WW 36 - Horrors in Kingsport [Game Thread]

[dtay]

Here's actually my best way of phrasing how I'm thinking of insight based on Matt. In his case we have very little insight into the sign of the tell, not just the significance. This makes it uniquely difficult (for me at least) to come up with rough senses of how something affects p(x=scum), because the more scummy/less scummy line lies within the area of uncertainty.

Because we don't know bus timing, and strictly speaking don't KNOW bus existence, and b/c early votes might be safe, and b/c day 1 causes villagers to have to do things on just gut instinct, to take for example the brick switch onto zak, that action could be anywhere on the full spectrum of "totally inexplicable for scum", to "scum trying to BE harmlessly totally inexplicable for scum for cover" to "wow super scummy saving matt", to "no way would a scum do something so scummy to save matt".

I just don't feel like I can meaningfully pierce that with confidence, especially compared to easier to parse and think about later day.

[AdrienIer]

It's time for a response to the earlier BRick messages

This day one is going to be super random. At least at the start. So I might as well use random.org for the first vote. I am therefore voting for number 10 [/color]:
AdrienIer

Oh...

Second try is better :
Mattimeo

You know this is reeeeeeeeally interesting in retrospect.

Actually I'm not sure what you mean here ? That I faked a random.org test and just threw Matt's name in ? Or are you coming back to the random.org + self vote is scummy argument ?

Lots of thoughts and quotes from AdrienIer's play over the entire game:

Gaspar/AdrienIer interaction:

AdrienIer has a whiff of the new wolfs to him, has he rolled scum previously?

Never rolled scum yet, but when I'll eventually do my first wolf game my first post in the wolf thread will be to ask for advice, in order to stay low and not to attract attention

Never rolled scum yet, but when I'll eventually do my first wolf game my first post in the wolf thread will be to ask for advice, in order to stay low and not to attract attention

[*]I think AdrianIer fits the profile of a first-time scum or day 1 screwup.

Mid-Day 1 AdrienIer post, Also mentions both Gaspar and Mattimeo here.

So many possible mislynches, very few tells, but at least we're distinctly out of the joke vote phase and into the "incredibly small tell leads to a wagon on an unlikely wolf" phase. If I understand correctly Doctor Saul hasn't played WW here for some time, maybe he's rusty instead of scummy. I'm tempted to go after Gaspar and Matt for lurking but it can wait till tomorrow. Matt is a lurker as scum AND as town (at least in his last two games) so no tell there. Sunrise has only two meaningful posts too, but they had a point and contributed to the discussion.

But actually Fenn's reasons for voting on me were odd :

Don't think Adrien is all that suspicious for the self vote but it did need to be pointed out.

I'd understand if his reasons were "it was that or a random vote, so I chose that". Need to be pointed out ? I don't see it.

Not that Q isn't suspicious (as far as you can be suspicious on D1) but I need to move to an actual vote now.

Some interaction with Mattimeo here. Mattimeo getting up to two posts being enough to switch off of him but then later you switched back on? That starts to sound like self-conscious scum. And in responding to Saul he verifies that the low post count is his reasoning.

Novice started getting on my nerves, Matt wasn't completely lurking anymore, I had every reason to think that even though his post wasn't great he was coming out of lurking. But he didn't contribute too much afterwards, and novice and I had a little conversation, I thought I didn't have enough good reasons to vote for novice (plus no one else was voting for him). So back to the scummiest/lurkiest guy.

Matt is a lurker as scum AND as town (at least in his last two games) so no tell there.

Excuse me, in the previous game, with both plentiful information available d1 and a very strong power role, I was solidly in the top 50% of posters before I was killed.

Ah apparently you're right, I remembered going to sleep on the first day while you had only one post and thinking you were lurking again. But you started posting on the next day.
Does this mean you only lurk as scum then ?

Anyway now that you're up to a whooping 2 posts I'll try to look for an other case.

IDK if I already changed my vote, but I'm on Mattimeo now. Not enough posting plus not so great content in both posts.

I'd much rather hang Fenn than Mattimeo

Maybe, but he's still contributed more than twice as much as Matt.

After some of this burst he laid low for most of the next day, making some posts and joining on the Fenn lynch, nothing too remarkable.

Here's a large section of Day 3 analysis. This is the tough part for me because it feels really good and villager-y even now. Maybe he spent his time laying low Day 2 to recompose and get some tips in the scum thread? Maybe he just really got on a roll with making some good committed points? Also gives sunrise scummy lurky points.

I'd say AdrienIer for now, mainly because if Lewwyn/novice continue to fight with each other that should be enough to get better reads on each of them.

