WW 36 - Horrors in Kingsport [Game Thread]

[novice]

Those are actually good points from Saul and dtay. Saul on BRick's towniness, dtay on why BRick's scan doesn't make sense as a scum gambit. The reason it could be a scum gambit though is that BRick would "know" that Adrien is scum once I flip town. And thus Gaspar's lynch could be further delayed.

OK, it's not like I have any town cred or votes to lose by flip-flopping again, so let's give Adrien a spin.

[novice]

About Saul's claim.

I'm burying the lead, but AdrienIer slept soundly in his bed on Night 3. Did not do the night kill that night. I know this because I'm the town day reporter. Looker into Blood Crazed Eyes, so the title goes.

That's another reason why I was willing to wait on the Brick/Novice/Adrien question. I feel most confident about novice as scum -- his day 2 and day 3 inconsistencies against Q are just bad; his scum-hunting is practically non-existant -- and I wanted to cover our backside with the ability in case Brick had misjudged AdrienIer and he was the killing scum. Brick's ability looks at 2 days, so I can't 100% say that isn't the case. But it looks really damn unlikely.

Maybe I should have used it on novice anyway, but if I had gotten a null read I still would suspect novice as scum, because novice has played a scummy game. The only 'aha' moment i can have is if i catch someone in an out-and-out lie.

The thing I wanted to check up on was this. Saul is using day 4 information to justify an action that gave him a night 3 result. He's saying he used his ability to check if BRick had misjudged AdrienIer, so he clearly used his ability on day 4. And the result he got was that AdrienIer went nowhere on night 3. So it was confusing, but looking at how the night reporter works, it gives information from the night before as well, so it's plausible. Also having to choose a target at day who could end up lynched before the action triggers seemed like bad role design.

Nevertheless, I did a bit of fishing to see if Saul would trip up.

Saul, a question for you: If your ability had unlimited shots, who would you have targeted if you had to choose between Zakalwe and Mattimeo?

For your hypothetical, I'm guessing you mean if they were both alive? I would need more information to make a choice; I suspected zak more this game, but I've never been have felt good about being able to read Mattimeo. I've mislynched him in too many games. Considering all I knew at that time I guess zak, but depending on how I felt about other people, if Mattimeo was the only unknown going against a lot of people I felt town on I might just scan Mattimeo and use it to check my blindspot while I keep pursuing the case against zak.

My point of course had nothing to do with Zak and Mattimeo other than seeing if he said anything indicating that the ability works on the night following the day instead of the night preceding the day.

I meant if you had to choose on day 1.

Saul, if you had to choose between Zak and Mattimeo on day one, who would you have targetted?

He didn't trip up, unfortunately he never answered the final question either, preferring to laugh in my face. But yeah, the way Saul implicitly describes his role is entirely plausible. I'm mainly posting this to explain my role fishing.

[AdrienIer]

I've probably been too silent today, but the day lynch will tell us so many things that I didn't want to speculate before that. I'll be home ~5h before deadline to answer these new attacks.

[dtay]

The thing novice gets town points for - pushing and making cases to a far greater extent than Brick or adrien.
Thing he loses town points for - err, well we ended up lynching townies

...

Problem is that that is basically true of every living player except Saul, substantive personal cases made have ended up as mislynches. (Gaz, lew, and Saul get the town points for the gaspar lynch in my mind, but 2 of them are dead.) So we're mostly stuck on the quality of case, and I think novice is up there, actually making reads. None of the actual reads themselves really seem impossible to do as scum, but still harder than not doing them.

Earlier things:
Lew stuff = some scum points given lew ended up super town-y.
Weird flipflop feels like actual cold feet to me, so towny.

The obvious scummy thing about novice's recent play is not voting for Gaspar.

Gaspar's looking bad but it's just weird to me that you're all voting outside of me, Adrien and Brick. Not going to object too loudly if the alternative is lynching me, but it's especially odd that both Adrien and Brick prefer Gaspar over a 50/50. I mean, we're going to have to get the A/B/N choice right eventually anyway to win.

BRick, you said earlier today that you were starting to have doubts about Adrien - and yet I haven't seen you reevaluating him at all.

If you guys want to procrastinate, lynching Sunrise is again an excellent way of doing so.

It just occured to me - an A/B/N choice is 33% odds for others (although there could be more than one scum there), whereas any lynch is 3/8 odds of hitting scum. So maybe voting outside of ABN isn't so weird after all. I'm still sticking with my 50/50 on BRick though.

Except maybe I'm weird, but the math stuff is persuasive to me. From town-novice's perspective, knowing he is town, the brick/adrien situation offers realy easy targets. I sort this into the same catagory as say adrien's early waffling - convenient for scum but also very reasonable for town.

tl;dr version - there's no hunting going on by novice. He's fixated on Q to the point where he forgets other cases, even cases he makes earlier. All his arguing is in the form of building around a narrative that Q is scum. He doesn't comment on the day 2 candidates outside an early push for Q, and then tries to spin it after the fact into making it sound like scum have managed to save their buddy Q. He tries to give the appearance of looking elsewhere by voting for sunrise for lurking, but what happened to his earlier suspicions of AdrienIer? He posts twice after about suspicious things that AdrienIer does but never votes or pushes that case again. And at the end he even changes the bar, trying to re-write that he was pushing Q for lurking, and that when Q does post that he should vote sunrise. But after sunrise posts it's back to Q, so I guess lurking really wasn't why he was voting Q.

