Lots of thoughts and quotes from AdrienIer's play over the entire game:
Gaspar/AdrienIer interaction:
(February 18th, 2015, 06:10)Gaspar Wrote: AdrienIer has a whiff of the new wolfs to him, has he rolled scum previously?
(February 18th, 2015, 06:26)AdrienIer Wrote: Never rolled scum yet, but when I'll eventually do my first wolf game my first post in the wolf thread will be to ask for advice, in order to stay low and not to attract attention
(February 18th, 2015, 18:08)Gaspar Wrote:
(February 18th, 2015, 06:26)AdrienIer Wrote: Never rolled scum yet, but when I'll eventually do my first wolf game my first post in the wolf thread will be to ask for advice, in order to stay low and not to attract attention
(February 18th, 2015, 18:18)Gaspar Wrote: [*]I think AdrianIer fits the profile of a first-time scum or day 1 screwup.
Mid-Day 1 AdrienIer post, Also mentions both Gaspar and Mattimeo here.
(February 18th, 2015, 15:17)AdrienIer Wrote: So many possible mislynches, very few tells, but at least we're distinctly out of the joke vote phase and into the "incredibly small tell leads to a wagon on an unlikely wolf" phase. If I understand correctly Doctor Saul hasn't played WW here for some time, maybe he's rusty instead of scummy. I'm tempted to go after Gaspar and Matt for lurking but it can wait till tomorrow. Matt is a lurker as scum AND as town (at least in his last two games) so no tell there. Sunrise has only two meaningful posts too, but they had a point and contributed to the discussion.
But actually Fenn's reasons for voting on me were odd :
(February 18th, 2015, 10:47)Fenn Wrote: Don't think Adrien is all that suspicious for the self vote but it did need to be pointed out.
I'd understand if his reasons were "it was that or a random vote, so I chose that". Need to be pointed out ? I don't see it.
Not that Q isn't suspicious (as far as you can be suspicious on D1) but I need to move to an actual vote now.
Some interaction with Mattimeo here. Mattimeo getting up to two posts being enough to switch off of him but then later you switched back on? That starts to sound like self-conscious scum. And in responding to Saul he verifies that the low post count is his reasoning.
(February 19th, 2015, 04:57)AdrienIer Wrote:
(February 19th, 2015, 03:21)Mattimeo Wrote:
(February 18th, 2015, 15:17)AdrienIer Wrote: Matt is a lurker as scum AND as town (at least in his last two games) so no tell there.
Excuse me, in the previous game, with both plentiful information available d1 and a very strong power role, I was solidly in the top 50% of posters before I was killed.
Ah apparently you're right, I remembered going to sleep on the first day while you had only one post and thinking you were lurking again. But you started posting on the next day.
Does this mean you only lurk as scum then ?
Anyway now that you're up to a whooping 2 posts I'll try to look for an other case.
(February 19th, 2015, 11:41)AdrienIer Wrote: IDK if I already changed my vote, but I'm on Mattimeo now. Not enough posting plus not so great content in both posts.
(February 19th, 2015, 13:04)AdrienIer Wrote:
(February 19th, 2015, 12:49)Doctor Saul Wrote: I'd much rather hang Fenn than Mattimeo
Maybe, but he's still contributed more than twice as much as Matt.
After some of this burst he laid low for most of the next day, making some posts and joining on the Fenn lynch, nothing too remarkable.
Here's a large section of Day 3 analysis. This is the tough part for me because it feels really good and villager-y even now. Maybe he spent his time laying low Day 2 to recompose and get some tips in the scum thread? Maybe he just really got on a roll with making some good committed points? Also gives sunrise scummy lurky points.
(February 24th, 2015, 05:31)AdrienIer Wrote:
(February 23rd, 2015, 22:11)BRickAstley Wrote: I'd say AdrienIer for now, mainly because if Lewwyn/novice continue to fight with each other that should be enough to get better reads on each of them.
I have noticed the irony of attacking Fenn on inactivity when I haven't participated much, I'm on a much needed one week break right now and I've spent my last days doing absolutely nothing, being completely passive in everything, including WW. I thought I had a good reason for attacking Fenn, I stand by the fact that he had low content in his posts until he was pressured, and the other cases hadn't convinced me. I'll repeat myself here saying that Q did a reasonably good D2, also Jabbz is still in the same mood as last game, at the same time angry and disheartened, which seems like a continuation of town-Jabbz. In the end I was tempted to go after Novice but I dislike last minute wagons on principle.