I have noticed the irony of attacking Fenn on inactivity when I haven't participated much, I'm on a much needed one week break right now and I've spent my last days doing absolutely nothing, being completely passive in everything, including WW. I thought I had a good reason for attacking Fenn, I stand by the fact that he had low content in his posts until he was pressured, and the other cases hadn't convinced me. I'll repeat myself here saying that Q did a reasonably good D2, also Jabbz is still in the same mood as last game, at the same time angry and disheartened, which seems like a continuation of town-Jabbz. In the end I was tempted to go after Novice but I dislike last minute wagons on principle.

I could attack Brick but it would be mostly about going for Zak then back to Mattimeo, which he has already explained. Not enough info to judge the explanation, I could try pure gut feeling (aka arbitrary decision) but I'd rather keep that as a last resort.
I really don't understand what you mean in this case by "taking ownership of the case" ? As I said, I made no real case, just pointed at a particular event and got suspicions on a group of people. I'd completely understand if you attacked me on that (even though I'm not the only one that did pretty much nothing on D2) but attacking me on having a case and backing out of it is silly. Posts 436 437 and 439 are non commital because that discussion doesn't give me any more info on Q being town or scum, I accepted the statement he made, end of story.

You completely misunderstood the post most central to your case against me Saul. That's what happens when you're building a fake case

I fully agree, and intend to do that now by rereading people.

Ok well I couldn't find anything else of importance until you attacked me Saul : I'm not going to vote for you just because you attacked me on false ground, everyone has a right to be mistaken.

Rereading Sunrise now, shouldn't take long

Sunrise reread done and analyzed :

I don't like his D1 actually. This could definitely be a scum staying on scum for the day hoping to get off him before deadline, then when he realizes he's become part of a wagon decides to wait and see, then understands he's not going to save his buddy so stays where he is.

Overall only post 533 517 284 174 and the beginning's Matt vs Dtay controversy (posts 80 and 84) have content in them, plus 2 or 3 1-liners. Add to that 3 or 4 defensive posts and you have all the Sunrise contributions. I'm feeling very uncomfortable attacking people on lack of content but apparently no one else does this so I'll have to : this is not enough I think, even if he's short on time.

Do you think sunrise is being lazy or do you think he's scum hiding?

Could be lazy. But he said he'd what he could to not have the least post on a given day and I think he still was yesterday. If not in pure numbers then in number of posts with content (although I was close second I think). He's a vet so I expected more of him in terms of read, too.
I'm fine with working with my intuition but here I got no great lean, as has been the case since this day begun.

Here's his analysis on Gaspar though; notably he gives him an all clear to be town. This isn't inconsistent with anything he's said before, so not obvious scumminess, but it does look like he's trying to help Gaspar distance himself from the Mattimeo lynch, hre in retrospect.

First meaningful Gaspar post : main thing I'm keeping is the attack on Sunrise which feels real. I don't see them as being scumbuddies, complicated scum plot isn't to be ruled out completely but in this case I doubt it. It goes on for a few posts.

Mattimeo vote that puts him from 4-3 to 5-3 is good. Complicated scum plot 2.0 ? Even more unlikely.

Then a lot of "good" posts, once again as in I can't say anything bad about them and feel like they could very well be from a townie. He wants to hear opinions on Novice and Lewwyn from people like me with few RB WW games, I'll do that after sleep (already did Novice, not convinced, I'll keep watching him).

So basically my read on Gaspar is that he's back to WW and in a period of getting back to full strength by scumhunting here and there. Being a vet has its disadvantages though : I'm not counting out the possibility that he's just nailing it as scum. Actually the trouble I found reading him is that I don't know yet what to make of his interactions with Lewwyn until I read his posts too. Becaus of similar difficulties to get leans I've been avoiding a Brick reread (lots of arguing with various people, which means having to decide who's right and who's wrong several times) and Dtay (his posts are long...)

Where do I clear him in that post ? I say that he's done nothing scummy, that's all. I noticed during my rereading that my vote on Matt didn't push him from 3 to 4 votes but from 4 to 5, dtay's vote for "Matt" instead of Mattimeo broke the tally. Therefore Gaspar brought it from 5-3 to 6-3 which is far more consistent with a bussing. I was wrong then.

Also note this post where he jumps on Lewwyn who's already called out Gaspar as "pretty sure scum"

Making Zak rise from the dead to help us with our hunting :

The most obvious scum suspect in all of this is Lewwyn, IMO. Pretty sure that he is scum once again, looking back on this day.

Elaborate.

You followed me on Saul, said Mattimeo was innocent for saying "eh", and then took an opportunistic shot at me at the end. That's what I remember off the top of my head.

That's pretty much what happened, except I wouldn't go as far as calling Lewwyn's Zak vote opportunistic.

When you actually check my posts I think you'll see it a bit differently.

I reread them now and they do leave some reasonable doubt. My main question is why Saul's one post on Zak was enough to sway you onto Zak. You didn't seem to suspect him earlier, and you did suspect Saul.

