WW 36 - Horrors in Kingsport [Game Thread]

[Jabbz]

A scum brick is basically setting himself up to Bus gaspar (either that same day or the next), but what is the point of bussing gaspar if he's about to blow all his town credibility with a fake scan on a town? The two don't fit together well at all.

This is basically what I came up with when I analyzed the situation this morning. Theoretically I suppose it would work, especially with a deep cover final scum member, but ... why? It seems likely they could get just as many townies to kill each other without the gambit, given that we really have a very limited idea of who might be scum after novice is gone. Or at least I have limited ideas, maybe someone else has more people on their radar.

[Jabbz]

He makes two implicit assumptions that scum can only know with certainty. And then adds a third by implicitly assuming that BRick's role is true when speculating on a 1-shot vig.

So one of your reasons for Brick being scum is that he speculated on a possibility setup? Further, this argument urges caution. If scum had a 1SV they surely wouldn't want that on town's radar.

[sunrise089]

I'm caught up reading but I've got two work things due before lunch, so I won't be able to post much before then.

I'm leaning Novice , not so much from the Brick attack, but because Lewwyn pushed for him and because I remain confused by his play at the end of Day 3.

Thanks Dtay!

You're the only one left now sunrise. Care to lay your cards on the table?

I am non-vanilla, with a passive ability. I've not targeted anyone or left my house at night or anything of that sort. I would prefer not describing the exact details of my ability since it won't offer any additional investigative help.

FYI we have exactly 7 certain+claimed abilities, and 8 vanilla players. Which, unfortunately, is perfectly consistent with Commodore's promise that the game was 'majority vanilla.' If any of the claimed vanillas (Novice, Jabbz, Dtay, or Adrien) end up having an ability though that means one of Brick, Pindicator, or I am lying.

[Commodore]

Tally as of post 1153:

5 votes: Novice (Doctor Saul, BRickAstley, AdrienIer, Jabbz, sunrise089)
2 votes: Adrien (novice, dtay)

Voting history:

Novice

BRickAstley

novice

novice

Novice

novice

Adrien

Adrien

Novice

[novice]

He makes two implicit assumptions that scum can only know with certainty. And then adds a third by implicitly assuming that BRick's role is true when speculating on a 1-shot vig.

So one of your reasons for Brick being scum is that he speculated on a possibility setup? Further, this argument urges caution. If scum had a 1SV they surely wouldn't want that on town's radar.

Actually those were reasons for Adrien being scum.

[novice]

Sunrise, my day three play may be confusing, but it makes no sense as scum.

[novice]

BRick, if you're town, listen to this.

Today, I'm mislynched. Dtay is nightkilled. You'll be mislynched tomorrow and we lose.

By contrast, we can lynch Adrien today. If he's scum that's great, and we both gain town cred. If he's town, you will still be able to lynch me tomorrow (we have seen that I lose a me vs. you showdown), and you have one more day to find the last scum.

So lynching Adrien is the safe play for you.

[Jabbz]

He makes two implicit assumptions that scum can only know with certainty. And then adds a third by implicitly assuming that BRick's role is true when speculating on a 1-shot vig.

So one of your reasons for Brick being scum is that he speculated on a possibility setup? Further, this argument urges caution. If scum had a 1SV they surely wouldn't want that on town's radar.

Actually those were reasons for Adrien being scum.

Yeah, sorry. So much of the convo has been about you and brick, my brain got stuck in that gear.

[AdrienIer]

Ok so it all started with this :

Claim as in role claim? Sleeper.

Gonna be contributing much more over next 18 hours, parents were visiting this weekend (left this morning) which limited engagement time and made a full reread hard (i have been keeping up with new posts though).

I find parsing this situation with confidence difficult. I'm partially through Brick/Novice/Adrien rereads in light of new situation, my tentative conclusion is novice like seemingly everyone else but I am way less confident in this than the rest of you seem to be.

This post does not contain awareness of anything from the last page until sunrise(Doesn't include anything from this last page)

Will have actual post with like, logic and stuff up soon.