(February 24th, 2015, 12:38)AdrienIer Wrote: I could attack Brick but it would be mostly about going for Zak then back to Mattimeo, which he has already explained. Not enough info to judge the explanation, I could try pure gut feeling (aka arbitrary decision) but I'd rather keep that as a last resort.
I really don't understand what you mean in this case by "taking ownership of the case" ? As I said, I made no real case, just pointed at a particular event and got suspicions on a group of people. I'd completely understand if you attacked me on that (even though I'm not the only one that did pretty much nothing on D2) but attacking me on having a case and backing out of it is silly. Posts 436 437 and 439 are non commital because that discussion doesn't give me any more info on Q being town or scum, I accepted the statement he made, end of story.
You completely misunderstood the post most central to your case against me Saul. That's what happens when you're building a fake case
(February 24th, 2015, 12:40)AdrienIer Wrote: I fully agree, and intend to do that now by rereading people.
(February 24th, 2015, 13:19)AdrienIer Wrote: Ok well I couldn't find anything else of importance until you attacked me Saul : I'm not going to vote for you just because you attacked me on false ground, everyone has a right to be mistaken.
I don't like his D1 actually. This could definitely be a scum staying on scum for the day hoping to get off him before deadline, then when he realizes he's become part of a wagon decides to wait and see, then understands he's not going to save his buddy so stays where he is.
Overall only post 533 517 284 174 and the beginning's Matt vs Dtay controversy (posts 80 and 84) have content in them, plus 2 or 3 1-liners. Add to that 3 or 4 defensive posts and you have all the Sunrise contributions. I'm feeling very uncomfortable attacking people on lack of content but apparently no one else does this so I'll have to : this is not enough I think, even if he's short on time.
(February 24th, 2015, 15:53)AdrienIer Wrote:
(February 24th, 2015, 15:29)Doctor Saul Wrote: Do you think sunrise is being lazy or do you think he's scum hiding?
Could be lazy. But he said he'd what he could to not have the least post on a given day and I think he still was yesterday. If not in pure numbers then in number of posts with content (although I was close second I think). He's a vet so I expected more of him in terms of read, too.
I'm fine with working with my intuition but here I got no great lean, as has been the case since this day begun.
Here's his analysis on Gaspar though; notably he gives him an all clear to be town. This isn't inconsistent with anything he's said before, so not obvious scumminess, but it does look like he's trying to help Gaspar distance himself from the Mattimeo lynch, hre in retrospect.
(February 24th, 2015, 16:59)AdrienIer Wrote: First meaningful Gaspar post : main thing I'm keeping is the attack on Sunrise which feels real. I don't see them as being scumbuddies, complicated scum plot isn't to be ruled out completely but in this case I doubt it. It goes on for a few posts.
Mattimeo vote that puts him from 4-3 to 5-3 is good. Complicated scum plot 2.0 ? Even more unlikely.
Then a lot of "good" posts, once again as in I can't say anything bad about them and feel like they could very well be from a townie. He wants to hear opinions on Novice and Lewwyn from people like me with few RB WW games, I'll do that after sleep (already did Novice, not convinced, I'll keep watching him).
So basically my read on Gaspar is that he's back to WW and in a period of getting back to full strength by scumhunting here and there. Being a vet has its disadvantages though : I'm not counting out the possibility that he's just nailing it as scum. Actually the trouble I found reading him is that I don't know yet what to make of his interactions with Lewwyn until I read his posts too. Becaus of similar difficulties to get leans I've been avoiding a Brick reread (lots of arguing with various people, which means having to decide who's right and who's wrong several times) and Dtay (his posts are long...)
Also note this post where he jumps on Lewwyn who's already called out Gaspar as "pretty sure scum"
(February 25th, 2015, 05:15)AdrienIer Wrote: Making Zak rise from the dead to help us with our hunting :
(February 19th, 2015, 17:28)zakalwe Wrote:
(February 19th, 2015, 16:49)Lewwyn Wrote:
(February 19th, 2015, 16:48)zakalwe Wrote: The most obvious scum suspect in all of this is Lewwyn, IMO. Pretty sure that he is scum once again, looking back on this day.