Looking more closely at the Zak assassination attempt and how the votes were placed it's a bit doubtful that scum could ever think it would succeed. So it's also possible it's just villagers messing about.

Did you see what time I arrived home? There were eight minutes left. At that point I skimmed a bit read a bit of Saul's post and also saw Matt and Zak on the block. Zak was at 5 I think and Matt at like 7, but when I posted was at 8, and Zak hadn't changed his vote yet. I decided I would vote for Zak (I really didn't expect him to get lynched) and even it up. I thought we had two villagers on the block.

I mean honestly if I were scum and I knew Matt was scum and I knew that he was about to be lynched and it was obvious that Matt was going to be lynched... actually I'm not sure what I would've done as scum. Probably I would have waited until after the deadline and kept my vote on Saul and not poked my head in.

Agreed about the 8mn left before vote part, but the rest annoys me. If you think both options are villagers you can vote for someone else, but here the superior option was going for the policy lynch because if a villager is going to die it might as well serve as a lesson for future games.
Then comes a lot of WIFOM I won't comment.

Then guess who started the Fenn wagon ?

He did have some amount of towncred from the D1 lynch situation, so I suppose he'd be as good a target as any. Good on you for giving detailed reads last night, zak.

Guess you weren't too surprised he was dead. Feels scummy Fenn. Probably shouldn't have gone with that prepackaged death response.

GL Brick.

I actually don't at all trust Lewwyn's starter-zak kit routine this game, generally how I've felt when he's rolled scum, last time I just fell for buddying. At least he's talking though. On the other hand, I wonder what dtay thinks?

Actually I'm pretty sure you're scum since Zak was killed Day 1. Rule one of the Gaspar scum rulebook, kill Zak. That coupled with you not voting for Zak when it was between him and Matt tells me that you're also likely scum. Stay on Matt because Zak isn't getting lynched anyway and you can get more bussing cred. Village Gaspar would have thrown a vote on Zak for the same reasons I did. Zak is inherently suspicioius and it's fun to vote for Zak and make him sweat.

So yeah I'm sorry you had to roll scum again in your first game back in a while Gaspar.

Anyone else want to chime in on my thoughts of Gaspar?

Random attack on Gaspar for meta reasons, I'd call it a joke post but the last line means it's not.

Good points for trying to wake up town in a dreadful D2, his attack on Jabbz is good, but then (even though the case he put up is pretty convincing there, and Jabbz is definitely on my watchlist) he backpedals to the most indecisive attack ever.

novice then?

Followed by

Fenn

With pretty much no explanation.

So summing it up, even though he made some good points at the beginning of D2 I'm going to vote for him for the moment. Note that he started his "wake up town" posts when Jabbz and Q were the main candidates for lynch, both are on most people's scum leans. Lewwyn

Here's his post on Gaspar that followed right after Gazglums that swayed me to pick him for the 3rd target I scanned that night. Honestly it still sounds pretty towny even now. Maybe at this point Gaspar had seen the writing on the wall and told scum to feel free to join in piling onto him for credit? Considering he basically qq'ed halfway through the following gameday that doesn't seem all that unlikely.

In light of what Gazglum has said, here are more Gaspar thoughts.

During D2 and N2 he said this

Ultimately, I don't really like voting on voting record on D2. Get us to a point where we've got 4-5 players out of the game and its easier to make those conclusions. I think the biggest thing you can see on D2 is changes in behavior now that we have some info/history. That's why I was skeptical on dtay. That's why I am skeptical on Lewwyn (along with the other reasons already stated) though I confess that Lewwyn makes a valid point in his rebuttal.

Anyway, who dies tonight should clear the picture slightly and at least personally I'll try and drive a little more next day.

He didn't really do much yesterday though (except NOT going after Lewwyn and Novice).

Then this happens :

I didn't promise a tour de force, btw. I don't know if I have that in me anymore. I just promised I'd try and be a bit more proactive.

I probably don't have time for a full-scale reread/reassess tonight but right now I feel more certain that either novice or Lewwyn is scum. I'd like it if some of the players with let's say, less than 5 RB WW games under their belt would chime in with opinions on the two of them. I wonder if their game reads different when you don't have a long-history muddled baseline on them.

So he backpedals on really driving the day, and asks people with less than 5 RB WW games to give opinions on Lewwyn and Novice. How many people would fit that criteria ? 2 or 3 right ? Dtay, myself, maybe Jabbz IDK if he's been around for long. Yet at the minute I make a case on Lewwyn this happens

@Gazglum - Sorry I'm not living up to your expectations. Just not had quite the time to really drive the way I wanted. I don't think I've been hedging so much as maybe over-explaining my thoughts. When I'm sure, you'll know it.

