer.
Ok, you're talking about being "not 100% convinced" by Brick's claim. That's fine, but you address that point to Lewwyn, which still completely baffles me.
Lewwyn says this in post 1055:
(February 28th, 2015, 15:40)Lewwyn Wrote: So the question now is if Brick is lying or telling the truth. If he's telling the truth at least one of novice and Adrien are scum. If he's lying he's scum (I wouldn't preclude novice still being scum). I think we all need to weigh in on this tonight before the night is over.
...Given all this I submit Adrien removed from the Brick-novice-Adrien equation of the Brick claim, leaving us with Brick and novice.
I'm going to read a bit more before I post on novice and Brick, but I also want to add that Adrien's townie-ness is possibly a point in favor of Brick being town since he would want to pick the most townie person as the third person up against novice. However I guess scum would do that too to make the claim seem more viable so that might be a null tell.
I'm cutting some, but I believe I've left in any mention of Brick. First paragraph, Lewwyn takes no position on Brick vs Novice's guity and is completely ambivalent. Second paragraph he addresses a potential third option, and excludes it. Still ambivalent. Third paragraph he adds a wrinkle that could sway him towards trusting Brick over Novice but decides upon further thought that it's a null tell, so he's again left ambivalent.
Ok, next Lewwyn post, 1057, right before you replied @him:
(February 28th, 2015, 16:01)Lewwyn Wrote: Day 2/3 is going to be very revealing on the reread I think. Here's something I think might help clear Jabbz, or at the very least give him a townie lean:
[makes case using Gaspar post, concludes...]
I cannot see Jabbz as scum.
Well that makes me a bit happy. Narrow down the suspects outside of Brick and novice a bit.
So Lewwyn concludes that Jabbz is probably town, and then returns to the Brick/novice issue which he has still expressed no lean on.
Now you post a GG to Gaspar, and then reply to Lewwyn, quoted in full:
(February 28th, 2015, 16:44)Jabbz Wrote: @Lewwyn thanks for the love. I know I won't be killed tonight, because, as usual, I look scummy, and in this game, I'm more than scummy enough to keep around as a punching bag on the next/last day. I'm not 100% convinced about the Brick thing. Looks like I'll be doing some rereads.
Thanks for the love - makes sense, strong town lean Lewwyn has just given you a strong town lean.
I won't be killed tonight because I look scummy - lots of people say this sort of thing. Gaspar did recently, but I think it's null.
Not 100% convinced about the Brick thing - This is what puzzles me. You are replying to Lewwyn. Lewwyn has taken no position on Brick. The only analysis on Brick Lewwyn has done is to conclude certain things based on whether he lied about his night action. I don't see a flaw in Lewwyn's argument there, so I don't think "not being convinced" about that makes much sense. Which leaves me worrying you mis-read Lewwyn to have taken more of a position on Brick's trustworthiness than he really did, and are trying to get in an anti-Brick and hence pro-novice point.
Looks like I'll be re-reading - makes sense, Lewwyn has said the same.
Anyways, I'm not looking to push you on Day 5, but while everyone is already aware of the novice/brick stuff, I wanted to get this recorded before nightfall.
What in the name of the golden ones are you trying to push on me Sunrise? The FIRST SENTENCE of your FIRST QUOTE from Lewwyn says "So the question now is if Brick is lying or telling the truth." You're being sketchy as hell here mate. It was as good a place as any to let it be known that I acknowledged that Brick's claim is important, that people had addressed my concerns about it possibly being a gambit, and that I wasn't entirely sure whether I bought the claim or not. Since that pretty much guides a large part of today's discussion, it was important to acknowledge it.
Now what confuses me, is why the biggest lurker of the game would try to make some odd day 4 (5?) case on me. Like, really confused.
(February 20th, 2015, 15:40)novice Wrote: Rereading again, Matt was in pretty serious trouble all day really.
Why do you think it's unlikely he told scum to bus him? And I'm re-reading you right now, and I have to agree with Brick. You've been very lazy. More details in that post
I don't really understand Sunrise's arg against Jabbz here. It seems like at worst a misleadingly placed sentence, not sure why it's indicative of scumminess.
And agree with crossposted Saul post. I stated it above, but there are two diametrically opposed possible explanations for scum votes on Matt, early votes to build cred or late votes to bus. Only some really really difficult to know middle is difficult for scum, if space even exists between the two of them.
Additionally the first one also can explain scum votes on scum.
Day 2 I'd be fine reading into d1 votes since we don't have much else to go on, at this point I think d1 is worth minor points at best. Not worthless, but easily overridden by later day actions.
Like specific example - vote count was this when Gaspar switched, pretty clearly imo knowing he would be bussing Matt since Matt hadn't run away with the day yet. Not also that Saul was leading earlier that day until Gaz and Adrien joined on Matt.
With 2 known villagers, 1 very very likely villager, and w/e Jabbz is on Saul, if Gaspar and Matt were actively trying to be on the villager they wanted to mislynch they should have been on Saul, who was even leading before this and could easily have passed Matt at this point. Instead they're off on Sunrise. Presumably because they don't want to be party to a mislynch if they don't have to so want their votes in random places.
Except if at this point they're just hoping the village mislynches on their own and not trying to actively push it, then we don't really learn anything about the alignment of the person they're on. Could be a backup villager in case saul collapses, could be a scum to create deep cover, we just know.