Elaborate.
You followed me on Saul, said Mattimeo was innocent for saying "eh", and then took an opportunistic shot at me at the end. That's what I remember off the top of my head.
That's pretty much what happened, except I wouldn't go as far as calling Lewwyn's Zak vote opportunistic.
(February 19th, 2015, 20:05)Lewwyn Wrote:
(February 19th, 2015, 19:56)novice Wrote:
(February 19th, 2015, 17:35)Lewwyn Wrote:
(February 19th, 2015, 17:28)zakalwe Wrote: That's what I remember off the top of my head.
When you actually check my posts I think you'll see it a bit differently.
I reread them now and they do leave some reasonable doubt. My main question is why Saul's one post on Zak was enough to sway you onto Zak. You didn't seem to suspect him earlier, and you did suspect Saul.
Looking more closely at the Zak assassination attempt and how the votes were placed it's a bit doubtful that scum could ever think it would succeed. So it's also possible it's just villagers messing about.
Did you see what time I arrived home? There were eight minutes left. At that point I skimmed a bit read a bit of Saul's post and also saw Matt and Zak on the block. Zak was at 5 I think and Matt at like 7, but when I posted was at 8, and Zak hadn't changed his vote yet. I decided I would vote for Zak (I really didn't expect him to get lynched) and even it up. I thought we had two villagers on the block.
I mean honestly if I were scum and I knew Matt was scum and I knew that he was about to be lynched and it was obvious that Matt was going to be lynched... actually I'm not sure what I would've done as scum. Probably I would have waited until after the deadline and kept my vote on Saul and not poked my head in.
Agreed about the 8mn left before vote part, but the rest annoys me. If you think both options are villagers you can vote for someone else, but here the superior option was going for the policy lynch because if a villager is going to die it might as well serve as a lesson for future games.
Then comes a lot of WIFOM I won't comment.
Then guess who started the Fenn wagon ?
(February 20th, 2015, 17:51)Lewwyn Wrote:
(February 20th, 2015, 15:03)Fenn Wrote: He did have some amount of towncred from the D1 lynch situation, so I suppose he'd be as good a target as any. Good on you for giving detailed reads last night, zak.
Guess you weren't too surprised he was dead. Feels scummy Fenn. Probably shouldn't have gone with that prepackaged death response.
I actually don't at all trust Lewwyn's starter-zak kit routine this game, generally how I've felt when he's rolled scum, last time I just fell for buddying. At least he's talking though. On the other hand, I wonder what dtay thinks?
Actually I'm pretty sure you're scum since Zak was killed Day 1. Rule one of the Gaspar scum rulebook, kill Zak. That coupled with you not voting for Zak when it was between him and Matt tells me that you're also likely scum. Stay on Matt because Zak isn't getting lynched anyway and you can get more bussing cred. Village Gaspar would have thrown a vote on Zak for the same reasons I did. Zak is inherently suspicioius and it's fun to vote for Zak and make him sweat.
So yeah I'm sorry you had to roll scum again in your first game back in a while Gaspar.
Anyone else want to chime in on my thoughts of Gaspar?
Random attack on Gaspar for meta reasons, I'd call it a joke post but the last line means it's not.
Good points for trying to wake up town in a dreadful D2, his attack on Jabbz is good, but then (even though the case he put up is pretty convincing there, and Jabbz is definitely on my watchlist) he backpedals to the most indecisive attack ever.
So summing it up, even though he made some good points at the beginning of D2 I'm going to vote for him for the moment. Note that he started his "wake up town" posts when Jabbz and Q were the main candidates for lynch, both are on most people's scum leans. Lewwyn
Here's his post on Gaspar that followed right after Gazglums that swayed me to pick him for the 3rd target I scanned that night. Honestly it still sounds pretty towny even now. Maybe at this point Gaspar had seen the writing on the wall and told scum to feel free to join in piling onto him for credit? Considering he basically qq'ed halfway through the following gameday that doesn't seem all that unlikely.
(February 26th, 2015, 13:17)AdrienIer Wrote: In light of what Gazglum has said, here are more Gaspar thoughts.