I think I've probably been too focused on novice and Lewwyn. That's most likely scars from getting burned by Lewwyn last game I played. If it turns out he rolled scum, I want to make sure not to miss it and novice is always tough to pin a role because he's a bit enigmatic. I'm going to try and forget about them for a little while.

Sunrise is a fine lynch because he's not really playing but I just feel like maybe he's being propped up as a compromise candidate because we're all bored with voting for Qg and I think his lynch still gives us the most information. I dislike policy lynches in a place where we have real information but I'm not sure how much real information we have. Sunrise felt D1 scummy but since then has just felt like usual, super busy sunrise. That doesn't really mean anything. Do we want to lynch that guy or the guy half the town has thought scummy enough to vote multiple times at this point? I mean, if nothing else, if he wriggles off the hook we're just going to do this again tomorrow and I don't see how that's remotely productive.

1) he doesn't have the time (yet he's done several rereads already).
2) he's not going to go after novice or Lewwyn. What ? You asked for other opinions on the Lewwyn/Novice case, you got them and you WALK AWAY ? I just noted that Dtay also gave his opinion several times on details involving Novice and Lewwyn, even though I couldn't find a grand analysis post about them. So he got his answers. Time to lead a crusade dude, make a stand and lead the town to victory. At least make a stand and curse at the town for not following you. I'll be kind and not vote for you right at the start to give you a chance to do this.

Did you look at the timing of my post though ? 15mn after the Glum post I said I'd reread Gaspar because I really liked that post. 30mn later I had my post done. Before the Glum post Gaspar wasn't really dead meat, he had Lewwyn against him a little but he was also attacking novice, so I would have to discuss it with my scummates (who wouldn't necessarily be around) reread everything Gaspar said, write a post about it, all in 45mn. The timing is really tight. And my post would have to look good, even now you don't dare call it anything else than townie, that would take some time too. Even if I like my level of English it's not my mother tongue, I'm not that fast at writing stuff. This very post for example is probably going to take me an hour (I'm a slow writer even in French).

Here's his posts immediately following my reveal. It gave me confirmation at the time that he voted right for novice and didnt try and dispute me, but I also note now that he was doing a lot of questioning about the specifics of my role, like someone trying to figure out if he should start preparing a defense once novice eventually flipped town.

Did you put me and Gazglum in because you suspected us or because you thought we were town and wanted to narrow the information to "is novice scum" ?

Ok. novice

BTW BRick if you don't mind answering a few questions, you say you get positive results if any of the players have killed in the past two nights, but (I think ?) only one scum player makes the actual kill each night ? Like it was last game ? So it's just luck that novice was indeed one such player ? And what would you have done if it had come out negative ?

I kinda find making this theory odd. Why would you pull a 1-shot vig idea out of nowhere to try and explain how that might make me scum?

I can see some dangerous possibilities, but I'd like your opinion on the matter.

What possibilities do you see?

I think this setup could have a 1-shot vig (based on BRick's role), and scum would only need 1 more dead townie if he's on their side. Remember roles are mixed up so even though 1-shot vig is usually town it doesn't have to be.

I'm thrown against my will in a 33% setup for everyone else, 50% for us three (well us two because not the case for scum), of course I want to know where I stand ! I wanted to know if I was going to get attacks from you as well as (possibly) from novice, I also found it lucky that novice was the one who did the kill (and rightly so, he never killed anybody), don't you think it's a normal behavior ? Then the 1-shot vig is the main idea that came to my mind when I considered the possibility of a wolf trick. They needed one more kill after the novice lynch and that would have made sense. Apparently I was wrong. Or maybe it'll happen tonight and we've lost already. Except if Sunrise's ability is a 1-shot bulletproof, in which case he's our last chance. I'm pretty good at coming up with possibilities.

Oh hey look, here's Adrien slowly coming around to the idea of delaying the lynch a day as well. Don't call me out for being scum because I was fine delaying the novice lynch for a day when you did the exact same thing.

We could go with Gaspar->Novice if most people want that. Worse situation is if we split our votes and scum have the possibility of getting Lewwyn lynched. But their play today and tomorrow will be to solidify their last player to make it harder to spot him. Even if we get two scums in a row team scum has a winning chance.

So this is the results of my going back and re-reading AdrienIer in this new light, and by looking specifically with him interactions with Mattimeo and Gaspar Going back and considering that as fact, I feel like I'm coming up with more links that can explain a scum AdrianIer. The frustrating things is that while I know he's scum, I don't have as much of a flat out scum feeling from him as I had felt for Q and novice leading up to their lynches. But I do now know he's scum so some of that I have to chalk up to him playing a good game. Hopefully this will help some of the rest of you; I have a very bad feeling that we're probably at LyLo here and I feel like he's got the jump on me for the mislynch tomorrow to win the game.