Interesting thing I don't think I've seen noted but could have missed: Adrien was the only person to join Brick on Novice yesterday instead of the gaspar lynch. Scum pair trying to save Gaspar? Scum jumping on town Brick's mistaken ID'ing of novice to try to save Gaspar? Or just town mistake (possible with either town or scum brick, though changes novice alignment thoughts).

18h ago novice was very confident and his BRick vote was very strong (see post 1128). After this post things start to change a little. It all starts with dtay noticing that I voted novice at first yesterday, which he proceeds to turn into a great scum tell in the following posts.

Adrien
Most of what I said yesterday applies, I have a hard time getting a read on him and I don't think the Matt vote earns as many town points as the rest of you do.

I've been avoiding the discussion about that Matt vote timing because I didn't want to wave it around saying "look what a great townie move I did". Do you realize that my vote on him changed everything ? He was tied with Saul, it was just as likely that Saul would get lynched (it just needed Matt to post a little for him to stay alive most likely). Right after I voted for him Gaspar joined the wagon : he must have seen the possibility of a bus on Matt. If I was scum it would mean that team scum decided to put Matt from tied at 3 votes to clearly in the lead at 5 votes in a matter of 10mn, 3h before lynch time. Suicidal much ?

Adding things from the last day phase:

Adrien was pretty early to attack Gaspar yesterday. How town-y that is depends on when scum decided to let Gaspar die in the day, but it's certainly points in his favor.

However, he then says "Time to lead a crusade dude, make a stand and lead the town to victory. At least make a stand and curse at the town for not following you. I'll be kind and not vote for you right at the start to give you a chance to do this." which preserves flexibility and makes me skeptical of how many town points I can give him for this. Imagine a world where Saul and Lew don't subsequently jump on Gaspar, then Adrien's post here could be walked back if Gaspar subsequently started a strong push on some town player. It lets him get his town points if it looks like Gaspar is going down while not being forced to stick on Gaspar if the town doesn't make a gaspar lynch inevitable.

Is this independently scummy then? Somewhat? It's a rationally possible town position, it's just that flexible beliefs are convenient if one is scum. An unfortunate fact if one actually has flexible beliefs, and given the information constraints of this game they're probably pretty likely. (See: this very read on Adrien).

This is then followed by a novice vote. Reasonable in and of itself given brick released his scan between Gaspar post and this. But certainly convenient for scum since I don’t think it was obvious at this point that the gaspar lynch was going to happen regardless.

A few posts later says he suspects a Brick/gaspar scum pair (as did gazglum). This feels weird given his implicit trust in the Brick scan in switching to voting novice. If he is convinced of Gaspar’s scumminess (first post of the day), thinks Gaspar/Brick is likely, then why would Brick’s scan on novice sway him to vote for novice? It feels very at odds with the novice vote.

So my read of adrien is near-net-null reads until yesterday, and I find his play yesterday to be scummy in the sense it is very convenient for scum to do, though not inexplicable as town. The most straight out scummy thing is that Brick/Gaspar line while voting for novice, which is very weird to me.

I was reasonably confident at Gaspar being scum but I distinctly felt that he was not giving everything in this game and that it could have all come from not caring. So I wanted to give him one last chance (I intended to give him 24h to do better until I voted for him, but wasn't going to say it like that to not sound like I was giving an ultimatum).

Thus the Novice thing was perfect ! It gave me a 50/50 choice to make while waiting for the Gaspar stuff. Novice having been much scummier than BRick throughout the game the vote was a no-brainer. It gave me things to do while giving Gaspar some breathing space. I even considered staying on Novice and leaving Gaspar for the next day, which would have been even better. It would have given town Gaspar a real chance to redeem himself.

If Adrien isn't near-town dtay how does that make you lean re: Novice vs. Brick?

Noticed I never responsed to this. Uhh, really hard to say. Adrien being scummier means I think there's a lower chance Brick is scum who scanned 3 townies to get a mislynch.