During D2 and N2 he said this
(February 21st, 2015, 14:12)Gaspar Wrote: Ultimately, I don't really like voting on voting record on D2. Get us to a point where we've got 4-5 players out of the game and its easier to make those conclusions. I think the biggest thing you can see on D2 is changes in behavior now that we have some info/history. That's why I was skeptical on dtay. That's why I am skeptical on Lewwyn (along with the other reasons already stated) though I confess that Lewwyn makes a valid point in his rebuttal.
(February 22nd, 2015, 18:07)Gaspar Wrote: Anyway, who dies tonight should clear the picture slightly and at least personally I'll try and drive a little more next day.
He didn't really do much yesterday though (except NOT going after Lewwyn and Novice).
Then this happens :
(February 23rd, 2015, 16:06)Gaspar Wrote: I didn't promise a tour de force, btw. I don't know if I have that in me anymore. I just promised I'd try and be a bit more proactive.
I probably don't have time for a full-scale reread/reassess tonight but right now I feel more certain that either novice or Lewwyn is scum. I'd like it if some of the players with let's say, less than 5 RB WW games under their belt would chime in with opinions on the two of them. I wonder if their game reads different when you don't have a long-history muddled baseline on them.
So he backpedals on really driving the day, and asks people with less than 5 RB WW games to give opinions on Lewwyn and Novice. How many people would fit that criteria ? 2 or 3 right ? Dtay, myself, maybe Jabbz IDK if he's been around for long. Yet at the minute I make a case on Lewwyn this happens
(February 25th, 2015, 08:01)Gaspar Wrote: @Gazglum - Sorry I'm not living up to your expectations. Just not had quite the time to really drive the way I wanted. I don't think I've been hedging so much as maybe over-explaining my thoughts. When I'm sure, you'll know it.
I think I've probably been too focused on novice and Lewwyn. That's most likely scars from getting burned by Lewwyn last game I played. If it turns out he rolled scum, I want to make sure not to miss it and novice is always tough to pin a role because he's a bit enigmatic. I'm going to try and forget about them for a little while.
Sunrise is a fine lynch because he's not really playing but I just feel like maybe he's being propped up as a compromise candidate because we're all bored with voting for Qg and I think his lynch still gives us the most information. I dislike policy lynches in a place where we have real information but I'm not sure how much real information we have. Sunrise felt D1 scummy but since then has just felt like usual, super busy sunrise. That doesn't really mean anything. Do we want to lynch that guy or the guy half the town has thought scummy enough to vote multiple times at this point? I mean, if nothing else, if he wriggles off the hook we're just going to do this again tomorrow and I don't see how that's remotely productive.
1) he doesn't have the time (yet he's done several rereads already).
2) he's not going to go after novice or Lewwyn. What ? You asked for other opinions on the Lewwyn/Novice case, you got them and you WALK AWAY ? I just noted that Dtay also gave his opinion several times on details involving Novice and Lewwyn, even though I couldn't find a grand analysis post about them. So he got his answers. Time to lead a crusade dude, make a stand and lead the town to victory. At least make a stand and curse at the town for not following you. I'll be kind and not vote for you right at the start to give you a chance to do this.
Here's his posts immediately following my reveal. It gave me confirmation at the time that he voted right for novice and didnt try and dispute me, but I also note now that he was doing a lot of questioning about the specifics of my role, like someone trying to figure out if he should start preparing a defense once novice eventually flipped town.
(February 26th, 2015, 17:12)AdrienIer Wrote: Did you put me and Gazglum in because you suspected us or because you thought we were town and wanted to narrow the information to "is novice scum" ?
(February 26th, 2015, 17:53)AdrienIer Wrote: Ok. novice
(February 26th, 2015, 18:00)AdrienIer Wrote: BTW BRick if you don't mind answering a few questions, you say you get positive results if any of the players have killed in the past two nights, but (I think ?) only one scum player makes the actual kill each night ? Like it was last game ? So it's just luck that novice was indeed one such player ? And what would you have done if it had come out negative ?
I kinda find making this theory odd. Why would you pull a 1-shot vig idea out of nowhere to try and explain how that might make me scum?
(February 27th, 2015, 08:11)AdrienIer Wrote:
(February 27th, 2015, 08:04)novice Wrote:
(February 27th, 2015, 06:52)AdrienIer Wrote: I can see some dangerous possibilities, but I'd like your opinion on the matter.
What possibilities do you see?