I have the same feelings about you TBH. I can easily create a chain of events where you being scum fits, but I can't pinpoint to so many things. Even though I sure don't like your D1.

And you were the one who started attacking Q on real matters (not for attacking me), which made him a target for the next days. All on day 1...

I am assuming that you meant post #293. I still stand by that post, even if Q is town,because a player opening with that body of posts feel pretty suspicious. Making some really weird reasoning and getting angry when people call him weird. And also after that I pretty much pursued Q most of the next 2 days, because I thought that he was suspicious. I guess you're saying that being consistent and convinced is a sign I'm scum?

You've been pushing townies who got lynched all game long. The only lynches I actively helped make happen were the ones of Gaspar (by adding elements to Gazglum's case) and novice. Arguably Matt by voting for him at a crucial moment. The others I didn't push. You have a right to be convinced, but being convinced wrongly several times in a row is not a good sign.

Do people really think that 3 scum would be on Matt on D1 ? Actively making sure he was killed ?

It does seem somewhat unlikely. But you and Gaspar were both in the first half of the voters on him, and by the time a lynch for him appeared sure, you couldn't back off without garnering suspicion. That's less actively killing him, more continuing with the bus because it'd give you credit and getting off the bus would destroy your rep.

Also, this is the second time you've mentioned for sure that there are 4 scum. How do you know that again?

Am I going to have to repeat the argument like a broken record ? If it's just 3 scum then there's no tension and we're not a LyLo. If it's 4 we're at LyLo and we can't afford a mislynch. Guess what risk I'm not taking ?

Zak spent a lot of N1 talking about how he's going to go after BRick on D2. At the end of the night he dies. I already found a lot of scummy things and I haven't even finished rereading N1...

I put all of zak's relevant quotes from night 1 below in the spoiler. Yes he does make that weird thumbscrews comment, but I'd not say that he spent a ton of time talking about me, at least not compared to the other names he drops there too.

I still don't really have time to sit down with this and I think I'll save most of it for tomorrow when I have a keyboard and an office.

Briefly, though - town points for Gazglum and Rowain, and probably others once I get to reread. I do think Saul gets some for being a parallel contender.

Q, your vote/case against me seems to be based on some wrong facts. I wasn't voting for Mattimeo when you voted for me. My vote was on Fenn.

And yes, that vote was intended as a trust-building exercise with Saul. Which obviously failed miserably.

The most obvious scum suspect in all of this is Lewwyn, IMO. Pretty sure that he is scum once again, looking back on this day.

Tomorrow I will try to not focus so much on Saul because I've been doing enough of that for the time being. Gotta give him some time to catch scum before we mislynch him at the end, right?

After the reread, I agree with Rowain that Sunrise's interactions with Mattimeo (and vice versa) are scum 101. Not sure I agree that his content is so redeeming. So maybe I'll retract some of my town points. Lynching him may still be an overreaction, though. Two scum lurkers bussing each other from the start of day 1? Doesn't really sound like a winning strategy, but who knows. I tried to lynch the "busser" on day 2 of the last game and it didn't work out so great.

Q looks bad not so much for his misconstructed case against me, but for coming in very late and immediately concluding that the Mattimeo wagon must be bogus. If you're convinced that the town is heading off a cliff and in a rush to make a case for an alternative, factual errors might creep in. But where did that conviction come from? He wasn't aware of the deadline and missed his chance to influence the day 1 lynch - sure, that sucks - but why scramble to save Mattimeo? Smells a bit like scum thinking he can get away with it because "a townie would never do that".

At the other end of the scale, I think Jabbz was suspiciously quick to slap his vote down for Mattimeo when he returned. He also kept dropping the term "policy lynch" in a way that subtly undermined his own wagon. Maybe his "Zakalwe I'm totally down with lynching" post was there to give himself the option, but then he didn't quite dare to pull the trigger (after discussing with fellow scum, perhaps) and went for the maximum amount of towncred instead by attacking the late voters. Either way, it looks like a bit of a set-up when you first encourage people to vote for me, and then turn around and attack the players who took your bait.

I feel kind of sorry for Gaspar, who is being left out of the discussion. Strangely I still don't feel the urge to lynch him; not quite sure what to make of that.

I also think we have given Brick enough low-pressure time to hunt freely and enjoy the game, now. I have no qualms about turning the thumbscrews at this point.

Brick, you said yesterday that you don't function well as town when you're put on the defensive (paraphrasing), so I said we should ease up on the pressure and let you play. Now you've had a day, and I think that's enough, so I'm lifting the amnesty. I did like some of your posts yesterday but that's really beside the point. To be honest I dislike the quote digging that you're doing there because it looks like you may be trying to construct a contradiction.

Of course I get that it's a joke, Jabbz. Could still be a joke made for a reason. You were lowering the bar for yourself if you wanted to follow up with a serious vote later.