BUT, an Adrien/Brick scumpair not completely THAT hard to imagine, hoping for gambit of lynch town-novice -> lynch one of adrien and brick and the other comes out seeming super towny for 3 person endgame.

In fact, this really deserves to be added as a note to my evaluation of the scan. If both adrien AND brick are scum the gambit is a lot more sensible for that very reason. A pretty complicated gambit, but brick=scum already necessitates the existence of a gambit, and this one seems the most logical to me.

So you have competing pressures on the brick/novice binary... which is hard to resolve. Scummier adrien in my mind probably increases desire to vote for brick, since I think finding an explanation for WHY the scan-gambit would happen at all is really important to telling a brick=scum story.

Not much to respond to that because yes technically there's no argument against a BRick+me pair. We've hardly ever interacted all game. All I can say is that the story from BRick's perspective makes sense, while the story against him involves a complicated plot that no one can really explain. Two or three people said they put me in their super town column, and BRick was pondering on the Lewwyn vs Novice case when he made his choice so couldn't use Lewwyn as his third guy.

You've been saying that BRick seems town for hours now. You can't just give arguments against me, then arguments in favor of BRick, and then give another argument against me that involve BRick being scum. You have to chose your side, but if BRick is town then this argument is moot. If BRick is scum then... lynch him maybe ? And then don't count me as town on the last day ? If this was the situation you'd be better off having no-experience me against you on the last day rather than Machiavellian BRick who's just pulled a super trick on you.

And let's just finish with novice's post, novice who was so convinced that BRick was scum a few hours ago,

Some additional reasons AdrienIer could be scum:

Or maybe I should be voting AdrienIer for making two implicit assumptions indicating inside knowledge - there being 3 scum left and Gaspar being scum. I mean, I can understand you suspecting Gaspar as scum with me, but why whould he be scum with BRick?

3 scum left makes sense in this setup BTW. And Gaspar being scum was my n°1 option before BRick's reveal. So yeah I make those two assumptions.

I can see some dangerous possibilities, but I'd like your opinion on the matter.

What possibilities do you see?

I think this setup could have a 1-shot vig (based on BRick's role), and scum would only need 1 more dead townie if he's on their side. Remember roles are mixed up so even though 1-shot vig is usually town it doesn't have to be.

He makes two implicit assumptions that scum can only know with certainty. And then adds a third by implicitly assuming that BRick's role is true when speculating on a 1-shot vig.

I'm going with Gaspar because it only delays the inevitable decision about us, and I think an additional day of things to analyze will be useful.

Saul can wait until you're dead, novice, I don't mind if he wants to explain more right now but we're in no hurry. Sorry for the lack of posts recently I've been busy and even when available the prospect of rereading Jabbz Dtay Saul BRick and Sunrise (or even some of them) has made me avoid the thread a little.
I'm pretty sure lynching novice is the right choice here, a BRick trick doesn't make sense if novice is town.

He thinks another day for analysis will be useful, but when the day arrives we're in no hurry and he's avoiding the thread due the prospect of analysing it.

So after making a case on Gaspar (follow up case after Gazglum posted his) I assume that Gaspar is scum in my next posts. How is that a scum tell ? And if I'm wrong about there being 3 scum we win earlier, while if I start assuming 2 scum and there's 3 of them we lose. I did assume BRick was telling the truth, it didn't mean he was town either with the role mixup. It just meant more roles were possible. And I still consider it more likely that he's not lying at all.

I did use the day to think about it more, and you were more and more scummy as time went by. No hurry because Saul's role could have important details in it that were better kept silent until tomorrow.

[Doctor Saul]

It is worth noting that brick didn't vote Gaspar until after he had given up.

Yeah, I saw the trip up attempt and that's why I laughed at you novice. I can see you as scum trying to undermine me. But admitting to it? That doesn't seem like a scum thing to do.

this town is way too quiet. We should be trying to find out who s novice accomplice or a brick accomplice would be. Cause worst case that's the LYLO and the wrist case situation