I think this setup could have a 1-shot vig (based on BRick's role), and scum would only need 1 more dead townie if he's on their side. Remember roles are mixed up so even though 1-shot vig is usually town it doesn't have to be.
Oh hey look, here's Adrien slowly coming around to the idea of delaying the lynch a day as well. Don't call me out for being scum because I was fine delaying the novice lynch for a day when you did the exact same thing.
(February 27th, 2015, 15:44)AdrienIer Wrote: We could go with Gaspar->Novice if most people want that. Worse situation is if we split our votes and scum have the possibility of getting Lewwyn lynched. But their play today and tomorrow will be to solidify their last player to make it harder to spot him. Even if we get two scums in a row team scum has a winning chance.
So this is the results of my going back and re-reading AdrienIer in this new light, and by looking specifically with him interactions with Mattimeo and Gaspar Going back and considering that as fact, I feel like I'm coming up with more links that can explain a scum AdrianIer. The frustrating things is that while I know he's scum, I don't have as much of a flat out scum feeling from him as I had felt for Q and novice leading up to their lynches. But I do now know he's scum so some of that I have to chalk up to him playing a good game. Hopefully this will help some of the rest of you; I have a very bad feeling that we're probably at LyLo here and I feel like he's got the jump on me for the mislynch tomorrow to win the game.
(March 4th, 2015, 09:53)AdrienIer Wrote: Because your D1 was better ? I just finished reading it and you started the Zak wagon with Saul, before dialing back when you realized how scummy it looked
Sooo it's scummy to get freaked out when an alternate lynch candidate suddenly gets 4 votes in the space of 5 minutes or so?
(March 4th, 2015, 09:56)AdrienIer Wrote: And you were the one who started attacking Q on real matters (not for attacking me), which made him a target for the next days. All on day 1...
I am assuming that you meant post #293. I still stand by that post, even if Q is town,because a player opening with that body of posts feel pretty suspicious. Making some really weird reasoning and getting angry when people call him weird. And also after that I pretty much pursued Q most of the next 2 days, because I thought that he was suspicious. I guess you're saying that being consistent and convinced is a sign I'm scum?
(March 4th, 2015, 10:05)AdrienIer Wrote: Do people really think that 3 scum would be on Matt on D1 ? Actively making sure he was killed ?
It does seem somewhat unlikely. But you and Gaspar were both in the first half of the voters on him, and by the time a lynch for him appeared sure, you couldn't back off without garnering suspicion. That's less actively killing him, more continuing with the bus because it'd give you credit and getting off the bus would destroy your rep.
Also, this is the second time you've mentioned for sure that there are 4 scum. How do you know that again?
(March 4th, 2015, 10:17)AdrienIer Wrote: Zak spent a lot of N1 talking about how he's going to go after BRick on D2. At the end of the night he dies. I already found a lot of scummy things and I haven't even finished rereading N1...
I put all of zak's relevant quotes from night 1 below in the spoiler. Yes he does make that weird thumbscrews comment, but I'd not say that he spent a ton of time talking about me, at least not compared to the other names he drops there too.
(February 19th, 2015, 16:48)zakalwe Wrote: I still don't really have time to sit down with this and I think I'll save most of it for tomorrow when I have a keyboard and an office.
Briefly, though - town points for Gazglum and Rowain, and probably others once I get to reread. I do think Saul gets some for being a parallel contender.
Q, your vote/case against me seems to be based on some wrong facts. I wasn't voting for Mattimeo when you voted for me. My vote was on Fenn.
And yes, that vote was intended as a trust-building exercise with Saul. Which obviously failed miserably.
The most obvious scum suspect in all of this is Lewwyn, IMO. Pretty sure that he is scum once again, looking back on this day.
(February 20th, 2015, 06:05)zakalwe Wrote: Tomorrow I will try to not focus so much on Saul because I've been doing enough of that for the time being. Gotta give him some time to catch scum before we mislynch him at the end, right?
After the reread, I agree with Rowain that Sunrise's interactions with Mattimeo (and vice versa) are scum 101. Not sure I agree that his content is so redeeming. So maybe I'll retract some of my town points. Lynching him may still be an overreaction, though. Two scum lurkers bussing each other from the start of day 1? Doesn't really sound like a winning strategy, but who knows. I tried to lynch the "busser" on day 2 of the last game and it didn't work out so great.