And may I remind you that you were the one who mislynched me.

I thought the timing of your Mattimeo vote was suspicious because it looked like you were in a rush to get it in, before even catching up properly. So maybe you were trying to get a share of the credit.

No but I see a pattern of people going after you dying in the night. Rowain was suspicious of you too.

Now back to the reread.

[AdrienIer]

I have the same feelings about you TBH. I can easily create a chain of events where you being scum fits, but I can't pinpoint to so many things. Even though I sure don't like your D1.

Also that's why I asked about the possible mistake from your role. It would have fit.

[AdrienIer]

I think people should post their thoughts on the matter before deadline. 30s before is fine, just give us your last words in case you die.
Going to eat before rereading actually.

[dtay]

(I'm focusing on Brick first because I think I spoke a lot more about Adrien yesterday, pretty much all of which applies here as my reads since novice flipped town)

Day 2 Brick reads and thoughts:

I just can't find things meaningful here. Gets on Qqqqqq, like a lot of people. Not super meaningful contributions. Falls into that "could be scum gliding by catagory" because very sparse contributions, except Brick has a uniquely err, understandable explanation for this one lol

Day 3 Brick reads and thoughts:

Early day 3 brick says

Lewwyn switches in the last hour onto a known villager both times, once of which at least is against confirmed scum. Both of those votes have been explained, one as not liking matt as a lynch (and agreeing with sauldicator) and another as not liking fenn claiming riiight before lynch. However I just noticed, Day 1 Lewwyn at t-6min said 'explain last 2 pages in 3 minutes plz', and at t-3min quoted a long pindisaul post from 100 posts ago about wanting to vote zakalwe and went ahead and made that last minute switch. He's already explained the thought process which makes sense but that timing and seemingly super quick turnaround from uninformed to finding and processing saul's post seems odd to me. (or maybe he's just really really quick at reading)

Jabbz got vacated prety quick day 2 for...... what again? I can't find him claiming or doing much else becuase quick angry 'when i die....' posts and people saying 'surely scum won't let two people die easily two days in a row'

novice seems to have stayed on his suspects each day long, not being as talkative as I'd think village novice would be. though him and Lewwyn are on each other so that's either a scum ploy or someone just a village not acting 'well' enough as i'd expect. tongue

AdrienIer put Fenn tied up there on the block, and has kinda been active without being active in his last few posts besides that if that makes sense. Seems to have mostly been meta stuff and some more slapfighting with novice. And his main reason for voting Fenn and tying him up with 90ish min to go is because he's not posting a ton and said he didn't feel decisive enough? The first part is funny cause Ad's game has felt similarly sparse (He's actually the sparsest poster except for Mattimeo and Sunrise!) And there's a big difference between how decisive you feel after 5/6 days of a info reveal heavy game vs. 2 days of this one.

I'd say AdrienIer for now, mainly because if Lewwyn/novice continue to fight with each other that should be enough to get better reads on each of them.

Ninja edit; heyoo doctorcator, that's also a good point on Adrien I think. And yeah also since the votes were 8 to 1 to 1 to 1 etc with an hour to go, probably isnt too likely that the last blitz was a coordinated plan or something,

Which is the first major brick contribution. All individually fine, but not like especially towny reads.

Later post says he hasn't thought much about gaspar. Falls in the "convenient for scum, but also reasonable" category that like everythign Adriena nd Brick have ever done is. I could really just write this sentence over and over again. this is why yesterday I concentrated most of my energy on analysis of the logic of the gambit and the gambit day itself, since it generated the most readable things that aren't just "err, maybe? could be either". That's be my advice for figuring out which way to vote, to concentrate on that.

There is 1 out and out suspicious thing I CAN find from these 3 days though - Brick your logic on why Adrien was in your "uhh, most towny I guess" catagory was pretty slim, notably:

I kept waffling on my third choice, but I did like your play yesterday, and your additional digging on Gasparilla before deadline sounded pretty town and earnest, so I included you as my third.

Which is referring to

In light of what Gazglum has said, here are more Gaspar thoughts.

During D2 and N2 he said this

(February 21st, 2015 12:12)Gaspar Wrote:
Ultimately, I don't really like voting on voting record on D2. Get us to a point where we've got 4-5 players out of the game and its easier to make those conclusions. I think the biggest thing you can see on D2 is changes in behavior now that we have some info/history. That's why I was skeptical on dtay. That's why I am skeptical on Lewwyn (along with the other reasons already stated) though I confess that Lewwyn makes a valid point in his rebuttal.

(February 22nd, 2015 16:07)Gaspar Wrote:
Anyway, who dies tonight should clear the picture slightly and at least personally I'll try and drive a little more next day.

He didn't really do much yesterday though (except NOT going after Lewwyn and Novice).