Not really convicned by these arguments. The amount of hunting done by novice day 2 is still way higher than the hunting done by a ton of the remaining players. (more than adrien, for example). And I think you're misrepresenting the lurker vote for Q etc, novice clearly had other reasons to vote for Qqqqqq, just also wanted lurkers to be forced to contribute.

"Towny to scummy ranking: Dtay, Sunrise, AdrienIer, Jabbz, Saul, BRick.

Sunrise on here was weird to me. Novice, why is sunrise 2nd most towny?

net - novice could be scum. Even after read through this situation is very much a "play the balance of probabilities" moment to me.

Conclusion after all 3: I like the args on Adrien more. Pretty much I think most of the scummy things said about novice are more true of Adrien than they are of novice (though still somewhat true of novice), novice has made more concrete attempts at reads, and I the things people award adrien major town points for seem minor at best to me.

[dtay]

Cross post with things between my last 2 posts

[novice]

Some additional reasons AdrienIer could be scum:

Or maybe I should be voting AdrienIer for making two implicit assumptions indicating inside knowledge - there being 3 scum left and Gaspar being scum. I mean, I can understand you suspecting Gaspar as scum with me, but why whould he be scum with BRick?

3 scum left makes sense in this setup BTW. And Gaspar being scum was my n°1 option before BRick's reveal. So yeah I make those two assumptions.

I can see some dangerous possibilities, but I'd like your opinion on the matter.

What possibilities do you see?

I think this setup could have a 1-shot vig (based on BRick's role), and scum would only need 1 more dead townie if he's on their side. Remember roles are mixed up so even though 1-shot vig is usually town it doesn't have to be.

He makes two implicit assumptions that scum can only know with certainty. And then adds a third by implicitly assuming that BRick's role is true when speculating on a 1-shot vig.

I'm going with Gaspar because it only delays the inevitable decision about us, and I think an additional day of things to analyze will be useful.

Saul can wait until you're dead, novice, I don't mind if he wants to explain more right now but we're in no hurry. Sorry for the lack of posts recently I've been busy and even when available the prospect of rereading Jabbz Dtay Saul BRick and Sunrise (or even some of them) has made me avoid the thread a little.
I'm pretty sure lynching novice is the right choice here, a BRick trick doesn't make sense if novice is town.

He thinks another day for analysis will be useful, but when the day arrives we're in no hurry and he's avoiding the thread due the prospect of analysing it.

[novice]

"Towny to scummy ranking: Dtay, Sunrise, AdrienIer, Jabbz, Saul, BRick.

Sunrise on here was weird to me. Novice, why is sunrise 2nd most towny?

5th least scummy if you like - but he gets town points for Mattimeo lynch on day 1 (Sunrise summarized it neatly himself in one of his rare posts) and for being ganged up on by Gaspar and Mattimeo, as pointed out by Lewwyn IIRC. Also, he's engaging with me.

[dtay]

Those are actually good points from Saul and dtay. Saul on BRick's towniness, dtay on why BRick's scan doesn't make sense as a scum gambit. The reason it could be a scum gambit though is that BRick would "know" that Adrien is scum once I flip town. And thus Gaspar's lynch could be further delayed.

OK, it's not like I have any town cred or votes to lose by flip-flopping again, so let's give Adrien a spin.

Somehow didn't think of this.

Specifically the "The reason it could be a scum gambit though is that BRick would "know" that Adrien is scum once I flip town." line.

The brick statement is a lot less binding once novice flips town. And delaying the gaspar lynch one more day would result in scum victory if there's a final scum.

It would mean though a gaspar, brick, adrien docket for a gaspar/brick scum team which looks dangerous. Is that + a town-novice lynch better or worse than gaspar -> town-novice (what I think seemed predictable before brick released scan).

This def improves viability of the gambit since the gaspar delay has more utility. You get a chance at a quick knock out punch. But the backfire chance of it just getting Brick needlessly lynched still feels large. It seems meaningfully worse to me though than racking up actual bus points with gaspar->town-novice.

Better than I cast it as before though.

[AdrienIer]

Quick question : haven't read it all in details on phone but it seems that if this is a great scum gambit from Brick and I why are you not lynching Brick who would be the brain of the operation ?

[dtay]

Point about the gambit was the best explanation for why a scan-gambit would make sense is you are both scum. Not that it is the necessary explanation. The brick=town adrien=scum solution is also viable in my mind. But you flipping scum would substantially increase how scummy I thought brick was, because the arguments for the scan being a bad gambit become far less persuasive.

Compare possible novice=scum brick=scum pair, a scan-gambit isn't nearly as useful because it's essentially just an elaborate bus. It isn't likely at all to also come along with a free mislynch AND the bus.