Q looks bad not so much for his misconstructed case against me, but for coming in very late and immediately concluding that the Mattimeo wagon must be bogus. If you're convinced that the town is heading off a cliff and in a rush to make a case for an alternative, factual errors might creep in. But where did that conviction come from? He wasn't aware of the deadline and missed his chance to influence the day 1 lynch - sure, that sucks - but why scramble to save Mattimeo? Smells a bit like scum thinking he can get away with it because "a townie would never do that".
At the other end of the scale, I think Jabbz was suspiciously quick to slap his vote down for Mattimeo when he returned. He also kept dropping the term "policy lynch" in a way that subtly undermined his own wagon. Maybe his "Zakalwe I'm totally down with lynching" post was there to give himself the option, but then he didn't quite dare to pull the trigger (after discussing with fellow scum, perhaps) and went for the maximum amount of towncred instead by attacking the late voters. Either way, it looks like a bit of a set-up when you first encourage people to vote for me, and then turn around and attack the players who took your bait.
I feel kind of sorry for Gaspar, who is being left out of the discussion. Strangely I still don't feel the urge to lynch him; not quite sure what to make of that.
(February 20th, 2015, 06:08)zakalwe Wrote: I also think we have given Brick enough low-pressure time to hunt freely and enjoy the game, now. I have no qualms about turning the thumbscrews at this point.
(February 20th, 2015, 12:14)zakalwe Wrote: Brick, you said yesterday that you don't function well as town when you're put on the defensive (paraphrasing), so I said we should ease up on the pressure and let you play. Now you've had a day, and I think that's enough, so I'm lifting the amnesty. I did like some of your posts yesterday but that's really beside the point. To be honest I dislike the quote digging that you're doing there because it looks like you may be trying to construct a contradiction.
(February 20th, 2015, 12:36)zakalwe Wrote: Of course I get that it's a joke, Jabbz. Could still be a joke made for a reason. You were lowering the bar for yourself if you wanted to follow up with a serious vote later.
And may I remind you that you were the one who mislynched me.
I thought the timing of your Mattimeo vote was suspicious because it looked like you were in a rush to get it in, before even catching up properly. So maybe you were trying to get a share of the credit.
(March 4th, 2015, 09:53)AdrienIer Wrote: Because your D1 was better ? I just finished reading it and you started the Zak wagon with Saul, before dialing back when you realized how scummy it looked
Sooo it's scummy to get freaked out when an alternate lynch candidate suddenly gets 4 votes in the space of 5 minutes or so?
All the others didn't mind too much. All the dead townies stayed on Zak till the end.
(March 4th, 2015, 09:53)AdrienIer Wrote: Because your D1 was better ? I just finished reading it and you started the Zak wagon with Saul, before dialing back when you realized how scummy it looked
Sooo it's scummy to get freaked out when an alternate lynch candidate suddenly gets 4 votes in the space of 5 minutes or so?
All the others didn't mind too much. All the dead townies stayed on Zak till the end.
Well whether they were town or not, I was spooked out by the quick switch and suspected that there was foul play afoot.
Maybe Saul is your partner in crime and the scum who engineered the whole potential switch in the first place.
(March 4th, 2015, 05:22)AdrienIer Wrote: I noticed that Saul's role is counter-intuitive in the sense that he gets "positive" results if the target is innocent and "negative" if he's guilty (simplifying here). Normally the question you want to ask the GM is "is he the wolf". BRick do you mind re-reading your role MP and night result MP to make sure you didn't make the stupidest mistake ever ? And Sunrise can you confirm that your role hasn't tempered with BRick's ? It can wait till morning if you don't want the wolves to know about it yet.
So it's all been one big misunderstanding? Is that really what you are thinking now?
I agree with much of what Saul says, but I'll somewhat dispute his focus. We're basically forced into lynching one of Brick or Adrien, it gives us shooting blind 50-50 odds at worse + the chance of double scum. This actually isn't really that much better blind odds than just lynching someone else, but it is still better. To compare, from the hypothetical 2 town members perspectives in us remaining 3 you get 50-50 blind odds MINUS the chance of double adrien/brick scum. And similar to Saul I actually think the probability of double scum is pretty high.