Then this happens :

(February 23rd, 2015 14:06)Gaspar Wrote:
I didn't promise a tour de force, btw. I don't know if I have that in me anymore. I just promised I'd try and be a bit more proactive.

I probably don't have time for a full-scale reread/reassess tonight but right now I feel more certain that either novice or Lewwyn is scum. I'd like it if some of the players with let's say, less than 5 RB WW games under their belt would chime in with opinions on the two of them. I wonder if their game reads different when you don't have a long-history muddled baseline on them.

So he backpedals on really driving the day, and asks people with less than 5 RB WW games to give opinions on Lewwyn and Novice. How many people would fit that criteria ? 2 or 3 right ? Dtay, myself, maybe Jabbz IDK if he's been around for long. Yet at the minute I make a case on Lewwyn this happens

(February 25th, 2015 06:01)Gaspar Wrote:
@Gazglum - Sorry I'm not living up to your expectations. Just not had quite the time to really drive the way I wanted. I don't think I've been hedging so much as maybe over-explaining my thoughts. When I'm sure, you'll know it.

I think I've probably been too focused on novice and Lewwyn. That's most likely scars from getting burned by Lewwyn last game I played. If it turns out he rolled scum, I want to make sure not to miss it and novice is always tough to pin a role because he's a bit enigmatic. I'm going to try and forget about them for a little while.

Sunrise is a fine lynch because he's not really playing but I just feel like maybe he's being propped up as a compromise candidate because we're all bored with voting for Qg and I think his lynch still gives us the most information. I dislike policy lynches in a place where we have real information but I'm not sure how much real information we have. Sunrise felt D1 scummy but since then has just felt like usual, super busy sunrise. That doesn't really mean anything. Do we want to lynch that guy or the guy half the town has thought scummy enough to vote multiple times at this point? I mean, if nothing else, if he wriggles off the hook we're just going to do this again tomorrow and I don't see how that's remotely productive.

1) he doesn't have the time (yet he's done several rereads already).
2) he's not going to go after novice or Lewwyn. What ? You asked for other opinions on the Lewwyn/Novice case, you got them and you WALK AWAY ? I just noted that Dtay also gave his opinion several times on details involving Novice and Lewwyn, even though I couldn't find a grand analysis post about them. So he got his answers. Time to lead a crusade dude, make a stand and lead the town to victory. At least make a stand and curse at the town for not following you. I'll be kind and not vote for you right at the start to give you a chance to do this.

In light of what Gazglum has said, here are more Gaspar thoughts.

During D2 and N2 he said this

Ultimately, I don't really like voting on voting record on D2. Get us to a point where we've got 4-5 players out of the game and its easier to make those conclusions. I think the biggest thing you can see on D2 is changes in behavior now that we have some info/history. That's why I was skeptical on dtay. That's why I am skeptical on Lewwyn (along with the other reasons already stated) though I confess that Lewwyn makes a valid point in his rebuttal.

Anyway, who dies tonight should clear the picture slightly and at least personally I'll try and drive a little more next day.

He didn't really do much yesterday though (except NOT going after Lewwyn and Novice).

Then this happens :

I didn't promise a tour de force, btw. I don't know if I have that in me anymore. I just promised I'd try and be a bit more proactive.

I probably don't have time for a full-scale reread/reassess tonight but right now I feel more certain that either novice or Lewwyn is scum. I'd like it if some of the players with let's say, less than 5 RB WW games under their belt would chime in with opinions on the two of them. I wonder if their game reads different when you don't have a long-history muddled baseline on them.

So he backpedals on really driving the day, and asks people with less than 5 RB WW games to give opinions on Lewwyn and Novice. How many people would fit that criteria ? 2 or 3 right ? Dtay, myself, maybe Jabbz IDK if he's been around for long. Yet at the minute I make a case on Lewwyn this happens

@Gazglum - Sorry I'm not living up to your expectations. Just not had quite the time to really drive the way I wanted. I don't think I've been hedging so much as maybe over-explaining my thoughts. When I'm sure, you'll know it.

I think I've probably been too focused on novice and Lewwyn. That's most likely scars from getting burned by Lewwyn last game I played. If it turns out he rolled scum, I want to make sure not to miss it and novice is always tough to pin a role because he's a bit enigmatic. I'm going to try and forget about them for a little while.

Sunrise is a fine lynch because he's not really playing but I just feel like maybe he's being propped up as a compromise candidate because we're all bored with voting for Qg and I think his lynch still gives us the most information. I dislike policy lynches in a place where we have real information but I'm not sure how much real information we have. Sunrise felt D1 scummy but since then has just felt like usual, super busy sunrise. That doesn't really mean anything. Do we want to lynch that guy or the guy half the town has thought scummy enough to vote multiple times at this point? I mean, if nothing else, if he wriggles off the hook we're just going to do this again tomorrow and I don't see how that's remotely productive.

1) he doesn't have the time (yet he's done several rereads already).
2) he's not going to go after novice or Lewwyn. What ? You asked for other opinions on the Lewwyn/Novice case, you got them and you WALK AWAY ? I just noted that Dtay also gave his opinion several times on details involving Novice and Lewwyn, even though I couldn't find a grand analysis post about them. So he got his answers. Time to lead a crusade dude, make a stand and lead the town to victory. At least make a stand and curse at the town for not following you. I'll be kind and not vote for you right at the start to give you a chance to do this.

Idk, it feels like a lot of a tournabout for one post. Enough to make you think Adrien is more towny? Sure, though Gaspar hadn't flipped yet so it isn't as towny as it seems now. Enough to make you think Adrien is your 2nd most towny option? that feels weird.

Sorry for long quote, but didn't want to snippet this one.

[dtay]

Stuff in middle should be quoted ergh

[dtay]

By which I mean, it is quoted below, I just copied it twice somehow? Once you get past "is referring to" just skip down to the quote

[dtay]

That brings us to Brick day 4, which I did spend a good bit of time on yesterday. A short summary:

Biggest town points for Brick in my mind is the weirdness of the decision to gambit in the context of a novice really likely to get lynched anyway. It's a trade for a slight increase in probability that novice get's lynched for a very very large increase in change that Brick get's lynched in retaliation. Hypothetical Gaspar->novice without the gambit ordering leaves us with this same number of people, far less determinism in which pairs must have scum in them, and to my mind a far higher chance of just screwing up and mislynching in the chaos and total lack of real reads we would have.

LIke, maybe it's just a Wifom gambit "They'd never do a gambit this stupid", and the adrien/brick scum pair variant that I'm ignoring (see earlier) makes some sense to me, but these seem like stretches and I'm more comfortable with voting against scum being deliberately stupid to psych me out. This is the majority of why I was on Adrien and not brick yesterday, besides this their games are just hard for me to weigh against each other for general sparseness of real content.

Think that's all I really had to get out before daybreak. Q's of whether I'm scum that adrien raised don't need addressing during the night, won't be relevant if I'm dead.

[Doctor Saul]

Because your D1 was better ? I just finished reading it and you started the Zak wagon with Saul, before dialing back when you realized how scummy it looked

Sooo it's scummy to get freaked out when an alternate lynch candidate suddenly gets 4 votes in the space of 5 minutes or so?

All the others didn't mind too much. All the dead townies stayed on Zak till the end.

Well whether they were town or not, I was spooked out by the quick switch and suspected that there was foul play afoot.

Maybe Saul is your partner in crime and the scum who engineered the whole potential switch in the first place.

If you believe Adrien was scum then IMO you have to believe Matt was actively bussed. He was tied with me at that point and the next two votes were AdrienIer and Gaspar both voting Mattimeo.

If you want to make the case Mattimeo was bussed to save me, I would argue that people were already coming off my wagon and talking about other potential people to vote for.

I think that it smells of a Brick plot. Extravagant plays are exciting for him.

Something else that smells of Brick: every player night killed had previously mentioned suspecting Brick. Yet that has never been brought up as an argument. I would have suspected scum to at least float that idea by now.

Still, this is contingent in AdrienIer being scum too. And I can see other scenarios where Adrienler Is scum takes with another wolf, though it doesn't feel as right to me. So Id Still say Adrien is the safer lynch.

Remember to make sure we vote together with who we think is town. and go with your gut!

[Commodore]

Deadline.

The peace of the morning was suddenly rent by awful sobs, snorts, and blubbering. Muriel Pindicator, the wife of Dr. Saul, ran weeping to the town hall crying loudly about her husband's maiming and death.

You all tried your best to comfort the woman, but she was insensible to any attempts at reason or consolation. In the end, seeing the widow he left, you have to conclude that Saul might be better off where he is now...

Doctor Saul has died. He was a loyal citizen of the town.

Alignment PM:

Citizen- You are a fine, upstanding citizen of the fair town of
Kingsport. Maybe. Well, you have a few hiccups from time to time. And
your family tree hides a few slightly knotty branches. And your dreams
have been strange and yet somehow more real of late. But you
definitely are on the side of living, breathing, and your preferred
geometries are strictly Euclidean. Something is up in your town,
something dark and weird, and you are fairly certain those responsible
lurk among you in the town hall. You win when all of the monsters are
dead. And by win, we mean you might be driven to the brink of
gibbering insanity, but you are reasonably certain that once the
monsters are all dead the entire world won't hurtle in the void this
month.

Role PM:

Looker into Blood Crazed Eyes (day reporter)-You may target someone at
day and by looking deep into their eyes you can see if they were awake
the night before. To be absolutely sure you have to keep checking
throughout the day (result given at nightfall).