However, besides using the double scum possibility to justify focusing on Adrien and Brick as opposed to sunrise/jabbz (or whichever the 2 other people are from your perspective), we should discount and ignore it. Because if they’re both scum we’re getting a scum lynch anyway. We should think about the possibility on the morrow after that successful lynch, because it will be super endgame relevant. But until then we’re just playing a game of determining whether Adrien=scum brick = town or brick=scum adrien=town is more likely. And also similar to solve I think more likely is the most we’re gonna get. I’d say I find both Adrien and Brick in the null-ish to slightly scummy category at this point without the forced choice as opposed to both being in the towny category like others have them, but it doesn’t make a material difference to the point that we’re playing a game of probabilities here.
Fwiw Adrien yes I’d start out tomorrow right now voting for you for basically the same reasons as yesterday. But it isn’t by as large of a margin as you seem to imagine, I think you’re reading into my posts a far greater certainty than I intend to put there. The thing I as most certain about yesterday was that everyone’s certainty with regards to novice seemed incredibly misplaced to me. To say novice was the most scummy by a bit and you wanted to vote for him on that would seem wrong to me but arguable. To be nearly certain “we’ve got the scum”, and “let’s not even think about adrien” as Lew said seemed insane.
[b]Brick Reads, part 1[b]
Amusing in hindsight, but day 1 discount + not actually hard to say as scum = no town points
Brick Wrote:This is probably a joke, but I've noted that Gaspar has made only two joke posts and a post asking some high level questions. Even the one-poster Mattimeo has contributed more to the conversation so far.
Anyway, I find most of his day 1 useless, going to skip to the matt v zak stuff
Brick Wrote:Mattimeo: This is Mattimeo Mattimeoing. Literally every game he plays he opens with very low post #s, except last game which was for all purposes a Day 3 Start anyways. I guess he could be lynched for not participating much, though the justification of that seems poor since his play isn't a wolf tell, but a meta decision. You mentioned that you didn't like the content of his posts, but I think they're at least honest, if wrong in some assumptions. Overall, not a horrid choice if you factor in meta, but I wouldn't enjoy policy lynching a known lurker for lurking, it'll probably get us the least usable info.
This is waffly, quasi defense. Scum points. But then
Brick Wrote:Of the three, I would prefer to lynch Mattimeo over the others, but that's also like saying that I prefer to treat foot pain by burning the nerves off over amputation. I feel like even though it's day 1 there should be some sort of better option.
Is better, and consistent with the zak switch. Ties him down to Matt over 2 other actually plausible at the time blockmates. And is consistent with his later switch to zak. On the other hand, it was 7-2 matt this time so maybe those other candidates were off the table forsure. On the other other hand, I think a matt bus decision is basically certain given Gaspar’s vote timing, the timing of any possible 4th scum, the way everything consolidated on Matt, and Matt’s own (as reported to me) willingness to be bussed. So why is scum-Brick waffling publicly about someone who’s about to flip scum?
You see why I find day 1 unhelpful at this point.
I also find Brick’s talkative nature about his vote for Matt frankly less scummy than say, Jabbz’s 1 line vote for Matt with nearly the same timing. Jabbz’s is easier to do as scum and less likely to attract suspicion. There’s nothing actively scummy about it at all, but that’s the point. If you just slide by you don’t HAVE to risk being somewhat scummy, versus Brick posting all the time here puts him more in the spotlight. I think in general we’ve been overpunishing actually contributing and incidentally doing somewhat scummy things as opposed to lurking, see novice, but I repeat myself. If I make it to a 2-1 endgame I feel like I’m just going to be shooting blind grumble grumble.
Then we get to the zak switch. Saul had been on Zak for a bit. Then Brick gets cold feet over Matt, adequately indicated, and agrees to Saul’s push on Zak. Then in like 1 minute 3 more people join him (2 of which we know are town, 1 is Matt), and then Lew joins later. Brick freaks out then switches back to Matt. If you think Matt was deliberately bussed than this that scummy. If you think he wasn’t and scum actually wanted to save him at this point Brick has pretty suspicious timing as far as timing goes.
Typing more, decided to not post all in one. Gonna go eat, back in 20.
Academic and obvious, but other reason to focus on Brick/Adrien is we can all agree on what the 50-50 is, as opposed to the other pairs. But I don't think we're actually at risk of not lynching one of Brick/Adrien